Baltic Dry Index. 2686 +16 Brent Crude 111.26
Spot Gold 4613 Spot Silver 74.51
US 2 Year Yield 3.88 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 39.185 trillion
US GDP 32.077 trillion.
“The world is a dangerous place,” Berenberg economists warned in emailed analysis last week, noting that in addition to the Trump tariffs and China’s subsidized export drive, the fallout from the Iran war is now “battering European economies.”
May day, May day, May day!
To no ones great surprise, professional money managers, goosed by the central bank’s easy money, dressed up yet another stock casino month-end.
But the commodity and bond casinos are telling a very different story.
Plus, Trump’s free ride in his disastrous Gulf war is supposed to end today, though no one expects Trump to follow US law.
An interesting May and summer lie ahead. Sell in May, go away?
Australia and Japan markets climb, looking past
Iran war escalation fears
Published Thu, Apr 30 2026 7:53 PM EDT
Markets in Australia and Japan mostly rose
Friday, mirroring gains on Wall Street that saw both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach new
highs.
This comes as investors took in strong earnings from Apple and Caterpillar, looking past
weaker-than-expected economic data and threats of escalation in Iran by U.S.
President Donald Trump.
Brent crude prices briefly
surged to $126 a barrel after Axios reported that the U.S. military would brief
Trump on potential action against Iran.
However, Brent’s June contract, which
expired on Thursday, later settled at $114.01 a barrel, while U.S West Texas Intermediate was
0.61% up at $105.71, as of 7:46 p.m. ET. Brent futures for July delivery closed
at $110.4.
On Thursday, the U.S. Commerce Department
reported that gross domestic product rose at a 2%
annualized pace in the first quarter. While that was an increase from
0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, it was below the 2.2% consensus estimate by
Wall Street economists.
Most major Asian markets are closed due to
the May Day holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.66%,
but the Topix was marginally down, paring earlier losses.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up
0.91%, on pace to snap an eight-session losing streak.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500
rose 1.02% to close at a record of 7,209.01, its first close above the 7,200
threshold. The tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped
0.89%, hitting new intraday and closing records as well.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average added
1.62%.
U.S. futures for all three major indexes
were marginally up after the session, with S&P 500 futures advancing
0.16%, while Nasdaq 100
futures were little changed. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 79 points, or about 0.2%.
Australia and Japan markets climb, looking past Iran war escalation fears
Oil rises as White House says Iran ceasefire halts
60-day war deadline
Published Thu, Apr 30 2026 10:35 PM EDT
Oil prices climbed Friday, a day after a
volatile session that saw the Brent
crude contract for June hit a four-year high before retreating.
The June contract, which expired on
Thursday, climbed to $126.41 a barrel before settling at $114.01.
On Friday, the July Brent futures contract
rose 1.11% to $111.63 as of 10:15 p.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
for June gained 0.45% to $105.54.
The moves come as U.S. President Donald
Trump faces a 60-day deadline under the War
Powers Resolution related to military action in the Iran war.
Under the 1973
law, a president must
withdraw troops within 60 days of notifying Congress of their
deployment, unless lawmakers authorize the military action. Congress has not
done so.
The Trump administration argued on Friday
that a ceasefire reached three weeks ago had “terminated” hostilities between
the two sides, according to MSNow. This would allow the White House to avoid
seeking Congressional approval for the war.
An administration official said that the
absence of direct fire between U.S. forces and Iran since a ceasefire was first
agreed to on April 7 means the 60-day clock no longer applies.
“For War Powers Resolution purposes, the
hostilities that began on Saturday, February 28, have terminated,” an
administration official told MSNow.
The argument was first raised by Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth during his
hearing before the House Armed Services Committee earlier Thursday,
where he said the ceasefire effectively paused the war.
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on
Iran on Feb. 28, and Trump formally notified Congress on March 2, starting the
60-day clock and setting up a May 1 deadline.
Trump could seek a 30-day extension under
the law but has not done so, according to lawmakers.
Tensions remain elevated despite a
ceasefire. Trump on Wednesday escalated threats against Tehran, vowing to
maintain the U.S. blockade on Iran until Tehran agrees to a nuclear
deal.
Tehran has refused to reopen the Strait of
Hormuz unless the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iranian ports.
Axios also reported that the U.S. Central Command had
prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of
breaking stalled talks between Washington and Tehran.
While the two sides are currently in a
ceasefire, a senior official from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had reportedly
threatened “long and painful strikes” on U.S. positions if Washington renewed
attacks on Iran, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
Oil
rises as White House says Iran ceasefire halts 60-day war deadline
In commodities news.
UK refineries asked to maximise jet fuel
production amid supply fears
Government request follows contingency
planning to stop planes being grounded if Iran war supply shocks continue
Wed 29 Apr 2026 14.05 BST
British refineries have been asked to
maximise jet fuel supply as part of government contingency planning, amid
growing fears the Iran war will force planes to be grounded.
The energy minister Michael Shanks said
the government is closely monitoring UK jet fuel stocks and working with
airlines, airports, fuel suppliers and other governments, as carriers face
rocketing fuel costs as a result of the conflict.
Normal flows of fossil fuels from the Gulf
have effectively been at a standstill since the war broke out, after the de
facto closure of the important shipping channel, the strait of Hormuz, through which a
fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows.
“UK airlines typically buy fuel months in
advance, and aviation fuel suppliers hold bunkered stocks. The UK imports jet
fuel supplies from a range of countries not reliant on the strait, including
the United States,” wrote Shanks in a ministerial statement.
“Airlines UK have stated that ‘UK airlines
continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel
supply.’ The government continues to work with partners to monitor and mitigate
potential disruptions,” Shanks added.
There are now only four remaining
refineries in the UK, after closures at the Grangemouth and Lindsey refineries
in 2025.
The remaining UK refineries are: Fawley in
Hampshire owned by ExxonMobil; Humber in Lincolnshire owned by Phillips 66;
Valero’s Pembroke refinery in Wales; and Essar’s Stanlow site in Cheshire.
These sites produce a range of refined
products including petrol, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil to meet domestic
demand and for export. The number of UK refineries has fallen from a peak of 18
in the 1970s, as has the UK’s output of petrol and diesel.
It came as global jet fuel shipments fell
to the lowest recorded level last week. Just under 2.3m tonnes of jet fuel and
kerosene were transported on ships in the seven days to 26 April, according to
initial analysis by the data company Kpler, which first began tracking
shipments in 2017. The figure represents less than half the average weekly
volume shipped before the war.
More
European aluminum billet premium doubles after
Iran war disrupts supply, squeezes consumers
April 28, 2026 | 7:49 am
The premium in Europe for aluminum billet,
a semi-finished product, has doubled since the Iran war started due to
shortages stemming from two months of disrupted Middle East supply, squeezing
consumers in construction and transport.
Exports from the Gulf region, a key
supplier of primary aluminum, billet and other alloys to Europe, have been
curbed after the conflict largely suspended the bulk of shipping through the
Strait of Hormuz.
Production of the metal has also been hit
in the Middle East, which accounts for 9% of global supply with its 7 million
metric tons of annual capacity.
“For now, the most acute situation is with
the aluminum billet,” a source in metals logistics told Reuters,
referring to the situation in Europe. Aluminum billet is a solid block of
high-purity aluminum often used for high-performance parts.
Supply conditions are set to tighten
further in the coming weeks as stocks held by Gulf producers in Europe are
gradually depleted, the source added.
In Rotterdam, the premium for aluminum
extrusion billet over the benchmark price, according to Fastmarkets, has more
than doubled to $1,100 a metric ton by Friday from the pre-war level of $530.
Having hit four-year
highs at
$3,672 a metric ton on April 16, benchmark aluminum prices on the London Metal
Exchange are up 12% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on
February 28.
The physical premium European buyers pay
above the LME price for primary aluminum, to cover freight, taxes and handling
costs, is up 63% since the war started – at $585 a ton. For May and June, the
premium is $625 as of Monday.
Adding to the strain, Emirates Global
Aluminium (EGA) has declared force
majeure on
some aluminum billet contracts with European customers, according to two
sources, after one of its smelters in the UAE was hit by an Iranian attack in
late March.
More
BHP adopts yuan pricing as China lifts ore ban
29 April 2026
Ban finally lifted: China’s state iron
ore buyer ended its ban on certain BHP cargoes, clearing 8.69M tons of
stockpiled ore for sale.
Yuan pricing debut: BHP will use
China’s COREX index in contracts, replacing the Platts benchmark for some
shipments and linking over half the formula to yuan trades.
Global trade impact: The deal boosts
China’s market leverage and adds momentum to de-dollarization trends in
commodity pricing.
BHP adopts yuan-based pricing in landmark
China deal
BHP has agreed to integrate China’s COREX
portside iron ore index into long-term contracts with China Mineral Resources
Group, marking the first time Chinese market trading data will be part of the
iron ore pricing formula. More than half of the pricing for some cargoes will
be yuan-denominated before conversion to dollars, with the long-used Platts
benchmark excluded. The agreement concluded a months-long standoff during which
Chinese buyers were blocked from certain BHP products.
Why the yuan pricing shift matters for
global commodities
Global commodities are predominantly
priced in U.S. dollars, reinforcing the currency’s reserve status. By accepting
a yuan-linked benchmark, BHP has strengthened Beijing’s hand in challenging
Western-controlled pricing systems. The shift comes amid geopolitical tensions
and could influence other resource sectors, with some analysts noting it may
spur central banks to diversify reserves into assets like gold.
More
BHP adopts yuan
pricing as China lifts ore ban
In other news.
Markets are still underpricing Iran war risks,
investors warn as oil fluctuates around four-year high
Published Thu, Apr 30 2026 6:18 AM EDT Updated Thu, Apr 30 2026 7:00 AM EDT
Renewed fears about the trajectory of the
U.S.-Iran war sent global benchmark Brent crude futures to a four-year high and
rattled equity markets on Thursday — but analysts say investors are still
pricing for peace and underestimating potential future risk.
The latest step
higher in oil prices came after Axios reported that U.S. Central Command is preparing
to present U.S. President Donald Trump with plans for further possible military
action against Iran, citing anonymous sources.
The president was also reported to have
rejected a peace proposal from Tehran, which would mean an American blockade of
the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route — will remain in place.
By 6:06 a.m. ET, Brent futures for June
delivery fell 1.7% at $116.05 a barrel, climbing down from an earlier surge
that put the contracts on track for their highest close since March 2022. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for
June delivery were down about 0.2% to trade at $106.59, also paring earlier
gains.
The fresh volatility on Thursday raised
questions about what comes next for the oil market and the global economy.
“This move in the oil price might be the
catalyst to see sentiment and longer-term positioning changing,” Neil Birrell,
chief investment officer at London-based Premier Miton Investors, told CNBC in
an email on Thursday.
He noted that while asset prices and
sentiment have fluctuated alongside oil prices throughout the two-month Iran
war, “it does feel like they have reflected more the likelihood of a resolution
to the conflict.”
Backwardation to bite
Since the start of the Iran war in late
February, the oil market has been in a
state of backwardation: a phenomenon where futures with near-term
deliveries are marketed at a premium over longer-dated contracts. Even as
near-term futures contracts continue to surge, backwardation remains the status
quo — signaling that money markets are pricing in a looming resolution to the
war and a stabilization of energy prices.
Optimistic sentiment has also been
pervasive across other asset classes, with traders largely shrugging
off the sell-off and volatility seen in the immediate aftermath of the
war breaking out. However, the four-year high in oil markets, and fresh
concerns about Trump’s next move, bled into equity and bond markets once again
on Thursday.
“The macro impact and the potential damage
to corporate profits will come back into stark focus,” Birrell said of
Thursday’s oil price spike. “However, economies and equities, in particular,
have proven to be remarkably resilient — the question is, can that continue if
the oil price stays at this level or higher?”
In the near term, front-month futures
could go a lot higher, warned Patrick Armstrong chief investment officer
at Plurimi Group — who also cautioned that investors may not be fully pricing
the longer-term impact of the war.
“Where the curve is just crazy to me is
the sharp backwardation,” he said. “It’s being priced as if the Strait is going
to open imminently, and then everything is going to be okay. There’s been
millions of barrels every day that haven’t gotten through, and that’s led to
massive inventory drawdowns on oil — but on refined product, particularly jet
fuel, diesel, even petroleum, all of these things are getting close to what
you’re going to call crisis levels, where you’re going to have to really pay up
to get them, and refineries are going to have incredible profit margins.”
Armstrong told CNBC sellers are “going to
be able to charge whatever [they] want for refined goods, because oil prices
[will] stay higher for longer.”
“Trump jawboned the oil price down by
saying we’ve got a peace deal, and we don’t,” he said. “The Strait is going to
be disrupted, we think, for all of May, and there’s very little inventory, so
it’s hard to be diversified in equities — energy stocks are diversification,
that’s what goes up when everything else goes down, because that gives you this
stagflationary hedge, [and] that’s the biggest risk in the world right now.”
Bill Perkins, the founder and managing
partner of Skylar Capital — a hedge fund focused on the energy market — told
CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday that the economy is yet to see the true
effects of the oil crisis arising from the effective closure of the Strait of
Hormuz.
“It takes about 40 days for that crew to
get to its final destinations, to the big users. If the well runs dry, it takes
a little bit [of time] for you to feel the effects, because there’s still … oil
on the water that was able to reach its destination,” he said.
Perkins said the bigger story is what’s
happening in diesel and jet fuel supply chains, noting that while strategic
petroleum reserves had dampened the crude oil market somewhat, diesel had
almost doubled in price.
“In the product markets, it’s a Wild West
Show,” he said. “Even if we had peace today, you also have to consider the
logistics of getting those ships out.”
More
Oil briefly hits $125, prompts warnings Iran risks underpriced
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Bank
of England keeps rates on hold at 3.75% as Iran war shakes outlook
Published
Thu, Apr 30 2026 7:01 AM EDT
The
Bank of England voted to keep its key interest rate on hold at 3.75% on
Thursday, as widely expected by economists, as the Iran war continues to pose a
dilemma for policymakers.
The
central bank was widely expected to stand pat on rates as it waits to see how
the energy price crunch caused by the Iran war, and a concurrent reignition of
inflationary pressures in the U.K., manifest themselves in the economy.
The
bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted in an 8-1 split to maintain the
benchmark rate, known as “Bank Rate”, at 3.75%, with known hawk BOE Chief
Economist Huw Pill the only dissenter voting for a 25 basis-point
increase.
----The
BOE said Thursday that inflation is “likely to be higher later this year as the
effects of higher energy prices pass through” and that it was wary of
second-round effects — such as workers demanding higher wages in the face of
higher living costs, potentially fueling more inflation — in the economy.
“There
is a risk of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, which
policy would need to lean against. But the labour market continues to loosen,
and a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressures. Financial
conditions have tightened since the conflict began, which will help to reduce
inflation over time,” the BOE said.
“Taking
all the risks to the economic outlook into account, the Committee judges that
it is appropriate to maintain Bank Rate at this meeting.”
The
BOE nonetheless included three scenarios reflecting the possible outlook for
the U.K. economy depending on the scale and duration of the energy price rises,
and the severity of any second-round effects that might materialize.
In
the most benign scenario, inflation would rise to 3.5% at the end of this year
before falling back. In the most severe, inflation could rise “much more
sharply” and peak at 6.2% at the start of 2027 and remain elevated above the
bank’s 2% inflation target until 2029.
In
that most adverse scenario, the BOE said Bank Rate would rise to around 5.25%
in 2027. While this would reduce the expected inflation peak in this scenario,
it would “come at the cost of a larger output gap and would raise the risk of a
recession.”
More
Bank of England
hold interest rate at 3.75% as Iran war shakes outlook
RBC
BlueBay's Dowding sees recession risk for Europe on Iran war
Europe
faces recession if the Strait of Hormuz crisis isn’t resolved within a month,
according to Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income of RBC
Bluebay Asset Management.
Published
Apr 27, 2026
Stagflation
risks stacking up as Iran war enters third month
LONDON,
April 30 (Reuters) - Financial markets are finding it harder to look past the
rising economic costs of the Iran war as the continued closure of the Strait of
Hormuz prolongs the world's biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies.
Two
months into the conflict, the global economy faces a toxic mix of slowing
growth and high inflation - stagflation.
Even
as tech stocks lift world shares, analysts warn that the longer Hormuz remains
shut, the greater the recession risk for energy-importing regions.
"The
probability of a recession in Europe, the UK, and parts of Asia, is higher than
is priced into equity markets," said RBC BlueBay's head of market strategy
Mike Bell.
Here
is how the risks are shaping up across markets:
OIL
WATCH
Oil
remains the key barometer.
Brent
crude is trading at around $112 a barrel, more than 50% above pre-war levels,
and continues to rise as the war drags on. High energy prices threaten growth
by squeezing consumers and companies while fuelling inflation.
Citi
says it's considering an adverse scenario in which Brent climbs to $120 through
year-end, cutting global growth to between 1.5% and 2% and lifting headline
inflation to nearly 5%.
Gas
prices in Europe and Asia have also risen. Farmers face a second surge in
fertiliser prices in four years, while countries including Sweden have warned
of potential jet fuel shortages.
FINANCIAL
CONDITIONS
Despite
sharply higher borrowing costs, the shock has yet to show up clearly in overall
financial conditions.
Market-based
measures - which track how asset prices affect funding availability and future
growth - tightened to their most restrictive since last spring in the U.S. in
March, but have since stabilised, helped by April's equity rally, according to
a closely watched Goldman Sachs index.
Conditions
have tightened modestly in the euro zone and Japan, driven by rising borrowing
costs. Britain stands out, with a much sharper tightening that points to a
heavier growth hit.
U.S.
FACES MORE OF AN INFLATION PROBLEM
The
impact varies by exposure to energy flows through Hormuz. In the U.S., gas
prices are now below pre-war levels.
Jefferies
chief European economist Mohit Kumar said both the scale and nature of the
stagflation shock differ across regions.
"Inflation
will still be higher in the U.S. but that's an oil price impact, the impact on
growth is much less in the U.S. than Europe."
U.S.
business activity picked up in April, though output prices jumped. Consumer
inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 4.7% this month from 3.8%
in March, while market-based gauges have also moved higher.
JPMorgan
CEO Jamie Dimon said this week the worst-case scenario of stagflation remained.
EUROPE
IN A TIGHT SPOT
Europe's
reliance on energy imports leaves it especially vulnerable, with data already
pointing to a stagflationary hit.
Data
on Thursday is expected to show euro zone inflation nearing 3%. Contracting
business activity, tighter bank lending criteria and surging inflation
expectations signal mounting pressure.
Germany's
IMK institute sees a 34% chance the bloc's largest economy slips into recession
in the second quarter, up from 12% in March.
ING's
head of global macro Carsten Brzeski said another month of Hormuz disruption
would likely trigger at least a technical euro zone recession.
UK
business activity has held up better so far, but risks are rising. The IMF hit
Britain with the biggest growth downgrade among rich economies.
Reflecting
inflation worries, borrowing costs in Europe have risen faster than elsewhere
as traders bet on higher UK and euro zone rates. Britain's two-year yields are
up 90 basis points since the war began.
Equity
markets, perhaps more focused on growth, are down 4% in the euro zone and 5% in
Britain, while U.S. shares have risen.
More
Stagflation risks
stacking up as Iran war enters third month
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Approval clears next step for tidal energy at Morlais
Wednesday, 29 April 2026 14:00
A regulatory decision has been granted,
marking another important milestone for (Ynys Môn) Anglesey tidal energy
scheme, Morlais.
Natural Resources Wales has approved an
application by Menter Môn Morlais Ltd to vary its existing marine licence,
allowing different types of tidal technology to be deployed within the Morlais
zone.
The variation relates specifically to
Tidal Technologies Ltd devices and supports the continued development of
Morlais as a shared site for multiple tidal energy technologies, operating
within a single licensed area.
Andy Billcliff, CEO of Menter Môn
Morlais Ltd, said: “This is a positive decision for us and allows the Morlais
scheme to continue moving forward, and to get tidal energy devices in the sea.
It reflects the steady progress we are making at the site and supports the
wider development of the tidal stream energy sector here in Wales.”
Tidal Technologies is one of five
developers to have already secured capacity to deploy at Morlais through
Allocation Rounds of the UK Government’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme.
Earlier this year, Tidal Technologies secured 3 MW in Allocation Round 7. The
CfDs provide long term revenue support for low carbon electricity generation.
Jim Conybeare-Cross, one of the Founder
Directors of Tidal Technologies, added: “The marine licence variation is an
exciting and significant step forward for our plans at Morlais. It enables the
next phase of work to move ahead, opening the door to further innovation and
bringing us closer to generating clean electricity off the coast of Ynys?Môn.”
As one of the world’s largest consented
tidal stream energy projects, Morlais will use the power of the tides off the
coast of Ynys Môn to generate clean electricity. With a potential generating
capacity of 240 MW, the first turbines are scheduled to be deployed in 2027.
Approval clears next step for tidal energy at Morlais | Energy Global
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Economists fear Europe could be facing a period of “stagflation”
— low growth, rising inflation and unemployment — as the war prompts a global
energy crunch, price rises and dents business and consumer confidence.
