Baltic
Dry Index. 3151 -44 Brent Crude 111.36
Spot Gold 4544 Spot Silver 75.78
US 2 Year Yield 4.09 +09
US Federal Debt. 39.256 trillion
US GDP 32.129 trillion.
Gold is money. Everything else is credit.
J. P. Morgan
An ever more desperate President Trump, trapped in a Persian Gulf war he can’t seem to end, made matters worse on Sunday threatening to restart his bombing hot war on Iran.
Crude oil prices moved higher in response.
Meanwhile the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most shipping causing massive, increasing supply chain disruptions in a global economy heading rapidly towards recession, if not worse. How long before America and Europe run into a diesel crisis?
My guess is we will be in global recession around July 4th, when the USA celebrates its 250th founding anniversary. But if Trump restarts his hot war and Iran retaliates, as seems likely, the global economy could slip into recession in early June.
Perhaps the G-7 finance ministers meeting in Paris today and tomorrow, could phone Trump in D.C. or Palm Beach and inform him of the consequences of more insanity, restarting a hot war in the Persian Gulf.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fall as Trump’s Iran
warning stokes fresh oil supply fears
Published Sun, May 17 2026 7:45 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as
investors weighed renewed geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald
Trump warned Iran to "get moving, FAST," raising fears of further
escalation in the Middle East and potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump on Sunday
said "the Clock is Ticking" for Iran and warned there "won't be
anything left" if action was not taken soon, adding that "TIME IS OF
THE ESSENCE!" He did not elaborate on the steps he wanted Iran to take or
the consequences that could follow.
Oil prices advanced more than 1%.
International benchmark Brent crude futures
for July gained 1.90% to trade at $111.34 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for
June advanced 2.17% to $107.71 per barrel.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.32%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.92%, while
the Topix was 0.77% lower. South Korea's Kospi reversed losses at the start of
the session, rising 1.15%, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.65%.
Yields on the Japanese 10-year government bond jumped
over 9 basis points to 2.793%, extending the selloff on the back of a rise
in global bond yields as inflation fears mounted.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.49%,
while the mainland CSI 300 was down flat. Taiwan's Taiex declined 1.02%.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran
have remained elevated despite a fragile ceasefire reached in early April. The
U.S. has continued its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has kept the
Strait of Hormuz shut since the conflict began.
U.S. stock futures were little changed
following a record-setting week, with traders awaiting quarterly results
from Nvidia and major
U.S. retailers.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped
100 points, or 0.2%. S&P
500 and Nasdaq-100
futures hovered around the flatline.
Last week on Wall Street, the major
indices closed lower on Friday, weighed down by losses in technology stocks and
a rise in U.S. Treasury yields after a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping ended without major
policy breakthroughs, leaving traders worried.
The S&P 500 shed 1.24% to end
at 7,408.50, while the Nasdaq
Composite slipped 1.54% to 26,225.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was
down 537.29 points, or 1.07%, and closed at 49,526.17.
Investors took profits in tech after the
group saw sharp gains recently. Notably, Intel retreated more than 6%,
while Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology lost 5.7% and
6.6%, respectively. Nvidia dropped
4.4%, while Cerebras Systems —
which surged
68% Thursday after it began trading on the Nasdaq — shed 10%.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi, Nifty 50
Wall Street Week Ahead
May 17, 2026, 7:26 AM ET
Wall Street heads into a pivotal week led
by Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, fresh
economic data, and continued enthusiasm around AI and gaming themes.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) results on
Wednesday are expected to be the week’s marquee event, with investors focused
on hyperscaler spending, sovereign AI demand, and commentary around data center
growth. Options markets imply a roughly 6% move in the stock following the
report, with semiconductor and AI-linked names likely to react in sympathy.
Tech will remain in focus throughout the
week. Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) hosts its Google
I/O developer conference, while Dell Technologies World (DELL) will feature
appearances from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Investors will also monitor whether a
SpaceX (SPACE) IPO prospectus
emerges during the week.
On the macro side, flash PMI data on
Thursday will provide insight into the economic impact of ongoing Middle East
tensions, while the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its last meeting
on Wednesday.
Retail earnings from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), and TJX (TJX) will offer
another read on consumer spending trends.
Elsewhere, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) could see
heightened volatility amid speculation around a new Grand Theft Auto 6 trailer
and potential preorder announcements.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
Kevin Warsh comes into the Fed facing a big
‘family fight’ over cutting interest rates
Published Sat, May 16 2026 9:41 AM EDT
If new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is still
itching for a “good family fight” over monetary policy, he is likely to get one
if he sticks to his guns on interest rate cuts.
With inflation spiking and Treasury yields
surging, Warsh is likely to confront a Federal Open Market Committee in no mood
to ease. In fact, several officials of late have stressed the need for the Fed
to keep its options
open for
rate hikes ahead.
If it looked like outgoing Governor
Stephen Miran was
a lone wolf howling for reductions, seeing a Fed chair trying to defy his
fellow policymakers and push for cuts will loom even larger.
Those who have watched Warsh over the
years, from his prior stint as a Fed governor through his high-profile public
disagreements with Fed policy since, expect him to put up strong arguments for
cutting. The problem is, he’s likely to lose at least in the short term, a
situation that sets up some interesting communication issues for the new
central bank leader.
“I saw him in action. He does base his
decisions on his view of the economy, and even his arguments for why he would
favor rate decreases in general were based on his read of what’s happening
structurally in the economy,” said former Cleveland Fed President Loretta
Mester, who served with the Philadelphia Fed during the prior period when Warsh
was on the board. “I just don’t think right now he can make those arguments in
a credible way, because we have an inflation problem.”
Indeed, surging inflation will be Warsh’s
first and primary policy challenge.
Officially, Warsh has echoed much of the
Trump administration’s position on the current run of price surges — mainly
that they are temporary and will fade once the fighting in Iran ceases and
various disinflationary forces, such as increased productivity, take over.
However, those arguments face a tougher
audience now with inflation levels
at multi-year highs.
Warsh made the “family fight” remarks
during his Senate confirmation hearing, a remark, along with other caustic
comments he’s made about the Fed, that central bank observers privately say
could come back to haunt him.
More
Kevin Warsh comes
into the Fed facing a big 'family fight' over cutting interest rates
The bond market is flashing a warning over Iran. A
veteran of energy geopolitics explains the risk
Published Sat, May 16 2026 10:01 AM EDT
Don’t look now, but the pain from high
energy prices might be about to bite Americans twice.
With no end in sight to the war in Iran
and oil prices stuck above $100 a barrel, bond traders worried about inflation
have sold off long-term
government debt in
the U.S. and developed economies in recent days. That has the effect of raising
bond yields, including on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which rose
nearly 24 basis points in the past week to end Friday near 4.6%.
The 10-year Treasury yield influences the
cost of mortgages, auto loans, credit card rates and other consumer debt. When
it goes up, consumers feel the pinch. Its rate is set by the market, not
the Federal Reserve.
To unpack what’s happening at the
intersection of geopolitics, energy, and global debt, CNBC reached out to Daleep
Singh,
vice chair and chief global economist at asset manager PGIM. Singh has seen
global energy conflicts up close: As deputy
national security adviser under President Joe Biden, he designed that
administration’s economic effort to cut off Russia’s oil revenue. Earlier in
his career, Singh ran the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s markets desk, a
sensitive position that looks directly into the guts of the global financial
system.
Singh may have been appointed by a
Democrat, but he isn’t singing the party line. He began by praising Kevin Warsh, the conservative
economist appointed by President Donald Trump and confirmed by the
Senate on
Wednesday to chair the Fed.
The transcript of Singh’s conversation has
been edited for length and clarity. He spoke over Zoom on Friday.
Q: How do you think Kevin Warsh will fare
as Fed chair?
Daleep Singh: I’m optimistic
about Kevin Warsh. His intellectual work has been centered on how to sustain
the Fed’s most important asset, which is its credibility. That could not be
more important at a time when the central bank is under political assault. I
think he is going to be thoughtful and deliberate about judging the trade-offs
that are necessary to preserve the independence of monetary policy, maybe to
the detriment of other responsibilities the Fed once held.
It’s also super important to have a Fed
chair who has been battle-tested. Warsh has been, through the global financial
crisis. [Warsh was a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011.] He was credited by almost
everyone as being the eyes and ears of the Fed into Wall Street, and how that
was going in terms of transmitting the response to the real economy.
People who dismiss him as reflexively
partisan are missing a lot of what he brings to the table in terms of working
across the aisle.
Having said that, look, I do not think the
Fed should be cutting rates in this
moment. We’re going to find out really soon how much scope he has to do
the right thing.
More
The bond market is
flashing a warning, energy geopolitics expert warns
Iran energy crisis enters new phase as peak summer
season approaches
Emergency measures spread as oil
stockpiles run low
18 May 2026
Nearly 80 countries have now introduced
emergency measures to protect their economies as the world approaches a new,
more dangerous phase in the energy crisis driven by the Iran war.
Governments are stepping up their
responses ahead of a looming tipping point, when traders warn that oil prices could jump
again sharply unless more fuel trapped in the Gulf can be exported through the
blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
Paul Diggle, chief economist at fund
manager Aberdeen, said his team was now examining a scenario where Brent crude
rockets to $180 a barrel, causing surging inflation and recessions in a host of
European and Asian countries.
Demand for air conditioning and holiday
travel at the start of the northern hemisphere’s summer will put further strain
on supplies of crude oil, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, when global stocks are
already falling at the fastest rate on record.
Australia has pledged to spend $10bn to
boost its fuel and fertiliser stockpiles, while France has said it will “change
the scope and scale” of its support to shield its economy from the crisis.
India has urged the public not to buy gold or holiday abroad as it tries to shore
up its reserves of foreign currency.
The International Energy Agency estimates
that the number of countries that have already been forced into emergency
measures has reached 76, up from 55 at the end of March.
Economists and traders warn the next phase
of the crisis could bring another sharp jump in energy prices, broader fuel
rationing, industrial shutdowns and a significant slowdown in global
growth.
If the Middle East conflict “does not end in the coming weeks
and we don’t have the reopening of the Hormuz strait, I’m afraid a world
recession could be on the table”, the EU’s transport commissioner Apostolos
Tzitzikostas told an FT conference in Athens on Thursday.
Since the outbreak of the conflict, the
world has been existing beyond its energy means.
The IEA estimates that between March and
June global oil consumption will run roughly 6mn barrels a day above
production. Some analysts believe the shortfall could be closer to 8mn-9mn
barrels a day.
To cover the shortfall, traders have
drained stockpiles of oil on land and at sea and governments have pledged to
release their strategic reserves.
More than 2mn barrels a day of emergency
crude from strategic reserves are flowing into the system, but many of those
releases are scheduled to end by July.
More
Iran energy crisis
enters new phase as peak summer season approaches
Global oil stockpiles could hit record lows if
Strait of Hormuz remains closed
Published Sat, May 16 2026 9:25 AM EDT
Global oil inventories are falling at a
record pace to compensate for the big supply disruption in the Middle East and
they will approach critical levels if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen.
Higher prices for oil and fuel are likely
ahead of peak demand this summer as a consequence, the International Energy
Agency warned this week in its monthly update.
“Rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued
disruptions, may herald future price spikes ahead,” the IEA said.
The oil market has not felt the full
impact of the supply loss thanks to commercial inventories held by the
industry, strategic reserves controlled by governments and tankers in
transit, Exxon Mobil CEO Darren
Woods said on the oil major’s first-quarter earnings call.
These stocks mitigated the impact of the
disruption in March and April, Woods said. But commercial inventories will
eventually fall to levels where they can longer serve as a supply source, the
CEO said.
“We anticipate as that happens and the
strait remains closed, that we will continue to see increased prices in the
marketplace,” Woods said.
Stockpiles near record lows
Inventories were near a decade high at
just over 8 billion barrels at the end of February, Swiss bank UBS estimated in
a Tuesday report. By end of April, stockpiles fell to 7.8 billion barrels, UBS
analysts said.
Inventories will approach record lows of
7.6 billion barrels by end of May if demand remains the same month over month,
the UBS analysts said. Inventories falling to that level would stress the
supply chain, JPMorgan analysts said in an April 30 note.
Billions of barrels in inventory may sound
like a lot but the reality is that only about 800 million barrels are available
without straining the system, the JPMorgan analysts said. The rest is needed to
keep pipelines and tanks filled at minimum levels so the supply chain operates
efficiently, they said.
“Like blood pressure in the human body,
the issue is circulation,” said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global
commodities strategy. “The system does not fail because oil disappears, it
fails because the circulation network no longer has enough working volume.”
Oil inventories would fall to a critically
low level of 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed at that
time, JPMorgan forecast. Product inventories would hit critical levels sooner
in July or August, according to a forecast from Rapidan Energy.
The global economy would “seize up, with
critical transportation infrastructure unable to source fuel at any price,”
Rapidan analysts said in May 7 note.
But inventories are very unlikely to reach
these critically low levels, the analysts said. Instead, oil and product prices
will spike to curtail demand which will cause “a severe economic contraction.”
“That’s likely to happen before 3Q26,” the
Rapidan analysts said.
Global oil
stockpiles could hit record lows if Hormuz Strait stays closed
In other news.
Are we really headed for a ‘super’ El Niño? What
the science says
An El Niño is coming, models say,
but Nature spoke to researchers about when and how we’ll know
its intensity.
14 May 2026
Headlines have been proclaiming that one
of the strongest El Niño weather patterns in recent decades might be starting
up later this year. If a big one kicks in, as forecasts currently suggest, it
could bring floods, droughts and other
weather extremes to many parts of the globe, as well as potentially boost
2027’s temperatures to record highs.
But how sure are meteorologists that this
‘super’ El Niño is on the horizon?
In the past few months, sea surface
temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed more than
usual, which is the hallmark of an emerging El Niño. Still uncertain, however,
is whether winds and other weather factors will either ratchet up that ocean
heat or temper it — and therefore weaken the possibility of a strong El Niño.
The latest forecast from the US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released today,
suggests that there is a strong chance of an El Niño developing between May and
July this year, but that there is much uncertainty over its peak strength. This
will become clearer during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. (El Niños
typically reach their maximum from October to February.)
Intensity uncertainty
El Niño is a complex global event that
recurs roughly every two to seven years. The last one, in 2023–24, brought
impacts, including drought and hunger, to parts of southern Africa and record floods to
southern Brazil.
It also contributed to 2024 being the hottest year
on record.
This year, sea surface temperatures in the
central and eastern tropical Pacific have been warmer than normal, rising by as
much as 1 ºC above average in recent weeks off the western coast of South
America. On that basis, computer models from various government agencies and
research groups suggest that the coming El Niño could peak more strongly than
the previous one.
NOAA said in its 14 May report that there
is an 82% chance of an El Niño arriving between May and July, and a 96% chance
of it developing by December. But on the basis of current observations, the
agency predicted only a 37% chance of it being in the topmost categorization,
the ‘very strong’ category, in which ocean temperatures in the central and
eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are more than 2 ºC above average. The European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts estimated in a report on 1 May that those
ocean waters could reach 3 ºC above average by November (see ‘Extreme
prediction’).
Some researchers use the term super El
Niño to describe instances when the ocean temperature rises to 2 ºC or more
above baseline. The last El Niño to reach that threshold happened in 2015–16.
Which way the wind blows
El Niño watchers caution that there are
many unknown factors that could still affect how this year plays out. “Our
current forecasts don’t tell us what type of El Niño we are heading towards,”
says Andréa Taschetto, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales
in Sydney, Australia. Whether the Pacific Ocean continues to warm most in the
eastern rather than the central region could make a big difference to the
intensity of the weather pattern that develops and any damage it might cause,
she says.
Winds could have a large effect, says
Emily Becker, a climate scientist at the University of Miami in Florida. Just a
few days of strong east-to-west trade winds in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
could cool waters and weaken a fledgling El Niño, she notes. Conversely, if the
trade winds slacken, that “could really kick things into gear”, she says.
Forecasters should know more in the coming
weeks, once they get past the notorious ‘spring predictability barrier’, which
refers to spring in the Northern Hemisphere. During this period, it is
unusually difficult for forecasts to accurately capture the weather variability
that can lead to El Niño.
More
Are we really
headed for a ‘super’ El Niño? What the science says
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world.
Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted.
Alan Greenspan
Mounting inflation pressures deepen global bond slide
15 May 2026
A weekslong rout in
global government bonds intensified Friday, with fading hopes for a U.S.-Iran
peace deal colliding with growing concerns about fiscal policies in two of the
world’s largest economies.
Sliding bond prices drove
the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest level in
more than a year, helping pause a stock rally that had just carried the S&P
500 and Nasdaq composite to new records.
Bonds have been hurt for months by the rise in energy prices sparked by the
U.S.-Iran conflict. But they came under particular pressure Friday thanks to a
confluence of disparate developments worldwide.
The main headwind remains
Iran. As the weeks go by without a deal, investors have become increasingly
pessimistic that the U.S. and Iran will reach an agreement soon that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz
and bring down energy prices. Investors had held out hope that President
Trump’s visit to China could yield some progress on that front, but were left
disappointed by the results of the trip.
Meanwhile, particularly
sharp selloffs in Japanese and U.K. government bonds spilled over into the U.S.
and other markets Friday.
In Japan, price declines
were powered by hot inflation data and signs that the government will borrow
and spend more to blunt the impact of higher energy costs. In the U.K.,
investors reacted to the growing threat of a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, which raised
fresh questions about the country’s economic and fiscal trajectory.
While concerns about
domestic inflation have been growing, “today’s move in yields in the U.S., I
think, are a direct result of what’s happening in non-U.S. yields,” said Leah
Traub, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Lord Abbett.
Yields on Treasurys,
which rise when bond prices fall, are heavily influenced by investors’
expectations for what short-term interest rates set by the Federal Reserve will
average over the life of a bond.
As the Iran conflict has
dragged on, investors have started betting that energy prices will stay high for longer than originally presumed, pushing the Fed to
consider raising interest rates. That is a shift from before the war, when
investors expected the Fed to cut rates this year.
When yields rise sharply
overseas, U.S. yields typically also rise to reflect the fact that investors
can now buy higher-yielding bonds elsewhere.
Yields surged across the
world on Friday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note—a benchmark for
borrowing costs across the economy—settled at 4.595%, its highest closing level
since February 2025.
The yield on the 30-year
U.S. Treasury bond rose around 0.12 percentage point to 5.127%, its highest
closing level since 2007. The Japanese 30-year yield jumped around 0.16
percentage point, while the U.K. 30-year yield surged 0.19 percentage point.
Oil prices also rose in
response to the lack of progress toward a Hormuz deal, with U.S. crude
front-month futures gaining 4.2% to $105.42 a barrel.
Stocks fell broadly, with
the energy sector the lone bright spot. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, but still
eked out a 0.1% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.1%, or
537 points, while the Nasdaq composite gave up 1.5%.
More
Mounting inflation pressures deepen global bond slide
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
CATL turns to sodium. Approx. 14
minutes.
Why the biggest battery company is betting against lithium
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
There can be no other criterion, no other standard than gold.
Yes, gold which never changes, which can be shaped into ingots, bars, coins,
which has no nationality and which is eternally and universally accepted as the
unalterable fiduciary value par excellence.
Charles de Gaulle
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