Baltic
Dry Index. 3034 +43 Brent Crude 101.85
Spot Gold 4723 Spot Silver 80.15
US 2 Year Yield 3.92 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 39.214 trillion
US GDP 32.098 trillion.
People who count their chickens before they are hatched act very
wisely because chickens run about so absurdly that it's impossible to count
them accurately.
Oscar Wilde
Today,
when is a ceasefire not a ceasefire?
Does
anyone care in the GIANT AI bubble?
Iran
fires at three US warships in Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire on brink of
collapse
7
May 2026
Iran
has fired missiles at three warships in the Strait of Hormuz, with the fragile
ceasefire with the US on the brink of collapse.
Iran's
top military command has accused the US of a "violation of the
ceasefire" and alleges it targeted an Iranian oil tanker moving towards
the Strait of Hormuz.
A
spokesperson for Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said another
vessel entering the strait opposite the Emirati port of Fujairah was targeted,
according to a statement published on Telegram by Iran's IRIB state
broadcaster.
The
spokesperson said "aerial attacks" were also carried out along the
coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik and Qeshm Island. They added that Iran's armed
fores "immediately responded" by attacking US military vessels,
inflicting "significant damage".
It
came after the US military carried out strikes on Iran's Qeshm Port and the
city of Bandar Abbas, a move described by US President Donald Trump as a
"love tap".
US
CENTCOM said: "US Forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and
responded with self-defense strikes as U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers
transited the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, May 7.
"Iranian
forces launched multiple missiles, drones and small boats as USS Truxtun (DDG
103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87) transited the
international sea passage. No U.S. assets were struck.
More
Iran
fires at three US warships in Strait of Hormuz as ceasefire on brink of
collapse
Iran
War Shockwaves Spread Across US Economy
May
7, 2026 at 11:39 PM GMT+1
The
economic shockwaves of the Iran war have spread beyond the average American
consumer cursing under their breath at the pump. Now the businesses that would
have pocketed that additional dollar or more being spent on each gallon of gas
are sounding
the alarm.
US
gas prices, at around $4.56 a gallon on average, are at their highest levels
since July 2022, according to data from the American Automobile Association. In
a country where affordability was already the watchword when the US and Israel
attacked Iran, it was only a matter of time before the pain spread.
Executives
across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about US
shoppers with tighter budgets. Meanwhile, economists warn the disruptions from
the war could lead to higher prices for a wider range of goods—including food.
“They’re
literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz Chief
Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said. “We’re seeing negative cash
flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.” —David
E. Rovella
War’s
Economic Damage to US Spreads: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Chinese-owned
oil tanker hit near Hormuz as US pauses ship-protection plan, report says
Thu,
May 7, 2026 at 4:05 PM GMT+1
LONDON/ATHENS,
May 7 (Reuters) - A Chinese-owned oil products tanker was attacked near the
Strait of Hormuz on Monday, Chinese media outlet Caixin reported, as President
Donald Trump launched a U.S. plan that day to help stranded vessels but
suspended it a day later.
This
was the first time a Chinese oil tanker has been attacked, a person with
knowledge of the matter told Caixin on Thursday.
Traffic
through the vital strait, through which 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies
pass, has been at a virtual standstill since the Iran conflict began on
February 28.
The
unnamed vessel's deck caught fire and the ship was marked "CHINA OWNER
& CREW," according to Caixin.
It
was not clear if any of the vessel's crew were injured.
More
Chinese-owned oil tanker hit near Hormuz as US pauses ship-protection plan, report says
Next, did a very unlikely MBS just clip Caesar Nero’s wings and take away his violin?
Trump reverses Hormuz plan after Saudi Arabia
suspends U.S. access to bases, airspace: NBC
2026-05-07 14:54:45
WASHINGTON, May 7 (Xinhua) -- U.S.
President Donald Trump abruptly reversed his plan to escort ships through the
Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia blocked U.S. use of its bases and airspace
for the operation, NBC News reported Wednesday, citing two U.S. officials.
Trump's announcement of "Project
Freedom" on social media reportedly angered Saudi leadership, the report
said.
A call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman Al Saud failed to resolve the issue, forcing Trump to pause the plan
to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
Trump reverses Hormuz plan after Saudi Arabia suspends U.S. access to bases, airspace: NBC-Xinhua
U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s
Hormuz blockade for months
May 7, 2026
A confidential CIA analysis delivered to administration policymakers this week concludes that Iran can survive the U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more severe economic hardship, four people familiar with the document said, a finding that appears to raise new questions about President Donald Trump’s optimism on ending the war.
The analysis by the U.S. intelligence community, whose secret assessments on Iran have often been more sober than the administration’s public statements, also found that Tehran retains significant ballistic missile capabilities despite weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment, three of the people familiar with it said.
Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began.
Trump painted a rosier picture in Oval Office remarks on Wednesday, saying of Iran: “Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19 percent, but not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
Three current and one former U.S. official
confirmed the outlines of the intelligence analysis, speaking on the condition
of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.
More
U.S.
intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s Hormuz blockade for months – DNYUZ
Asia-Pacific markets fall as renewed U.S.-Iran
clashes keep investors on edge
May 7 2026 7:47 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Friday,
as concerns grew over renewed hostilities between Iran and the U.S. amid a
fragile ceasefire.
The U.S. and Iran traded fire in the Strait
of Hormuz, with each side claiming the other initiated the attack.
Despite the escalation, President Donald Trump insisted that
the ceasefire remains in effect, saying the strikes are “just a love tap”
during a call with an ABC News reporter later Thursday.
Trump later claimed in a subsequent Truth Social post that the U.S. “completely destroyed”
the Iranians involved in the exchange, which he said included small boats and
drones that “dropped ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a
butterfly dropping to its grave!”
He reiterated that Iran will face further
attacks if they do not agree to a nuclear deal.
“Just like we knocked them out again
today, we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the
future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” Trump wrote.
Oil futures pared early gains. The West Texas Intermediate futures
for June was 0.81% higher at $95.85 per barrel as of 11:45 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for
July gained 1.07% at $101.13 per barrel.
South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.93% while
the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.35% higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.68%
amid some profit-taking after hitting a record high on Thursday.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 extended
early losses, declining 1.74%.
Mainland China’s CSI300 index was trading
0.90% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index dropped 1.19%.
India’s Nifty50 declined 0.50%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were down
less than 0.1%. Futures tied
to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12 points, or less than 0.1%.
During Thursday’s regular session, the
broad market S&P 500 fell
0.38% to close at 7,337.11, dragged lower by losses in Amazon as well as
semiconductor stocks such as Broadcom and Micron Technology. The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.13%
and ended at 25,806.20. The tech-heavy index had also scored a fresh all-time
high during the session. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average shed 313.62 points, or 0.63%, settling at
49,596.97.
Asia-Pacific
today: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Kospi, Sensex, CSI 300
Iran focus at Trump-Xi summit may delay progress
on tariffs, rare earths
Published Thu, May 7 2026 8:56 PM EDT
BEIJING — The Iran war is likely to take
center stage in the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and
China’s Xi Jinping, leaving
less scope to resolve issues like tariffs and rare earth supplies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has
already said that Iran will be a topic in the meetings, which are due to take
place May 14 and 15. And earlier this week, China hosted
Iran’s foreign minister for the first time since the war began in late
February -- raising hopes for a
peace deal, sending oil
prices lower and fueling stock-market gains.
The U.S. government declined China’s
invitation to organize industry-specific meetings between senior Chinese
leaders and U.S. CEOs, thinking it could make American businesses appear too
close to Beijing, according to a U.S. executive with direct knowledge of the
arrangements. As of Tuesday, the White House had yet to formally invite
executives to join Trump on the trip, and a proposed list of two dozen
leaders could be halved, the person added.
Boeing and Citigroup CEOs are among
those set
to accompany Trump, two separate sources said. The U.S. aircraft giant is
expected to seal its first large order from China in nearly a decade around the
summit.
Xi has hosted a
dozen national leaders this year, from the U.K. to
South Korea — who often bring large
business delegations. Still, corporations may not object to the decreased
focus if it resolves a large geopolitical overhang for them.
An end to the Iran war would be a “great
relief to global business,” said Hai Zhao, a director of international
political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-affiliated
think tank. It would “be remembered as very much the success” for the Trump-Xi
summit.
However, the U.S. and Iran have traded
fire in the Strait of Hormuz again, each blaming the other for
initiating the attack. Just a few days earlier, a Chinese-owned oil tanker was also struck, according to
Chinese media outlet Caixin. CNBC was unable to independently confirm the
report.
If a smaller group of executives joins
Trump’s visit to China, it would contrast with the president’s trip to Saudi
Arabia last May, when more
than 30 U.S. executives accompanied him. When Trump visited China
during his first term in 2017, the last sitting U.S. president to do so, nearly
30 CEOs accompanied him – signing 37
major deals worth more than $250 billion.
But the expected images of Trump and Xi
together may still send a signal within China that it’s more acceptable again
to engage with U.S. businesses, said Michael Hart, president of the
Beijing-based American Chamber of Commerce of China.
“Since U.S. military actions earlier this
year, Chinese officials have been more hesitant to engage with the American
business community,” he said.
China welcomes U.S. business expansion and
hopes the companies can keep advancing bilateral economic relations, the
foreign ministry told CNBC. China’s commerce ministry didn’t respond to a
request for comment.
More
Iran
focus at Trump-Xi summit may delay progress on tariffs, rare earths
Finally, be prepared for food inflation next
year.
Why the odds keep rising for the strongest El Niño
in a century
El Niño patterns are correlated with food
shortages, water impacts and even civil conflict in tropical countries.
May 6, 2026 at 9:27 a.m. EDT
Chances are rising that an El Niño
expected to form soon could become one of the most powerful such events on
record, according to new data released this week.
The latest outlook from the European
Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows water temperatures in a
key region of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean potentially reaching 3
degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average late in the year. That
could approach or even surpass the current records set in 1877 and 2015 and
exceed the threshold for a super El Niño.
“Confidence is clearly shifting higher on
potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s,” wrote Paul Roundy,
a professor of atmospheric science at the State University of New York at
Albany. Records for El Niño began around 1850.
It’s the third consecutive month that
multiple models have
predicted that a potentially record-breaking El Niño could drive global
temperatures to new highs and shift patterns of droughts, floods, heat,
humidity and sea ice across the planet. The coming conditions could
have significant consequences for agriculture, health and the economy across
the planet.
The odds for a powerful El Niño were
boosted by a rare triplet
cyclone pattern in
the Pacific last month, which caused a record-breaking
burst of wind that
created a freight train of
warm water beneath
the ocean surface that’s reached 7 degrees Celsius (12.6 degrees Fahrenheit)
above average. That’s a major anomaly in the ocean, which typically takes a
long time to warm up and cool down.
“El Niño patterns are correlated with food
shortages, water impacts and even civil conflict in tropical countries,” said
climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe. “So these natural patterns of variability,
as short-lived as they are, still have a profound impact on human society and
human well-being.”
El Niño is gradually beginning to affect
weather patterns, with NOAA data suggesting
the phenomenon may fully form by July.
These are some of the weather impacts
predicted to unfold through November that are at least partly connected to the
developing El Niño:
- Tropical
storm and monsoon activity: Reduced hurricane activity in
the Atlantic Ocean and possible drought in the Caribbean islands.
Increased hurricane and typhoon risk in the Pacific Ocean, including
Hawaii, Guam and parts of eastern Asia. Reduced rainfall from the monsoon in
central and northern India as well as elevated odds for extreme heat,
which could cause droughts that impact agricultural production.
- Droughts
and floods: Increased chances for developing droughts in
portions of Central Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, the
Philippines, some South Pacific islands, Central America and stretches of
northern South America, including northern Brazil, particularly later in
the year. Elevated risks for heavy rain that could cause flooding in parts
of Peru and Ecuador, southern Brazil, parts of northern and eastern
Africa, the Middle East, the equatorial Pacific as well as the southern
United States, especially later in the year.
More
Why the coming El
Niño could be one of the strongest on record - The Washington Post
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of
imagination.
Washington D.C. Oscar Wilde
Shipping
giant boss warns Iran war will have bigger impact in coming months as customers
face price hikes
Published
Thu, May 7 2026 4:36 AM EDT
The
U.S.-Iran war had created a “new wake-up call” for global trade, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told CNBC
on Thursday, warning that the impact could worsen in the coming months.
Speaking
to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” after Maersk posted its first-quarter earnings,
Clerc said the group is facing intense cost pressures that would have to be
passed on to customers.
“We
are highly energy intensive industry, and that has created a whole new set of
circumstances that we now have to deal with,” he said. “That will have an
important impact on the second and third quarter,”
Oil
costs surged as the war in the Middle East intensified, with ongoing
uncertainty around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeping prices elevated.
The spike in oil prices has also fueled concerns that inflation will be pushed
higher in many economies.
On
Thursday, global benchmark Brent crude futures were down by 2.2% to $93.01 a
barrel, amid hopes that
Washington and Tehran were close to agreeing on a peace deal.
“What
this this energy shock is going to mean is about $500 million of extra costs
per month for as long as the oil remains around in the in the $100 per barrel
neighborhood, that is significant,” Clerc told CNBC. “And there is so much we
can do on reducing costs, but there is a lot we need to do on passing on these
costs to customers, because it’s such a massive cost increase that we can’t
shoulder it.”
He
added that the conflict was raising questions about how long the shipping
industry — and consumption — could remain resilient.
More
Maersk CEO warns
Iran war will have bigger impact in coming months
Norway’s
central bank raises interest rates to curb inflation; European stocks dip
Published
Thu, May 7 2026 2:09 AM EDT
European
stocks dipped on Thursday as investors await the outcome of reports that
Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to end the war.
The
pan-European Stoxx 600 index was
0.3% lower shortly after midday in London, reversing earlier gains. The
U.K.’s FTSE 100 fell 0.65%,
while France’s Cac 40 and
Germany’s Dax fell 0.2%
and 0.25%, respectively.
Norway’s
central bank raised
interest rates by
25 basis points to 4.25% on Wednesday, the first major central bank to do so
since the war in Iran re-ignited fears of inflation across the globe.
“Inflation
is too high and has run above target for several years”, said Norges governor
Ida Wolden Bache in a statement.
“The
monetary policy outlook does not appear to have changed materially since March,
but the war in the Middle East is still causing substantial uncertainty about
the economic outlook.”
More
Norway's central
bank raises interest rates; European stocks dip
Iran war could see 5.8% inflation and cost Treasury up to £8bn a year
The IPPR urged the
Government to act to mitigate the risk of the US and Israel’s war with Iran
causing long-term damage to the UK economy and public finances.
7 May 2026, 00:01
The Iran war could cost the Treasury up to £8
billion a year through higher debt interest payments and lower tax revenues,
according to a report.
Inflation could peak as high as 5.8% if the
conflict in the Middle East ends up in a prolonged stalemate, new modelling by
the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) indicates.
This figure, measured by the Consumer Price Index
(CPI), is well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
As over a quarter of UK debt is index-linked,
increased inflation directly results in higher debt servicing costs.
Meanwhile, the think tank warned that real GDP
growth could fall as low as 0.3%.
The IPPR urged the Government to act to mitigate
the risk of the US and Israel’s war with Iran causing long-term damage to the
UK economy and public finances.
The report’s recommendations include introducing a
temporary energy price cap at £2,000 to limit inflation, while maintaining
incentives to reduce consumption.
The IPPR also suggested implementing a temporary
10p fuel duty cut to offset rising oil prices.
The think tank argued that these should be paired
with measures to reduce energy demand, including lowering speed limits.
Finally, the IPPR urged the Government for
“targeted, progressive” taxes, such as a strengthened windfall tax on energy
profits.
This package of measures would cost up to £5
billion per year, depending on the severity of the shock, the report said.
More
Iran war
could see 5.8% inflation and cost Treasury up to £8bn a year | LBC
Fed's Musalem: Risks have shifted towards higher inflation
May 6, 2026
WASHINGTON, May 6
(Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said Wednesday the risks to
monetary policy have shifted towards higher inflation, possibly requiring
interest rates to stay on hold for some time amid a seemingly stable job
market.
"Inflation is
running meaningfully above our target," Musalem said in comments to the
Mississippi Bankers Association. "We have risks both on the employment
side and on the inflation side. In my understanding risks have been shifting
towards more risks on the inflation side."
The situation is at the
point, Musalem said, where the Fed's policy rate of interest may have to stay
on hold until it is clear inflation is returning to the central bank's 2%
target, but that there also were "plausible scenarios" under which the
Fed could cut rates, and also under which the Fed would have to hike them.
"There's a lot of
uncertainty right now, and it's important to see how things settle," said
Musalem, noting that inflation pressures were moving beyond the impact of
tariffs and high oil prices due to the U.S.-backed war with Iran.
Oil prices have been
volatile, spiking and falling amid news reports about progress - or lack of it
- in ending the dispute. The global benchmark price dropped fast overnight on
news of a possible settlement but then rose back above $100 a barrel. U.S.
gasoline prices have risen from around $3 to $4.50 a gallon. A New York Fed
measure of global supply chain pressure, meanwhile, jumped to the highest since
July of 2022 when manufacturing chains were still snarled from the pandemic and
the world faced a systemic surge in prices.
"This is also
underlying inflation that we need to worry about," Musalem said, with
business executives telling him that higher prices for aluminum, helium, diesel
fuel and other industrial inputs "will all be disruptive...There's a
confidence effect" that may suppress hiring even as it risks higher price
increases.
The net result for the
Fed may be an extended pause in any change to a policy rate that has been kept
on hold since December in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, stalling what had been
anticipated continued rate cuts and complicating incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh's
ability to deliver the rate cuts President Donald Trump has said he expects.
Investors don't
anticipate rate cuts at least until the second half of 2027.
Musalem is not currently
a voter on rate policy, but his comments demonstrate what Fed Chair Jerome
Powell said is movement at the "center" of the Fed towards the
possibility that rate hikes might be needed to combat inflation risks.
The Personal Consumption
Expenditures price index, used by the Fed to set its 2% inflation target, rose
to 3.5% in March from 2.8% the month before, while underlying "core"
inflation that excludes among other things the recent swings in energy prices,
rose to 3.2% from 3% in February.
New consumer price data
to be released next week for April is expected to show further acceleration.
Jobs data for April
scheduled for release this Friday, meanwhile, is expected to show a steady
unemployment rate of 4.3% according to the median forecast of economists polled
by Reuters, consistent with what Musalem said is current stability in the job
market.
The Fed is charged by
Congress with maintaining maximum employment consistent with stable
prices.
"The labor market
seems like it has stabilized," Musalem said. "We're committed to
bringing inflation back down towards 2% and that is the best thing that we can
do for healthy growth."
Fed's Musalem: Risks have shifted towards higher inflation
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
High
speed trains spin wind turbines in first UK trial
6 May 2026
For centuries, the gusts of air produced as Britain's trains rush around the country have been wasted – until now.
In a UK first, rail company
LNER have installed three experimental wind turbines alongside the track, to harness the turbulent airflow blasted out
by passing high-speed trains and turn it into electricity.
The turbines, named
"Windiana Jones", "Sir Spins-a-lot", and "AC
Breezy", have been installed alongside the East Coast Main Line at Hitachi
Rail’s Craigentinny depot in Edinburgh by LNER and clean energy infrastructure
firm Treeva.
The six‑foot‑tall devices,
made from "upcycled materials", are the first turbines to be operated
next to a UK main line. They require no grid connection, and their design
allows for easy deployment on hitherto unused railway land close to the tracks.
According to LNER, the trial
could pave the way for a roll out of such technology "across Britain's
rail network".
At this stage the clean
energy the turbines produce will be harnessed, measured, and used to power a
range of devices, enabling a better understanding of the potential
power-generation opportunities available to rail operators.
"A single turbine can
generate enough energy to power a third of a small station's lighting needs,
four CCTV cameras, or run two passenger information screens," LNER said.
"Five turbines have the capacity to reduce emissions of more than 12,000
kilograms of CO2 each year – the equivalent of planting 500 trees."
The project is the product of the Future Labs rail
industry innovation scheme, which pairs rail operators with tech start‑ups to
tackle industry challenges. Treeva, a graduate of the programme and winner of
its People’s Choice Award, has been working with LNER to adapt its technology
for rail environments.
“Our goal is to transform the way transport
infrastructure is powered,” said Treeva co‑founder and chief executive Anjali
Devadasan. “By capturing energy created by passing trains, we can turn unused
land into a meaningful source of clean power and enable sustainable systems
that pay for themselves within months.”
LNER’s Mark Haymer called the
trial “a really exciting" step, which could make rail travel "even
greener".
"Developing new ideas
and solutions in any industry is always a challenge, but thanks to a strong
partnership between Treeva, Hitachi, Network Rail, and LNER, we’ve delivered a
successful and safe installation at Craigentinny. We’re looking forward to
seeing how the turbines perform over the next six months," he said.
In 2019, a separate scheme
was unveiled in which a solar array at Aldershot provided some of the power
required for passing trains. The project, called "Riding Sunbeams",
has been a success, prompting major interest in using further solar power on
train lines, with Network Rail announcing last year that they were seeking suppliers.
High speed trains spin wind turbines in first UK trial
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a peace weekend, hopefully. But will Israel go along with President
Trump’s peace attempt or try to sabotage it? Have a great weekend everyone.
If you cannot prove a man wrong, don't panic. You can always
call him names.
President Trump Oscar Wilde
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