Baltic
Dry Index. 3151 -44 Brent
Crude 109.26
Spot
Gold 4540 Spot Silver 77.55
U
S 2 Year Yield 4.09 +0.09
US
Federal Debt. 39.248 trillion
US
GDP 32.123 trillion
May 16, 1862. Belgian-French engineer Étienne Lenoir builds
the first automobile with an internal-combustion engine.
Don’t
look now but with the Netanyahu/Trump six day war entering day 77, a harsh
reality is returning to the global economy.
After
a mostly meaningless two day tour of Beijing, President Trump returns to Washington
no closer to ending his folly in the Persian Gulf.
But
his “six day war” is now not just hitting people in the Philippines, Pakistan,
India, Thailand, Indonesia and much of land locked Africa, it’s starting to
impact working people across the G-7.
With
food price inflation still to come by the autumn of 2026, voters across the G-7
are likely to be very stressed out and angry in the months ahead.
If
2026 turns into a modern version of 1929, as I think it will, be prepared for a
very ugly ending to 2026 and very difficult 2027 and 2028.
Look
away from long bond yields and oil prices now.
Dow
loses more than 500 points Friday as tech slumps and yields spike: Live updates
Updated
Fri, May 15 2026 4:36 PM EDT
Stocks
fell on Friday, bogged down by losses in technology stocks and a rise in U.S.
Treasury yields, after a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping ended and left
traders worried about no major policy breakthroughs.
The S&P 500 shed 1.24%
to end at 7,408.50, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped
1.54% to 26,225.14. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average was
down 537.29 points, or 1.07%, and closed at 49,526.17.
Investors
took profits in tech after the group saw sharp gains recently. Notably, Intel retreated more than 6%,
while Advanced Micro
Devices and Micron Technology lost 5.7%
and 6.6%, respectively. Nvidia dropped
4.4%, while Cerebras Systems —
which surged 68%
Thursday after
it began trading on the Nasdaq — shed 10%.
“The
group has witnessed an extremely unsustainable move in recent
weeks and remains vulnerable to profit taking regardless of the
headlines,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.
Microsoft was an
exception, however. The stock was 3% higher after Bill Ackman said Friday that
Pershing Square has built a position in the name.
Treasury
yields jumped, pressuring
stocks, with the 30-year rate topping 5.1%. A series of reports this week
showed inflation was revving back up as oil prices remain elevated from the
Middle East conflict. Higher rates could hit the high growth stocks the
hardest.
Oil
prices traded higher
Friday.
U.S. West Texas
Intermediate futures rose
4.2% to settle at $105.42 per barrel, while international Brent futures settled up
3.35% to $109.26. That’s after Trump told Fox News that he is “not going to be
much more patient” with Iran, adding that “they should make a deal.”
Investors
were disappointed following the conclusion of the summit between Trump and Xi,
as no major deals have been announced. The two agreed that the Strait of Hormuz
must remain open, according to a U.S. readout that was shared by a White House
official. But “the few headlines that did come out of the summit (like
the Boeing orders) were
underwhelming,” Crisafulli wrote.
Boeing
shares extended their losses Friday, moving lower by 3.8% following a nearly 5%
drop in the previous session, as investors were let down by Trump saying that
China has agreed to buy 200
Boeing jets —
just 50 more than the company had previously anticipated.
Thursday
marked a winning session for the indexes. The Dow reclaimed the 50,000 level,
and the S&P 500 closed above 7,500 for the first time.
Stocks
have been on a record-breaking tear on a renewed fervor around artificial
intelligence. While Argent Capital Management’s Jed Ellerbroek believes
sentiment among investors “remains very optimistic overall,” a peek under the
hood is showing that the broader market is lagging the largest tech companies,
a divergence that is increasingly worrying some investors as it suggests a
fragile rally.
“It
doesn’t feel right to say that tech is just going to lead forever,” the
portfolio manager said, noting that the “HALO” trade earlier this
year saw tech stocks “shunned” in support of those in sectors such as consumer
staples and materials. “One thing kind of popping up and driving the market is
inherently more risky than if there were several things.”
Stock market news
for May 15, 2026
Global
Bond Markets Plummet Over War Shock
May
15, 2026 at 11:17 PM GMT+1
Government
bond markets fell
all over the world,
sending yields surging from Japan to the US on intensifying fears that the Iran
war-driven price shock will force central banks to raise interest rates to
contain the impact.
The
selloff came as crude oil prices climbed and the US-Chinese summit failed to
deliver any breakthroughs toward ending the conflict. That’s compounding
worries sparked
by back-to-back US government reports that revealed a sharp rise in consumer
and wholesale prices, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve and other
central banks will need to shift to tightening monetary policy.
“Markets
are starting to price the Fed having to work harder to tamp down inflation,”
said Ed Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
What
You Need to Know Today
China
called for a rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a goal it shares
with the US, though there was
no sign of a breakthrough between the superpowers on how to achieve that
after President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing.
But
there was a sign of progress and a potential US concession in its effort to
extricate itself from the war. Among the shifting justifications offered by the
US and Israel for attacking Iran amid negotiations over its nuclear program was
making sure it doesn’t have one.
In
recent attempts to end the conflict, Iran insisted negotiations over its
nuclear program occur at a later date, after the war is resolved, while the
Trump administration balked. But on Friday, the US appeared to put talks about
Tehran’s stockpile
of highly enriched uranium on the back burner.
Global Bond
Markets Plummet Over War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Treasury
Buyers Get 5% Long Bond For First Time Since 2007
May
13, 2026 • Elizabeth Stanton
Investors
snagged 5% yields on 30-year Treasurys for the first time since 2007, as
surging energy prices push inflation—and expectations for more of it—higher.
A
$25 billion auction of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday was awarded at 5.046%
based on the yields that bidders said they were willing to accept. The result,
which was slightly above the level seen in trading immediately before the
auction, showcased middling demand as U.S. government yields reach their
highest levels in nearly a year.
Sales
of three- and 10-year Treasurys earlier in the week also drew less demand than
expected.
Auction
bidders are demanding higher fixed rates as compensation for the risk that
inflation—stoked by rising energy prices since the U.S. attacked Iran in late
February, choking off Middle-East oil supply—will accelerate further. The oil
shock has driven broad inflation gauges including the U.S. consumer and
producer price indexes higher, and lifted market-based inflation expectations.
“I
would expect at 5% yields to see investor demand emerge,” said Steven Zeng, an
interest-rate strategist at Deutsche Bank. “It’s typically where 30-year
Treasurys become more attractive for pension funds and other liability-driven
investors.”
However,
that’s contingent on inflation not compelling the Federal Reserve to raise
interest rates, as futures markets have begun to anticipate, Zeng said.
More
Treasury Buyers
Get 5% Long Bond For First Time Since 2007
Traders
now see next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge
Published
Fri, May 15 2026 1:40 PM EDT Updated Fri, May 15 2026 2:55 PM EDT
Markets
for the first time in the current cycle now think the Federal Reserve’s next move will
be an interest rate hike.
Following
a week of surprisingly high inflation readings, traders in the fed funds
futures market are pricing in an increase as soon as December, with a much
higher certainty into the early part of 2027, according to the CME
Group’s FedWatch tool.
A
December hike has a nearly 51% probability, while a move higher by January
carries about a 60% probability with March coming in at better than 71%,
according to the measure, which uses prices on 30-day federal funds futures
contracts to gauge probabilities.
The
move comes near the close of a week where both consumer and
wholesale inflation posted
multiyear highs. Import and export prices also were at levels not seen since
the last inflation spike, a period that prompted aggressive Fed rate hikes that
started with four consecutive moves in three-quarter percentage point
increments in 2022.
Former
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh takes over
the helm of the Fed as of Friday and has
indicated he thinks the central bank actually can lower rates in the current
environment. At the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, three members
dissented from
a vote to hold benchmark rates steady as they objected to
language hinting
that the next move would be a cut.
Economists
participating in the Survey of Professional Forecasters think second-quarter
inflation will
top out at 6%, a huge boost from the last estimate, according to a release on
Friday.
Traders now see
next Fed interest rate move as a hike following inflation surge
Oil
Prices Climb on Fears of Broader Energy Crunch
Hopes
for an end to the war in Iran faded after President Trump failed to secure a
commitment from China to help persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
May
15, 2026
Oil
prices jumped, stocks tumbled and bond yields spiked as the markets contended
with persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East and the absence of
meaningful breakthroughs at the summit in Beijing between
President Trump and China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
The
leaders of the world’s two biggest economies emphasized stability on Friday as
their high-stakes talks ended. Mr. Trump said he had not asked Mr. Xi to
pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz because “I don’t need favors.”
The
strait, a narrow waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil, has
remained effectively closed since the United States and Israel went to war with
Iran in late February.
Oil
prices climbed again.
- The price of
Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped more than 3 percent on
Friday, to $109.26 a barrel. Oil prices have climbed 50 percent since war
broke out in the Middle East.
- West Texas
Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose over 4 percent to roughly $105.42 a
barrel.
Stocks
tumbled as tech rally faded.
- The S&P
500 fell 1.2 percent on Friday. A strong rally in tech shares in recent
weeks had sent the index to record highs, and it was still able to eek out
a small gain this week. The S&P 500 has now risen for seven straight
weeks, its longest run since the end of 2023.
- In Asia,
stocks fell broadly, led by a sell off in South Korea, where the benchmark
Kospi index tumbled more than 6 percent. The Nikkei 225 in Japan and the
Hang Seng in Hong Kong both fell nearly 2 percent.
- The selling
spread to markets in Europe. The Stoxx 600, a broad European index,
declined 1.5 percent. The FTSE 100 in Britain fell 1.7 percent. The DAX in
Germany dropped more than 2 percent.
Bonds
had a bad day.
- The 10-year
U.S. Treasury yield, which underpins borrowing rates from consumer
mortgages to business loans, jumped above 4.5 percent, its highest level
in a year. It has risen more than half a percentage point since the start
of the war in Iran, and roughly half of that increase is attributable to
rising inflation expectations, based on prices in inflation-protected
government securities.
Gas
prices remained elevated.
- The average
price of a gallon of regular gas held steady at $4.53 on Friday, according
to the AAA motor club. Gas prices are up 52 percent since the war began.
- Gas prices
typically lag behind changes in oil prices by a few days.
- The average
price of a gallon of diesel fuel fell a penny to $5.66, 50 percent higher
than when the war started.
What
they are saying: Expect a “protracted energy shock.”
- Markets have
lost momentum because Mr. Trump has said the United States does not need
the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened, analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a
research note.
- Mr. Trump’s
comments have added to investors’ fears that the waterway will remain
blocked for some time, which would lead to a “more protracted energy
shock,” they added.
Oil Prices Rise as
Trump-Xi Summit Yields No Clear Breakthroughs on Iran War - The New York Times
Starbucks
to lay off 300 U.S. employees, shutter some regional support offices
Published
Fri, May 15 2026 9:03 AM EDT
Starbucks on Friday
announced another round of corporate layoffs and said it plans to shutter some
regional support offices as part of its ongoing turnaround.
The
company said it will cut 300 U.S. jobs, adding it has started a review of its
international corporate workforce. The layoffs do not affect its coffeehouse
employees.
The
combined severance costs and reassessment of its office space will result in
restructuring charges of $400 million, the coffee chain said. Starbucks expects
to record $280 million in noncash charges related to the impairment of
long-lived assets and $120 million in cash charges tied to the job cuts.
“We
are taking further action under the Back to Starbucks strategy, building on our
strong business momentum and working to return the company to durable,
profitable growth,” a Starbucks spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC.
“Leaders have taken a hard look at their respective functions to further
sharpen focus, prioritize work, reduce complexity, and lower costs.”
Friday’s
announcement marks Starbucks’ third round of layoffs since CEO Brian Niccol
took the helm. In February 2025, Niccol said that the
company would cut 1,100 jobs and not fill several hundred other open positions.
Seven months later, the company announced another 900 job losses for its
nonretail workers as part of a $1 billion
restructuring plan.
Starbucks
had 19,000 U.S. nonretail workers and 5,000 international employees working in
regional support operations roles as of Sept. 28, 2025, according to a
regulatory filing.
During
Niccol’s tenure, the company has embarked on an expensive — and fruitful —
turnaround of its U.S. business.
More
Starbucks to lay
off 300 U.S. employees, close some regional offices
In
other news, World Cup gloom?
Hotel owners expected a World Cup boom - so far it
hasn't happened
15 May 2026
Walking the streets of Kansas City,
Houston, Miami and New York it is hard not to notice a World Cup is coming.
Billboards abound, there are signs outside
bars and stores are churning out tournament-themed merchandise.
But for hoteliers checking their booking
systems, the buzz is more of a murmur.
The industry body says most hotels in
World Cup host cities are seeing bookings lower than this time last year, and
those who spoke to the BBC said they were underwhelmed so far.
"We were sold this expectation the
World Cup would be a big phenomenon, people have been talking about it for
years," said Deidre Mathis, who owns the Wanderstay Boutique Hotel in
Houston, Texas.
"So when we looked at our calendar
and saw in February, March and April that we still weren't sold out [for the
tournament] - and it is not just us in Houston, but it's all over - we were
left sitting here just very confused," she told the BBC.
The Wanderstay is a mile on foot from the
Houston fan zone and a short drive from the stadium hosting Houston's matches.
It is currently at 45% capacity for the period of the tournament, Mathis told
the BBC, compared with 70% for the same time last year.
Mathis blamed the "political
climate" during US President Donald Trump's second term in office, in
particular immigration raids carried out
by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents in cities across the
country.
She also pointed to the rising cost of
living in the wake of the US-Israel war in Iran, as well as the
"phenomenally" expensive tickets to World Cup matches.
Even Trump, an enthusiastic supporter of
both the World Cup and Fifa president Gianni Infantino, has said he "wouldn't pay it
either"
when asked about the prices. Tickets for sale for the final at New Jersey's
MetLife Stadium were officially offered at up to $32,970 (£24,540), while
resale tickets have been listed for more than $2m.
"So I think it's a bunch of things,
all combined into one," Mathis said. "But it is just so unfortunate,
and I am hoping that in the next four weeks, things can be turned around."
Mathis urged Fifa to drop the ticket
prices, as well as calling for the US government to expedite visa applications
for fans hoping to attend.
The American Hotel and Lodging Association
(AHLA), which represents tens of thousands of clients from major hotel chains
to independent B&Bs, found eight in 10 hotels in host cities are seeing
lower demand than expected, warning the tournament has not translated into
strong bookings.
In an AHLA survey, many described the
tournament as a "non-event" while a majority said bookings are
tracking below levels seen in a typical summer.
AHLA president and chief executive Rosanna
Maietta told the BBC the war in Iran was partly to blame. But she said some
fans may be waiting for certainty over where their team will be playing before
booking accommodation.
By contrast, Airbnb has said the World Cup
is to be "the biggest hosting event" in its history.
More
Hotel owners expected a World Cup
boom - so far it hasn't happened - BBC News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trouble
ahead for the weaponised dollar? Approx. 5 minutes.
The US Bond Market Has Never Seen This Before
The US Bond Market Has Never Seen This Before
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Scientists develop near-invisible solar cells that could turn
windows into power generators
14 May 2026
Imagine a car whose windows and sunroof
can help top up its battery while parked under the sun, or a pair of smart
glasses whose lenses can harvest light to power built-in electronics.
Such applications could become more
feasible with a new type of ultrathin transparent solar cell developed by
scientists from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore).
Led by Associate Professor Annalisa
Bruno, the NTU researchers created perovskite solar cells that are about 10,000
times thinner than a strand of human hair and around 50 times thinner than
conventional perovskite solar cells.
Despite their thinness, the devices
achieved some of the highest power conversion efficiencies reported for
ultrathin perovskite solar cells to date.
Published in the journal ACS
Energy Letters, their findings could pave the way for solar cells
that can be integrated into buildings, vehicles and wearable devices without
significantly changing their appearance.
Because the new solar cells are
semi-transparent and color-neutral, they could potentially be incorporated into
windows and façades without significantly changing how a building looks.
"The built environment accounts for
roughly 40% of global energy consumption, so technologies that seamlessly
convert buildings' surfaces into power-generating assets are gaining
urgency," said Assoc Prof Bruno, who is from NTU's School of Physical and
Mathematical Sciences and School of Materials Science and Engineering.
"Our perovskite solar cells offer
distinct advantages as they can be manufactured using simple processes at
relatively low temperatures. They can also be tuned to absorb specific
wavelengths while remaining transparent, and could potentially be scaled over
large areas, reducing their carbon footprint," added Prof Bruno, who is
also Cluster Director, Renewables & Low-Carbon Solutions and Energy
Storage, Energy Research Institute at NTU.
Unlike conventional silicon solar cells,
these perovskite-based devices are capable of generating electricity even under
indirect sunlight and diffuse light conditions. This makes it particularly
suited for Singapore's urban environment, where vertical building surfaces and
frequent cloud cover often limit direct solar exposure.
As an example, if the technology were
scaled up while maintaining similar performance, large glass façades could be
transformed into active surfaces for solar power generation.
Preliminary estimates suggest that a
deployment across a major glass-fronted building, such as an office tower at
Raffles Place or Marina Bay, could theoretically generate several hundred
megawatt-hours of electricity annually.
Depending on the usable glass area and
building orientation, this level of energy generation would be equivalent to
the annual electricity consumption of about 100 four-room HDB flats.
Manufacturing near-invisible solar cells
Perovskite solar cells are made up of
several layers, including a semiconductor layer that absorbs sunlight and
converts it into electricity.
To make the ultrathin cells, the NTU
team used an industrially compatible method known as thermal evaporation. In this process, source materials are heated in a
vacuum chamber until they evaporate. The vapor then settles on a surface, where
it forms a thin film.
The method allows very thin and uniform
perovskite layers to be deposited over large areas. It also avoids the use of
toxic solvents and helps reduce defects in the solar cells, improving their
ability to convert light into electricity.
By adjusting the process, the
researchers were able to control the thickness of the perovskite layer and
create both opaque and semi-transparent devices.
The team believes this is the first time
ultrathin perovskite solar cells have been made entirely using vacuum-based
processes. This could make the technology more suitable for large-scale
industrial production in the future.
More
Scientists develop near-invisible solar cells that could turn windows
into power generators
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Exponent
Calculator
Enter
values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.
This
weekend’ s music diversion. More Locatelli genius with a violin. Approx. 8 minutes.
Locatelli,
Violin Concerto No.1 in D major, 3rd mov〈The Art of Violin〉Op.3
(Giuliano Carmignola)
Next,
radar demystified. Approx. 15 minutes.
Every
Type of Modern Radar System Explained
Every Type of Modern Radar System Explained
Finally, doing the impossible in maths. Approx. 26 minutes. Warning, watching doing the impossible in maths can seriously impact your mental health.
Epic Circles – Numberphile
Sedition Act of 1918
The Sedition Act of
1918 (Pub.
L. 65–150,
40 Stat. 553, enacted May 16,
1918) was an Act of the United States Congress that
extended the Espionage Act of 1917 to
cover a broader range of offenses, notably speech and the expression of opinion that
cast the government or the war effort in a negative light or interfered with
the sale of government bonds.[1]
It forbade the use of
"disloyal, profane, scurrilous, or abusive language" about the United States government, its flag, or its armed forces or that caused
others to view the American government or its institutions with contempt. Those
convicted under the act generally received sentences of imprisonment for five
to 20 years
Sedition Act of
1918 - Wikipedia
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