By Reuters Staff
TOKYO
(Reuters) - Britain and Japan formally signed a trade agreement on Friday,
marking the UK’s first big post-Brexit deal on trade, as it continues to
struggle to agree on a deal with its closest trading partners in the European
Union.
“How fitting it is to be in the land of the rising sun to welcome in the
dawn of a new era of free trade,” British Trade Secretary Liz Truss told
reporters after the signing ceremony in Tokyo.
“This is the first new free trade deal to be agreed since the UK once
again became an independent trading nation.”
The signing comes after Truss and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu
Motegi reached a broad agreement in September.
Motegi pointed out that the signing came about in just four and a half
months since the start of negotiations and said, “This is a manifestation of
the determination of Japan and the United Kingdom to carry on vigorously
promoting free trade”.
Britain has said the deal meant 99% of its exports to Japan would be
tariff-free, and that it could increase trade by 15.2 billion pounds in the
long run, compared with 2018.
The deal removes Britain’s tariffs on Japanese cars in stages to zero in
2026, which is the same as in the Japan-EU trade agreement.
Motegi said after the signing that he had agreed with Truss to work
together so that the deal will come into force on January 1, 2021.
He also said Japan welcomes Britain’s interest in joining the 11-member
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)
free trade deal, and intends to provide necessary support.
Japan is already a member of the CPTPP, which also links Canada,
Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and
Vietnam.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-japan-trade/britain-signs-first-major-post-brexit-trade-deal-with-japan-idUKKBN2780AM?il=0
British Airways warns of
deepening travel slump as losses mount October 22,
20207:25 AM By Sarah
Young
LONDON (Reuters) - British Airways owner IAG
ICAG.L warned the travel
slump from the coronavirus pandemic had deepened, forcing it to axe even more
of its winter flying schedule after it reported on Thursday a quarterly loss of
1.3 billion euros ($1.54 billion).
The loss was far larger than the 920 million
euros forecast by analysts, as passenger numbers plunged and it struggled to
even half-fill its planes, illustrating the scale of the challenge faced by
IAG’s new boss, Luis Gallego, who took over in September.
As a second wave of COVID-19 infections
spreads across Europe, airlines are facing a bleak winter and IAG joins
Lufthansa LHAG.DE ,
Ryanair RYA.I and easyJet EZJ.L in cutting back already
anaemic schedules.
IAG, which also operates Iberia and Vueling
in Spain and Aer Lingus in Ireland, said that for the fourth quarter - which includes
the normally busy Christmas period - it would fly no more than 30% of the
capacity it flew a year earlier, lower than previous guidance of 40%.
With less flying ahead, the group warned it no longer expected to reach
breakeven in terms of net cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter, but
said that liquidity was strong.
The company has raised 2.74 billion euros from shareholders via a rights
issue and received the funds in early October, raising its total liquidity to
9.3 billion euros.
With less flying ahead, the group warned it no longer expected to reach
breakeven in terms of net cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter, but
said that liquidity was strong.
The company has raised 2.74 billion euros from shareholders via a rights
issue and received the funds in early October, raising its total liquidity to
9.3 billion euros.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iag-outlook/british-airways-warns-of-deepening-travel-slump-as-losses-mount-idUKKBN2770NB
Belgium dusts off 1666 charter
for post-Brexit fishing rights October 22, 20203:04
PM
BRUGES,
Belgium (Reuters) - Belgium may resort to a 17th century charter granted by a
British king to retain fishing rights in Britain’s coastal waters if London and
the European Union fail to agree a trade deal by the end of this year.
With just over two months until Britain ends its transition period out
of the EU, Belgium will lose access to much of the area it fishes in the North
Sea if there is no deal.
However, a document in Latin issued to Flanders in July 1666 by
Britain’s King Charles II gives 50 Flemish fishing boats access to British
waters for perpetuity.
“Knowing how Britain is attached to old habits and old laws, it may have
a chance,” said Jan d’Hondt, the head archivist in the port city of Bruges, as
he showed the large, yellowing paper document.
Charles II signed the document as a gesture to the city that gave him
refuge after his father was beheaded during England’s Civil War in 1649, granting
the citizens of Bruges, or “Civitas Brugensis”, the right to use 50 fishing
boats in British waters.
While
today Belgian boats no longer sail from Bruges but from nearby Zeebrugge, the
document known as the Privilege is still valid, according to Hilde Crevits,
economy minister of the Belgian region of Flanders.
“More
than half of our fishing income comes from fish caught in British waters. So if
we lose access to that British water or if our quotas go too far down, it could
be the death knell for our fisheries,” Crevits told Reuters TV.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-belgium-privilege/belgium-dusts-off-1666-charter-for-post-brexit-fishing-rights-idUKKBN27722D
Up next, boom time for commodities says
Goldie. Well if they say so, but it’s more of a case of gold and silver rather
than “commodities.”
I also expect gold and silver to rally
as an insurance hedge against what comes next, no matter which party is
unfortunate to win the November 3rd US election. We long ago ran out
of good currency choices in the Great Nixonian Error of fiat money.
We’ll be lucky if we get out of this
decade without a serious world war. But some physical, fully paid up gold and
silver, is always a good insurance policy against the folly of modern socialist
politicians.
Commodities headed for bull
market in 2021 on inflation fears, stimulus - Goldman Sachs October 22,
20207:03 AM
(Reuters) - A weaker U.S. dollar, rising
inflation risks and demand driven by additional fiscal and monetary stimulus
from major central banks will spur a bull market for commodities in 2021,
Goldman Sachs said on Thursday.
The bank forecast a return of 28% over a
12-month period on the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), with a
17.9% return for precious metals, 42.6% for energy, 5.5% for industrial metals
and a negative return of 0.8% for agriculture.
Markets are now increasingly concerned about
the return of inflation, the Wall Street bank said.
Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in
developed market economies continue to drive interest rates lower and create demand
for hedging the tail risks of inflation, lifting demand for precious metals,
Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Goldman forecast gold prices XAU= at an average of $1,836 per
ounce in 2020 and $2,300 per ounce in 2021, and expects silver prices XAG= to be at around $22 per
ounce in 2020 and $30 per ounce next year.
---- Gold, widely viewed as a hedge against
inflation and currency debasement, has gained 26% this year, benefiting from
unprecedented global stimulus and near-zero interest rates.
Non-energy commodities could see an “immediate upside” as the market
balances tighten ahead of expectations on strong demand from China and
weather-driven risks, the Goldman Sachs analysts said.
The bank maintained a “neutral” view on commodities in the near term and
“overweight” in the medium term.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-goldmansachs-research-commodities/commodities-headed-for-bull-market-in-2021-on-inflation-fears-stimulus-goldman-sachs-idUKKBN2770LL
The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S.
and China Headed for War? In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a
ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.
Graham Allison September 24, 2015 When Barack Obama meets
this week with Xi Jinping during the Chinese president’s first state visit
to America, one item probably won’t be on their agenda: the possibility that
the United States and China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In
policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise.
And yet 100 years on, World War I offers
a sobering reminder of man’s capacity for folly. When we say that war is
“inconceivable,” is this a statement about what is possible in the world—or
only about what our limited minds can conceive? In 1914, few could imagine
slaughter on a scale that demanded a new category: world war. When war ended
four years later, Europe lay in ruins: the Kaiser gone, the Austro-Hungarian
Empire dissolved, the Russian Tsar overthrown by the Bolsheviks, France bled
for a generation, and England shorn of its youth and treasure. A millennium in
which Europe had been the political center of the world came to a crashing
halt.
The defining question about global order for this
generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap.
The Greek historian’s
metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a
ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did
Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both
nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs has concluded after analyzing
the historical record . In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the
result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful
adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but
also the challenged.
Based on the current trajectory, war between the United
States and China in the decades ahead is not just possible, but much more
likely than recognized at the moment. Indeed, judging by the historical record,
war is more likely than not. Moreover, current underestimations and
misapprehensions of the hazards inherent in the U.S.-China relationship
contribute greatly to those hazards. A risk associated with Thucydides’s Trap
is that business as usual—not just an unexpected, extraordinary event—can
trigger large-scale conflict. When a rising power is threatening to displace a
ruling power, standard crises that would otherwise be contained, like the
assassination of an archduke in 1914, can initiate a cascade of reactions that,
in turn, produce outcomes none of the parties would otherwise have chosen.
More
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/
Finally, so you want to volunteer to be
a vaccine tester? Just how safe will all the rushed into service new SARS
vaccines be?
South Korea sticks to flu vaccine
plan despite safety fears after 25 die October 22,
20203:07 AM By Hyonhee
Shin , Sangmi Cha
SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean officials
refused on Thursday to suspend a seasonal influenza inoculation effort, despite
growing calls for a halt, including an appeal from a key group of doctors,
after the deaths of at least 25 of those vaccinated.
Health authorities said they found no direct
links between the deaths and the vaccines.
At least 22 of the dead, including a
17-year-old boy, were part of a campaign to inoculate 19 million teenagers and
senior citizens for free, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency
(KDCA) said.
“The number of deaths has increased, but our
team sees low possibility that the deaths resulted from the shots,” the
agency’s director, Jeong Eun-kyeong, told parliament.
South Korea ordered a fifth more flu
vaccines this year to ward off what it calls a “twindemic”, or the prospect
that people with flu develop coronavirus complications and overburden hospitals
in winter.
“I understand and regret that people are
concerned about the vaccine,” said Health Minister Park Neung-hoo, who
confirmed the free programme would go ahead.
“We’re looking into the causes but will
again thoroughly examine the entire process in which various government
agencies are involved, from production to distribution.”
Vaccine providers include domestic firms
such as GC Pharma, SK Bioscience, Korea Vaccine and Boryung Biopharma Co. Ltd.,
a unit of Boryung Pharm Co. Ltd. 003850.KS , along with
France's Sanofi SASY.PA .
They supply both the free programme and paid
services that together aim to vaccinate about 30 million of a population of 52
million.
Of the 25 dead, 10 received products from SK
Bioscience, 5 each from Boryung and GC Pharma, one from Korea Vaccine and four
from Sanofi.
All four domestic firms declined to comment,
while Sanofi did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
It was not immediately clear if any of the
vaccines made in South Korea were exported, or if those supplied by Sanofi were
also being used elsewhere.
The Korean Medical Association, an influential
grouping of doctors, urged the government to halt all inoculation programmes
for now, to allay public concerns and ensure the vaccines were safe.
----A separate paid programme allows buyers
to pick from a larger pool of firms that make free vaccines and others.
The most deaths in South Korea linked to
seasonal flu vaccinations was six in 2005, the Yonhap news agency said.
Officials have said comparisons to previous years are tough, since more people
are taking the vaccine this year.
Kim Myung-suk, 65, is among a growing number
of South Koreans who decided to pay for a vaccine of their choice, despite
being eligible for a free dose.
“Though just a few people died so far, the
number is growing and that makes me uneasy,” she told Reuters in the capital,
Seoul. “So I’m getting a shot somewhere else and will pay for it.”
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea-flushot/south-korea-sticks-to-flu-vaccine-plan-despite-safety-fears-after-25-die-idUKKBN27705B?il=0
Winter Watch .
The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and
northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern
hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually
expands back towards its winter maximum.
Over simplified, a rapid expansion of
both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving norther
hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the
ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record
Atlantic hurricane season.
Adding to this year’s winter concerns,
a developing La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. While the La Nina effect
on the winter weather of western Europe is weaker than that of an El Nino
pattern, which tends to make for a milder winter, a La Nina pattern tends to
make for a colder winter.
The early take, Eur-Asia turned snowy
fast in mid-October. North America is now playing catchup. The Arctic sea ice
expansion is slow, but with the vastly expanded snow cover, will probably now
speed up.
US National Ice
Center.
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
Gold would have value if for no other reason than that it
enables a citizen to fashion his financial escape from the state.
William F. Rickenbacker
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Biden Raps Trump for Deaths;
Singapore Green Lane: Virus Update Bloomberg News October
22, 2020, 11:29 PM GMT+1 Updated on October 23, 2020, 5:26 AM GMT+1
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden opened their
final debate by blaming U.S. deaths
The
surge in U.S. cases mirrors those seen in the Europe, where governments have
started deploying curfews and other restrictions more widely. The outbreak
gained momentum with France reporting more than 40,000 new cases step up Remdesivir, given to President Trump as a Covid-19
treatment, received approval questioned
Key
Developments: Global Tracker : Cases pass 41.6
million; deaths exceed 1.14 millionCovid-19 deaths are increasing in the U.S. after
months of decline Pelosi, Mnuchin to talk
stimulus again as Trump hints at failure Governments around Europe
began to deploy curfews more widely Europe facing dearth of
medical staff in test of virus readiness Sweden’s Lax Covid Policy Is
No Slam Dunk for Industrial
Sector ECB Seen Preparing More Aid as Spreading Virus
Derails Economy Investors brace for barrage of Covid
vaccine data to roil market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-22/illinois-ohio-hit-highs-fda-approves-remdesivir-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
India's coronavirus cases tally
hits 7.8 million October 23, 20205:27
AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany
increased by 11,242 to 403,291, data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for
infectious diseases showed on Friday.
The reported death toll rose by 49 to 9,954, the tally showed.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-cases/germanys-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-rise-by-11242-to-403291-rki-idUKKBN2780FI?il=0
Germany issues travel warnings
for ski regions in Austria, Switzerland, Italy October 22,
20209:30 AM By Reuters Staff
BERLIN
(Reuters) - Germany issued travel warnings for popular ski regions in Austria,
Italy and Switzerland on Thursday aiming to contain the spread of the
coronavirus after the country reported more than 10,000 new daily cases for the
first time.
The RKI public health institute said Germany must prepare for an
uncontrolled spread of the virus.
“The situation has become very serious overall,” Lothar Wieler, head of
the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases told a news conference.
“We still have a chance to slow the spread of the pandemic.”
However, that required people to stick to the rules, he said. A change
in strategy was not planned.
Under the warning, travellers returning from high risk regions to
Germany must quarantine for 10 days. They are allowed to get a coronavirus test
from the fifth day. If the test is negative, they can leave the quarantine.
While Germany’s infection rates are lower than in much of Europe, they
have been accelerating and the number of confirmed cases last rose by 11,287 to
392,049. Germany’s death toll stands at 9,905.
On Wednesday, Health Minister Jens Spahn became the latest prominent
politician to have caught the virus. He placed himself in home quarantine after
testing positive.
Berlin issued new travel warnings for Switzerland, Ireland, Poland, most
of Austria and some Italian regions including the popular skiing region of
South Tyrol after surging numbers of new coronavirus cases there. They take
effect from Oct. 24.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-austria/germany-issues-travel-warnings-for-ski-regions-in-austria-switzerland-italy-idUKKBN27710L?il=0
Case Records Set Across Europe;
India Vaccine Plan: Virus Update October 21, 2020, 11:40 PM GMT+1 Updated on October 22, 2020,
12:11 PM GMT+1
Poland joined Germany, Hungary and Romania in reporting a
record gain in coronavirus infections, while Spain and France became the first
countries in Western Europe to pass 1 million cases.
India’s government is budgeting $7
billion to vaccinate the nation’s 1.3 billion people. AstraZeneca Plc and
Johnson & Johnson may resume U.S. trials as soon as this week after the
companies previously halted testing when participants fell ill.
Hospitalizations
in the U.S. have reached a two-month high, led by the Midwest. New York state’s
new cases exceeded
2,000 for the first time since May.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/cases-surpass-41-million-europe-outbreak-worsens-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus
Swiss fear rise in COVID-19 cases
could overburden hospitals 21 October 2020
GENEVA (AP) — The Swiss health minister said coronavirus case counts and
hospitalizations were doubling every week, warning of the prospect of overburdened
hospitals as Switzerland has gone from one of the least-affected countries in
Europe to one of the worst-hit in just three weeks.
Alain Berset made the comments after the country of 8.5 million tallied
on Wednesday a record 5,583 new cases over the latest 24 hours, obliterating
the previous one-day record — set two days earlier — by about 14%.
He said the government will act again if new restrictive measures
announced over the weekend don’t help lower the count.
“The situation is worsening, and worsening fast,” Berset told a news
conference in Bern, the capital.
“Three weeks ago, we had a situation that was among the best on the
European continent,” he said. “Three weeks later, we have one of the worst
situations as far as Europe goes.”
Europe has faced a punishing second wave in recent weeks and has again
become one of the epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic. It tallied a record
927,000 confirmed cases over the last week.
Based on a 14-day moving average, Switzerland now counts about 394 cases
per 100,000 people, he said.
“A month ago, it was less than 60,” Berset said, alluding to a previous
level at which Swiss authorities had set as a warning threshold.
More
https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-alain-berset-europe-switzerland-europe-77368aeabeccd45263f9abe542d699d0
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
We have gold because we cannot trust governments.
Herbert Hoover
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
No technology update
today. More tomorrow.
US Politics Betting Odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Another weekend and
the (thankfully) penultimate weekend before the colourful (?) US election. What
did poor Americans, and the rest of us, do to deserve the horrible choices of 2016
and 2020? Have a great weekend everyone.
With the exception only of the period of the gold standard,
practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue
money to defraud and plunder the people.
Friedrich August von Hayek
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