Wednesday, 4 January 2023

A Rocky Start. SBF Pleads Not Guilty.

Baltic Dry Index. 1250 -265      Brent Crude 81.64

Spot Gold 1846            US 2 Year Yield 4.40 -0.01

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 04/01/23 World 666,040,100

Deaths 6,701,329

"On the whole human beings want to be good, but not too good, and not quite all the time.”

George Orwell.

A new year but the same old story. Inflation, rising interest rates, a new global recession arriving, yet more scandal and missing money in cryptoland.

Oh well, maybe today will bring some stability.

Hong Kong stocks rise 2%, leading gains in the Asia-Pacific as investors look ahead to Fed minutes

UPDATED TUE, JAN 3 2023 11:32 PM EST

Hong Kong shares led gains in the Asia-Pacific as investors looked ahead to the Fed’s meeting minutes, watching for signs of more interest rate hikes.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 2.16%, with the Hang Seng Tech index gaining more than 3%. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was marginally higher while the Shenzhen Component was down 0.3%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.46%, and South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.14%, while the Kosdaq rose 0.67%.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell 1.42% and the Topix declined 1.02% as the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing manager’s index for December fell further into contraction territory.

Investors are looking ahead to the release of the U.S. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, as well as the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting set to come out in the afternoon stateside.

Stocks on Wall Street closed lower after giving up earlier gains on concerns over rising rates and high inflation – with Tesla hitting its lowest level since August 2020, following disappointing fourth-quarter deliveries and Apple also falling on reports that it will cut production due to weak demand.

Asia-Pacific markets, Fed, Wall Street, Apple, Tesla, Japan PMI (cnbc.com)

European markets head for positive open as investors await Fed minutes

UPDATED WED, JAN 4 2023 12:28 AM EST

European markets are heading for a positive open on Wednesday, with investors looking ahead to the release of more U.S. economic data, plus the latest minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting.

Global markets will be looking for insight into the central bank’s thought process when it comes to interest rates and the state of health of the U.S. economy.

In addition, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, better known as JOLTS, and ISM manufacturing data will be released stateside.

In Europe Tuesday, markets closed higher, buoyed after Germany published lower-than-expected inflation figures for December, down to 9.6% year on year. Inflation figures from France are due on Wednesday.

European markets head for positive open as investors await Fed minutes (cnbc.com)

Stock futures inch lower after rocky start to 2023

UPDATED WED, JAN 4 2023 12:21 AM EST

Stock futures inched higher Tuesday evening after Wall Street started 2023 on a sour note.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%, or 14 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat rose 0.08% and 0.2%, respectively.

The overnight moves followed a down session for stocks as rising rate concerns, high inflation and recessionary fears crushed hopes that Wall Street could kick off the new year on a positive note.

During regular trading Tuesday, the Nasdaq shed 0.76%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 dipped 0.03% and 0.4%, respectively. Shares of Tesla plummeted more than 12% on delivery numbers that missed expectations, while Apple fell 3.7% on reports of production cuts.

Six of the 11 major S&P sectors closed lower, led to the downside by energy. The sector was the best performer in 2022 as oil prices boosted energy stocks. Communication services gained about 1.4%, led to the upside by Meta Platforms and Walt Disney.

“U.S. stocks were unable to hold onto earlier gains as restrictive policy and recession fears remained front and center for investors,” wrote Oanda’s senior market analyst Ed Moya in a note to clients Tuesday. “Discount buying triggered another bear market rebound that didn’t last long at all.”

Many investors have been hoping the market would bounce back after the major averages notched their worst year since 2008. The Federal Reserve and its tightening plan hang over markets in the near term, along with fears of a looming recession.

Investors will gain more insight into what Fed members are thinking on Wednesday afternoon as minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting are released. Earlier in the day, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, and ISM manufacturing data are due out.

Friday’s December jobs report also will be closely watched as it is the last read on the labor market before the Fed meeting in February.

“It is too early to start betting on a Fed pivot this year and that should make this difficult environment for stocks,” Moya said.

Stock futures inch lower after rocky start to 2023 (cnbc.com)

Finally, in cryptoland, is anyone telling the truth? Does anyone even know the truth?

Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to federal fraud charges in New York

PUBLISHED TUE, JAN 3 2023 2:06 PM EST

Sam Bankman-Fried pleaded not guilty in New York federal court Tuesday to eight charges related to the collapse of his former crypto exchange FTX and hedge fund Alameda Research.

The onetime crypto billionaire was indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and securities fraud, individual charges of securities fraud and wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to avoid campaign finance regulations.

The trial will begin on Oct. 2.

Bankman-Fried arrived outside the courthouse in a black SUV and was swarmed with cameras from the moment his vehicle arrived. The scrum grew so thick that Bankman-Fried’s mother was unable to exit the vehicle, falling onto the wet pavement as cameras scrambled to catch a glimpse of her son.

---- Federal prosecutor Danielle Sassoon told the court that Bankman-Fried had worked with foreign regulators to transfer assets that FTX’s U.S. management had been attempting to recover through the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process.

Regulators in the Bahamas and FTX’s U.S. lawyers have been fighting for weeks in Delaware bankruptcy court over hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars worth of cryptocurrency. FTX’s attorneys insist that Bahamian regulators have illicitly transferred hundreds of millions of dollars, and that Bankman-Fried assisted them.

Bahamian regulators say that local laws give them jurisdiction over those assets, and dispute the validity of the U.S. Chapter 11 proceedings.

Federal prosecutors appear to agree with FTX’s U.S. attorneys. Sassoon asked Kaplan to impose a new restriction barring Bankman-Fried from transferring or accessing FTX customer assets. The judge approved that motion as well.

Bankman-Fried returned to the U.S. from the Bahamas on Dec. 21, and the next day was released on a $250 million recognizance bond, secured by his family home in California.

Federal prosecutors also announced the launch of a new task force to recover victim assets as part of an ongoing investigation into Bankman-Fried and the collapse of FTX.

“The Southern District of New York is working around the clock to respond to the implosion of FTX,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a statement Tuesday.

The U.S. attorney’s office for the SDNY had argued that Bankman-Fried used $8 billion worth of customer assets for extravagant real estate purchases and vanity projects, including stadium naming rights and millions in political donations.

More

Sam Bankman-Fried pleads not guilty to fraud charges in New York (cnbc.com)

Bahamas regulator sticks to estimate of FTX assets

Jan 2 (Reuters) - The Securities Commission of the Bahamas (SCB) rebuffed on Monday FTX's claims about the digital assets of its Bahamas unit held by the regulator, saying the debtors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange had "incomplete information".

Last month, the SCB said it had seized more than $3.5 billion in cryptocurrency from the unit, FTX Digital Markets, which it was holding for future repayment to customers and other creditors.

FTX disputed SCB's calculations, saying its digital assets seized in November were worth just $296 million and not $3.5 billion.

"Such public assertions by the Chapter 11 debtors were

based on incomplete information," the regulator said in a statement on Monday.

There was no immediate response from FTX, which has been at odds with Bahamian officials since filing for bankruptcy protection on Nov. 11.

Bahamas officials have sought access to FTX's records to help liquidate FTX Digital Markets, but the company's U.S. bankruptcy team said it did not trust them with the information.

FTX's founder and former chief executive, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested on fraud charges and is expected to be arraigned on Tuesday before U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan in Manhattan federal court.

The firm's new chief executive, John Ray, has said the exchange lost $8 billion of customer money.

Bahamas regulator sticks to estimate of FTX assets | Reuters

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

2023 Spells Big Trouble for US Economy, Majority of Big Banks Warn: Reports

By Tom Ozimek January 2, 2023

The vast majority of economists at 23 large financial institutions surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predict that the United States will fall into the grips of a recession in 2023 and millions of Americans will lose their jobs.

More than two-thirds of the nearly two dozen institutions—which include trading firms and investment banks that do business directly with the Federal Reserve—expect the U.S. economy to contract in 2023, according to the report.

Two of the 23 institutions expect the recession to come later—in 2024—while the following five believe the United States will manage to avoid a downturn altogether: Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley.

The institutions that predict a coming recession expect consumer spending to weaken as Americans deplete their savings and an aggressive Fed drives up borrowing costs, and as banks’ lending standards get tighter.

Soaring U.S. inflation, which in June 2022 hit a recent peak of 9 percent in annual terms, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has forced the Fed to raise rates at its fastest pace since the 1980s in a desperate bid to relieve price pressures.

The aggressive rate hikes have so far had only a limited impact, with November’s CPI data showing inflation running at 7.1 percent.

An alternative measure of inflation that uses the same methodology the U.S. government used to measure CPI in the 1980s puts November’s inflation figure at a much higher 15.23 percent.

Even though inflation has eased somewhat from its June peak, it’s far from enough for the Fed to hit the brakes on interest rates, which were brought up quickly from near zero at the start of the COVID pandemic to the current range of between 4.24–4.5 percent.

Frustrated by how sticky high inflation has remained despite the rate hikes, Fed officials have pledged to keep raising rates and keep them high until inflation recedes to around the Fed’s 2 percent target, as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Core PCE, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, in November came in at 4.7 percent, more than twice the Fed’s target.

More

2023 Spells Big Trouble for US Economy, Majority of Big Banks Warn: Reports (theepochtimes.com)

Manhattan apartment sales plunge in fourth quarter as brokers fear a frozen market

Manhattan apartment sales fell by 29% in the fourth quarter, sparking fears of a frozen market in which buyers and sellers stay on the sidelines due to economic and rate fears.

There were 2,546 sales in the quarter, down from 3,560 last year, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The decline was the largest since the third quarter of 2020, during the depths of the pandemic.

Prices also declined for the first time since early 2020, with the median price down 5.5%.

The declines in both sales and prices mark the end of the roaring comeback in Manhattan real estate after the worst days of the pandemic and raise fears of continuing weakness into the new year. Rising interest rates, a weaker economy and a falling stock market, which has an outsized impact on Manhattan real estate, are all likely to weigh on the market this year.

Analysts say their big worry is a prolonged standoff between buyers and sellers — with sellers unwilling to list amidst falling prices and buyers pausing their searches until prices fall further.

More

Manhattan apartment sales plunge in Q4, brokers fear frozen market (cnbc.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle


Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

The truth about the latest vaccines. Approx 7 minutes.

Bury the lead: NEW CLAIMS about COVID VAX failure

Bury the lead: NEW CLAIMS about COVID VAX failure - YouTube

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

The crystal growers behind the graphene revolution

Takashi Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe create high-quality crystals that offer the perfect substrate on which to tailor-make two-dimensional materials with amazing electronic properties. They tell New Scientist how they grow their world-renowned crystals

3 January 2023

FOR years, Takashi Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe were like most other physicists, labouring away relatively unknown to the wider world. The pair studied crystals in their lab at the National Institute for Materials Science near Tokyo, Japan.

Then, almost overnight, they hit the big time. They had been growing a cubic crystal form of boron nitride that has the same three-dimensional structure as diamond. One day, out of curiosity, they investigated another type of boron nitride crystal that sometimes grew as a by-product in their lab – a flat, two-dimensional form.

With it, they inadvertently struck gold. That’s because, around this time, another 2D substance was starting to make waves. Graphene, formed of a sheet of carbon just a single atom thick, was dubbed a “wonder material” due to it being a great conductor, stronger than diamond and lighter than paper. An influx of graphene research began, trying to make the most of this stuff.

The problem was, to study graphene, you need something very flat with just the right properties on which to mount the wafer thin sheets. The solution, it turned out, was the very by-product crystals Taniguchi and Watanabe had been investigating.

Their high-purity 2D boron nitride crystals are, by wide consensus, the world’s best. Today, what was once a waste material is supplied to everyone in the graphene field to enable groundbreaking research and the two scientists are co-authors of more than 1000 studies. They told New Scientist how they honed their craft, found themselves at the centre of a materials revolution and became the world’s most in-demand crystal growers.

More

Takashi Taniguchi and Kenji Watanabe interview: A graphene revolution | New Scientist

“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”

Jean-Claude Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, failed ex-president of the European Commission. Scotch connoisseur.

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