Baltic Dry Index. 1139 +09 Brent Crude 79.41
Spot Gold 1873 US 2 Year Yield 4.19 -0.05
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 10/01/23 World 669,048,371
Deaths 6,716,202
In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative
tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results
far much less.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
The big news in today’s LIR lies in the last section.
Hypersonic missiles.
In the stock casinos, more of the same from 2022. Buy the
dip has become sell the rally.
Asia
shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; commods rise on China reopening
January
10, 2023 3:16 AM GMT
HONG KONG, Jan 10
(Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Tuesday following hawkish comments from two
U.S. Federal Reserve officials overnight with investors turning cautious ahead
of key inflation data, while China's reopening after COVID-19 restrictions
pushed commodities higher.
MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.02% in early
trade.
"The
main theme overnight was cautiousness in the equity space as stocks pared gains
after hawkish comments from two Fed officials. Raphael Bostic and Mary Daly
said the Fed would likely hike (interest) rates to above 5% and hold them there
for some time," Commerzbank said in a client note.
The S&P500
index began the week on a bullish tone with a more than 1.4% increase in early
U.S. trading on Monday before giving up all the gains to close a touch lower.
The
U.S. dollar and U.S. treasury yields remained under pressure, with the yield on
U.S. 10-year notes edging higher on Tuesday by 1.14 basis point to 3.5284%,
from 3.517% late on Monday. The dollar index fell 0.068%.
"Sentiment
may turn more cautious ahead of the U.S. CPI (consumer price index) release on
Thursday, dampening the 'risk on' trades initiated as a result of the optimism
around China's reopening," Mizuho Bank said in a note.
If U.S. consumer
price data confirms cooling seen in the most recent monthly jobs report,
Atlanta Fed Bank President Bostic said he would have to take a quarter point
increase "more seriously and to move in that direction". read more
China's
reopening buoyed sentiment with its stocks rising for a sixth consecutive
session on Monday, while Hong Kong shares jumped to a six-month high. However,
any optimism may be short-lived, said Trinh Nguyen, emerging Asia economist at
Natixis in Hong Kong.
"I think
what would temper a lot of this optimism coming up is really the reality of
this opening up. Even in Hong Kong, although it is officially open, the visa
issuance has been rather slow," Nguyen said.
China's
benchmark (.CSI300) dipped 0.21% on Tuesday while
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) fell 0.85%.
Copper
prices hit their highest in more than six months, driven higher by an improving
demand outlook after top consumer China's reopening, while zinc climbed 5% to
its highest since Dec. 15.
More
Asia
shares dip on hawkish Fed remarks; commods rise on China reopening | Reuters
European markets
head for lower open as investors gauge inflation outlook
UPDATED TUE, JAN 10 2023 12:38 AM
EST
European
markets are European markets are heading for a lower open as investors gear up
for more inflation data later this week, with U.S. consumer price data for
December due Thursday.
Overnight in Asia-Pacific
markets, stocks traded mixed after the Nasdaq
Composite extended gains for a second day on Wall Street.
Technology stocks helped the index skirt losses Monday as traders added to bets
that inflation may be easing. U.S.
stock futures were barely changed Monday evening.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings (cnbc.com)
Labor Unrest Spilling Into 2023 May Bog Down
Global Trade
By Ann Koh 9 January 2023 at 12:00 GMTLabor
unrest took an unusually heavy toll on ports around the world last year, and
the outlook for continued economic instability could bring even more upheaval
to global supply chains in 2023.
The number of protests and strikes affecting port
operations quadrupled last year to 38 incidences, according to Crisis24, a maritime
security consultancy. From trucker stoppages in South Korea to dock strikes in
Britain, worker shortages have prompted shipping lines to divert or delay
cargoes globally. (Read the full story here.)
Workers are feeling the impact of higher fuel and food
prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine while their wages have
remained stagnant. That’s emboldening employees to demand more from their
bosses.
Read More: Global Central Banks
Aren’t Declaring Victory on Inflation Yet
“Labor unrest is unlikely to decrease going into 2023, and
may in fact worsen in the likely event that global economic conditions do not
improve,” Crisis24 said in an e-mail.
Elevated costs of living have eased recently,
and this week will bring a key report on US consumer prices. The figures
slated to be released on Thursday are expected to stay consistent with a gradual step-down in
cost pressures.
More
Supply Chain Latest: Labor Unrest to Disrupt Global
Supply Chains - Bloomberg
Finally, did the Swiss Cuckoo clock just strike thirteen?
What does it mean, if anything, if it did?
Still, it might be best to add a little more physical gold and silver
here. Our dodgy central bankster’s Magic Money Tree experiment still seems out
of control.
Swiss central
bank posts biggest loss in its 116-year history
The Swiss National Bank on Monday reported a loss
of 132 billion Swiss francs ($143 billion) for the 2022 financial year, citing
preliminary figures.
It represents the biggest loss in
the central bank’s 116-year history and equates to roughly 18% of Switzerland’s projected gross domestic product of 744.5
billion Swiss francs. Its previous record loss was 23 billion francs in 2015.
As a result it will not make its usual payouts to the Swiss government and
member states, it said, with payments to its shareholders also set to be
affected. In 2021, the bank reported a 26 billion franc profit.
Of the losses, 131 billion francs came from its
foreign currency positions and 1 billion from its Swiss franc positions
amid strong gains made by the franc as investors flocked to the perceived safe
haven amid European volatility.
Since June 2022, the Swiss franc
has been trading above one euro, a level it had previously only briefly touched
in 2015 after scrapping its 1.20 peg to
the EU’s single currency. Switzerland has historically attempted to rein in the
strength of the franc because of its export-heavy economy, though analysts have argued Swiss businesses
have been able to remain competitive despite the rising franc due to euro zone
inflation.
In December, the Swiss National Bank raised
interest rates for the third time in 2022, to 1%. That was to
counter inflation of 3% — well below the euro zone’s inflation rate, which remains
above 10%.
The SNB was also impacted last year
by losses in its stock and bond portfolio amid the wider market downturn.
However, it gained 400 million francs through its gold holdings.
Karsten Junius, chief economist at Swiss bank J.Safra Sarasin, told CNBC
that the central bank’s losses would not alter its monetary policy and he
expected another 100 basis points of hikes, to 2%, this year.
More
Swiss
National Bank posts record $143 billion loss (cnbc.com)
Gold
prices steady as focus shifts to Powell's speech
January 10, 2023 3:51
AM GMT
Jan 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices were
steady on Tuesday, with cautious traders largely focusing on Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell's speech for insights into the U.S. central bank's
rate-hike trajectory.
Spot gold held its
ground at $1,872.79 per ounce, as of 0333 GMT. U.S. gold futures were flat at
$1,877.70.
Investors' focus is
on Powell's speech at a central bank conference later in the day. Market
participants will also scan the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data due on
Thursday for further clues on Fed's policy stance.
"Gold prices are hitting a key
resistance at the $1,875 level ... A hawkish tone in Fed Chair Powell's speech
later today could prompt some near-term profit-taking in gold," said IG
Market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.
"However,
market is on the watch for a downside surprise in the U.S. CPI to support the
less-hawkish rate-hike expectations, which could translate to upside for gold
prices."
Elevated interest
rates dull gold's appeal as an inflation hedge and raise the opportunity cost
of holding the non-yielding asset.
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly on Monday said that either a
50 basis point or a 25 bps rate hike was a possibility in the upcoming Fed
meeting, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic commented that it was
appropriate to be 'more cautious' in calibrating rates, with rates possibly
staying higher into 2024. FEDWATCH/
The market consensus
of a mild recession appears to be playing out, but with a nod to a more severe
downturn could continue to be gold positive, the World Gold Council said.
Gold
prices steady as focus shifts to Powell's speech | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
U.S.
banks get ready for shrinking profits and recession
January 10, 2023 5:11
AM GMT
NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - U.S.
banking giants are forecast to report lower fourth quarter profits this week as
lenders stockpile rainy-day funds to prepare for an economic slowdown that is
battering investment banking.
Four American
banking giants -- JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N) and
Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) -- will report earnings on
Friday.
Along with Morgan
Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N),
they are the six largest lenders expected to amass a combined $5.7 billion in
reserves to prepare for soured loans, according to average projections by
Refinitiv. That is more than double the $2.37 billion set aside a year earlier.
"With most U.S. economists
forecasting either a recession or significant slowdown this year, banks will
likely incorporate a more severe economic outlook," said Morgan Stanley
analysts led by Betsy Graseck in a note.
The Federal Reserve
is raising interest rates aggressively in
an effort to tame inflation near its highest in decades. Rising prices and
higher borrowing costs have prompted consumers and businesses to curb their spending, and
since banks serve as economic middlemen, their profits decline when activity
slows.
The
six banks are also expected to report an average 17% drop in net profit in the
fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to preliminary analysts'
estimates from Refintiv.
More
U.S.
banks get ready for shrinking profits and recession | Reuters
Exclusive: UK firms
stop hiring and mull layoffs as recession takes hold
January 9
2023
Layoffs are on course to climb, driven by
businesses cutting costs amid what risks being the longest UK recession in memory,
exclusive research shared with City A.M. indicates.
Firms are planning to pause hiring or
even sack workers to protect their finances from a slump in spending sparked by
the cost of living crisis.
Nearly four in five companies plan to
keep staffing levels unchanged in 2023, according to figures compiled for City
A.M. by small business lender Iwoca, suggesting uncertainty over the
pending economic slump is set to freeze the jobs market.
The figures add to the
growing list of recent surveys signalling the country is in the early stages of
a drawn out slowdown.
Fresh GDP figures out this
Friday are expected to show the economy contracted around 0.3 per cent in
November, meaning the country almost certainly met the technical recession
definition – two back-to-back quarters of negative growth – in the final three
months of 2022.
Separate research by consultancy BDO
reinforced Iwoca’s numbers, with its employment index in December tumbling to
its lowest level since January 2022, when the UK was winding down Covid-related
restrictions.
Hiring plans are also the bleakest
since the final months of 2020, a period in which most Britain was locked down
to tame the rise in Covid-19 cases.
“Inflation and supply chain pressures
are clearly being felt across the board, as employers pause recruitment plans
and consider redundancies to manage rising costs,” Kaley Crossthwaite, partner
at BDO, said.
The Bank of England has warned the UK
recession could be the longest in a century, but only if it raises interest
rates above five per cent, which it is unlikely to do.
The most likely outcome based on City
economists’ projections is for the slump to last the whole of 2023, which would
still be relatively long. However, the around two per cent GDP hit would make
it a shallower recession by comparison.
BDO’s output index ticked up slightly
to 91.65, but the reading is still below the 95 point threshold that separates
growth and contraction, indicating activity has settled at a lower level.
Its inflation index did cool for the
second month in a row to 117.91, chiming with economists predictions that the
rate of price increases has passed its peak and will fall throughout 2023.
Exclusive: UK
firms stop hiring and mull layoffs as recession takes hold (msn.com)
Goldman Sachs will
lay off up to 3,200 workers this week
January 9 2023
Goldman Sachs will lay off as
many as 3,200 employees this week as an uncertain economic and market climate
pushes the bank to hunt for cost savings, according to a person familiar with the matter.
More than a third of the job
cuts are expected to be from the firm’s trading and banking units, the person
said. Like its Wall Street rivals, Goldman Sachs has been hit by a slump in
global dealmaking activity as fewer companies merge or seek to raise capital.
Hiring for roles in other
areas will continue and the new analyst class will start later this year as
planned, the person added added. News of the layoffs was first reported by Bloomberg.
The bank declined to comment.
Goldman Sachs (GS) had 49,100 employees at the end of the third
quarter. It added thousands of jobs to its headcount during the pandemic
recovery as markets and investment banking boomed.
But the mood on Wall Street
has deteriorated since the Federal Reserve and other central banks started
aggressively raising borrowing costs in a bid to rein in inflation. Companies
are looking to conserve cash in case interest rate hikes trigger a global
recession, and the appetite for mergers and acquisitions and initial public
offerings has dried up.
That’s
hurt companies like Goldman Sachs that advise on these transactions. The bank’s
revenue during the third quarter of 2022 dropped 12% from a year ago.
Investment banking revenue plunged 57% year-over-year.
In October, the firm
announced that it would streamline operations, combining its trading and investment banking divisions
and folding its digital consumer bank Marcus into its wealth management
business.
Shares of Goldman Sachs were
up less than 1% in premarket trading Monday. Last year, they fell about 10%,
outperforming the broader S&P 500 index.
The layoffs come as blue-chip
companies gear up for what’s expected to be a tumultuous year. Amazon (AMZN) said earlier this month that it plans to lay
off more than 18,000 employees. Other banks, including Morgan Stanley (MS), have also laid off staff as the business environment
has soured.
Goldman Sachs will lay off up to 3,200 workers this
week (msn.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Four distinct subtypes of long COVID defined in
machine learning study
Rich Haridy January 08, 2023
Using machine learning to track symptom clusters in around
35,000 COVID patients, researchers have identified four distinct types of long
COVID. The findings suggest long COVID is a diverse disease with a wide variety
of clinical manifestations.
The new research looked at two large cohorts of patients, all
with at least one persistent symptom lasting between 30 and 180 days following
a SARS-CoV-2 infection. A machine learning algorithm sorted through the mass of
data, covering around 137 different lingering symptoms.
In a new study published in Nature Medicine, the researchers
describe "four subphenotypes dominated by new conditions of the cardiac
and renal systems (Subphenotype 1); respiratory system, sleep and anxiety problems
(Subphenotype 2); musculoskeletal and nervous systems (Subphenotype 3); and
digestive and respiratory systems (Subphenotype 4)."
The first subtype was found to be the most common, accounting for 34% of
long COVID patients in the dataset. This subtype included patients with heart
and kidney problems, anemia and circulatory disorders.
This manifestation of long COVID was more common in older patients (with
an average age of 65) and those suffering from severe COVID. Interestingly,
this subtype of long COVID was most prominent in those infected during the very
first wave of disease across the first half of 2020.
The second subtype identified, almost as common as the first, accounted
for 33% of all cases. This appearance of long COVID was dominated by lingering
respiratory symptoms, chest pain, anxiety, headache and insomnia.
Unlike the first subtype, this second type of long COVID was associated
with a more mild acute disease. It also appeared more common in patients
infected later in the pandemic (between November 2020 and November 2021).
The third subtype (23% of patients) was mostly linked with
musculoskeletal and nervous system disorders, including nerve pain and
headache. This subtype was most commonly seen in patients with preexisting
autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and asthma.
The final subtype was the rarest, only seen in 10% of patients. It was
dominated by gastrointestinal disorders, including stomach pain, nausea and gut
problems. This final subtype was linked to the most mild acute disease.
More
Four distinct
subtypes of long COVID defined in machine learning study (newatlas.com)
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Something different today. Today
hypersonic missiles. Approx. 16 minutes.
Why
Hypersonic Missiles DON'T Make Sense
Why
Hypersonic Missiles DON'T Make Sense - YouTube
If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people on a level with dentists, that would be splendid.
John Maynard Keynes.
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