Fed Day 1. China Booms. More Snow Than Canada.

Baltic Dry Index. 1983 +23 Brent Crude 68.36

Spot Gold 1737 

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 16/03/21 World 120,773,904

Deaths 2,672,204

“In the field of monetary and credit policy, precautionary action to prevent inflationary excesses is bound to have some onerous effects…Those who have the task of making such policy don’t expect you to applaud. The Federal Reserve…is in the position of the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.” 

Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr. 1955.

Day one of the Fed meeting in Washington, with nothing expected till tomorrow. 

In the casinos, everyone’s betting on the Fed topping up the punch bowl rather than taking it away. I doubt that the Fed can ever take the punch bowl away again, given the size of the USA’s debts.

Removing the punch bowl, higher interest rates, will blow up Uncle Sam’s ability to repay, plus crash the stock market worse than 1929.

We are all stuck with a giant inflation ahead it’s just none of us know when it starts nor how it ends.

Below, the party goes on in the Casinos.

Asian stocks follow Wall Street higher ahead of Fed meeting

March 16, 2021  12:07 AM  By Kevin Buckland, Elizabeth Dilts Marshall

TOKYO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Tuesday, tracking an advance by Wall Street’s main indexes to record highs, as investors looked to key central bank meetings this week, starting with the U.S. Federal Reserve.

An index of the region’s share markets excluding Japan strengthened 0.7%, led by a 1.2% jump in Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.6% to just below the closely watched 30,000 mark, while the broader Topix added 0.5%.

China’s blue chip CSI 300 index climbed 0.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.7%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both soared on gains in travel stocks as mass vaccinations in the United States and congressional approval of a $1.9 trillion aid bill fueled investor optimism.

E-mini futures for the S&P 500 edged up 0.06%.

Investors are focused on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday, as bond yields have surged this year on investors betting central bankers will need to raise rates sooner than they have so far signaled to contain inflation. Fed policymakers are expected to forecast that the U.S. economy will grow in 2021 by the fastest rate in decades.

The Bank of England also meets this week on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan wraps up a two-day gathering on Friday.

“Markets are likely to be in a holding pattern ahead of this...heavy central bank-laden week,” write analysts at TD Securities.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 174.82 points, or 0.53%, to 32,953.46, the S&P 500 gained 25.6 points, or 0.65%, to 3,968.94 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.84 points, or 1.05%, to 13,459.71.

Airline shares rose as the companies pointed to concrete signs of an industry recovery as vaccine rollouts help spur leisure bookings.

---- Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields slipped further on Tuesday, as the market looked ahead to the Fed meeting and the latest government debt auctions.

The benchmark 10-year yield, which reached a more than one-year high of 1.642% last week, was back at 1.595%

Rising inflation expectations could prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to signal it will start raising rates sooner than expected.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/asian-stocks-follow-wall-street-higher-ahead-of-fed-meeting-idUSKBN2B800D

UBS Raises China GDP Call to 9% as Biden Stimulus Drives Exports

Bloomberg News

16 March 2021, 05:02 GMT

·        

Growth to slow to 6.2% in 2022 after fastest growth in decade

·         Exports to grow 16% this year, fastest expansion since 2011

China’s economy will grow even faster than initially expected in 2021, driven by a strong rebound in the domestic economy and U.S. stimulus that should drive demand for Chinese exports, UBS Group AG economists forecast.

The world’s second-largest economy will expand 9% this year, they estimated Tuesday, faster than their earlier forecast of 8.2%. If achieved, that would be the quickest growth in a decade, and would bring forward the time when China’s economy surpasses America’s in size.

Even Stronger Rebound

“Despite additional mobility restrictions around the CNY holiday period that weakened travel and tourism, China’s overall economic activities were stronger than expected, thanks in part to more working days and robust export demand,” Chief China Economist Wang Tao and others wrote in the report.

“We see domestic consumption rebounding 10% in real terms, which, together with stronger exports, should help support corporate capex, even as infrastructure and property investment slow,” they said.

Gross domestic product will likely expand more than 19% this quarter compared to the first three months of 2020, when the nation was in lockdown, they wrote.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-16/ubs-raises-china-gdp-call-to-9-as-biden-stimulus-drives-exports

In anti-China news, does President Biden intend on pursuing President Trump’s policy on China? Who is the USA to set China’s Australia policy? And why do it publicly rather than diplomatically, unless the intent isn’t what it purports to be?  To prevent China from improving relations with Australia.

U.S. tells China to improve ties with Australia: U.S. official

March 16, 20215:36 AM

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Biden administration has told China that normalising relations with Australia is a precondition to Washington taking any substantial step towards improving relations with Beijing, a senior U.S. official said on Tuesday.

In an interview with The Sydney Morning Herald newspaper, the U.S. president’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, Kurt Campbell, said China’s “economic coercion” of Australia had been raised in every meeting between U.S. and Chinese officials and “will be underscored in interactions in Anchorage later this week”.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi and State Councillor Wang Yi on March 18 in Alaska, the first high-level in-person contact between the two countries under the Biden administration.

“We have made clear that the U.S. is not prepared to improve relations in a bilateral and separate context at the same time that a close and dear ally is being subjected to a form of economic coercion,” Campbell told The Sydney Morning Herald in an interview published on Tuesday.

Campbell said Biden had told Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison “that we stood together on this” during the meeting of the Quad group of leaders, which also included Japan and India, on Friday.

“We are fully aware of what’s going on and we are not prepared to take substantial steps to improve relations until those policies are addressed and a more normal interplay between Canberra and Beijing is established,” said Campbell.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-china-usa/u-s-tells-china-to-improve-ties-with-australia-u-s-official-idUSKBN2B80F9?il=0

In other news, a large part of the USA has more snow than Canada. Will winters return lead later to US food price inflation? Even the Fed can’t create food out of thin air at the push of a computer button.

Biggest total from record-shattering snowstorm tops 50 inches

By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer & Chaffin Mitchell, AccuWeather staff writer & Lauren Fox, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Mar. 16, 2021 4:13 AM GMT

A snowstorm of epic proportions swept across the western United States this past weekend, dropping over 3 feet of snow in many areas and leaving tens of thousands of residents without power under the heavy blanket of record-breaking snow totals.

The storm left historic mounds of snow in its wake, dropping 30.8 inches of snow in Cheyenne, Wyoming, the most snow from a single storm the city had ever seen. The previous record was set in 1979 when the city received 25.2 inches over two days.

This same system would become the fourth-largest snowstorm in Denver history, leaving over 27 inches of powder at Denver International Airport. Throughout Colorado, five locations received at least 3 feet of snow, led by Buckhorn Mountain’s 42 inches recorded over the weekend.

In Wyoming, even the most winter-proofed lifelong residents wouldn’t be able to recall a storm that packed this heavy a punch. Along with Cheyenne’s all-time record, a site atop Windy Peak in the Laramie Range reported 52 inches of snow, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The “historic” conditions spewed far enough to even drop 19 inches of snow in Nebraska, triggering the closure of Interstate 80 near Gering, according to The Associated Press.

By early Monday morning, the 27.1 inches of snow reported at the Denver International Airport, forced all airlines to cease operations, leading to the cancellation of 1,072 departing flights and 1,116 arriving ones.

Other locations in Colorado received in excess of 3 feet such as Aspen Springs, which recorded 40 inches of snow.

More

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/record-snowstorm-tops-50-inches-wyoming-colorado/915348

“If you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”

James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush.

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Germany, Italy, France suspend AstraZeneca shots amid safety fears, disrupting EU vaccinations

March 15, 2021  4:10 PM  By Thomas Escritt, Stephanie Nebehay

BERLIN/GENEVA (Reuters) - Germany, France and Italy said on Monday they would suspend AstraZeneca COVID-19 shots after several countries reported possible serious side-effects, but the World Health Organization (WHO) said there was no proven link and people should not panic.

Still, the decision by the European Union’s three biggest countries to put inoculations with the AstraZeneca shot on hold threw the already struggling vaccination campaign in the 27-nation EU into disarray.

Denmark and Norway stopped giving the shot last week after reporting isolated cases of bleeding, blood clots and a low platelet count. Iceland and Bulgaria followed suit and Ireland and the Netherlands announced suspensions on Sunday.

Spain will stop using the vaccine for at least 15 days, Cadena Ser radio reported, citing unnamed sources.

The top WHO scientist reiterated on Monday that there have been no documented deaths linked to COVID-19 vaccines.

“We do not want people to panic,” Soumya Swaminathan said on a virtual media briefing, adding there has been no association, so far, pinpointed between so-called “thromboembolic events” reported in some countries and COVID-19 shots.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said an advisory committee meeting on AstraZeneca would be held on Tuesday. EU medicines regulator EMA will also convene this week to assess the information gathered into whether the AstraZeneca shot contributed to thromboembolic events in those inoculated.

The moves by some of Europe’s largest and most populous countries will deepen concerns about the slow rollout of vaccines in the region, which has been plagued by shortages due to problems producing vaccines, including AstraZeneca’s.

Germany warned last week it was facing a third wave of infections, Italy is intensifying lockdowns and hospitals in the Paris region are close to being overloaded.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn said that although the risk of blood clots was low, it could not be ruled out.

More

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/germany-italy-france-suspend-astrazeneca-shots-amid-safety-fears-disrupting-eu-vaccinations-idUSKBN2B722U?il=0

New data suggests mRNA COVID-19 vaccines prevent infection

By Rich Haridy  March 14, 2021

In a stunning demonstration of human endeavor, less than one year after a new virus swept across the world triggering a pandemic, we developed several effective vaccines that protect those inoculated from hospitalization and death. However, one key question not answered by rigorous clinical trials last year was whether the vaccines prevent asymptomatic infection, and onward transmission.

While it was clear the vaccines could dramatically reduce rates of death from COVID-19, it was unclear whether they could prevent mild, or even asymptomatic infections. Now, as millions have been vaccinated around the world, researchers are getting some promising early indications that mRNA vaccines in particular may successfully prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent transmission.

Over 100 million Americans have received at least one dose of a mRNA COVID-19 vaccine (either from Pfizer or Moderna). A new Mayo Clinic-led study, published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, looked at retrospective data from nearly 40,000 subjects who took a routine pre-operative COVID-19 test over the past couple of months. About 3,000 of those subjects had received at least one dose of an mRNA vaccine more than 10 days before the COVID-19 test.

“Among individuals who had received a single dose of vaccine [more than] 10 days prior to their pre-procedure test, we observed a 72 percent reduction in the risk of a positive molecular screening test,” the researchers report in the study. “After adjustment for multiple potential confounding factors, we observed an 80-percent reduction in the risk of a positive molecular screening test among test performed in persons who had received two doses of vaccine, compared to those who were not vaccinated.”

These findings promisingly echo several other studies appearing on pre-print journal servers in recent weeks. A UK investigation tracking healthcare workers in the weeks following a single dose of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine found a 75-percent reduction in asymptomatic cases compared to a matched unvaccinated cohort.

Researchers have been closely studying case numbers in Israel, as that country is leading the world in mass vaccinations. Early indications are again suggesting asymptomatic infections may drop by as much as 75 percent two weeks after one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

In mid-February Anthony Fauci noted during a White House COVID-19 briefing that preliminary data looking at the first wave of vaccinations is beginning to suggest mRNA vaccines don’t just prevent severe disease, but also prevent infection.

"The looming question is, if the person who's been vaccinated gets infected, does that person have the capability to transmit it to another person," said Fauci. "Some studies are pointing in a very favorable direction."

Another major clue these early mRNA vaccines can prevent onward transmission of the virus are preliminary studies tracking reductions to overall viral loads in vaccinated subjects who do eventually become infected with SARS-CoV-2. One study, still in preprint and not yet peer-reviewed, found viral load to be “four-fold” lower in subjects infected 12 to 28 days after one dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

A Lancet study looking at transmission of the virus in Spain confidently noted a correlation between viral load and increased transmission. Fauci suggests this indicates a person is much less infectious when they present with a lower viral load.

More

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/mrna-coronavirus-vaccine-prevent-infection-transmission/

Better Covid Vaccines Are Coming, WHO’s Chief Scientist Says

By Jason Gale   15 March 2021, 10:08 GMT

·         As many as eight new vaccines might be ready by end of 2021

·         Next crop of vaccines will use alternative delivery systems

New Covid-19 vaccines, including ones that don’t require needles and can be stored at room temperature, may be ready for use later this year or next year, the World Health Organization’s top scientist said.

Six-to-eight new immunizations may complete clinical studies and undergo regulatory review by the end of the year, Soumya Swaminathan, the Geneva-based agency’s chief scientist, said in an interview Saturday.

New vaccines will add to the 10 already shown to work within a year of Covid-19 being declared a pandemic. The world needs more immunizations, especially as the virus’s continuous circulation spawns dangerous new variants and drugmakers struggle to meet orders. Only 122 countries have started immunizing people, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

“We’re thrilled with the vaccines that we have,” said Swaminathan, an Indian pediatrician best known for her research on tuberculosis and HIV. But “we can improve further,” she said. “I think, well into 2022, we’re going to see the emergence of improved vaccines.”

The current crop of experimental vaccines use alternative technologies and delivery systems, and include more single-shot inoculations, and vaccines that are administered orally, via a nasal spray, and through the skin using a type of patch. These could bring immunizations that are better suited to specific groups, such as pregnant women, according to Swaminathan.

More than 80 candidate vaccines are being studied in people, though some are still in the early stages of testing and may not be successful. Companies with Covid-19 vaccines already in use have also begun testing updated versions designed to thwart variants of the coronavirus that have emerged in recent months.

“We need to continue to support the research and development of more vaccine candidates, especially as the need for ongoing booster immunization of populations is still not very clear at this point,” Swaminathan said. “So we need to be prepared for that in the future.”

The WHO’s strategic advisory group of experts on immunization is reviewing whether people who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 need to have two doses of vaccine. Some research indicates that a natural infection works to prime the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, much as a first dose would, making a second injection unnecessary.

More

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-15/better-covid-vaccines-are-coming-who-s-chief-scientist-says?srnd=premium-europe

 

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Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Lightning-fast GigaDrive SSD boasts read/write speeds of 2,800 MB/s

By Michael Irving  March 15, 2021

In this world overflowing with data and content, external solid state drives are becoming more and more necessary. Thankfully they’re also getting faster, as demonstrated by a new SSD called GigaDrive that boasts read and write speeds of up to 2,800 MB/s thanks to its architecture and Thunderbolt 4- and USB4-compatible port.

As far as external drives go, the GigaDrive looks pretty good. It’s nice and small, measuring only 114 x 37 x 12.5 mm and weighing just 74 g (2.6 oz). It comes in 1 TB, 2 TB or 4 TB models, so there’s plenty of space. And it’s wrapped in a sturdy aluminum shell, which the company claims is resistant to shocks, water and dust with its IP67 rating. Apparently that casing also helps it conduct heat and prevent overheating.

But the biggest selling point is its lightning-fast read and write speeds, clocking in at up to 2,800 MB/s in both regards. GigaDrive chalks these up to a combination of factors – it’s built on the NVMe M.2 architecture, and packs a DRAM cache chip that pre-processes where it will store data in a new transfer.

The drive is also tapping into two next-generation connections, Thunderbolt 4 and USB4, which both have higher bandwidth, allowing the faster transfer speeds. While there still aren’t all that many devices with the new ports, the beauty is that it’s still the same connector, so it’s compatible with Thunderbolt 3 and most other USB-C devices.

GigaDrive claims it’s the “world’s fastest” external SSD, which may technically be true but isn’t entirely unheard of either. The average still seems to hover around 500 MB/s, but existing devices like Samsung’s Portable X5 have also managed read speeds of 2,800 MB/s. Write speeds are usually harder to bump up of course, so maybe that specifically is where GigaDrive is claiming the record.

Either way, the GigaDrive looks like a decent little SSD. It may not necessarily be as revolutionary as it wants to be, but all of its features mean it could be a good option for expanding storage on a laptop, desktop, or your shiny new PlayStation 5. Or it could plug into a high-end camera and quickly store your photos and video in the field.

The GigaDrive is currently seeking funding on Indiegogo, where it’s already smashed its US$15,000 goal, raising over $115,000 with 40 days remaining on the campaign. Pledges start at $149 for the 1 TB model, $209 for 2 TB and $349 for 4 TB. If all goes to plan, shipping is set to begin in July 2021.

Check it out in the video below.

https://newatlas.com/computers/gigadrive-ssd-2800mbs-read-write-speeds/

“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.