Baltic Dry Index. 1250 -265 Brent Crude 81.64
Spot Gold 1846 US 2 Year Yield 4.40 -0.01
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,103
Coronavirus Cases 04/01/23 World 666,040,100
Deaths 6,701,329
"On
the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the
time.”
George
Orwell.
A new
year but the same old story. Inflation, rising interest rates, a new global
recession arriving, yet more scandal and missing money in cryptoland.
Oh well, maybe today will bring some stability.
Hong Kong stocks
rise 2%, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific as investors look ahead to Fed
minutes
UPDATED TUE, JAN 3 2023 11:32 PM
EST
Hong Kong shares led gains in the Asia-Pacific
as investors looked ahead to the Fed’s meeting minutes, watching for signs of
more interest rate hikes.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
2.16%, with the Hang Seng Tech index gaining more than 3%. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was
marginally higher while the Shenzhen
Component was down 0.3%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
1.46%, and South Korea’s Kospi rose
1.14%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.67%.
The Nikkei
225 in Japan fell 1.42% and the Topix declined 1.02% as the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing
manager’s index for December fell further into contraction
territory.
Investors are looking ahead to
the release of the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as
JOLTS, as well as the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting set to come
out in the afternoon stateside.
Stocks on Wall Street closed
lower after giving up earlier gains on concerns over rising
rates and high inflation – with Tesla hitting its lowest level since August
2020, following disappointing fourth-quarter deliveries and Apple also falling
on reports that it will cut production due to weak demand.
Asia-Pacific
markets, Fed, Wall Street, Apple, Tesla, Japan PMI (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for positive open as investors await Fed minutes
UPDATED WED, JAN 4 2023 12:28 AM EST
European markets are heading for a positive open
on Wednesday, with investors looking ahead to the release of more U.S. economic
data, plus the latest minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent
policy meeting.
Global markets will
be looking for insight into the central bank’s thought process when it comes to
interest rates and the state of health of the U.S. economy.
In addition, the
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, and ISM
manufacturing data will be released stateside.
In Europe Tuesday,
markets closed higher, buoyed after Germany published lower-than-expected
inflation figures for December, down to 9.6% year on year. Inflation figures
from France are due on Wednesday.
European
markets head for positive open as investors await Fed minutes (cnbc.com)
Stock futures
inch lower after rocky start to 2023
UPDATED WED, JAN 4 2023 12:21 AM EST
Stock futures inched higher Tuesday evening
after Wall
Street started 2023 on a sour note.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 0.04%, or 14 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100
futures traded flat rose 0.08% and 0.2%, respectively.
The overnight moves followed a
down session for stocks as rising rate concerns, high inflation and
recessionary fears crushed hopes that Wall Street could kick off the new year
on a positive note.
During regular trading Tuesday,
the Nasdaq shed 0.76%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500
dipped 0.03% and 0.4%, respectively. Shares of Tesla plummeted more than 12% on delivery
numbers that missed expectations, while Apple
fell 3.7% on reports of production cuts.
Six of the 11 major S&P
sectors closed lower, led to the downside by energy. The sector was the best
performer in 2022 as oil prices boosted energy stocks. Communication services
gained about 1.4%, led to the upside by Meta Platforms and Walt Disney.
“U.S. stocks were unable to hold
onto earlier gains as restrictive policy and recession fears remained front and
center for investors,” wrote Oanda’s senior market analyst Ed Moya in a note to
clients Tuesday. “Discount buying triggered another bear market rebound that
didn’t last long at all.”
Many investors have been hoping the market would
bounce back after the major
averages notched their worst year since 2008. The Federal Reserve
and its tightening plan hang over markets in the near term, along with fears of
a looming recession.
Investors will gain more insight
into what Fed members are thinking on Wednesday afternoon as minutes from the
central bank’s latest policy meeting are released. Earlier in the day, the Job
Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, and ISM manufacturing data are
due out.
Friday’s December jobs report
also will be closely watched as it is the last read on the labor market before
the Fed meeting in February.
“It is too early to start betting
on a Fed pivot this year and that should make this difficult environment for
stocks,” Moya said.
Stock
futures inch lower after rocky start to 2023 (cnbc.com)
Finally,
in cryptoland, is anyone telling the truth? Does anyone even know the truth?
Sam Bankman-Fried
pleads not guilty to federal fraud charges in New York
PUBLISHED TUE, JAN 3 2023 2:06 PM EST
Sam Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty in New York
federal court Tuesday to eight charges related to the collapse of his former
crypto exchange FTX and
hedge fund Alameda Research.
The onetime crypto billionaire was indicted on
charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and securities fraud, individual
charges of securities fraud and wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to
avoid campaign finance regulations.
The trial will begin on Oct. 2.
Bankman-Fried arrived outside the
courthouse in a black SUV and was swarmed with cameras from the moment his
vehicle arrived. The scrum grew so thick that Bankman-Fried’s mother was unable
to exit the vehicle, falling onto the wet pavement as cameras scrambled to
catch a glimpse of her son.
---- Federal prosecutor Danielle Sassoon told the court that
Bankman-Fried had worked with foreign regulators to transfer assets that FTX’s
U.S. management had been attempting to recover through the Chapter 11
bankruptcy process.
Regulators in the Bahamas and FTX’s
U.S. lawyers have been fighting for weeks in Delaware bankruptcy court over
hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars worth of cryptocurrency.
FTX’s attorneys insist that Bahamian regulators have illicitly transferred
hundreds of millions of dollars, and that Bankman-Fried assisted them.
Bahamian regulators say that local
laws give them jurisdiction over those assets, and dispute the validity of the
U.S. Chapter 11 proceedings.
Federal prosecutors appear to agree
with FTX’s U.S. attorneys. Sassoon asked Kaplan to impose a new restriction
barring Bankman-Fried from transferring or accessing FTX customer assets. The
judge approved that motion as well.
Bankman-Fried returned
to the U.S. from the Bahamas on Dec. 21, and the next day was
released on a $250 million recognizance bond, secured by his family home in
California.
Federal prosecutors also announced
the launch of a new task force to recover victim assets as part of an ongoing
investigation into Bankman-Fried and the collapse of FTX.
“The Southern District of New York
is working around the clock to respond to the implosion of FTX,” U.S. Attorney
Damian Williams said in a statement Tuesday.
The U.S. attorney’s office for the
SDNY had argued that Bankman-Fried used $8
billion worth of customer assets for extravagant
real estate purchases and vanity
projects, including stadium naming rights and millions
in political donations.
More
Sam
Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to fraud charges in New York (cnbc.com)
Bahamas
regulator sticks to estimate of FTX assets
January
3, 20234:37 AM GMT
Jan 2 (Reuters) - The Securities
Commission of the Bahamas (SCB) rebuffed on Monday FTX's claims about the
digital assets of its Bahamas unit held by the regulator, saying the debtors of
the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange had "incomplete information".
Last month, the SCB said it had seized more
than $3.5 billion in cryptocurrency from the unit, FTX Digital Markets, which
it was holding for future repayment to customers and other creditors.
FTX disputed SCB's
calculations, saying its digital assets seized in November were worth just $296
million and not $3.5 billion.
"Such public assertions by the
Chapter 11 debtors were
based on incomplete information,"
the regulator said in a statement on
Monday.
There was no immediate response from
FTX, which has been at odds with Bahamian officials since filing for bankruptcy
protection on Nov. 11.
Bahamas officials have sought access to
FTX's records to help liquidate FTX Digital Markets, but the company's U.S.
bankruptcy team said it did not trust them with the information.
FTX's founder and former chief
executive, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested on fraud charges and is expected to
be arraigned on
Tuesday before U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan federal court.
The firm's new chief executive, John
Ray, has said the exchange lost $8
billion of customer money.
Bahamas regulator sticks to estimate of FTX assets |
Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
2023
Spells Big Trouble for US Economy, Majority of Big Banks Warn: Reports
By January 2, 2023
The vast majority of economists at 23 large financial
institutions surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predict that the United States
will fall into the grips of a recession in 2023 and millions of Americans will lose
their jobs.
More than two-thirds of the nearly two dozen
institutions—which include trading firms and investment banks that do business
directly with the Federal Reserve—expect the U.S. economy to contract in 2023, according to the report.
Two of the 23 institutions expect the recession to
come later—in 2024—while the following five believe the United States will
manage to avoid a downturn altogether: Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC,
JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley.
The institutions that predict a coming recession
expect consumer spending to weaken as Americans deplete their savings and an
aggressive Fed drives up borrowing costs, and as banks’ lending standards get
tighter.
Soaring U.S. inflation, which in June 2022 hit a
recent peak of 9 percent in annual terms, as
measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has forced the Fed to
raise rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s in a desperate bid to relieve
price pressures.
The aggressive rate hikes have so far had only a
limited impact, with November’s CPI data showing inflation running at 7.1
percent.
An alternative measure of inflation that uses the same
methodology the U.S. government used to measure CPI in the 1980s puts
November’s inflation figure at a much higher 15.23 percent.
Even though inflation has eased somewhat from its
June peak, it’s far from enough for the Fed to hit the brakes on interest
rates, which were brought up quickly from near zero at the start of the COVID
pandemic to the current range of between 4.24–4.5 percent.
Frustrated by how sticky high inflation has remained
despite the rate hikes, Fed officials have pledged to keep raising rates and
keep them high until inflation recedes to around the Fed’s 2 percent target, as
measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
Core PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of
food and energy, in November came in at 4.7 percent, more than twice the Fed’s
target.
More
2023 Spells Big
Trouble for US Economy, Majority of Big Banks Warn: Reports (theepochtimes.com)
Manhattan
apartment sales plunge in fourth quarter as brokers fear a frozen market
Manhattan apartment
sales fell by 29% in the fourth quarter, sparking fears of a frozen market in
which buyers and sellers stay on the sidelines due to economic and rate fears.
There were 2,546
sales in the quarter, down from 3,560 last year, according to a report from
Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The decline was the largest since the third
quarter of 2020, during the depths of the pandemic.
Prices also declined
for the first time since early 2020, with the median price down 5.5%.
The declines in both
sales and prices mark the end of the roaring comeback in Manhattan real estate
after the worst days of the pandemic and raise fears of continuing weakness
into the new year. Rising interest rates, a weaker economy and a falling stock
market, which has an outsized impact on Manhattan real estate, are all likely
to weigh on the market this year.
Analysts say their
big worry is a prolonged standoff between buyers and sellers — with sellers
unwilling to list amidst falling prices and buyers pausing their searches until
prices fall further.
More
Manhattan
apartment sales plunge in Q4, brokers fear frozen market (cnbc.com)
Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
The truth about the latest vaccines. Approx 7
minutes.
Bury
the lead: NEW CLAIMS about COVID VAX failure
Bury
the lead: NEW CLAIMS about COVID VAX failure - YouTube
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
The
crystal growers behind the graphene revolution
Takashi
Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe create high-quality crystals that offer the
perfect substrate on which to tailor-make two-dimensional materials with
amazing electronic properties. They tell New Scientist how they grow their
world-renowned crystals
3 January 2023
FOR years, Takashi Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe were
like most other physicists, labouring away relatively unknown to the wider
world. The pair studied crystals in their lab at the National Institute for Materials
Science near Tokyo, Japan.
Then, almost
overnight, they hit the big time. They had been growing a cubic crystal form of
boron nitride that has the same three-dimensional structure as diamond. One
day, out of curiosity, they investigated another type of boron nitride crystal
that sometimes grew as a by-product in their lab – a flat, two-dimensional
form.
With it,
they inadvertently struck gold. That’s because, around this time, another 2D
substance was starting to make waves. Graphene, formed of a sheet of carbon just a single atom
thick, was dubbed a “wonder material” due to it being a great conductor,
stronger than diamond and lighter than paper. An influx of graphene research
began, trying to make the most of this stuff.
The
problem was, to study graphene, you need something very flat with just the
right properties on which to mount the wafer thin sheets. The solution, it
turned out, was the very by-product crystals Taniguchi and Watanabe had been
investigating.
Their
high-purity 2D boron nitride crystals are, by wide consensus, the world’s best.
Today, what was once a waste material is supplied to everyone in the graphene
field to enable groundbreaking research and the two scientists are co-authors
of more than 1000 studies. They told New Scientist how they honed their craft, found
themselves at the centre of a materials revolution and became the world’s most
in-demand crystal growers.
More
Takashi
Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe interview: A graphene revolution | New Scientist
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, failed ex-president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.
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