Baltic Dry Index. 1829 +50 Brent Crude 70.75
Spot Gold 1707
Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 08/03/21 World 117,449,599
Deaths 2,605,337
And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.
Genesis 1.
And President Biden said let there be another 1.9 trillion of new dollars: and poof, just like that, the Senate Democrats created another 1.9 trillion new dollars to add to President Trump’s 1.4 trillion new dollars in 2020 and his 900 billion new dollars created in November 2020.
When facts change, I change my opinion. I now believe we are on the cusp of a return to the 1970s age of inflation.
Though the coronavirus pandemic has distorted most statistics about 2020, as best as I can see, with the latest 1.9 trillion, the USA alone has created 4.2 trillion new dollars, albeit the latest 1.9 trillion aren’t yet issued, to tackle an economy problem that was likely between 1 and 2 trillion.
Add in many billions more in unpaid private and commercial rents, a mortgage moratorium, a global warming Great Texas Freeze hit to the USA food chain, a new USA Great Western 22 year cyclical drought, and an oil price already back trading in the 70s, and while we might not actually get “inflation to infinity and beyond,” I think we’re going to get close.
Spot gold trading in the 1700s is the bargain of the 2020s. Rather like when Chancellor Brown sold off 395 tons of the UK’s gold in 1999 to 2002 at an average price of a mere $275 per troy ounce. In gold “the Brown bottom.”
Still, silver in the mid $20s might be, for now, the more attractive buy.
Shares falter as tech skids, yields and oil ring inflation alarm
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic swept across Britain a year ago, a billionaire banker made a televised pitch to the nation offering assistance. Lex Greensill, a 44-year-old Australian who had made his name by devising ingenious ways for companies to pay their bills faster, announced a plan to ease the pressure on NHS staff fighting the virus.
Sandwich chain Pret A Manger had just offered every NHS worker in the country a free cup of tea. Greensill went one better: his company would enable doctors, nurses and even hospital janitors to cash a part of their pay cheque every day — rather than waiting until the end of the month — at no additional cost.
“In a way,” Greensill told Sky TV, pausing for dramatic effect, “it is our free cup of tea.”
It was a characteristically bold pledge, mixing the skills that had turned the son of a sugarcane farmer into one of Australia’s richest people — a flair for financial engineering, an ability to navigate the blurry line between public and private sectors and a heightened sense of bravado.
But one year later, Greensill’s
vision is in tatters.
Greensill Capital, the company he founded, teeters on the brink of insolvency. The group’s German banking subsidiary is in even greater legal peril: financial watchdog BaFin, still reeling from the Wirecard scandal, this week filed a criminal complaint against Greensill Bank’s management for suspected balance sheet manipulation.
The company had frequently portrayed itself as a saviour of small business, proclaiming that it was “making finance fairer” and “democratising capital”. Yet, Greensill’s lawyers this week painted a stark picture of the chain of destruction that a messy collapse could unleash: many of their corporate clients were “likely to become insolvent”, putting over 50,000 jobs around the world at risk.
The crisis at the company is a humbling reversal for a figure who had rapidly become a fixture of the British establishment. Prince Charles presented him with a CBE for “services to the economy” in 2017. The following year, former prime minister David Cameron signed up as Greensill’s adviser.
Some victims of the Greensill fiasco will elicit little sympathy.
SoftBank’s $100bn Vision Fund poured $1.5bn into the company in 2019, bewitched by its financial engineering. The fund is now expecting to lose its investment. Cameron, meanwhile, has seen a long-awaited personal windfall from share options turn to dust. But small business owners, many of whom have never even heard of Greensill, could become collateral damage. The British and German governments are also scrambling to halt any risk to taxpayers.
The insurance industry — a key cog in Greensill’s machine — is watching events unfold with a nervous eye. One insurer has already laid the blame for the scale of cover it extended to the company at the feet of a rogue underwriter. “This is similar to what blew up AIG in 2008,” says one person close to the brewing disputes, in reference to the complexity of the contracts involved.
More
https://www.ft.com/content/7e79117f-cbf5-4765-82ca-7e8f1fb5915b
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Austria suspends AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine batch after death
ZURICH (Reuters) - Austrian authorities have suspended inoculations with a batch of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine as a precaution while investigating the death of one person and the illness of another after the shots, a health agency said on Sunday.
“The Federal Office for Safety in Health Care (BASG) has received two reports in a temporal connection with a vaccination from the same batch of the AstraZeneca vaccine in the district clinic of Zwettl” in Lower Austria province, it said.
One 49-year-old woman died as a result of severe coagulation disorders, while a 35-year-old woman developed a pulmonary embolism and is recovering, it said. A pulmonary embolism is an acute lung disease caused by a dislodged blood clot.
“Currently there is no evidence of a causal relationship with the vaccination,” BASG said.
Austrian newspaper Niederoesterreichische Nachrichten as well as broadcaster ORF and the APA news agency reported that the women were both nurses who worked at the Zwettl clinic.
BASG said blood clotting was not among the known side effects of the vaccine. It was pursuing its investigation vigorously to completely rule out any possible link.
“As a precautionary measure, the remaining stocks of the affected vaccine batch are no longer being issued or vaccinated,” it added.
An AstraZeneca spokesman said: “There have been no confirmed serious adverse events associated with the vaccine,” adding that all batches are subject to strict and rigorous quality controls.
More
U.S. Government Scientists Skeptical of One-Shot Regimen for Pfizer, Moderna Covid Vaccines
Some members of Congress have urged to allow for just one dose to speed up vaccinations
February 6, 2021
WASHINGTON—U.S. government scientists are pushing back against calls for one-dose regimens for two Covid-19 vaccines designed to be administered with two shots, saying there isn’t enough evidence that a single dose provides long-term protection.
“It is essential that these vaccines be used as authorized by FDA in order to prevent Covid-19 and related hospitalizations and death,” Peter Marks, director of the Food and Drug Administration’s center that oversees vaccines, told The Wall Street Journal.
The FDA late last year approved a two-dose regimen for vaccines from Moderna Inc. and from a partnership of Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE. More recently it approved use of a one-dose regimen for a vaccine from Johnson & Johnson .
Some scientists and lawmakers have called for shifting to a one-dose regimen for all the vaccines, citing preliminary studies showing one shot can be effective. They contend shifting to one shot will allow the U.S. to accelerate the pace of vaccinations.
More
All of the Covid-19 Vaccines Are Equally Worthy of Your Arm
Headlines about the Johnson & Johnson trial results cite an efficacy rate lower than Pfizer’s and Moderna’s. But one figure doesn’t tell the whole story.
03.05.2021 01:24 PM
Last week, the FDA authorized the one-shot Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-DNA vaccine in the United States for Covid-19, adding this option to the two mRNA vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) already authorized in December. Its authorization is a huge public health win for our country. But in the days since, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine has somehow received a bad rap compared to its competitors.
Unlike the mRNA vaccines that first came to market, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is a nonreplicating human adenovirus-DNA vaccine, which means it works using tried technology that is more familiar to the public and has few side effects. This is not to say, however, that this vaccine is low-tech or in some way inferior. Cursory news headlines about the trial outcomes often cite an overall efficacy of 66 percent, which, compared to Pfizer and Moderna’s efficacy rates, may seem suboptimal. But a closer look at the trials and their results reveals important context for that number—and it shows that Johnson & Johnson's one-dose vaccine offers protection equal to that of the mRNA vaccines under certain circumstances. It was also the only vaccine of the three to show high protection against severe disease from the circulating variants during its trials, since testing was conducted after many were already prevalent. So while it might not have had the same efficacy as the mRNA vaccines against mild disease in this initial evaluation, this newest vaccine is no less worthy of your arm.
More
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.
Today something a little different. The whole article is well worth the read.
A Plague on Both Our Houses
Growing indications that viral enhancement research gone awry is still in play as a possible cause of the pandemic
February 18, 2021
The World Health Organization officials investigating the origins of the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, otherwise known as COVID-19, were finally let into China on Jan. 14, and spent two weeks “investigating.” The most contentious question was, did the virus that supposedly first infected people in a Wuhan wet market originate in one of the two virology labs close to the markets, at least one of which specialized in such viruses? The delegation discounted that, saying it was “extremely unlikely”—so unlikely that the WHO would end additional study of the matter. But the delegation revealed no evidence, or explanation, as to why they were so certain the case must be closed.
The idea of a lab leak wasn’t wild speculation, it was proposed in February 2020 by two Chinese researchers when they saw that one of the Chinese virus labs was eight miles from the wet market, and another, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, a mere 300 yards away. Mysteriously, their article “disappeared” from the internet (though it was retrieved using the Wayback Machine.) The other leading hypothesis was that the virus (the nearest relatives of which were known to be in bat caves about 1,000 miles away from Wuhan) jumped from an animal to human. To these two possibilities, the WHO added two more favored by the Chinese government: That it was introduced into China by people from outside the country, or that it arrived in frozen food from elsewhere, but provided little evidence for these.
Thus, the investigation went well for the Chinese government, and they made sure it did: It was delayed for a year, during which time viral evidence and witnesses disappeared. It only lasted two weeks (the committee was in quarantine two weeks), only several hours were spent in the lab in question, asking questions, not looking at samples or doing forensics, and the itinerary was controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, as, for that matter, was the committee composition, which included 17 Chinese members. “International members” included the very high profile researcher Peter Daszak, who himself closely collaborated with, and passed funding to, the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), and who was thus basically investigating and absolving himself. He praised those there for allowing a “Frank, open discussion.”
The Chinese participants were of course aware of what happened to physicians and researchers who spoke their minds on the issue. Chinese physicians who had sounded the alarm during the original outbreak were threatened with prison for sharing information with medical colleagues and the world. They were not interviewed. Dr. Ai Fen, head of the Emergency Department at Wuhan Central Hospital, saw many of the first cases and would have known where her patients might have been prior to getting sick. She dared to publish an article on the topic in China’s People. But the article disappeared, within hours, and then she disappeared. Censoring speech, and erasing brave people often go hand in hand.
On news of the outbreak, public health officials in other countries wanted access to the original virus samples to develop therapeutics. But key samples from the Wuhan Institute of Virology were also “disappeared” over a year ago. Chinese officials even admitted to destroying some of them—as a precaution to protect the public, of course—lest the coronavirus escape from the lab. (Was there ever a more superfluous precaution taken, considering the virus was already out and about in China and had infected tens of thousands?) The WHO committee made no comment on these forensic mysteries.
All this raises two questions: Why would a government eliminate evidence and witnesses, stall for a year, curate every detail, and stack the WHO investigating delegation, if a fair investigation would have shown the virus had an innocent, “natural” origin, had been introduced into China by a foreigner, or had arrived in a package of frozen food from another country? And why would the WHO go along?
There is, arguably, another way to approach this matter, which involves sorting through some of the most likely reasons the samples were destroyed and witnesses to the origins were silenced; an approach which may also help explain the WHO’s aiding and abetting such an obvious sham. It is to take into account that, among other things, the WIV lab was performing a form of research called “gain-of-function.”
If you can’t quite figure out what the term means, that is intended, because, GoF is a euphemism for a practice that might seem rather Dr. Strangelovian, and the furthest thing from forethought or prudence, or preventative medicine. It involves deliberately making viruses much more dangerous, to the point that they will cause a pandemic. “Gain-of-function” is the perfect term if you need a grant from a scientifically illiterate public composed of nervous types who, for some reason, don’t like or trust the idea of experts making invincible killer germs. “Viral-deadliness enhancement” would be a turnoff, but gain-of-function sounds like the title of a promising self-help fad. To call it a “euphemism” is a euphemism, because it is really doublespeak, like those military obfuscations such as “pacification,” which mean almost the opposite of what they appear to.
----In 2017, the moratorium on GoF research was reviewed in secret, and then quietly lifted by the NIH, in part because Drs. Fauci and Frances Collins, head of the NIH, did not want the funding to end, and thought it a risk worth taking. As reported in New York magazine, Dr. Fauci told a reporter, “Nature is the worst bioterrorist.”
It should be no surprise that the first reports that the SARS-CoV-2 virus had escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology were minimized by many in the American research establishment (which, in part, funded such research in China), and of course by the Chinese government. It became easy to lead the public to believe that concerns that the virus might have come from the lab was just a “conspiracy theory” encouraged by President Trump. But with Trump out of office, some scientists are suddenly stating publicly that the idea is a serious possibility.
More, much more.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/plague-on-both-our-houses
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
Milton Friedman.
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