Oct. 28, 2020 2:45 pm ET
Connecticut acted fast. Social distancing, lockdowns and
testing slashed Covid-19 cases in the spring.
But when Comptroller Kevin Lembo opened an email from his
budget director on April 15, it was clear the state’s quick action to contain
the pandemic hadn’t insulated its finances.
“We hit the brakes so quickly on the economy that we went
through the windshield,” his deputy wrote.
Connecticut is projecting a total revenue decline of $8.4
billion through the 2024 budget year—more than twice the rainy day fund built
up over the past three years.
“All you can do is grip the bar as tight as you can, make
the smartest decisions you can in real time, plan for the worst and be
surprised at something less than worst,” said Mr. Lembo.
U.S. states are facing their biggest cash crisis
Nationwide, the U.S. state budget shortfall from 2020
through 2022 could amount to about $434 billion, according to data from Moody’s
That’s greater than the 2019 K-12 education budget for
every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state
roads and other transportation infrastructure, according to the National
Association of State Budget Officers.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-states-face-biggest-cash-crisis-since-the-great-depression-11603910750?mod=mhp
San Francisco curbs virus but
once-vibrant downtown is empty By
JANIE HAR and JOCELYN GECKER October 29,
2020
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Before the pandemic, Señor Sisig food trucks were a
common sight in downtown San Francisco, dishing out Filipino fusion tacos and
burritos to long lines of workers who spilled out of office towers at lunch.
The trucks now are gone, forced into the suburbs because there’s
practically no one around to feed in the city’s center.
As the coronavirus pandemic transforms San Francisco’s workplace,
legions of tech workers have left, able to work remotely from anywhere.
Families have fled for roomy suburban homes with backyards. The exodus has
pushed rents in the prohibitively expensive city to their lowest in years.
Tourists are scarce, and the famed cable cars sit idle.
---- On Tuesday, more of San Francisco reopened
for business after Mayor London Breed proudly declared last week that the
city’s low virus case numbers allowed it to move into California’s most
permissive reopening tier. That means more people can go back to the office,
eat indoors at restaurants, visit museums and soon even enjoy a beer or
cocktail — outdoors — at a bona fide drinks-only bar.
It is the only urban county in the state to hit this tier, joining a
handful of sparsely populated rural ones.
In March, counties in the Bay Area jointly ordered their residents to
stay at home, becoming the first region in the country to do so. And San
Francisco itself was even slower than its neighbors to reopen restaurants, gyms
and salons.
The result: San Francisco, which pre-pandemic had nearly 900,000
residents, has recorded just over 12,200 virus cases and 145 deaths, among the
lowest death rates in the country. By contrast, the Southern California city of
Long Beach is about half the size but has had about 900 more cases and 100 more
deaths.
But the restrictions also played a role in shutting down critical
elements of San Francisco’s vibrant economy — tourism, tech and the city’s main
business and financial districts, packed with high-rise condos, office towers
and headquarters for the likes of Twitter, Pinterest and Slack.
There are no hard figures on how many residents have left. It remains to
be seen if the limited reopening will do much to repopulate the city.
---- The restaurant industry projects half the
eateries in a city consumed with innovative dining may not survive the
pandemic. Some already have closed. There will be no more eggs benedict, for
example, served with a view at Louis’ Restaurant, which has had a prime perch
on a cliff overlooking the Pacific Ocean since 1937.
Companies in the nation’s tech capital, where Google, Facebook and
Salesforce, the city’s largest employer, have extensive office space, were
quick to embrace remote working and when the lockdown came, an estimated
137,500 tech workers seemingly vanished overnight.
San Francisco’s office vacancy rate has since nearly tripled compared
with December to 14.1%, the highest since 2011, said Robert Sammons, a senior
researcher with commercial real estate group Cushman & Wakefield who is
eager to return to his own downtown office.
More
https://apnews.com/article/san-francisco-virus-empty-downtown-965a5a419ef7a1405a04bc4665dbb64c
Virus second wave douses hopes of
German economic recovery Issued
on: 30/10/2020 -
06:26 Modified: 30/10/2020 -
06:24
Germany is expected to unveil a strong rebound in GDP for the third quarter
on Friday, but relief could be short-lived as the country stands on the brink
of new shutdowns to contain a second coronavirus wave.
Analysts from financial information service Factset have predicted a
rebound of 7.4 percent in July to September after a plunge of almost 10 percent
during the second quarter.
Indicators for production, industrial orders and exports all saw an
uptick in Europe's biggest economy during the summer months, thanks to a
loosening of restrictions as the number of coronavirus cases dropped.
But Germany, like the rest of the continent, has in recent weeks been
engulfed by a second wave of the pandemic, with ECB chief Christine Lagarde
noting that recovery in the single currency zone was "losing momentum more
rapidly than expected".
Germany's cultural, leisure, as well as food and drink sectors have been
ordered to close from Monday to the end of November, in a new round of
shutdowns that industries have warned could lead to a raft of bankruptcies.
Confidence has already been in decline since early October among
entrepreneurs, investors and consumers.
And now "the recovery is on hold," Carsten Brzeski, an analyst
for ING bank, told AFP.
- New shutdowns -
Having been praised for its handling of the first wave of the pandemic
in the spring, Germany is now regularly reporting more than 10,000 new cases a
day and saw a peak of 16,774 on Thursday.
Tough restrictions to come in force Monday will keep restaurants and
bars closed. Hotel stays will be allowed only for "necessary and expressly
non-tourism purposes". Schools, daycare centres and shops will remain
open, however.
It is safe to assume this "will also have an influence on economic
developments", Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told parliament on
Wednesday.
According to the LBBW bank, the measures could eat into GDP by 0.5
percentage points in 2020 and 1 point in 2021.
Fears of a rise in unemployment are also growing, despite an encouraging
figure of 6.2 percent for October.
The KfW public investment bank has predicted that more than a million
jobs could be lost this year in small- and medium-sized enterprises.
Many blue-chip German businesses have also announced sweeping job cuts,
including 30,000 at flagship airline Lufthansa, 8,000 at tour operator TUI and
6,000 at carmaker BMW.
In the hospitality sector, professional associations are warning that up
to a third of hotels and restaurants could be forced to close their doors for
good by the end of the year.
---- "Over
the last eight months, our turnover has plunged between 90 and 100
percent," said Cordula Weidenbach, whose company rents out furniture for
trade fairs in Munich.
"If this continues, we will go bankrupt."
Berlin announced Wednesday that it will offer an extra 10 billion euros
($12 billion) in aid for businesses affected by the November shutdown.
Companies will be compensated for up to 75 percent of their turnover
during the weeks they are forced to close, whereas previous aid could only be
used to cover fixed costs such as rent and utility bills.
The government has also already extended its "Kurzarbeit"
short-time working scheme for a total of 24 months.
But the restrictions remain a bitter pill to swallow for some. "We
know that hotels are not places prone to infection," Sandra Warten of the
DEHOGA hotel and catering union told AFP.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201030-virus-second-wave-douses-hopes-of-german-economic-recovery
Pandemic prompts tumult in UK
commercial property - RICS October 29,
202012:07 AM By Reuters Staff
LONDON
(Reuters) - Demand for British retail and office space contracted sharply
during the third quarter and the outlook for the year ahead has worsened as
working and shopping patterns change during the COVID-19 pandemic, a survey
showed on Thursday.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said 78% of chartered
surveyors viewed the commercial property market as being in a downturn, up a
little from 76% in the second quarter.
While there were clear signs of a pick-up in the industrial sites such
as warehouses for online stores, there was little cheer from the office and
retail sectors which saw another sharp fall in demand - albeit less severe than
in the second quarter.
Separate figures from insolvency practitioners Begbies Traynor Group
showed more than half a million businesses were in ‘significant distress’, up
6% over the past three months - though only a small fraction faced legal
action, due partly to reduced court capacity.
“With so many businesses limping along there could be a flood of
insolvencies when the courts do get back to anywhere near normal capacity and
attempt to clear the backlog of pending cases,” said Julie Palmer, a partner at
the firm.
Firms in the real estate, hospitality, retail and construction sectors
were struggling, Begbies Traynor said.
RICS said expectations of a fall in rents for prime office and retail
space were the most widespread since records started in 2014, and demand for
hotels and student housing was also weak.
“The physical retail sector, which was already struggling prior to the
latest crisis, is being hit hard by the accelerated switch into online shopping
and a drop in footfall associated with social distancing,” RICS economist
Tarrant Parsons said.
“Likewise, occupier demand across the office sector remains in decline
and may continue to come under pressure going forward as businesses reassess
their office space requirements following the increased prevalence of remote
working.”
A quarter of people worked from home in the week to Oct. 18, according
to the latest official data.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-property/pandemic-prompts-tumult-in-uk-commercial-property-rics-idUKKBN27E00N?feedType=nl&feedName=ukmorningdigest&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2018%20Template:%20UK%20MORNING%20DIGEST%202020-10-29&utm_term=NEW:%20UK%20Morning%20Digest
France back in coronavirus
lockdown as US surges to daily record Issued
on: 30/10/2020 -
05:30
France headed into a second lockdown on Friday as the resurgent
coronavirus pandemic hit new heights in the United States with a daily record
of more than 90,000 cases, just five days before the presidential election.
From midnight, France's 65 million population were largely confined to
their homes, needing written statements to leave, in the latest drastic measure
to curb a disease that has infected more than 44.5 million worldwide and killed
nearly 1.2 million.
As lockdowns return, oil prices dropped on fears of a slowdown in demand
but tech giants Facebook, Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet reported strong
quarterly earnings, reflecting the economic shifts caused by the global
outbreak.
And in the latest bleak warning, the United Nations' biodiversity panel
said future pandemics will be more frequent, deadly and economically damaging,
without a fundamental change in the way humans treat nature.
The United States, where President Donald Trump will seek re-election on
November 3, announced 91,295 new cases in 24 hours, surging past the
90,000-mark for the first time.
Trump's handling of the pandemic in America, the world's worst-hit
county with 8.94 million cases, has been a key theme in the election campaign,
where he trails Democrat challenger Joe Biden in national polling.
Millions of people raced to buy supplies ahead of France's new lockdown,
with essentials like pasta and toilet paper in high demand, as well as printer
ink and yoga mats.
"I'm stocking up, since we don't know when this will end,"
said Catherine Debeaupuis, shopping at an electronics retailer in central
Paris.
The lockdown is scheduled to last a month, with bars and restaurants
also closed until at least December and travel between regions limited.
Factories and building sites will remain open, as will creches and
schools -- although children aged six and up must wear masks in class.
The lockdown in France, where 36,000 have died, is part of a series of
renewed anti-virus restrictions around Europe, which is back at the pandemic's
"epicentre" according to the World Health Organization.
In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has ordered a lighter round of
shutdowns from Monday, closing bars, cafes and restaurants, as well as theatres,
operas and cinemas.
Spain's parliament on Thursday approved a six-month extension of the
country's state of emergency, which was declared on Sunday for an initial two
weeks.
Sweden, known for its light-touch approach, recorded its highest number of
infections for the second day in a row, prompting a warning for people in the
capital and the country's more densely populated south to avoid social
interaction.
More
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201030-france-back-in-coronavirus-lockdown-as-us-surges-to-daily-record
Tens of thousands flee Paris
before lockdown: Gridlock for miles, stations are packed and shelves are
stripped as month-long coronavirus restrictions that BAN travel begin ·
Thousands of Parisians caused massive
traffic jams as they tried to flee the French capital for the country
·
Huge numbers of locals attempted a mass
exodus in a bid to avoid the start of the second national lockdown
·
Many were enjoying their final night of
freedom in France ahead of new lockdown restrictions from Friday
·
Draconian measures will see people
needing documents to show their reasonable excuse for leaving home
·
Europe has seen rising infections, with
France recording 47,637 new infections in 24 hours and 235 deaths
By Jack
Wright For Mailonline
Published: 00:03,
30 October 2020 | Updated: 03:51,
30 October 2020
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8895437/Coronavirus-France-Gridlock-thousands-try-flee-Paris-ahead-new-month-long-lockdown.html
Singapore’s local jobless rate
rises to 4.7 per cent as pandemic worsens lay-offs in tourism and transport ·
Advance estimates show Singaporeans bore the
brunt of the job losses in the third quarter after foreigners felt the effects
earlier this year
·
Analysts said unemployment was likely to peak
either in the third or fourth quarter but slow job growth will continue into
2021
Dewey Sim in Singapore Published: 2:00pm, 30 Oct, 2020 Updated: 2:13pm, 30 Oct, 2020
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3107749/singapores-local-jobless-rate-rises-47-cent-pandemic-worsens
Winter
Watch.
The Arctic winter sea-ice expansion and
northern hemisphere snow cover. From around mid-October, the northern
hemisphere snow cover usually rapidly expands, while the Arctic ice gradually
expands back towards its winter maximum.
Over simplified, a rapid expansion of
both, especially if early, can be a sign of a harsher than normal arriving norther
hemisphere winter. Perhaps more so in 2020-2021 as we’re in the low of the
ending sunspot cycle, which possibly also influenced this year’s record
Atlantic hurricane season.
Adding to this year’s winter concerns,
a developing La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific. While the La Nina effect
on the winter weather of western Europe is weaker than that of an El Nino
pattern, which tends to make for a milder winter, a La Nina pattern tends to
make for a colder winter.
The early take, Eur-Asia turned snowy
fast in mid-October. North America is now playing catchup. The Arctic sea ice
expansion is slow, and from a very low level at the end of September, but with
the vastly expanded snow cover, sea ice formation will probably now speed up.
US National Ice
Center.
https://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/
“Grumpy: "Would you like some wine?"
With apologies to Snow White, Lewis
Carroll, and Alice.
Covid-19 Corner This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
U.S. Hits Record as Global Cases
Top 45 Million: Virus Update Bloomberg News October
29, 2020, 10:02 PM GMT Updated on October 30, 2020, 6:14 AM GMT
U.S. new cases topped 89,000, setting a daily record, as
the outbreak intensifies ahead of next week’s presidential election. Global
infections surpassed 45 million, with Europe also grappling to control a
renewed surge in the disease across the continent.
Infections are again on the rise in New York and New
Jersey, while the Midwest states are suffering a record outbreak. Anthony
Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease doctor, predicted it could
take until the end of 2021 at least for social life in the U.S. to return to
normal even with an effective vaccine.
German cases exceeded 500,000 after a gain of
more than 19,000 through early Friday, confirming a trend that Chancellor
Angela Merkel has characterized as a “dramatic situation.” In Japan, the government
in Tokyo made plans to boost its testing capacity sixfold as the flu season
begins and the city found 204 new cases, while infections hit a daily record on
the northern island of Hokkaido.
MUMBAI (Reuters) - India saw a daily spurt
of 48,648 coronavirus infections, taking its tally to 8.09 million, health
ministry data showed on Friday.
India is the world’s second worst affected
country, after the United States, which has nearly 9 million infections and hit
a daily record of more than 91,000 cases on Thursday.
Cases in India have been dipping since a
peak hit in September, but experts have warned of a possible spike during the
festival season, which runs until mid-November.
The death toll rose 563 to stand at 121,090,
the ministry added.
(Interactive graphic tracking global spread
of coronavirus: here
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-india-cases/india-records-48648-new-coronavirus-cases-idUKKBN27F0G6?il=0
Covid breath? Singapore firm
invents coronavirus breathalyser test that gives results in 60 seconds ·
Breathonix said its test achieved more than
90 per cent accuracy in a pilot clinical trial of 180 people and generates
results in under a minute
·
Countries worldwide are looking to develop
alternative tests to the polymerase chain reaction nasal swab, which is
invasive and in short supply
Published: 6:41pm, 29 Oct, 2020
A company in Singapore has
developed a breathalyser test for the new coronavirus which it claims will
enable people to know whether they are infected in under a minute.
Breathonix, a start-up from the National
University of Singapore, said its test achieved more than 90 per cent accuracy
in a pilot clinical trial of 180 people in the city state and hopes to get
regulatory approval early next year.
Countries worldwide are looking to develop
alternative tests to the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) nasal swab, which is
invasive and in short supply in some places where demand has outstripped
manufacturers’ production capacity.
Breathonix is currently expanding its trial in
Singapore and hopes to improve accuracy and get the green light to go
commercial in the first quarter of next year.
At US$20, Breathonix says its test would be 70 per cent cheaper than PCR
tests, although infected patients would likely still need the more sensitive
PCR tests to confirm the diagnosis.
“The breath test is more like a first level screen device,” said Jia
Zhunan, co-founder and CEO of Breathonix, adding it could be deployed at
conferences, sports events and concerts.
The device uses disposable mouthpieces and is designed to ensure there
is no cross-contamination.
After blowing into the device, it assesses the chemical compounds of the
breath to determine whether a person is infected. Results are generated by a
computer within 60 seconds.
A similar breathalyser is being tested by a hospital in France , although
experts have warned the system may be too costly for widespread distribution.
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3107663/covid-breath-singapore-firm-invents-coronavirus
Tokyo reports 221 new coronavirus
cases; nationwide tally 803 29 October, 2020 04:03 pm JST
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government on Thursday reported 221
new cases of the coronavirus, up 50 from Wednesday. The number is the
result of 6,187 tests
conducted on Oct 26.
By age group, the most cases were people in their 20s (58),
followed by 48 in their 30s.
The tally brought Tokyo's cumulative total to 30,677.
The number of infected people in Tokyo with severe symptoms
is 29, down one from Wednesday, health officials said.
Nationwide, the number of reported cases was 803. After
Tokyo, the prefectures with the most cases were Osaka (125), Aichi (87),
Kanagawa (71), Hokkaido (53), Chiba (43), Saitama (39), Okinawa (32) and
Okayama (31).
Seven coronavirus-related deaths were reported.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/tokyo-reports-221-new-coronavirus-cases
Spain's Catalonia region closes
its borders to contain pandemic October 29,
20201:41 PM
BARCELONA (Reuters) - Catalonia announced on Thursday a 15-day ban on
entering and exiting its territory, the latest in a series of restrictions
taken by Spanish regions to try and contain rampant COVID-19 contagion.
Catalonia, home to the city of Barcelona, is one of the virus’ hotspots
and has already some of the toughest measures in place in the country,
including a 15-day shutdown of bars and restaurants, which will also be
extended.
It announced the new measures as the parliament in Madrid debated a
nationwide state of emergency, which the central government wants to last until
May to give regions legal backing for taking such restrictive measures.
“The government is aware that citizens are tired after months of effort
and sacrifices, of not being able to do what they used to do before, to hug
people, our family and friends,” Health Minister Salvador Illa told parliament.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-spain/spains-catalonia-region-closes-its-borders-to-contain-pandemic-idUKKBN27E2BO?il=0
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada. The links come from a most
informative update from Stanford Hospital in California.
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines . https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker . https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Stanford
Website . https://racetoacure.stanford.edu/clinical-trials/132
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker . https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Rt Covid-19
https://rt.live/
Covid19info.live
https://wuflu.live/
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Solar power lights the way
towards the SDGs with broad benefits for green recovery plans Global Solar Council Virtual Forum highlights solar power’s
benefits for the Planet, People and Prosperity
October 28, 2020 Global
Solar Council
Solar power is set to play a key role in unleashing an array of
environmental, social and economic benefits and can accelerate our trajectory
towards the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), thanks to
PV’s ability to deliver not only our climate objectives but also bring
advantages in terms of employment, health, education, gender equality and
poverty alleviation.
As this year’s global health crisis has highlighted the need to speed
the transition towards a decarbonized economy and secure a better future for
all, solar photovoltaics (PV) has emerged not only as a cost-competitive source
of clean energy but an attractive investment opportunity for green recovery
plans. The Global Solar Council’s first Virtual Forum showcased the
potential of solar power to bring sustainable development benefits in the short
and long term.
“We are all familiar with the enormous importance of solar power in
combatting climate change and transitioning to a decarbonized economy in coming
decades,” said Gianni Chianetta, Global Solar Council Chairman . “But on
top of the critical goal of protecting the climate and safeguarding the
environment, investing in solar offers a host of other benefits: solar energy
is vital not only for the Planet, but also for People and Prosperity.”
The relevance of solar for the SDGs is highlighted by a few key facts:
789 million people today remain without access to electricity (SDG 7) and 300
million children are without power at primary school (SDG 4) and a staggering
90% of the global population is at risk due to air pollution (SDG 3). That
said, 11.5 million people are already employed in renewable energy (SDG 8) and
32% of them are women (SDG 5) while 17.1% of final energy consumption comes
from renewables (SDG 13).
Solar PV offers immense opportunity to accelerate the SDGs,” said Bahareh
Seyedi, Senior Sustainable Development Officer, UN Secretariat, Department of
Social and Economic Affairs. “Solar PV is already driving the
transformation of energy systems and that will have a ripple effect through
integrated action that will touch on a number of SDGs.” She noted in particular
that this shift to clean energy – both on-grid and off-grid – will help deliver
better health and services, create green jobs and growth, empower women,
provide clean air and reduced pollution, open up pathways to net-zero emissions
and enable resilient communities.
With the prospect of renewable energy’s share of global electricity
generation more than doubling between 2017 and 2030, the “Transforming Energy
Scenario” of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) forecasts solar
PV will account for 13% of power production by 2030 compared with 1.7%. That
surge means solar will attract more investment than any other renewable energy
technology and create the highest number of jobs – 11.7 million by 2030 –
further contributing to GDP and welfare gains, for example from reduced air pollution.
More
https://www.pv-magazine.com/press-releases/solar-power-lights-the-way-towards-the-sdgs-with-broad-benefits-for-green-recovery-plans/
US Politics Betting Odds https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics
Another weekend, and the end of stock’s crash month too. The
final weekend of the dreadful US election campaign too. A merciful release for
most.
One of the contenders has to lose big time next week, Sleepy
gaining, or Grumpy retaining the presidency.One gets to luck out.
America also puts back its clocks on Sunday, giving the contenders
an extra hour to hurl mud (or worse,) at each other. It will also give
America’s looters and rioters an extra hour to recover. Have a great weekend everyone.
“But I don’t want to go among mad people," Sleepy remarked.
With
apologies to Snow White, and Lewis Carroll, and Alice.
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