Baltic
Dry Index. 3001 +23 Brent Crude 104.82
Spot Gold 4729 Spot Silver 86.72
US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 39.231 trillion
US GDP 32.111 trillion.
GammaRoad Capital Partners’ CIO
Jordan Rizzuto describes as a “show me” market, one in which investors are
increasingly unwilling to react to risks unless they materially disrupt
economic or corporate fundamentals.
After weathering the pandemic, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes and tariff fears in recent years, investors have become conditioned to buy market weakness rather than retreat from it, he wrote in a note Tuesday.
In the global stock casinos, the greatest disconnect from reality ever. All news is good news! AI forever!!
Dinosaur Graeme doesn’t see it like that. Unless some sanity returns in the District of Crooks and fast, Dinosaur Graeme sees a massively disrupted global supply economy headed into depression no later than 2027. There is simply no sign of sanity returning in the District of Crooks. That’s depression not recession!
My depression prediction of 2027 might be off by as much as six months.
In the USA real pain might hit as early as the Memorial Day holiday, Monday May 25th, though I think it will hit more severely on the July 4th Independence Day holiday.
In Asia, the great Trump global supply chain disruption is already hitting daily. I think it will start hitting in Europe sometime next month.
If I’m even halfway correct in my assessment of what comes next, stocks are heading for a 1929 type of crash. Bonds will probably be the big winner, although at some point physical gold and silver will make a big asset comeback in the global financial economy.
Asia markets trade mixed as investors weigh
Trump’s ceasefire warning
Published Mon, May 11 2026 7:41 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday
as investors shrugged off fresh doubts over the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire
after President Donald Trump warned the truce was on “massive life support.”
Trump on Monday cast
doubt on the survival of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, saying the fragile
truce was effectively “on life support” after Tehran delivered what he
described as an unacceptable response to Washington’s proposal for ending the
conflict.
“I would say the ceasefire is on massive
life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has
approximately a 1% chance of living,’” he said.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.19%,
while the Topix rose 0.27%. South Korea’s Kospi gave up earlier gains to fall
over 3% after notching a fresh record high on Monday. The small-cap Kosdaq fell
over 4%. In Australia, the S&P/ASX
200 lost 0.82%.
Yields of Japan’s 10-year government bond
hit their highest point since 1997, rising to a high of 2.545% after minutes from the Bank of Japan revealed that some
board members said that the BOJ should raise rates soon
Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 0.47%
while the CSI 300 opened flat.
Despite mounting geopolitical tensions,
higher oil prices and lingering inflation concerns, global equities have
continued to push higher, underscoring what GammaRoad Capital Partners’ CIO
Jordan Rizzuto describes as a “show me” market, one in which investors are
increasingly unwilling to react to risks unless they materially disrupt
economic or corporate fundamentals.
After weathering the pandemic, surging
inflation, aggressive rate hikes and tariff fears in recent years, investors
have become conditioned to buy market weakness rather than retreat from it, he
wrote in a note Tuesday.
Rizzuto added that structural factors are
also reinforcing the rally, including retail flows into leveraged
exchange-traded funds and call options. This has prompted dealers to buy
underlying equities as hedges, leading to the rapid expansion of buffer funds
and hedged equity strategies that provide additional downside protection.
In the U.S., S&P 500 futures were
marginally higher, and Nasdaq
100 futures added 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added 24 points, or less than 0.1%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 rose, bolstered
by key tech stocks even as oil prices rose after Trump rejected Iran’s latest
proposal to end the war.
The broad market index gained 0.19% and
closed at 7,412.84, while the Nasdaq
Composite inched up 0.1% to end at 26,274.13. Both indexes hit fresh
all-time intraday highs during the session, and they closed at records.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average advanced 95.31 points, or 0.19%, to 49,704.47.
Asia
markets: Kospi, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225
Stock futures slip as traders await inflation
reading, monitor Iran war developments: Live updates
Updated Tue, May 12 2026 12:28 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures slipped early Tuesday
as traders looked ahead to the release of April’s
consumer price index reading.
S&P 500 futures were
0.16% lower, and Nasdaq 100
futures dropped 0.33%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average were marginally lower.
During the day’s regular session, both
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to
fresh intraday and closing highs. The broad market index added 0.19%, while the
technology-heavy Nasdaq eked out a 0.1% gain. The Dow gained 95.31 points, or
0.19%.
Oil prices rose on Monday after President
Donald Trump called the month-old ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran
“unbelievably weak” and said it was “on
massive life support” after rejecting an “unacceptable” counterproposal
from Tehran to end the war. In its latest
counteroffer, Iran has insisted on war
reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the release
of frozen Iranian assets and the need to lift sanctions.
On Tuesday morning, April’s consumer price
index reading is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Dow Jones are
calling for headline inflation to have gained 3.7% from a year earlier. They
anticipate April’s CPI will have grown 0.6% from the prior month.
A solid earnings season has continued to
push stocks to new highs in recent sessions. Marci McGregor, head of portfolio
strategy, chief investment office, at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank,
said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday afternoon that she’s still feeling good
about the markets overall.
“If we get weakness after this really
strong recovery from the March lows, I would see it as a buying opportunity,
because this is a market that is being fueled by corporate profits, by capex,
and frankly by a strong labor market,” she
said. “There’s a lot of reasons to be positive.”
Under
Armour, Vodafone, On Holding, Aramark, eToro and Tencent Music Entertainment are
among the stocks reporting earnings before Tuesday’s opening bell. In addition
to April’s consumer price index reading, traders will also watch for April’s
final hourly earnings, average workweek and treasury budget readings.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Oil prices extend gains as Trump comments diminish
hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal
Published Mon, May 11 2026 8:21 PM EDT
Oil prices rose Tuesday as U.S.
President Donald Trump said
that the ceasefire with Iran was on life support after rejecting Tehran’s
counterproposal to end the war, signaling the conflict in the Middle East could
drag on.
International benchmark Brent crude futures
for July gained 0.96% to $105.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
for June rose 1.10% to $99.15 per barrel.
Trump told reporters that the state of the
ceasefire is “unbelievably weak,” calling Iran’s counterproposal to end the
conflict “garbage.”
“I would say the ceasefire is on massive
life support, where the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has
approximately a 1% chance of living,’” Trump
said.
Since the U.S. and Israeli-led war against
Iran started on Feb. 28, WTI and Brent are both up more than 40%.
“Oil prices have been volatile and can rise further if US-Iran dealmaking
remains thorny,” Citi said in a note.
---- The oil market will take until
2027 to normalize if the Strait of Hormuz stays blocked beyond mid-June, Saudi
Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned Monday.
“If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it
will still take months for the market to rebalance, and if its opening is
delayed by a few more weeks, then normalization will last into
2027,” Nasser, who heads the world’s largest oil company, told investors
on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.
Oil
prices today: Brent, WTI rise as Iran tensions escalate
Gulf War Sends World Currencies in Search of
Equilibrium
May 11, 2026 at 5:00 PM GMT+1
The world’s currencies are in search of
new equilibrium after the war against Iran dislodged business-as-usual in
energy and debt markets. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant landed in Tokyo today to discuss persistent yen weakness. The currency — long a favorite
among European traders — has come under fresh pressure following the US-Israeli
war against Iran. With more than 95% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East,
Japan is highly exposed to disruptions in the region.
Closer to home, the strength of
Switzerland’s franc is bleeding into the economy. Long seen as a haven in stormy markets, its strength is now forcing
domestic watchmakers to lay off workers as their time pieces become more
expensive in foreign currencies.
The Persian Gulf conflict is also taking
its toll on a lucrative bet on the Turkish lira. That currency is coming
under strain as a surge in energy oil import bills threatens to accelerate the
currency’s slide. And over in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is appealing
to citizens to cut fuel use and limit travel to ease the strain foreign-exchange reserves.
Taken together, the second and third-order
impacts of war on Iran are beginning to show in currency markets, where
investors are assessing how energy scarcity will impact the broader economy. In
Europe, it will likely mean at least two interest-rate hikes before year-end.
Check out today’s market wrap for more. —Jonathan
Tirone
What You Need to Know Today
There’s a race against time in oil
markets as the factors that combined to restrain price rises from the Iran war
come under strain if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into June. That’s the
assessment of bankers at Morgan Stanley, who warned oil prices could reach $150 a barrel if the
chokepoint remains closed past late June. Saudi Arabian exports to China are already plunging and the
International Energy Agency warned energy supply chains may be permanently altered.
The US and Iran remain far apart on a framework to end
their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with President Donald Trump calling
the Islamic Republic’s reply to his proposed peace plan unworkable Tehran
demanded a lifting of the US naval blockade and sanctions relief, while
maintaining a degree of control over traffic through Hormuz.
Gulf
War Sends World Currencies in Search of Equilibrium - Bloomberg
In other news.
Modi says Iran war poses severe risks to India,
urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases
Published Mon, May 11 2026 12:48 AM EDT
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on
Sunday urged citizens to curb fuel use, reduce overseas travel, and pause gold
purchases, underscoring the severe impact of the Iran war on the economy.
Global fuel costs have surged, Modi said
in a public
address in
the southern city of Hyderabad, appealing to Indians to use public transport,
work from home, and carpool to conserve fuel.
India is the latest among the growing number of
Asian countries encouraging
lower fuel consumption as energy costs climb amid tensions in the Middle East.
On Sunday, President Donald Trump said
Iran’s counterproposal to end the war with the U.S., and Israel was “TOTALLY
UNACCEPTABLE!”, dashing hopes of peace and pushing global oil prices
higher.
India imports nearly 85% of its
fuel needs and
relies on the Strait of Hormuz for about 50% of its crude imports, 60% of its
liquefied natural gas, and almost all of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
supplies.
Higher energy
costs are
expected to significantly widen the country’s trade deficit and current account
deficit. The rupee has also come under strain and is trading near an
all-time low against the
dollar.
Modi said reducing foreign travel and
gold imports would help conserve foreign currency reserves as higher oil prices
increase pressure on India’s import bill.
Shares of Indian jewelry companies fell by
as much as 10% on Monday, with the stock of the Tata group-owned jeweler Titan falling nearly 6% in early
trade.
Shares of Indian flight carrier IndiGo’s also fell 2.8%. The airline
is expanding
its services on international routes and expects overseas flights
to account for 40% of daily services by 2030, according to local
media reports.
Economic woes
India spent $174.9
billion on
crude and petroleum products, or 22% of its total imports in the financial year
ended March 2026, highlighting the economy’s dependence on overseas
commodities. The country is the world’s second-largest
gold buyer after
China, spending nearly $72 billion on gold imports.
About 32.7
million Indians traveled
abroad in 2025, including more than 14 million leisure travelers.
“The Middle East conflict represents a
historically large energy shock with asymmetric macro risks,” said global
brokerage UBS Securities in a May 4 note, lowering its forecast for India’s
economic growth in the financial year ending March 2027 to 6.2% from 6.7%
earlier.
“I don’t believe that a [economic] shock
is around the corner,” said Nirupama Rao, former Indian ambassador to the U.S.,
China and Sri Lanka, told CNBC’s Inside India on Monday.
However, she said the country faces
“difficult times ahead” unless there is peace or a resolution of the crisis in
the Middle East.
More
Modi says Iran war
poses severe risks to India, urges cuts in fuel use and gold purchases
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
UK households bracing
for new cost of living crisis, report finds
PwC
survey reports fast fall in consumer confidence with people worried about Iran
war’s impact on economy and personal finances
Mon 11 May 2026 07.00 BST
British households are
bracing for a new cost of living crisis, as the impact of the Middle East
conflict dampens confidence in the economy and personal finances, a survey has
suggested.
Consumer confidence in
the UK has dipped over the last three months at the fastest rate since June
2022, when inflation in the UK was soaring as a result of Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine and the spike in commodity prices.
The quarterly survey from
the accountancy firm PwC, which measures factors
such as consumers’ spending intentions and how well off they feel, recorded a
score of -13 in April, a sharp fall from -1 in January and the lowest level
since autumn 2023.
PwC said confidence about
household finances was down across all age groups, although young people were
still more optimistic than older people, despite there being a 20% fall in
those under 35 who feel financially healthy and a 9% increase in those who are
struggling or in trouble with their bills and finances.
Almost 90% of 2,068
consumers surveyed by PwC said they were concerned about the cost of living,
and almost 80% plan to cut back on their spending in the next three months. The
proportion of those who say they will drive less to save money on rising fuel
costs has doubled from 12% to 24% since January.
“Rising costs are
prompting shoppers to pull back spend across the board, and it’s expected
sentiment will get worse before it gets better, as consumers face higher energy
and food costs later in the year,” said Sam Waller, the leader of industry for
consumer markets at PwC UK.
The PwC report mirrors
other consumer confidence surveys, with the data company GfK also reporting
last month that UK consumer confidence slid in April to its lowest level since October 2023, amid the mounting economic
fallout from the Iran war.
It also reflects the
situation in the US, after data on Friday showed consumer confidence there fell to a fresh record low on concerns about higher prices.
The Bank of England said
last week that higher inflation in the UK was going to be “unavoidable” due to the Middle East conflict, which will
push up the price of fuel, food and energy.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
More on a problem that’s only going to
get worse with each passing year.
UK
firefighters called to one lithium-ion battery fire every five hours
FoI
responses collected by insurer show brigades tackled 1,760 battery-linked fires
in 2025, up 147% in three years
Mon 11 May 2026 07.00 BST
Fire brigades across the UK are tackling
lithium-ion battery fires at a rate of one every five hours, figures show, as
fire chiefs warn that public awareness and government regulation have not kept
pace with the ubiquity of this new hazard.
Lithium-ion batteries power most
rechargeable devices including mobile phones, electric toothbrushes, toys and
vapes, as well as ebikes, e-scooters and electric vehicles.
Data gathered by the global business
insurer QBE via freedom of information requests reveals that fire brigades were
called to 1,760 fires linked to lithium-ion batteries in 2025, equating to 4.8
fires a day, an increase of 147% over the past three years.
Electric vehicle fires rose by 133% over
the same period, while the number of electric vehicles on UK roads tripled
during that time.
QBE researchers found that ebike fires
made up nearly a third of all lithium-ion battery fires nationally and noted
that retrofitted and converted ebikes appeared to be disproportionately
involved compared with certified models.
There were 520 callouts to fires
involving ebikes in 2025, compared with 149 in 2022. London fire brigade (LFB)
tackled 44% of these, with 230 ebike fires occurring in the capital last year
and five related fatalities in the past three years.
LFB’s deputy commissioner for
prevention, Spencer Sutcliff, said the brigade remained “extremely
concerned” about ebike and e-scooter fires, and public awareness was vital.
“We believe regulation can help improve
product safety and reduce the chance of consumers being exposed on online
marketplaces to faulty or counterfeit products such as ebike batteries,
chargers and conversion kits,” he said.
A blaze that devastated a historic building in
Glasgow and resulted in the two-week closure of Central station, Scotland’s
largest rail interchange, is believed to have started in a shop selling vapes,
which are powered by lithium-ion batteries.
If used incorrectly or damaged, these
batteries can cause a hazard called thermal runaway, a dangerous chain reaction
where the temperature inside the battery rises uncontrollably, producing a
toxic gas that vents at high pressure, creating a flame like a blowtorch, and
exploding.
Collating data received from 46 out of
52 fire brigades contacted across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern
Ireland, QBE researchers also found that nearly half (46%) of all lithium-ion
fires took place in people’s homes.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Nations, like individuals, cannot become desperate gamblers with
impunity. Punishment is sure to overtake them sooner or later.
Charles Mackay (1852). “Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”.
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