33 Years On From Black Friday. China.

Baltic Dry Index. 1477 -84  Brent Crude 42.80

Spot Gold 1902

Coronavirus Cases 19/10/20 World 40,160,232

Deaths 1,116,671 

“We hold these truths to be self evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness outside of the EUSSR.”

With grateful thanks to the writers of the US Declaration of Independence. 

With about two weeks to go to the never boring US elections, we open today with a fresh look at Asia, where this old dinosaur market watcher, doesn’t like what he sees from a newly aggressive China.

With the USA in political and coronavirus turmoil, Europe facing a no deal Brexit, and an out of control surging Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing seems to be flexing its muscles, preparing for a weaker Biden presidency.

Asian markets jump on vaccine, U.S. aid hopes; gains capped by China data

October 19, 20201:46 AM  By Swati Pandey

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian markets advanced toward a recent 2-1/2-year peak on Monday powered by hopes of a U.S fiscal package and expectations of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year, though weaker-than-expected Chinese data capped gains.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed 0.6% for its second straight day of gains, paring back slightly following third-quarter gross domestic product data from China.

The index has risen in eight of the last 10 sessions amid a rally in risk assets buoyed by hopes of a coronavirus vaccine and expectations of a so-called “blue wave”, which would see the Democrats claim victory in November’s elections.

Chinese shares started higher though the blue-chip index .CSI300 pared gains after China's GDP data missed forecasts, though separate monthly indicators pointed to an expansion in economic activity.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.9% in July-September from a year earlier, slower than the median forecast of 5.2%.

Monthly indicators beat forecasts - industrial output accelerated 6.9% in September from a year earlier, when analysts were looking for a 5.8% gain from a 5.6% rise in August. Retail sales edged up 3.3% last month from a year earlier against expectations for 1.8% growth.

“The rebound in Q3 GDP was less strong than expected, but was still a decent 4.9% YoY. September data beat expectations, suggesting a pickup in momentum towards the latter part of Q3,” said Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy for Asia at Westpac in Singapore.

---- Boosting overall sentiment, drugmaker Pfizer Inc PFE.N said on Friday it could have a coronavirus vaccine ready in the United States by the end of this year.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 jumped 0.6% in Asian trading after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday she was optimistic legislation on a wide-ranging coronavirus relief package could be pushed through before the election.

But with her negotiating partner, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in the Middle East until Tuesday, such a timeframe would seem to be overly optimistic, analysts said.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-markets-jump-on-vaccine-u-s-aid-hopes-gains-capped-by-china-data-idUKKBN27401R?il=0

Oil prices decline after China economic data disappoints

October 19, 20201:43 AM  By Florence Tan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday after reports that China’s third-quarter economic growth did not rise as much as expected, underscoring concerns that surging coronavirus cases globally are impacting demand in the world’s largest oil importer.

The world’s second-largest economy in the third quarter expanded by 4.9% from a year earlier, missing analyst expectations, government data showed. Refiners in China, the world’s second-largest oil user, slowed their processing rates in September and industrial metal imports, underpinned by government stimulus, were lower.

---- The Chinese data showed growth in goods and services is softening while the data on crude processing and industrial metals output, given a lifeline from fiscal stimulus, were “disappointing”, said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC).

“We’re likely going to see prices being soft for the rest of the day,” Lee said.

China’s oil-buying frenzy earlier this year is expected to slow in the fourth quarter amid high inventories and limited import quotas for independent refiners.

OCBC’s Lee added that investors are focusing on the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of the OPEC+ group happening later on Monday.

OPEC+ consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and producer allies such as Russia. The JMMC may decide whether it will delay plans reduce its current supply cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2 million bpd starting in January.

Prices are unlikely to rally on a delay since that has been priced in by the market, Lee said.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-decline-after-china-economic-data-disappoints-idUKKBN27401L?il=0

China warns U.S. it may detain Americans over prosecutions - WSJ

October 17, 202011:53 PM  By Reuters Staff

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Chinese government has warned Washington it may detain Americans in China in response to the Justice Department’s prosecution of Chinese military-affiliated scholars, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.

The newspaper, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, said Chinese officials had issued repeated warnings through multiple channels to U.S. government officials.

The paper said China’s message was the United States should end prosecutions of Chinese scholars in U.S. courts, or Americans in China could find themselves in violation of Chinese law.

A State Department advisory on Sept. 14 warning against travel to China said the Chinese government uses arbitrary detention and exit bans for U.S. citizens and others “to gain bargaining leverage over foreign governments.”

---- In July, the Justice Department said the FBI had arrested three Chinese nationals for allegedly concealing memberships in the Peoples Liberation Army when applying for visas to conduct research at U.S. academic institutions.

Last month, the United States said it had revoked visas for more than 1,000 Chinese nationals under a presidential measure denying entry to students and researchers deemed security risks, a move China called a violation of human rights.

At the time, a State Department spokeswoman said the United States continued to welcome “legitimate students and scholars from China who do not further the Chinese Communist Party’s goals of military dominance.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-china/china-warns-u-s-it-may-detain-americans-over-prosecutions-wsj-idUKKBN2720XN?il=0

Taiwan says diplomat sent to hospital after China spat in Fiji

October 19, 20204:20 AM  By Reuters Staff

TAIPEI (Reuters) - A Taiwanese diplomat ended up in hospital in Fiji this month after two Chinese diplomats stormed into a reception trying to gather information on who was attending, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Monday, in an unusual escalation of tensions.

China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, has recently ramped up pressure on Taipei to accept Chinese sovereignty, including sending fighter jets near the democratically-run island.

The Pacific is a major source of competition between the two, where Taiwan has formal diplomatic relations with four countries, though not Fiji. China says Taiwan is one of its provinces, with no right to full ties with foreign countries.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said the incident happened on the evening of Oct. 8 at a Taiwan national day reception organised by Taiwan’s representative office in Fiji, where two Chinese diplomats tried to force their way in to take pictures and collect information on who was attending.

Violence ensued after Taiwanese diplomats tried to prevent them from entering, and a Taiwanese diplomat was sent to hospital with a head injury, the ministry said.

Fiji police forced the Chinese diplomats from the venue, who later said it was them who were attacked by Taiwanese diplomats, the ministry added.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-taiwan-china-fiji/taiwan-says-diplomat-sent-to-hospital-after-china-spat-in-fiji-idUKKBN27409S

In other news, today is the 33^rd anniversary of that infamous Black Monday stock market crash.

It couldn’t happen again now since the central banksters have discovered multiple Magic Money Trees, enabling them buy up all stocks and bonds in every sell-off since 2008.

In America, the central banksters even went so far as to buy up all the bonds of the bankrupt car rental company Hertz, as part of its “no billionaire left behind” 2020 program.

Black Monday (1987)

Black Monday is the name commonly attached to the global, sudden, severe, and largely unexpected^[1] stock market crash on October 19, 1987. In Australia and New Zealand, the day is also referred to as Black Tuesday because of the time zone difference from the United States.

All of the twenty-three major world markets experienced a sharp decline in October 1987. When measured in United States dollars, eight markets declined by 20 to 29%, three by 30 to 39% (Malaysia, Mexico and New Zealand), and three by more than 40% (Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore).^[2][A] The least affected was Austria (a fall of 11.4%) while the most affected was Hong Kong with a drop of 45.8%. Out of twenty-three major industrial countries, nineteen had a decline greater than 20%.^[3] Worldwide losses were estimated at US$1.7 trillion.^[4] The severity of the crash sparked fears of extended economic instability^[5] or even a reprise of the Great Depression.^[6]

The degree to which the stock market crashes spread to the wider economy (the "real economy") was directly related to the monetary policy each nation pursued in response. The central banks of the United States, West Germany and Japan provided market liquidity to prevent debt defaults among financial institutions, and the impact on the real economy was relatively limited and short-lived. However, refusal to loosen monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand had sharply negative and relatively long-term consequences for both financial markets and the real economy in New Zealand.^[7]

More

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

Finally, a view of the future of the next few years? Well maybe, but with trillions and trillions of new global fiat currency debt, maybe not.

 

The Long Shadow of the Pandemic: 2024 and Beyond

Even when the world returns to ‘normal,’ the legacy of Covid-19 will transform everything from wages and health care to political attitudes and global supply chains.

By Nicholas Christakis  Oct. 16, 2020 10:56 am ET

----But our interventions have only been able to mitigate, not stop, the pandemic. Once the SARS-CoV-2 virus had established itself in our species, after emerging in China in November 2019, the outcome was inevitable: It would spread across the whole planet—and linger among us forever.

Many hope and expect that a vaccine will save us. But a vaccine won’t give us an early exit. With all the disparate vaccine trials under way, we will eventually invent several vaccines, of varying effectiveness—just not in time to make a major difference in the primary course of the pandemic. After all, invention of a vaccine is just the first step. The pharmaceutical must then be manufactured, distributed and—most important—accepted by substantial numbers of people world-wide. But vaccine uptake may not be rapid or widespread, especially if its safety is in doubt.

A vaccine will probably not be widely deployed before the U.S. achieves herd immunity—a level of infection in a population, roughly 40% for SARS-CoV-2, that limits the further epidemic potential of a pathogen. We are likely to reach that point by 2022 no matter what we do. To be clear, however, vaccines would still be enormously valuable to protect uninfected people even then.

Either way, with a good vaccine or without one, Americans will live in an acutely changed world until 2022—wearing masks, avoiding crowded places and limiting travel, at least if they wish to avoid getting or spreading the virus. This is the immediate pandemic period.

For some time after we reach either herd immunity or have a widely distributed vaccine, people will still be recovering from the overall clinical, psychological, social and economic shock of the pandemic and the adjustments it required, likely through 2024. This lingering response, typical of past serious epidemics, will demarcate the intermediate period. Then, gradually, things will return to “normal,” albeit in a world with some persistent changes. Around 2024, the post-pandemic period will begin.

More

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-shadow-of-the-pandemic-2024-and-beyond-11602860214?mod=mhp

 Winter Watch.

The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually expands back towards its winter maximum.

Over simplified, a rapid expansion of both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving norther hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record Atlantic hurricane season.

Adding to this year’s winter concerns, a developing La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. While the La Nina effect on the winter weather of western Europe is weaker than that of an El Nino pattern, which tends to make for a milder winter, a La Nina pattern tends to make for a colder winter.

US National Ice Center.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

“It’s a good idea to save your money. One day it might be worth something again.”

Mad Magazine.

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Global coronavirus cases surpass the 40 million milestone

October 19, 20205:13 AM  By Shaina Ahluwalia, Roshan Abraham

(Reuters) - Worldwide coronavirus cases crossed 40 million on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, as the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere fuelled a resurgence in the spread of the disease.

The Reuters tally is based on official reporting by individual countries. Experts believe the true numbers of both cases and deaths are likely much higher, given deficiencies in testing and potential under-reporting by some countries.

The Reuters data shows the pace of the pandemic continues to pick up. It took just 32 days to go from 30 million global cases to 40 million, compared with the 38 days it took to get from 20 to 30 million, the 44 days between 10 and 20 million, and the three months it took to reach 10 million cases from when the first cases were reported in Wuhan, China, in early January.

Record one-day increases in new infections were seen at the end of last week, with global coronavirus cases rising above 400,000 for the first time.

There were an average of around 347,000 cases each day over the past week, compared with 292,000 in the first week of October.

The United States, India, and Brazil remain the worst affected countries in the world. COVID-19 cases in North, Central, and South America represent about 47.27% or nearly half of global cases.

Around 247 cases are seen per 10,000 people in the United States. For India and Brazil, those numbers stand at 55 cases and 248 cases per 10,000 people respectively.

New cases are growing at over 150,000 a day in Europe, as many countries including Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Poland, Ukraine, Cyprus, and the Czech Republic have reported record daily increases in the number of coronavirus infections.

Europe currently accounts for over 17% of the global cases and nearly 22% of the deaths related to the virus worldwide.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-global-cases/global-coronavirus-cases-surpass-the-40-million-milestone-idUKKBN2740CE?il=0

Pelosi, Mnuchin Talk Stimulus; Victoria Eases Up: Virus Update

October 17, 2020, 11:52 PM GMT+1 Updated on October 18, 2020, 6:28 AM GMT+1

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had a lengthy talk Saturday night about efforts to craft a stimulus package to help the U.S. economy weather the impact of the coronavirus.

Victoria, the Australian state worst hit by the coronavirus outbreak, announced an easing of restrictions on Sunday, but left key sectors of the economy shuttered until next month to ensure community transmission is further contained.

Even as new U.S. cases jumped by the most since late July, President Donald Trump, at campaign rallies on Saturday, pushed states such as Michigan to lift emergency measures. Daily cases in France rose to a record 32,427. China reported 13 new infections on Oct. 17, all imported, while New Zealand reported the first community case in three weeks. India added more than 60,000 cases for a fifth consecutive day.

Key Developments:

• Global Tracker: Cases top 39.6 million; deaths exceed 1.1 million
• Europe cracks down with curbs in London and Paris
• Dr. Reddy’s and Russia to start Sputnik vaccine test
• Vaccine trial ailments raise questions about method
• Who’s succeeding against the coronavirus and why: QuickTake

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-17/u-s-reports-over-69-000-cases-most-since-july-virus-update?srnd=coronavirus

Europe crosses 150,000 daily coronavirus cases mark, a week after reporting 100,000 daily cases

October 17, 20206:13 PM By Anurag Maan

(Reuters) - Europe surpassed 150,000 daily coronavirus cases on Friday just a week after reporting 100,000 cases for the first time, according to Reuters tally, with countries such as France, Germany reporting record daily numbers of infections this week.

Much of Europe has tightened curbs including measures such as shutting or ordering early closing of bars, but now the surging infection rates are also testing governments’ resolve to keep schools and non-COVID medical care going.

Globally, cases rose by more than 400,000 for the first time late on Friday, a record one-day increase.

As a region, Europe is reporting more daily cases than India, Brazil and the United States combined. The increase is partly explained by far more testing than was done in the first wave of the pandemic.

The United Kingdom, France, Russia, Netherlands, Germany and Spain accounted for about half of Europe’s new cases this week, according to a Reuters tally.

France, which is reporting the highest seven-day average of new cases in Europe with 21,210 infections per day, reported a record 30,621 cases on Thursday, according to the tally.

In the past seven days it has registered nearly 142,800 new infections, more than the 132,430 registered during the entire two-month lockdown from mid-March to mid-May.

French President Emmanuel Macron ordered a third of France’s population be put under nightly curfew on Wednesday, with the measure taking effect from Saturday.

More

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-europe-cases/europe-crosses-150000-daily-coronavirus-cases-mark-a-week-after-reporting-100000-daily-cases-idUKKBN2720QT?il=0

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.

World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Stanford Website. https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live 

https://wuflu.live/

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

 

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Molecular design strategy reveals near infrared-absorbing hydrocarbon

Date:  October 17, 2020

Source:  Nagoya University

Summary:  The lessons learned from a near infrared absorbing, bowl-shaped molecule made only from hydrogen and carbon atoms offers insights for future organic conductors.

Nagoya University researchers have synthesized a unique molecule with a surprising property: it can absorb near infrared light. The molecule is made only of hydrogen and carbon atoms and offers insights for making organic conductors and batteries. The details were published in the journal Nature Communications.

Organic chemist Hiroshi Shinokubo and physical organic chemist Norihito Fukui of Nagoya University work on designing new, interesting molecules using organic, or carbon-containing, compounds. In the lab, they synthesized an aromatic hydrocarbon called methoxy-substituted as-indacenoterrylene. This molecule has a unique structure, as its methoxy groups are located internally rather than at its periphery.

"Initially, we wanted to see if this hydrocarbon demonstrated novel phenomena due to its unique structure," says Fukui.

But during their investigations, the researchers discovered they could convert it into a new bowl-shaped hydrocarbon called as-indacenoterrylene.

"We were surprised to find that this new molecule exhibits near infrared absorption up to 1300 nanometers," Shinokubo explains.

What's unique about as-indacenoterrylene is not that it absorbs near infrared light. Other hydrocarbons can do this as well. as-indacenoterrylene is interesting because it does this despite being made of only 34 carbon and 14 hydrogen atoms, without containing other kinds of stabilizing atoms at its periphery.

When the scientists conducted electrochemical measurements, theoretical calculations, and other tests, they found that as-indacenoterrylene was intriguingly stable and also had a remarkably narrow gap between its highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and its lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO). This means that the molecule has two electronically different subunits, one that donates and another that withdraws electrons. The narrow HOMO-LUMO gap makes it easier for electrons to become excited within the molecule.

"The study offers an effective guideline for the design of hydrocarbons with a narrow HOMO-LUMO gap, which is to fabricate molecules with coexisting electron-donating and electron-withdrawing subunits," says Fukui. "These molecules will be useful for the development of next-generation solid-state materials, such as organic conductors and organic batteries."

The team next plans to synthesize other near infrared-absorbing aromatic hydrocarbons based on the design concepts garnered in this current study.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/10/201017194219.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily%2Fmatter_energy%2Fgraphene+%28Graphene+News+--+ScienceDaily%29

US Politics Betting Odds

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics

The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.

George Orwell.