Tuesday 30 March 2021

Greed Hammered. The Top? 1981.

Baltic Dry Index. 2162 -16 Brent Crude 65.10

Spot Gold 1708

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100 

Coronavirus Cases 30/03/21 World 128,242,488

Deaths 2,804,370

Some of the queries Quakers are asked to consider, are: "Do you maintain strict integrity in your business transactions and in your relations with individuals and organizations? Are you personally scrupulous and responsible in the use of money entrusted to you, and are you careful not to defraud the public revenue?"

Probably why there a no Quakers on Wall Street, in the City or Parliament.

In the stock casinos, fear. No not Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO,) fear of not knowing which other hedge funds are in the process of blowing up, plus as month-end and end of quarter arrives, fear that Friday’s and Monday’s chaos will trigger a wave of profit taking redemptions in the quarter ahead.

Longer term, Friday’s dramatic hammering of an over leveraged hedge fund is likely to bring in much tighter regulation in addition to the coming Biden taxes.

However unlikely, was that it for stocks?

Dow ekes out record, stocks end mostly lower on jitters tied to investment fund margin call

Last Updated: March 29, 2021 at 4:36 p.m. ET First Published: March 29, 2021 at 7:21 a.m. ET

By Joy Wiltermuth and Sunny Oh

Stocks closed mostly lower on Monday amid concerns about potential spillover after a large investment fund was forced to sell massive holdings in stocks, causing prices to tumble.

Investors were monitoring news reports that former Tiger Asia manager Bill Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management had unwound big bets late last week after facing margin calls.

How did stock markets perform?
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose 98.49 points, or 0.3%, to close at 33,171.37, a record close, after erasing an earlier losses.
  • The S&P 500 index SPX fell 3.45 points, or 0.1%, ending at 3,971.09.
  • The Nasdaq Composite COMP slumped 79.08 points, or 0.6%, finishing at 13,059.65.
  • The Russell 2000 RUT of small-cap stocks tumbled 2.8% to end at 2,158.68.

On Friday, the Dow notched a 1.4% increase, the S&P 500 added 1.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.6%.

What drove the market?

The Dow flipped positive in afternoon trade to close up nearly 100 points, despite lingering jitters tied to reports that Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management recently sold some $30 billion in holdings to meet margin calls, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter.

“Are there others? I’m sure there are,” said David Barse, founder and chief executive of XOUT Capital, of funds that combine leverage with higher-risk investment strategies that if caught off guard could cause prices of their holdings to at least temporarily tumble. “I’m sure banks are looking very carefully at that,” he told MarketWatch, while adding that brokers are also likely “tightening their risk profiles on clients.”

“My response is don’t own single-stock risk,” Barse said, “unless you know more about the stock than the marketplace, because it could be that something you have no control over is going to impair your investment.”

But Barse also said that unlike during the 2008 financial crisis, leverage isn’t being broadly paired with derivatives, which amplified global financial losses more than a decade ago.

Even so, the bulk asset sales last Friday drove shares of Discovery DISCA and ViacomCBS VIAC to register their worst one-day declines on record. Shares of both companies fell again Monday.

Global investment banks Credit Suisse Group CS and Nomura Holdings NMR on Monday said they were likely to take hits due to the volatility in the market, but didn’t directly name Hwang’s fund.

“A significant U.S.-based hedge fund defaulted on margin calls made last week by Credit Suisse and certain other banks,” said Credit Suisse. “Following the failure of the fund to meet these margin commitments, Credit Suisse and a number of other banks are in the process of exiting these positions.”

The buzz around the margin call comes at the start of a holiday-shortened week, as investors brace for a fresh round of volatility. Some markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday, including those in the U.S., and some European markets will remain closed next week for Easter Monday.

More

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/dow-futures-stumble-amid-reports-of-an-investment-funds-massive-margin-call-11617016879?mod=dist_mw_email

Next, when greed goes wrong and how! When massive bets funded by the Fed fuelling the Wall Street mafia, go upside down. Not to worry, the Fedsters will bailout Goldie and the rest, yet again, should that become necessary.

Below, more of the unintended consequences of the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money, communist money. Bad money drives out good money and high stakes leveraged gambling becomes the only game in town for the central banksters.

 

Billions in Secret Derivatives at Center of Archegos Blowup

The forced liquidation of more than $20 billion in holdings linked to Bill Hwang’s investment firm is drawing attention to the covert financial instruments he used to build large stakes in companies.

Much of the leverage used by Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management was provided by banks including Nomura Holdings Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG through swaps or so-called contracts-for-difference, according to people with direct knowledge of the deals. It means Archegos may never actually have owned most of the underlying securities -- if any at all.

While investors who build a stake of more than 5% in a U.S.-listed company usually have to disclose their position and subsequent transactions, that’s not the case with stakes built through the type of derivatives apparently used by Archegos. The products, which are made off exchanges, allow managers like Hwang to amass stakes in publicly traded companies without having to declare their holdings.

The swift unwinding of Archegos has reverberated across the globe, after banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley forced Hwang’s firm to sell billions of dollars in investments accumulated through highly leveraged bets. The selloff roiled stocks from Baidu Inc. to ViacomCBS Inc., and prompted Nomura and Credit Suisse to disclose that they face potentially significant losses on their exposure.

One reason for the widening fallout is the borrowed funds that investors use to magnify their bets: a margin call occurs when the market goes against a large, leveraged position, forcing the hedge fund to deposit more cash or securities with its broker to cover any losses. Archegos was probably required to deposit only a small percentage of the total value of trades.

The chain of events set off by this massive unwinding is yet another reminder of the role that hedge funds play in the global capital markets. A hedge fund short squeeze during a Reddit-fueled frenzy for Gamestop Corp. shares earlier this year spurred a $6 billion loss for Gabe Plotkin’s Melvin Capital and sparked scrutiny from U.S. regulators and politicians.

----Much about Hwang’s trades remains unclear, but market participants estimate his assets had grown to anywhere from $5 billion to $10 billion in recent years and total positions may have topped $50 billion. Hwang didn’t respond to requests for comment.

CFDs and swaps are among bespoke derivatives that investors trade privately between themselves, or over-the-counter, instead of through public exchanges. Such opacity helped to worsen the 2008 financial crisis and regulators have introduced a vast new body of rules governing the assets since then.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/billions-in-secretive-derivatives-at-center-of-archegos-blowup?srnd=premium-canada

Goldman U-Turn on Hwang Put Bank at Nexus of Margin Call Mayhem

By Erik Schatzker and Sridhar Natarajan

28 March 2021, 22:06 BST

·         Tiger Cub’s family office now at center of epic margin call

·         Bank removed him from blacklist, financed his positions

Bill Hwang, a former hedge fund manager who’d pleaded guilty to insider trading, was deemed such a risk by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that as recently as late 2018 the firm refused to do business with him.

Those misgivings didn’t last.

Wall Street’s premier investment bank, lured by the tens of millions of dollars a year in commissions that a whale like Hwang paid to rival dealers, removed his name from its blacklist and allowed him to become a major client. Just as Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse Group AG and others did, Goldman fueled a pipeline of billions of dollars in credit for Hwang to make highly leveraged bets on stocks such as Chinese tech giant Baidu Inc. and media conglomerate ViacomCBS Inc.

Now Hwang is at the center of one of the greatest margin calls of all time, his giant portfolio in a messy and painful liquidation, and Goldman’s reversal has thrust it right into the mayhem.

According to two people with direct knowledge of the matter, Hwang’s Archegos Capital Management was forced by its lenders to dump more than $20 billion of stocks on Friday in a series of market-roiling trades so large and hurried that investors described them as unprecedented.

Goldman even emailed clients late Friday to inform them that it had in fact been one of the banks selling. The email, a copy of which was seen by Bloomberg, detailed a total of $10.5 billion in trades. The message didn’t name Hwang or Archegos.

Representatives for Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse declined to comment. Efforts to reach Hwang and his associates at Archegos were unsuccessful.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-28/goldman-u-turn-on-hwang-put-bank-at-nexus-of-margin-call-mayhem?srnd=premium-europe

In inflation news, more warnings and rising bond yields.

From housebuilders to toymakers, businesses are sounding the inflation alarm

Markets have been jittery about the prospect of resurgent inflation, given it eats away at the interest bonds pay and cuts into the present value of companies' future cash flows

Mar 29, 2021  •  4 hours ago

Investors are fretting over inflation. Scores of U.S. companies are saying they are right to.

A growing list of businesses are warning that supply-chain bottlenecks, increasing raw material costs and higher labour expenses are beginning to bite.

Manufacturing behemoth 3M Co. has flagged rising air and freight costs to ship its goods, while Walmart Inc. has warned on the congestion in U.S. ports. Mobile home manufacturer Legacy Homes and Williams-Sonoma Inc., the purveyor of Breville espresso machines and Wüsthof knife sets, have seen an uptick in wage costs. And Barbie Doll-maker Mattel Inc. has warned on the rise in plastics prices, which were exacerbated by the winter storm in Texas that took petrochemicals plants offline.

“Costs are going up everywhere,” said Ted Doheny, chief executive of packaging maker Sealed Air Corp. “It’s DefCon 4 (for) us right now. It’s a big deal.”

These first flickers of inflation — and the fact that many S&P 500 companies say they are responding by raising their own prices — have fed a debate among investors as the U.S. economic recovery accelerates. Are these a signal that the kind of chronic inflation long ago tamed by the U.S. central bank could be about to roar back?

“People are thinking it’s transitory, or maybe hoping it’s transitory,” said Peter van Dooijeweert, managing director of multi-asset solutions at Man Solutions. “Because no one really knows what else to do.”

Central bankers and investors expect inflation to accelerate this year as government stimulus and pent-up demand from more than a year of social curbs pumps up the U.S. economy.

One market measure of inflation expectations, the 10-year break-even rate, climbed to its highest level since 2013 last week, at 2.36 per cent. Officials with the Federal Reserve have also lifted their inflation forecasts. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures index, is now expected to reach 2.2 per cent by the end of the year from 1.4 per cent now, according to the most recent Fed predictions. Three months ago, the central bank’s officials had been pencilling in a 1.8 per cent increase.

More

https://financialpost.com/financial-times/from-housebuilders-to-toymakers-businesses-are-sounding-the-inflation-alarm

Dollar hits 1-year high versus yen as inflation worries lift yields

March 30, 2021

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