Friday 20 January 2023

The Year Of The Rabbit. East v West.

 Baltic Dry Index. 801 -73         Brent Crude 86.48

Spot Gold 1928             US 2 Year Yield 4.09 +0.03

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,103

Coronavirus Cases 20/01/23 World 672,559,769

Deaths 6,739,772

“The problem with fiat money is that it rewards the minority that can handle money, but fools the generation that has worked and saved money.”

“Adam Smith” aka George Goodman.

In the stock casinos, an east-west split. But with China due to fully reopen after the Lunar New Year holiday, global inflation is likely to rise as pent up Chinese demand hits still dodgy supply chains, making it impossible for western central banks do little more than slow their rate of key interest rate increases.

My money is on the west being correct in this east-west stock casino split.

Besides, a nasty unnecessary debt ceiling war has just broken out in Washington, District of Crooks. Though team Biden have until early June to head off financial catastrophe, delay is not a card they hold.

Asia-Pacific markets rise as Japan’s inflation data reaches highest since 1981

UPDATED THU, JAN 19 2023 11:59 PM EST

Markets in the Asia-Pacific traded mostly higher on Friday as investors digested Japan’s inflation data. The nationwide core consumer price index rose 4% in December on an annualized basis, the fastest pace since 1981.

The Nikkei 225 gained 0.32% and the Topix traded 0.4% higher. The yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond inched lower to stand at 0.406%, slightly below the central bank’s upper ceiling of its tolerance range.

The Kospi in South Korea rose 0.37% and the Kosdaq gained 0.62%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 pared earlier losses to gain 0.26%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1% and the Hang Seng Tech index climbed 1.59%, leading gains in the region.

Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite traded 0.54% higher as the nation’s central bank left China’s 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates unchanged. The Shenzhen Component was up 0.4%.

Stocks on Wall Street fell Thursday as investors grew increasingly concerned the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates despite signs of slowing inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted saw the third straight negative session, giving up gains from a short-lived new year’s rally.

More

Asia-Pacific markets: Japan inflation data, China Loan Prime Rates (cnbc.com)

Stocks close down, putting all three major indexes on track for weekly losses

JAN. 19, 2023 / 5:35 PM

Jan. 19 (UPI) -- U.S. stocks closed lower Thursday amid ongoing fear that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates in February.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 252.4 points, or 0.76%, to close at 33,044.56. The S&P 500 dropped 30.01 points, or 0.76%, to 3,898.85, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 104.74 points, or 0.96% to 10,852.27.

"Despite all the big-tech post-pandemic layoffs, the jobs market remains hot," Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda said, according to CNBC. "The labor market needs to break to allow the Fed to comfortably keep rates on hold."

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said in a speech in Chicago Thursday that the Fed is "determined to stay the course."

"Even with the recent moderation, inflation remains high, and policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for some time to make sure inflation returns to 2% on a sustained basis," she said.

The Federal Open Market Committee will consider rate hikes at its next meeting Jan. 31-Feb. 1. The Fed raised the federal fund rates seven times in 2022, from near zero in March to its current range of 4.24% to 4.5%.

The federal funds rate guides how much banks charge one another for overnight lending, which trickles down, affecting the economy in all sorts of ways, including how much banks charge consumers for things like mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

---- Thursday's declines put all three major indexes on pace for their first weekly losses of the year.

"The factors driving the sharp YTD rally (short covering, risk bid and lower yields) appear to be hitting their near-term bounds," Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities said, according to CNBC. "This will likely will cause the market to trade sideways-to-down over the short term."

More

Stocks close down, putting all three major indexes on track for weekly losses - UPI.com

America Hit Its Debt Limit, Raising Economic Fears

January 19, 2023

WASHINGTON — The United States hit its debt limit on Thursday, prompting the Treasury Department to begin using a series of accounting maneuvers to ensure the federal government can keep paying its bills.

In a letter to Congress, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said the government would begin using what’s known as “extraordinary measures” to prevent the nation from breaching its statutory debt limit and asked lawmakers to raise or suspend the cap so that the government can continue meeting its financial obligations.

“The period of time that extraordinary measures may last is subject to considerable uncertainty, including the challenges of forecasting the payments and receipts of the U.S. government months into the future,” Ms. Yellen said. “I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.”

The milestone of hitting the country’s $31.4 trillion debt cap is the product of decades of tax cuts and increased government spending by both Republicans and Democrats. But at a moment of heightened partisanship and divided government, it is also a warning of the entrenched partisan battles that are set to dominate Washington in the months to come, and that could end in economic shock.

Newly empowered Republicans in the House have vowed that they will not raise the borrowing limit again unless President Biden agrees to steep cuts in federal spending. Mr. Biden has said he will not negotiate conditions for a debt-limit increase, arguing that lawmakers should lift the cap with no strings attached to cover spending that previous Congresses authorized.

Treasury officials estimate the measures that they began using on Thursday will enable the government to keep paying federal workers, Medicare providers, investors who hold U.S. debt and other recipients of federal dollars at least until early June.

But economists warn that the nation risks a financial crisis and other immediate economic pain if lawmakers do not raise the limit before the Treasury Department exhausts its ability to buy more time.

The episode has prompted fears in part because of the lessons both parties have taken from more than a decade of debt-limit fights. A bout of brinkmanship in 2011 between House Republicans and President Barack Obama nearly ended in the United States defaulting on its debt before Mr. Obama agreed to a set of caps on future spending increases in exchange for lifting the limit.

 

Most Democrats have solidified in their position that negotiations over the debt limit only enhance the risks of economic calamity by encouraging Republicans to use it as leverage. That is particularly true of Mr. Biden, who successfully stared down Republicans and won an increase in 2021 with no stipulations.

Newly elected Republicans, emboldened by anger among their base and conservative advocacy groups over failures in the past to exact concessions for raising the limit, have pledged not to let that happen again.

More

America Hit Its Debt Limit, Raising Economic Fears – DNyuz

In other news.

China’s recovery may mean the Fed will have to hike rates longer

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 19 2023 12:43 AM EST

As the end of China’s stringent Covid restrictions quickens the country’s economic recovery, concerns about pent-up Chinese demand — and the inflation that may follow — could mean bad news for the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Economic data indicates that the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes are pulling down U.S. inflation, but China’s demand could make commodity prices return to levels from early 2022, before the U.S. central bank embarked on its journey of hiking rates to bring down inflationary pressures.

“In our view ... a stronger China increases the chances of a stubbornly hawkish Fed,” Tavis McCourt, institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, said in his 2023 Outlook.

“With China, we do need more of everything – if that drives enough demand to get commodity prices back up closer to where they were in the spring of last year, then that puts the progress we’ve seen on inflation in a much more tenuous position,” he said.

With activity expected to pick up from China, demand for a variety of commodities will be driven up, McCourt said.

“As consumers are allowed out of their apartments, and start becoming more mobile, there’s going to be more gasoline demand and more jet fuel demand,” he said. “Demand is going to come back really quickly.”

Commodity prices have indeed seen significant gains since December, when China announced plans to lift some of its strictest Covid measures.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange traded at $9,436 on Thursday morning – up around 12.5% month-to-date. Aluminum prices also rose 11.7% in January, FactSet Data showed.

More

China's recovery may mean the Fed will have to hike rates longer (cnbc.com)

China says COVID has peaked as holiday rush gets into full swing

BEIJING, Jan 20 (Reuters) - China said the worst was over in its battle against COVID-19 ahead of what is expected to be one of the busiest days of travel in years on Friday, a mass movement of people that has fed fears of a further surge in infections.

Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who oversees China's virus response, said the outbreak was at a "relatively low" level, state media reported late on Thursday, after health officials said the number of COVID patients in clinics, emergency rooms and with critical conditions had peaked.

But there are widespread doubts about China's account of an outbreak that has overwhelmed hospitals and crematoriums since Beijing abandoned strict COVID controls and mass testing last month.

That policy U-turn, which followed historic protests against the government's "zero-COVID" regime, unleashed the virus on 1.4 billion people who had been largely shielded since it emerged in the city of Wuhan at the end of 2019.

Some health experts expect that more than one million people will die of the disease in China this year, with British-based health data firm Airfinity forecasting COVID fatalities could hit 36,000 a day next week.

"Recently, the overall pandemic in the country is at a relatively low level," Sun said in comments reported by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

"The number of critical patients at hospitals is decreasing steadily, though the rescue mission is still heavy."

Her comments came on the eve of what is expected to be one of the busiest days of travel across China since the pandemic erupted in late 2019, as millions of city-dwellers travel to home towns for the Lunar New Year holiday that officially begins on Saturday.

A total of 2.1 billion trips are expected to take place across China between Jan. 7 and Feb. 15, the transport ministry has estimated.

Passengers laden with luggage and boxes of gifts packed on to trains on Friday, heading for long-awaited family reunions.

More

China says COVID has peaked as holiday rush gets into full swing | Reuters

Finally, in cryptoland, pot calls kettle black.

Davos crypto crowd distance themselves from FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried: “It’s fraud”

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 19 2023 4:18 AM EST

DAVOS, Switzerland — The crypto community at Davos sought to distance themselves from the dramatic collapse of FTX and its co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried who is now facing federal criminal charges in the U.S.

Bankman-Fried, FTX’s former CEO, was charged by U.S. federal prosecutors on eight criminal counts, including securities and wire fraud. He was extradited from the Bahamas to the U.S., and has so far pled not guilty. Two of his former business associates, FTX co-founder Gary Wang and ex-Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, pled guilty to federal fraud charges and agreed to cooperate with U.S. prosecutors.

“FTX in my view now gets painted as a crypto problem. I think if you really peel enough onion layers, it’s not really a crypto ... problem to happen here, it’s fraud. And I think we should not pretend it’s something else,” Brad Garlinghouse, CEO, Ripple, told CNBC.

Garlinghouse also spelled out Ripple’s own exposure to the collapsed crypto exchange. In an interview Wednesday, he said that Ripple had leased some $10 million of XRP to FTX, which “they used on various things related to FTX.” XRP is the native cryptocurrency of Ripple.

----Other crypto executives also had a similar view to Garlinghouse.

“It’s important to distinguish this [FTX collapse], it’s a failure of institutions, it’s a failure of individuals … this is very different from the technology,” Rene Reinsberg, co-founder of Celo, said during a CNBC-hosted panel on Thursday.

Crypto executives acknowledged the reputational impact on the industry from the FTX fallout but said it will focus more attention on the well-run businesses.

More

Davos crypto crowd distance themselves from FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried (cnbc.com)

Crypto lender Genesis files for bankruptcy in latest blow to Barry Silbert’s DCG empire

Crypto lender Genesis filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late Thursday night in Manhattan federal court, the latest casualty in the industry contagion caused by the collapse of FTX and a crippling blow to a business once at the heart of Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group.

The company listed over 100,000 creditors in a “mega” bankruptcy filing, with aggregate liabilities ranging from $1.2 billion to $11 billion dollars, according to bankruptcy documents.

Three separate petitions were filed for Genesis’ holding companies. In a statement, the company noted that the companies were only involved in Genesis’ crypto lending business. The company’s derivatives and spot trading business will continue unhindered, as will Genesis Global Trading.

---- The filing follows months of speculation over whether Genesis would enter bankruptcy protection, and just days after the Securities and Exchange Commission filed suit against Genesis and its onetime partner, Gemini, over the unregistered offering and sale of securities.

Genesis listed a $765.9 million loan payable from Gemini in Thursday’s bankruptcy filing. Other sizeable claims included a $78 million loan payable from Donut, a high-yield, decentralized platform, and a VanEck fund, with a $53.1 million loan payable.

Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss initially responded to the news on Twitter, writing that Silbert and DCG “continue to refuse to offer creditors a fair deal.”

“We have been preparing to take direct legal action against Barry, DCG, and others,” he continued.

More

Crypto lender Genesis Trading files for bankruptcy protection (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 19 2023 2:31 AM EST

DAVOS, Switzerland — The European Central Bank will not stop with one single 50 basis point hike at its next rate-setting meetings, a board member told CNBC Thursday.

“It will not stop after a single 50 basis point hike, that’s for sure,” Klaas Knot, who serves as the governor of the Dutch central bank, said regarding the ECB’s upcoming moves.

The European Central Bank raised rates four times throughout 2022, bringing its deposit rate to 2%. The central bank in December said it would be increasing rates further in 2023 to address sky-high inflation.

Recent data has shown a slowdown in headline inflation, even if it remains well above the ECB’s 2% target.

December inflation came in at 9.2% in the euro zone, according to preliminary numbers. This was the second consecutive monthly drop in price rises across the euro zone. However, Knot doesn’t think all of the recent data is “encouraging.”

“What we have seen thus far is data that is not encouraging from our end,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We have seen one more inflation reading where there were no signs of abating of [the] underlying inflationary pressures. So we have to do what we’ll have to do, and core inflation has not yet turned the corner in the euro area and that means the market developments I have seen in, let’s say, last two weeks or so are not entirely welcomed from my perspective. I don’t think they are compatible actually with a timely return of inflation toward 2%,” Knot said.

More

European Central Bank member says market is mispricing rate hikes, expects more to come (cnbc.com)

Jamie Dimon says rates will rise above 5% because there is still ‘a lot of underlying inflation’

PUBLISHED THU, JAN 19 2023 6:21 AM EST

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon believes that interest rates could go higher than what the Federal Reserve currently projects as inflation remains stubbornly high.

“I actually think rates are probably going to go higher than 5% ... because I think there’s a lot of underlying inflation, which won’t go away so quick,” Dimon said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Thursday from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

To battle soaring prices, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate to a targeted range between 4.25% and 4.5%, the highest level in 15 years. The expected “terminal rate,” or point where officials expect to end the rate hikes, was set at 5.1% at its December meeting.

The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad basket of goods and services, rose 6.5% in December from a year ago, marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021.

Dimon said the recent easing of inflation comes from temporary factors such as a pullback in oil prices and a slowdown in China due to the pandemic.

“We’ve had the benefit of China’s slowing down, the benefit of oil prices dropping a little bit,” Dimon said. “I think oil gas prices probably go up the next 10 years ... China isn’t going to be deflationary anymore.”

The series of aggressive rate hikes have fueled worries of a recession in the U.S. Central bankers still feel they have leeway to raise rates as the labor market and the consumer remains strong.

The JPMorgan chief said if the U.S. suffers a mild recession, interest rates will rise to 6%. He added that it’s hard for anyone to predict economic downturns.

“I know there are going to be recessions, ups and downs. I really don’t spend that much time worrying about it. I do worry that poor public policy that damages American growth,” Dimon said.

Jamie Dimon says rates will rise above 5% because there is still 'a lot of underlying inflation' (cnbc.com)

 

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

 China Braces For Covid Surge After Lunar New Year

By Margaret Sutherlin

18 January 2023 at 22:02 GMT

For 1.4 billion Chinese citizens that had the government dictate their movements since the pandemic began, the surge of infections since the end of the Covid Zero policy has forced them to suddenly figure out how to survive on their own. As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches President Xi Jinping asked the public to “make an extra effort to pull through” the virus wave, and state media urged people to “take primary responsibility for their own health.” Rural China is bracing for an onslaught of Covid cases because of the holiday. While China’s propaganda arms have sought to control the narrative by highlighting stories of self-sacrifice, the traumatic experiences risk upending the social contract that underpins the Communist Party’s legitimacy: An acceptance of one-party rule in return for competent governance that keeps people safe and improves their lives. Instead, citizens are now gaining real-world experience in effectively living without the party. 

Bloomberg Evening Briefing: China Braces for Covid Wave After Lunar New Year - Bloomberg

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

No update today. Normal service resumes tomorrow.

Another weekend and the start of the Chinese New Year and the year of the rabbit. Have a great weekend everyone.

Flanagan and Allen - Run Rabbit Run.wmv

Flanagan and Allen - Run Rabbit Run.wmv - YouTube

 

 

 

 

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