Baltic
Dry Index. 2991 Friday
Brent Crude 98.13
Spot Gold 4540 Spot Silver 77.05
US 2 Year Yield 4.13 +0.05 Friday
US Federal Debt. 39.289 trillion
US GDP 32.153 trillion.
May 26, 1940 - Evacuation of Allied troops from Dunkirk begins.
Did Trump just restart his hot war in Iran? He says no, the ceasefire is still in place, but what is the value of a US or Israeli “ceasefire” when neither respect them?
In Trump's case, what is the point of negotiating a trade deal with him, he changes them almost daily with his breakfast cereal, just ask, the EU, China, India, UK, Canada and Mexico among others. Even deals he negotiated himself declaring them with his usual characteristic understatement, supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!
For now, markets must await further developments. We will probably know by the end of the week, but global oil inventories, especially in jet fuel and critical diesel are now getting dangerously low.
U.S. conducts ‘self-defense strikes’ in Iran as
Trump pushes for peace deal
Published Mon, May 25 2026 9:13 PM EDT
U.S. forces conducted “self defense”
strikes in southern Iran early Tuesday, with U.S. Central Command saying the
military action was to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian
forces.“
CENTCOM spokesman Tim Hawkins said targets included missile launch sites and
Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines
“U.S. Central Command continues to defend
our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins added.
The action comes as U.S. President Donald
Trump said Monday stateside that the talks with Iran were
“proceeding nicely.” However, he warned that “it will only be a Great Deal for
all or, no Deal at all,” threatening to take things “Back to the Battlefront
and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before.”
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who
is in India, said that the Strait of Hormuz has to be open, “one way or the
other,” referring to U.S. action against Iran, Reuters reported. He added that
the deal with Iran could take a few days. Fox News,
citing senior U.S. officials on Monday said that the Iran deal was “95% there.”
This is not the first instance of military
action since a ceasefire was reached between Washington and Tehran on April 8.
Later that month, U.S. marines seized the Touska, an Iranian cargo ship, and in
May, both sides traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side claiming
the other initiated the attack.
In a separate Truth Social post, the U.S. President
said Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium will be “immediately turned over to
the United States to be brought home and destroyed,” destroyed in Iran or “at
another acceptable location.”
Trump also urged Arab nations to sign
the Abraham
Accords, which would normalize their relations with Israel. However,
Pakistan roundly rejected the proposal, with a
source telling Reuters that the two issues were “not interlinked and
cannot be made so.”
Oil prices were mixed Tuesday morning,
with U.S. West Texas
Intermediate futures down about 5% at $91.87 per barrel, but
international benchmark Brent was
up 2.14% at $98.2.
Chen Lanhee, partner at advisory firm
Brunswick, told CNBC’s “Squawk
Box Asia” that a majority of the American public wants the war to be over.
“It doesn’t matter what Iran does or
doesn’t have, it doesn’t matter what the contours of the deal are. They just
want the war over to bring petrol or gas prices down,” Chen said.
More
U.S.
conducts 'self-defense strikes' in Iran as Trump seeks peace deal
South Korea’s Kospi hits new high amid mixed
trading in Asia
Published Mon, May 25 2026 7:50 PM EDT
South Korea’s Kospi hit a fresh record
Tuesday as trading resumed after a public holiday, with investor sentiment
supported by hopes for a breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran peace talks.
President Donald Trump said Monday
negotiations with Iran were “proceeding nicely,” though he warned that the U.S. could
resume attacks if the talks failed.
Oil prices were mixed after Trump’s
comments. West Texas Intermediate futures for
July fell 5.24% to $91.54 per barrel as of 11:45 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent
futures for July rose 1.80% to $97.87 per barrel.
Signaling the precarious nature of the
Washington-Tehran engagement, the U.S. Central Command conducted “self-defense
strikes” targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay
mines in the south of the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, Tehran appears to be “blinking”
over the Strait of Hormuz, ex-CIA Director David Petraeus told CNBC’s
Lisa Kim at the UBS Asian Investment Conference on Monday.
South Korea’s Kospi rose to a fresh high
of 8,094.90 in early trade, while the small-cap Kosdaq pared gains and was
1.34% higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.32%
amid some profit taking, while the Topix was flat. The Nikkei 225 breached
65,000 for
the first time Monday in holiday-thinned Asia trading. The Bank of
Japan’s Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the timing of a rate hike is still
being considered, as the central bank continues to monitor developments in the
Middle East, according to Reuters.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.38%.
China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.28%, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng reversed
early losses and rose 0.45% following a public holiday on Monday.
India’s Nifty 50 was marginally
lower, while the BSE Sensex was down 0.35%.
S&P 500 futures gained
0.78%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced
1.14%. Dow Jones Industrial
Average futures popped 371 points, or 0.73%.
U.S. stock markets were closed Monday due
to the Memorial Day holiday.
Asia
markets today: Sensex, Kospi, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Iran, Oil
Oil prices mixed as U.S. military strikes against
Iran cloud Middle East peace prospects
Published Mon, May 25 2026 8:43 PM EDT
Oil prices were mixed Tuesday as U.S.
military operations in southern Iran and President Donald Trump’s mixed
messaging on the negotiations between Tehran and Washington kept traders on
edge.
July futures for international
benchmark Brent crude gained
2% to $98.26 a barrel in Asia trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for
July were trading 5.1% lower at $91.73 per barrel.
The U.S. military said it “conducted
self-defense strikes in southern Iran today,” targeting vessels allegedly
trying to deploy mines, as well as missile launch locations. The U.S. Central
Command said the actions were intended “to protect our troops from threats
posed by Iranian forces.”
Complicating peace talks, Trump said in a
social media post Monday that he had encouraged Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan,
Turkey, Egypt and Jordan to join the Abraham
Accords aimed at normalizing Arab nations’ ties with Israel.
Trump also said negotiations with Iran
were “proceeding nicely,” but cautioned that the U.S. could resume military
action if discussions were to collapse. “It will only be a Great Deal for all
or, no Deal at all,” Trump wrote.
Swiss multinational investment bank UBS
said Friday the global oil market was showing mounting signs of strain as
inventories continue to fall amid ongoing disruptions to shipments via the
Strait of Hormuz. Observed global oil inventories dropped by a combined 246
million barrels in March and April, while cumulative production losses could
exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May, the bank said.
The sharp inventory drawdowns suggest the
market remains “strongly undersupplied,” UBS said, pointing to falling on-land
crude and refined product inventories even as oil stored on tankers rose due to
rerouted U.S. exports to Asia.
Oil
prices: traders weigh Iran diplomacy against U.S. military operations
Wall Street Week Ahead
May 24, 2026, 7:22 AM ET
Wall Street heads into a holiday-shortened
week with investors focused on inflation data, a fresh wave of Federal Reserve
commentary, and earnings from the technology sector.
The main macro event will be Thursday’s
core PCE price index report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge -- for now.
Economists expect the core rate to come in at 3.3%, keeping pressure on
policymakers as markets continue to debate the path for rates under new Fed
Chairman Kevin Warsh. A heavy slate of Fed speakers throughout the week,
including John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, and Neel Kashkari, could further
shape expectations.
Earnings reports from Marvell Technology (MRVL), Salesforce (CRM), Costco (COST), Dell
Technologies (DELL), and Snowflake (SNOW) will provide
fresh insight into AI spending, enterprise demand, and the health of consumers.
Dell’s earnings call will be closely watched for commentary on AI
infrastructure trends following Nvidia’s (NVDA) closely followed
results last week.
Investors will also monitor Meta
Platforms’ (META) annual meeting
for updates on AI spending and capital returns, while Nvidia and Applied
Materials (AMAT) executives are
due to appear at investor conferences.
Outside markets, Disney’s (DIS) "Star Wars:
The Mandalorian & Grogu" is expected to dominate the Memorial Day box
office, marking the franchise’s first theatrical release since 2019.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
In other news.
Oil market at ‘tank bottoms’ in Asia, and Europe
isn’t far behind, warns market veteran Jeff Currie
Published Mon, May 25 2026 12:51 AM EDT
Oil markets are nearing minimum operating
levels in Asia, with Europe likely next and the U.S. potentially facing
shortages by July, said veteran market strategist Jeff Currie on Monday,
underscoring the global energy shock due to the Iran war.
Headline global inventory figures can be
misleading as much of the oil stored worldwide cannot be used immediately, said
Currie, Carlyle’s chief strategy officer of energy pathways and co-chairman of
Abaxx Markets.
A large portion of that oil is needed to
keep pipelines and storage systems running safely, leaving only a smaller share
available for the market. Asia is already close to these so-called “minimum
operating levels,” Currie told CNBC on the sidelines of the UBS Wealth
Conference in Singapore.
Global oil markets have been under strain
since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year, after disruptions to
shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply curtailed energy exports from the
Middle East.
“We’ve seen explosive prices on products.
Jet fuel has come down, but diesel has now gone up above jet fuel. So, the
problem here in Singapore continues. It just moved from jet to diesel,” said
Currie.
Europe could begin seeing similar strains
within weeks, as the current relief from U.S. oil flows may prove temporary,
and as the summer driving season starts. “I would say, Asia, you’re there.
Europe, give it about another month, and look for July being a problem in the
U.S.,” Currie said.
“All of the inventories that are drawing
out of the United States out of the U.S. SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] are
being exported into Europe, so the Europeans think they have no problem because
they’re getting all of this oil being imported from the United States, but that
can’t continue on.”
His comments come on the back of recent
warnings by the International Energy Agency that the global oil market could
face a critical supply squeeze during the peak summer consumption period,
especially if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover and inventories continue
falling.
More
Oil market at
'tank bottoms' in Asia, Europe isn't far behind: Jeff Currie
America’s Emergency Oil Reserve Is Shrinking Fast
May 25, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT
America’s oil stockpiles are shrinking
rapidly, with U.S. crude inventories posting consecutive weekly declines,
exports surging and the country drawing down from its emergency supplies to
offset the impact of the war with Iran on global energy
markets.
According to recently released figures
from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), total crude inventories
fell by 17.8 million barrels for the week ending May 15. The record drop
follows several weeks of similarly steep declines that have brought total
stocks (including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) to their lowest
level in almost a year.
As analysts told Newsweek, the
declines are eroding a critical safety buffer designed to protect the U.S.—and
the prices consumers pay at the bump—during major supply shocks, and will offer
the country less flexibility to respond if conditions deteriorate further.
Since the beginning of the war on February
28, the closure of the Hormuz Strait—through which around one-fifth of the
world’s oil previously passed—has pushed global oil prices to
multi-year highs and led to what the director of the International Energy
Agency (IEA) has called the “largest energy crisis in history.”
And in the U.S., drivers are facing
significantly higher costs, with gas prices having
risen around 50 percent to an average over $4.50 per gallon, and other
downstream products like jet fuel facing comparable spikes. And experts believe
the drawdown of U.S. inventories could put further
upward pressure on prices going into the summer season.
Where Is America’s Oil Going?
America’s oil inventories increased
gradually during the first year of President Donald Trump’s second
term, in line with the inaugural pledge to “fill our strategic reserves up
again right to the top.”
However, according to the EIA’s latest
Petroleum Status report, consecutive weekly drops have pulled stockpiles back
down to June 2025 levels.
At 445 million barrels, excluding those in
its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the agency said that U.S. crude oil
inventories are around 2 percent below the five-year average for this time of
the year. Distillate inventories—including petroleum products such as diesel fuel and heating
oil—have dropped even further below their typical levels.
More
America’s
emergency oil reserve is shrinking fast - Newsweek
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Macroeconomics, even
with all of our computers and with all of our information - is not an exact
science and is incapable of being an exact science.
Paul Samuelson
Food staple prices set to remain
more expensive in long term – report
Tue, 26 May 2026 at 12:01 am BST
Household food staples like bread
and pasta are set to remain more expensive in the long term as a result of the
Middle East crisis and El Nino weather pattern, a report suggests.
Food price rises leading on from
“major shocks” tend to come down only slowly and partially afterwards, leaving
households facing a higher grocery bill long after the original crisis has
eased, according to analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit
(ECIU).
On average, shelf prices fall just 1% of the original rise after six months, 5% after a year and 7% after two years, the think tank found.
The report, based on more than 30
years of UK data, suggests that this “rocket and feathers” effect, where food
prices “shoot up like rockets but drift down like feathers”, helps explain why
food prices remain far above pre-pandemic levels even after some of the shocks
that drove them have eased.
ECIU food and farming analyst Chris
Jaccarini said: “Shoppers feeling that prices are on a never-ending escalator
upwards is borne out by the data.
“War and extreme weather are
increasingly pushing up the cost of the weekly shop with the latest conflict in
the Middle East driving up the price of oil, gas and fertiliser used to grow,
ship and process food.
“In England, we’ve had three of the
worst harvests on record in the past five years and next year is shaping up to
be the hottest globally.
----Henry Dimbleby, former lead of
the government’s National Food Strategy, said: “Food inflation has been brutal
– and it will keep biting unless we tackle the underlying causes.
“That’s because our food system is
tightly tied to energy, fertiliser and transport costs – and we’ve built too
little resilience into supply chains and production.
----A previous report by the think
tank suggests that UK food prices are on track to be 50% higher by November
compared to levels at the start of the cost-of-living crisis in mid-2021.
The “grim milestone” would mean that
the price growth seen in the nearly 20 years prior to the crisis would be
achieved in just over five years, almost quadrupling the pace of food
inflation.
The ECIU said warmer El Nino
temperatures tended to particularly affect cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar,
with wider risks for other products linked to the tropics such as bananas, tea,
coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.
More
Food staple prices set to remain more expensive in long term – report - Yahoo News UK
The world is heading toward a
financial crisis – the state of US politics has left us ill-prepared
Eduardo Porter Mon
25 May 2026 11.00 BST
Trump’s second term has revealed
that Washington’s policy response to such a crisis will be misguided and full
of chaos
Mon 25 May 2026 11.00 BST
A bona fide financial crisis has not
broken out since the US housing meltdown of 2007. Even the Covid pandemic and
subsequent upsurge in inflation didn’t lead to financial upheaval. The jitters
produced by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 were soon forgotten.
Given this stability, it might take
some effort to convince financial markets that another big one is around the
corner. But it is. Financial markets and their regulating governments may
believe they have acquired immunity, but the world is careening toward a moment
of financial upheaval that could well dwarf the damage caused by the last one.
What’s most scary about this
approaching moment is not the specific nature of the crisis, but the
incompetence with which it will be handled.
Current US politics practically
guarantee that Washington’s policy response will be misguided, steered by
Donald Trump’s incontinent appetites and animosities. In a world where mistrust
has strangled space for collective action, damages are likely to be compounded
by similarly blinkered responses around the globe. As Maurice Obstfeld, former
chief economist at the International Monetary Fund noted: “The political
fundamentals are really bad.”
We’ll never know exactly when and
how a crisis will hit. But one can envisage plausible pathways. Perhaps a
financial bubble pops: stocks buoyed up by the current euphoria over the
prospects of artificial intelligence could be downgraded sharply in light of
disappointing returns, sending the stock market tumbling, shrinking consumer
spending and damaging balance sheets of companies that have piled into the AI
dream, as well as their financiers.
The largest risk, at this moment,
revolves around the federal government’s accumulation of debt, now in excess
of 120% of the nation’s gross domestic product, a near unprecedented
level. It is likely to keep on growing at a fast clip given massive built in
budget deficits for the next decade.
More
Charting the global economy: Factory activity sags
on inflation
24 May 2026
The global economy is showing signs of
wearing down with inflation pressures persisting during the third month of a
war-induced energy crunch. Factory activity as measured by S&P Global
either slowed or even contracted across the board on all indexes released
Thursday, apart from the UK and US.
Meanwhile, inflation concerns have driven
long-term yields for Group of Seven sovereign bonds to a two-decade high this
week.
Here are some of the charts that appeared
on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy,
markets and geopolitics:
World
131288340
Surveys of purchasing managers from
Australia to the Europe pointed to an intensifying ordeal for manufacturing and
services companies in May. As with April, the worst impact was seen in the euro
zone, with plummeting gauges in France delivering the biggest surprise.
Manufacturing there and in the region’s biggest economy, Germany, has now just
succumbed to a phase of shrinking activity.
131288342
One inflation spike in the 2020s might be
an accident, the world’s biggest bond markets seem to have decided, but two
looks like an alarming new trend. The Iran war is inflicting another wave of
price hikes on a global economy that’s barely recovered from the last one. As
all the economic damage mounts, it’s starting to rattle the safest haven in
world finance: the $50 trillion-plus market for Group of Seven sovereign bonds,
where long-term yields hit a two-decade high this week.
131288353
In addition to Iceland, Indonesia’s
central bank delivered a larger-than-expected hike in interest rates, while
Mauritius also tightened policy. Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana, Jamaica and Paraguay
kept rates unchanged.
131288366
A benchmark Asia rice price rose to the
highest in more than a year, as worries loom over harvests across the region.
The US Department of Agriculture forecast global rice production in the 2026-27
season to decline for the first time in 11 years.
Asia
131288384
Japan’s banks are grappling with a problem
that was unthinkable a few years ago. Loans are growing faster than deposits.
The country is seeing an explosion of borrowing as businesses boost capital
investment and buyout deals get bigger.
131288387
Three of Asia’s most vulnerable economies
are showing rising strains as their central banks come under pressure to
tighten policy even as the economic hit from the Iran-war oil shock deepens.
Indonesia, the Philippines and India are already grappling with capital
outflows and free-falling currencies as Middle East tensions hurt consumers and
companies alike. Now, global bond ructions are piling on further pressure.
131288394
China’s growth slowed across the board in
April with investment resuming declines, calling into question the government’s
reluctance to add stimulus to the economy as a global energy crisis hits
factories and consumers across the world. Official data on Monday painted a
picture of an economy where booming exports no longer offset deteriorating
consumption at home.
Europe
131288417
UK inflation fell to its lowest rate in
more than a year, prompting traders to bet on fewer Bank of England
interest-rate hikes even though economists expect price pressures to return.
The consumer prices index rose 2.8% in the year to April, down from 3.3% the
previous month, reflecting more favorable annual comparisons and government
support with bills.
131288423
Switzerland’s economy grew faster than
anticipated in the first quarter, weathering a spike in energy prices and a
strengthening franc that each took effect at the outbreak of the Iran war.
Gross domestic product adjusted for large sport events rose 0.5% from the
previous three months, according to a preliminary estimate.
US
131288427
Consumer sentiment fell in May to a record
low and long-term inflation expectations worsened notably due to the Iran war.
131288435
Housing starts declined in April as
construction of single-family homes dropped by the most in nearly a year,
suggesting builders are growing cautious amid higher mortgage rates.
More
Charting the
global economy: Factory activity sags on inflation
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
EasyJet diverts London flight after passenger alerts crew to power
bank in luggage
Michael Howie Sat, 23 May 2026 at 7:05 pm BST
A London-bound easyJet flight was
diverted to Rome after
concerns were raised about a power bank charging in a passengers bag.
The landing was made as a “precaution” after a passenger alerted
crew members to the device that was in someone's luggage.
Flight EZY2618 took off from Hurghada in Egypt on Tuesday evening
and was due to land at Luton Airport in
the early hours of Wednesday.
But the flight was diverted to Rome Fiumicino and rescheduled to
operate the following morning.
A spokesperson told Sky News: “The captain took the decision to
divert as a precaution in line with safety regulations.
“The aircraft landed safely and passengers disembarked routinely
and we provided hotel accommodation and meals where available.
“As some customers remained in the airport, they were provided
with refreshments.
“The safety of its passengers and crew is easyJet's highest
priority and easyJet operates its fleet of aircraft in strict compliance with
all manufacturers' guidelines.
“We would like to apologise to all passengers for any
inconvenience caused by the diversion and subsequent delay.”
EasyJet diverts
London flight after passenger alerts crew to power bank in luggage - Yahoo News
UK
Solid-state battery power banks are here – and they could change
everything about safety
25 May 2026
Power banks are an indispensable tool for many people, whether
you're using
the portable battery to inflate your tires or charge your
phone after a lengthy session of playing "Pokémon Go." The problem is
that most modern power banks run on lithium-ion technology, which can burst
into flames if not managed properly — just look at the recent
Veektomx VT103 recall. The good news here is that companies such as SolidSafe and Kuxia
have started rolling out solid-state battery power banks.
Unlike traditional rechargeable batteries, which rely on liquid
and gel electrolytes to transfer electrons between electrodes, solid-state
batteries utilize a solid matrix consisting of composite compounds, hence their
name. These materials can include ceramics, sulfides and polymers that are
significantly less flammable than traditional lithium-ion electrolyte gels.
Plus, they are less likely to swell, which means solid-state batteries last
longer, are less
likely to fail, and, most importantly, they should be a much safer form of
battery for public use.
The upsides don't end with just safety concerns. Solid-state
batteries charge faster than lithium-ion alternatives, and since solid-state
power banks have a higher capacity density than normal batteries, manufacturers
can deliver longer charging from smaller devices.
More
Solid-state
battery power banks are here – and they could change everything about safety
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
There is something in people; you might even call it a little
bit of a gambling instinct… I tell people investing should be dull. It
shouldn't be exciting. Investing should be more like watching paint dry or
watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.
Paul Samuelson
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