Baltic Dry Index. 2044 -53 Brent Crude 42.14
Spot Gold 1889
Coronavirus Cases 08/10/20 World 36,287,222
Deaths 1,059,782
We don't come to Canada for our health. We can think of other ways of enjoying ourselves.
Prince Philip. On a trip to Canada in 1976.
With fight night two widely reported as a no score draw, the US polls are not expected to change from a Biden win by anywhere from 8 percent to 14 percent. Republican Senators defending vulnerable seats are starting to panic fearing the worst.
I suspect that punters in the US stock casinos will be next to panic, as the realisation of a Democrat Socialist sweep of the White House, Senate and House, sinks in. Below, hopium triumphs, for now, over the coming new reality.
Asian shares at one-month highs on renewed U.S. stimulus hopes
October 8, 20201:00 AM By Swati Pandey SYDNEY
(Reuters) - A gauge of Asian shares climbed to a one-month high on Thursday, as renewed hopes for more U.S. stimulus helped restore investor confidence with markets now pricing in a Democratic victory during elections in November. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.3% for its fourth straight session of gains to a level not seen since early September.
Australia's benchmark index .AXJO jumped 1.1% to a one-month high helped by a larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus announced in federal budget on Tuesday night. New Zealand shares .NZ50 rallied on expectations of further monetary policy easing after the country's central bank said it was "actively considering" negative interest rates and a funding-for-lending programme.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 added 0.5%. Globally, risk assets have rallied since mid-March on a flood of central bank and government support for economies reeling from coronavirus-induced lockdowns world over. Expectations of more aggressive easing have further boosted sentiment.
“It’s another good day for risk and equities have powered up,” said Pepperstone strategist Chris Weston in Melbourne. “Some talk of fiscal has been in play again, but this has become tiresome and the markets don’t need a reason to rally, they just don’t need to hear negative news. So, in the absence of any, we see equities flying and U.S. Treasuries offered.”
Weston expects more monetary policy stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve before Christ-mas if the fiscal package comes in too small or too late. Aiding risk sentiment, U.S. President Donald Trump sent out a flurry of tweets on Wednesday urging Congress to pass piece-meal aid packages for targeted industries, small business and consumers, backpedaling from his earlier stance to unilaterally end negotiations.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-at-one-month-highs-on-renewed-u-s-stimulus-hopes-idUKKBN26S3O9
Republicans see ‘grim’ Senate map and edge away from Trump
By LAURIE KELLMAN and ALAN FRAM October 8, 2020
WASHINGTON (AP) — Vulnerable Republicans are increasingly taking careful, but clear, steps to distance themselves from President Donald Trump, one sign of a new wave of GOP anxiety that the president’s crisis-to-crisis reelection bid could bring down Senate candidates across the country.
In key races from Arizona to Texas, Kansas and Maine, Republican senators long afraid of the president’s power to strike back at his critics are starting to break with the president — particularly over his handling of the pandemic — in the final stretch of the election. GOP strategists say the distancing reflects a startling erosion of support over a brutal 10-day stretch for Trump, starting with his seething debate performance when he did not clearly denounce a white supremacist group through his hospitalization with COVID-19 and attempts to down-play the virus’s danger. Even the somewhat subtle moves away from Trump are notable.
For years, Republican law-makers have been loath to criticize the president — and have gone to great lengths to dodge questions — fearful of angering Trump supporters they need to win. But with control of the Senate in the balance, GOP lawmakers appear to be shifting quickly to do what’s necessary to save their seats. “The Senate map is looking exceedingly grim,” said one major GOP donor, Dan Eberhart. Republican prospects for holding its 53-47 majority have been darkening for months.
But re-cent upheaval at the White House has accelerated the trend, according to conversations with a half-dozen GOP strategists and campaign advisers, some of whom spoke on condition of an-onymity because they were not authorized to disclose internal deliberations.
More
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-donald-trump-senate-elections-arizona-601d626db3c1ccdc3432ad8fed8b56e7
Trump Sends Mixed Messages Over Covid-19 Stimulus
President had appeared to end a long-running bid by Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin to strike another stimulus deal
Updated Oct. 7, 2020 6:54 am ET
WASHINGTON—President Trump pulled the plug on ongoing bipartisan coronavirus relief talks in an abrupt move that jolted Wall Street and surprised lawmakers of both parties, but hours later called on Congress to approve a bill providing another direct check to many Americans. “I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill,” Mr. Trump wrote Tuesday on Twitter.
Mr. Trump’s tweets appeared to end the long-running effort between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to negotiate an agreement on another trillion-dollar-plus coronavirus relief deal. But late Tuesday Mr. Trump appeared to backtrack, calling on Congress to approve some additional assistance for airlines and a small-business aid program.
He also tweeted that Congress should pass a bill providing another direct check to many Americans. “If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now,” Mr. Trump tweeted.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-tells-negotiators-to-stop-covid-relief-talks-until-after-the-election-11602011258
In hurricane news, yet another storm is disrupting Gulf of Mexico oil production.
Oil prices edge up as Hurricane Delta approaches U.S. Gulf of Mexico
October 8, 20203:28 AM By Sonali Paul, Shu Zhang
MELBOURNE/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices inched up on Thursday as oil workers evacuated rigs in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Delta, though fuel demand concerns persisted on fading chances for a U.S. economic stimulus deal and a build in U.S. crude inventories.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures rose 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $39.98 a barrel at 0435 GMT, after falling 1.8% on Wednesday.
Brent crude LCOc1 futures rose 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $42.08 a barrel, after falling 1.6% on Wednesday. With Hurricane Delta forecast to intensify into a Category 3 storm with winds of up to 120 miles per hour (193 km per hour), oil producers have evacuated 183 offshore facilities and halted nearly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil output.
The Gulf of Mexico produced 1.65 million bpd in July, according to the U.S. government. The region, which accounts for 17% of U.S. crude output, has been hit by several storms over the past few months, each of which only briefly dented oil output. Hopes for a further pick-up in U.S. fuel demand faded as White House officials reiterated on Wednesday that “stimulus negotiations are off” a day after President Donald Trump halted talks on a broad relief package.
The possibility that there will be no upcoming economic support measures comes as govern-ment data on Wednesday showed demand for oil at U.S. refineries is 13.2% lower than a year earlier, underscoring the plunge in fuel demand from the disruptions caused by the corona-virus pandemic. [EIA/S]
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-edge-up-as-hurricane-delta-approaches-u-s-gulf-of-mexico-idUKKBN26T08G
Hurricane Delta to Strike Gulf Coast, Including Laura-Ravaged Louisiana;
Hurricane, Storm Surge Warnings Issued By weather.com meteorologists 3 hours ago
• Hurricane Delta is over the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to gain strength again through Thursday.
• Delta is expected to landfall along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast Friday.
• Storm surge, destructive winds and flooding rain are all expected.
• This could include areas ravaged by Hurricane Laura in late August.
---- The storm is moving to the northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Forecast Timing, Intensity With a bubble of somewhat warmer Gulf of Mexico water and lower wind shear in its path, Delta is expected to continue strengthening through Thursday night. Delta will also turn northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. As it draws nearer to the Gulf Coast, Delta's wind intensity could diminish somewhat due to increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds and cooler Gulf water.
Despite this weakening on approach, Delta is still forecast to be a formidable hurricane at landfall, most likely along the Louisiana or upper Texas coast Friday.
More
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-10-07-hurricane-delta-forecast-us-gulf-coast-yucatan-peninsula-0
In rump-EU news, is the German rebound over? Are soaring new SARS infections about to kill off the rump-EU’s stalled economy? It’s starting to look that way, and we still have a no deal Brexit to come January 1.
Dip in German industrial output casts doubt on strength of recovery
October 7, 20207:36 AM By Michael Nienaber
BERLIN (Reuters) - German industrial output edged down in August following three months of relatively strong increases, suggesting the recovery in Europe’s largest economy from the coronavirus shock is starting to lose steam. Industrial output fell by 0.2% on the month after an upwardly revised rise of 1.4% in July and a jump of 9.3% in June, figures released by the Federal Statistics Office on Wednesday showed. A Reuters poll had forecast an increase of 1.5% for August. Factories churned out fewer capital goods and consumer goods, with the slump particularly deep in vehicle production.
“At least a part of the fall in car output was due to more companies implementing their sum-mer shutdowns in August this year,” Andrew Kenningham from Capital Economics said. This one-off effect coupled with rising orders and upbeat sentiment surveys could suggest that industrial output will rise again in coming months, albeit at a probably slower pace.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-industrialoutput/dip-in-german-industrial-output-casts-doubt-on-strength-of-recovery-idUKKBN26S0QD?il=0
Finally, commodities fraud. Everyone loves a good commodities fraud, Singapore more than most. Is there an honest commodity dealer in Singapore?
Factbox: Commodities and energy trading firm scandals
October 7, 20207:24 AM By Reuters Staff (Reuters) - A number of financial scandals, including allegations of fraud and suspect deals, have hit the energy and commodities sector following the slump in oil prices sparked by the coronavirus crisis, adding to those from recent years.
Banks have tightened credit to the sector, in part due to troubles at Singapore-based Hin Leong Trading Pte Ltd, formerly one of Asia's largest fuel traders. Some banks, like ABN Amro ABNd.AS and the Swiss arm of BNP Paribas BNPP.PA, have exited trade and com-modity financing.
Below are some notable cases in the sector.
2020
Company: Agritrade International Pte Ltd
Base: Singapore
Summary: Agritrade International was placed under judicial management in February after it collapsed amid allegations of fraud. It owed $1.55 billion, including $983 million to at least 20 banks.
Companies: Hin Leong Trading Pte Ltd, Ocean Tankers (Pte) Ltd., Xihe Holdings Pte Ltd and four of Xihe’s special purpose vehicles
Base: Singapore
Summary: Several companies owned by Singaporean tycoon Oon Kuin Lim and his children were placed under court-led restructuring after Lim said he didn’t disclose $800 million of losses.[L3N2CB0XA]
The collapse of the companies has prompted multiple lawsuits among traders such as Unipec, Trafigura, and several banks over cargo claims and payments. Italy's UniCredit SpA CRDI.MI has sued Hin Leong and Glencore GLEN.L over a letter of credit, one of several the Singapore oil trader sought from lenders for oil purchases but used to pay debt instead.
Seven tankers of the near 150-strong fleet owned by the Lim family have been put up for sale.
Company: ZenRock Commodities Trading Pte Ltd
Base: Singapore
Summary: The Singapore High Court put ZenRock Commodities under interim judicial man-agement in May after one of its creditors HSBC Holdings PLC HSBA.L alleged "highly dis-honest transactions" at the firm. Zenrock owes more than $600 million to creditors. More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-commodities-companies-scandal/factbox-commodities-and-energy-trading-firm-scandals-idUKKBN26S0P0?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202020-10-07&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest
“How do you keep the natives off the booze long enough to pass the test?”
Prince Philip, to a Scottish driving instructor in 1995.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Regeneron antibodies in demand after Trump treatment, doctors seek more data
October 8, 202012:38 AM By Deena Beasley
(Reuters) - Patients are asking to join clinical trials of antibody-based COVID-19 drugs after U.S. President Donald Trump was treated last week with an experimental therapy from Re-generon Pharmaceuticals Inc REGN.O, and on Wednesday he promised to make it free to Americans while touting its benefits.
Medical experts said more data is needed to assess the treatment’s efficacy before wider use should be allowed. Trump was discharged from the hospital late on Monday, just a few days after being diag-nosed with COVID-19 that caused enough lung inflammation for blood oxygen levels to fall.
According to his doctor, blood tests on Monday detected infection-fighting antibodies, which a Regeneron spokesperson said were probably from the treatment.
The company said on Wednesday that it has submitted a request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for an emergency use authorization (EUA) for its antibody combination.
In a video shot outside the White House, Trump credited the Regeneron therapy for his feel-ing much better than when he was first diagnosed and said he would push for EUAs of that treatment and others like it.
Regeneron’s drug is a cocktail of two monoclonal antibodies - manufactured copies of antibod-ies that are one of the main weapons the immune system generates to fight infections. More https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-regeneron-pharms/regeneron-antibodies-in-demand-after-trump-treatment-doctors-seek-more-data-idUKKBN26S3N1?il=0
Germany's confirmed coronavirus cases rise by 4,058 to 310,144 - RKI
October 8, 20204:33 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany increased by 4,058 to 310,144, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on Thursday. The reported death toll rose by 16 to 9,578, the tally showed.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-cases/germanys-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-rise-by-4058-to-310144-rki-idUKKBN26T0E6?il=0
India's coronavirus infections rise to 6.84 million
October 8, 20205:13 AM
BENGALURU (Reuters) - India’s total coronavirus cases rose by 78,524 in the last 24 hours to 6.84 million on Thursday morning, data from the health ministry showed. Deaths from COVID-19 infections rose by 971 to 105,526, the ministry said. India’s death toll from the novel coronavirus rose past 100,000 on Saturday, only the third country in the world to reach that bleak milestone, after the United States and Brazil, and its epidemic shows no sign of abating.
Last week, India further eased restrictions and permitted states to open schools and movie theatres. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/indias-coronavirus-infections-rise-to-6-84-million-idUKKBN26T0GY
Brussels closes cafes and bars in new virus curbs
October 7, 2020
The Belgian capital took a step towards restoring its coronavirus lockdown Wednesday, when Brussels ordered cafes and bars to close for a month. Restaurants serving meals at table will remain open, but bars and drinking alcohol in public places will be banned until November 8, the regional government said.
This is the second time Brussels has imposed such a measure since the coronavirus outbreak, after a previous lockdown helped bring cases down. But new infections—as well as serious cases involving hospital admissions—are rising again, and regional authorities are tightening rules. Already, Belgium's new national government had ordered bars and cafes should close from 11pm, but regional president Rudi Vervoort decided this was not enough.
The Brussels capital region is home to a densely packed 1.2 million people and is the seat of the Belgian government and of both NATO and the European Union. In the past week, Belgium as a whole has recorded an average of 2,500 new coronavirus infections per day, up by 57 percent over the previous seven days.
Hospital admissions are also up 25.7 percent over the week, and more than 11 people are dying every day. With 10,092 deaths from a population of 11.2 million, Belgium is one of the worst hit countries.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-brussels-cafes-bars-virus-curbs.html
Even Mild Covid-19 Infections Can Make People Sick for Months
By Jason Gale October 7, 2020, 4:36 AM GMT+1
Covid-19 patients who experience even the mildest illness risk suffering symptoms for months, researchers in France found. Two-thirds of patients who had a mild-to-moderate case of Covid-19 reported symptoms 60 days after falling ill, when more than a third still felt sick or in a worse condition than when their coronavirus infection began.
Prolonged symptoms were more likely among patients aged 40 to 60 years and those who required hospitalization, according to staff at Tours University Hospital, who followed 150 non-critical patients from March to June. Their study, published Monday in the journal Clinical Microbiology and Infection, adds to evidence that a proportion of the 35 million people known to have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus worldwide will suffer lingering effects weeks to months later. Post–Covid clinics are opening in the pandemic’s wake to cater for an expanding population of so-called long-haulers -- survivors left with scarred lungs, chronic heart damage, post-viral fatigue and other persistent, debilitating conditions.
“We were able to assess the evolution of the disease and demonstrate that even the mildest presentation was associated with medium-term symptoms requiring follow up,” Claudia Carvalho-Schneider and colleagues wrote. “Thus, the Covid-19 pandemic will involve a care burden long after its end.” Covid Malaise Poses Economic Drag Long After Virus Abates Two months after developing Covid-19 symptoms, 66% of adult patients reported suffering from at least one of 62 complaints, mainly a loss of smell and taste, shortness of breath, and fatigue, the researchers found.
The study sought to identify the risk of longer symptom duration in patients with non-critical Covid-19, since much of the existing international research was based on survivors admitted to intensive care units, they said. Longer-ranging studies and clinical trials will be critical to elucidate the durability and depth of health consequences attributable to Covid-19 and how these may compare with other serious illnesses, Carlos del Rio, executive associate dean at Emory University School of Medicine, and colleagues wrote in an editorial Monday in the Journal of the American Medical Association that reviewed the coronavirus’s persistent effects.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-07/even-mildest-covid-risks-leaving-lingering-symptoms-months-later?srnd=premium-europe
Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines.
https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford Website.
https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker.
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19 https://rt.live/ Covid19info.live https://wuflu.live/
“People think there’s a rigid class system here, but Dukes have even been known to marry chorus girls. Some have even married Americans.”
Prince Philip, in 2000.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
A Common Plant Virus Is an Unlikely Ally in the War on Cancer
Researchers have seen promising results by injecting dog and mouse tumors with the cowpea mosaic virus. Now they’re aiming for a human trial. 10.05.2020 07:00 AM
Jack Hoopes spends a lot of time with dying dogs. A veterinary radiation specialist at Dart-mouth College, Hoopes has spent his decades-long career treating canine cancers with the lat-est experimental therapies as a pathway for developing human treatments. Recently, many of Hoopes’ furry patients have come to him with a relatively common oral cancer that will al-most certainly kill them within a few months if left untreated. Even if the cancer goes into remission after radiation treatment, there’s a very high chance it will soon reemerge.
For Hoopes, it’s a grim prognosis that’s all too familiar. But these pups are in luck. They’re patients in an experimental study exploring the efficacy of a new cancer treatment derived from a common plant virus. After receiving the viral therapy, several of the dogs had their tumors disappear entirely and lived into old age without recurring cancer. Given that around 85 percent of dogs with oral cancer will develop a new tumor within a year of radiation ther-apy, the results were striking. The treatment, Hoopes felt, had the potential to be a break-through that could save lives, both human and canine. “If a treatment works in dog cancer, it has a very good chance of working, at some level, in human patients,” says Hoopes.
The new cancer therapy is based on the cowpea mosaic virus, or CPMV, a pathogen that takes its name from the mottled pattern it creates on the leaves of infected cowpea plants, which are perhaps best known as the source of black-eyed peas. The virus doesn’t replicate in mam-mals like it does in plants, but as the researchers behind the therapy discovered, it still triggers an immune response that could be the key to more effective treatments for a wide variety of cancers. The idea is to use the virus to overcome one of the gnarliest problems in oncology:
A doctor’s best ally, their patient’s own immune system, doesn’t always recognize a cancerous cell when it sees one. It’s not the body’s fault; cancer cells have properties that trick the immune system into thinking nothing is wrong. Oncologists have puzzled over this for nearly a century, and it's only in the past decade that researchers have really started to get a grip on cancer’s immu-nosuppressive properties.
Immunotherapy, which has emerged as one of the most promising types of cancer treatment, is all about developing techniques to help the body’s immune sys-tem recognize cancerous cells so it can fight back. It’s the medical equivalent of putting a big flashing neon sign on the tumor that reads “ATTACK HERE.” And that’s where the cowpea mosaic virus could help. To treat his canine patients, Hoopes typically injects 200 micrograms of virus-like particles—about three times the dose of a typical flu vaccine—directly into their tumors.
These particles are not live cowpea mosaic viruses; rather, they’re viruses that have had their genetic material removed or have been inactivated so they can’t replicate.
More
US Politics Betting Odds
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
The Great Chicago Fire Starts. The Great Chicago
The fire killed approximately 300 people, destroyed roughly 3.3 square miles (9 km2) of the city, and left more than 100,000 residents homeless.[3] The fire began in a neighborhood southwest of the city center. A long period of hot, dry, windy conditions, and the wooden construction prevalent in the city led to the conflagration. The fire leapt the south branch of the Chicago River and destroyed much of central Chicago and then leapt the main branch of the river, consuming the Near North Side.
----There has been much speculation over the years on a single start to the fire. The most popular tale blames Mrs. O'Leary's cow, who allegedly knocked over a lantern; others state that a group of men were gambling inside the barn and knocked over a lantern.[6] Still other speculation suggests that the blaze was related to other fires in the Midwest that day.[1] The fire's spread was aided by the city's use of wood as the predominant building material in a style called balloon frame. More than two-thirds of the structures in Chicago at the time of the fire were made entirely of wood, with most of the houses and buildings being topped with highly flammable tar or shingle roofs. All of the city's sidewalks and many roads were also made of wood.[6] Compounding this problem, Chicago received only 1 inch (25 mm) of rain from July 4 to October 9, causing severe drought conditions before the fire, while strong southwest winds helped to carry flying embers toward the heart of the city.[1]:144
More
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chicago_Fire
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