Baltic
Dry Index. 2730 +44 Brent Crude 113.09
Spot Gold 4539 Spot Silver 73.18
US 2 Year Yield 3.95 +0.07
US Federal Debt. 39.202 trillion
US GDP 32.089 trillion.
Remember everything is right until it's wrong. You'll know when it's wrong.
Ernest Hemingway
Has the Iran war restarted? Though President Trump claims it’s over, it doesn’t look that way following yesterday’s claims and counter claims.
By the end of today we should know, as should the stock casinos.
If war, get ready for $150 dollar oil, and massive supply chain destruction.
If “peace,” for how long and what kind of “peace?”
Look away from those rising US interest rates now.
Shares slide, oil prices elevated as U.S.-Iran
truce prospects dim
Published Mon, May 4 2026 10:54 PM EDT
Stocks in Asia slid on Tuesday
while oil prices eased but remained well above $100 a barrel, as
the U.S. and Iran continue to work towards a truce while at
the same time trading blows over the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders also had their eyes on the
yen JPY= after the Japanese currency briefly jumped in the
previous session, stoking speculation of another round of intervention
from Tokyo.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.3%. Shares in Australia fell
0.4% in thinned Asia trade, while markets in Japan and South Korea were closed
for a holiday.
Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures edged
down about 0.1% each, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost
0.2% and FTSE futures fell
0.75%.
The U.S.
and Iran launched new attacks in the Gulf on Monday as they
wrestled for control over the Strait of Hormuz with dueling maritime blockades,
not long after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a new effort to get
stranded tankers and other ships through the vital energy-trade chokepoint.
Maersk said the Alliance
Fairfax, a U.S.-flagged vehicle carrier operated by its Farrell Lines
subsidiary, exited the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz accompanied by
U.S. military assets on Monday.
Still, the renewed hostilities jolted
markets and served as a stark reminder that the war in the Middle East was far
from over.
“We started yesterday with high hopes
that operation ‘Project Freedom’ would be, I guess, a success on the
ground, that it was being pitched as more of a humanitarian effort,” said Tony
Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.
“But as we saw, the Iranians weren’t
taking that bait at all... It really signifies that the stalemate remains in
place, it’s been a very shaky start.”
In oil markets, Brent crude
futures LCOc1 fell 0.5% to $113.85 a barrel while U.S.
crude CLc1 slid 1.3% to $105.03, having jumped in the
previous session on heightened worries about supply disruption.
Geopolitics aside, investors were also
bracing for earnings reports this week, with Advanced Micro Devices and Pfizer among those set to
release results later in the day.
Data from S&P Global Market
Intelligence showed 83% of S&P 500 companies that have already reported
have beaten EPS estimates and 78.2% of them have beaten revenue estimates.
“With no signs of slowing down, AI-driven
spending will likely continue to do the heavy lifting for S&P 500 earnings
growth, led by the technology sector,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity
strategist at LPL Financial.
More
Shares
slide, oil prices elevated as U.S.-Iran truce prospects dim
Iran attacks UAE; U.S. says it sank boats in
Strait of Hormuz
Published Mon, May 4 2026 11:21 AM EDT Updated
Mon, May 4 2026 5:42 PM EDT
An already shaky ceasefire between
the United States and Iran appeared to be on the verge of collapse Monday, as
the United Arab Emirates came under attack from Iranian drones and missiles and
the U.S. said it sank Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Donald Trump, in a Fox News interview later Monday, warned Iran that it
will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets U.S. ships that are
protecting commercial vessels transiting the strait.
Trump also said in a Truth Social post
that a South Korean cargo ship had come under fire from Iran in the waterway.
“Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to come and join the mission!” Trump wrote in the post.
Stock
market indices closed sharply lower and oil
prices rose on Monday, as investors’ fears grew that the war’s impact
on the global economy could be exacerbated or prolonged.
The escalation came less than a day after
Trump announced “Project
Freedom,” an attempt by the U.S. to “free” ships that have been stranded as
a result of Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the hostilities, Trump avoided
saying that the ceasefire with Iran — which he announced on April 7 and later
extended unilaterally — had been violated, ABC News journalist Jonathan Karl
said after speaking with the president on the phone.
More
UAE
says Iran launched missile attack despite ceasefire
Iran War May Reignite Over Strait Stalemate
May 4, 2026 at 11:23 PM GMT+1
Iran attacked the United Arab
Emirates on Monday for the first time in almost a month as the weeks-long
stalemate between the US and Iran showed
signs of devolving into conflict again. The UAE said its air
defense systems engaged with 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles and
four drones fired from Iran at different parts of the Gulf country. Alerts in
the UAE came hours after a tanker owned by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. was said
to have been fired upon by Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz. And an oil
terminal part owned by Vitol Group was
said to have been attacked in the port city of Fujairah.
The strikes came as the US military said
it helped two American-flagged ships go
through the strait as part of a new effort announced by President
Donald Trump to open a lane through the waterway. The US said it fought off
attacks from Iranian drones, missiles and armed small boats. While one shipping
company appeared
to confirm the American operation, saying its ship was escorted from
the area, the broader details of the plan remain
unclear. —David
E. Rovella
----Oil prices
surged on the new hostilities in the Gulf area as critical energy
infrastructure and tankers came under attack. Brent futures shot
up 5.8% to settle above $114 a barrel. The global market loses millions of
barrels of oil supplies for every day that the key shipping lane remains
blocked, heightening fears of demand destruction and a global economic
recession.
Equities meanwhile dropped from all-time
highs. And with oil prices not far from a four-year peak, the decline
in Treasuries sent 30-year yields above 5%. Here’s your
markets wrap.
Strait
Stalemate May Reignite War: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Global oil prices top $114 and settle at 4-year
high after Iranian attacks on U.A.E. revive worries of further supply
disruptions
U.A.E. issues a missile-threat alert for
the first time since the U.S. and Iran agreed to a cease-fire in early April
Last Updated: May 4, 2026 at 3:43
p.m. ET First Published: May 4, 2026 at 7:16 a.m. ET
Global oil prices on Monday surged back
above $114 per barrel and settled at its highest level in nearly four years,
after Iran ramped up attacks on energy facilities in United Arab Emirates and
ships in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the worst escalation in Middle East
tensions ever since the U.S.-Iran cease-fire about a month ago.
The United Arab Emirates on Monday issued
a missile-threat warning for the first time since the U.S. and Iran agreed to
the cease-fire in early April, and the Associated Press reported that an Iranian drone
sparked a fire at an oil facility in the U.A.E.’s eastern emirate of Fujairah.
Fujairah is the Emirates’ primary port and
oil-storage facility on the Gulf of Oman and has been used during the Iran war
to ship some oil to avoid going through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains
closed to commercial traffic since early March.
----Investors also weighed conflicting
reports of an Iranian strike on a U.S. warship in the Strait of Hormuz on
Monday morning. In a post on X, an account for Iran’s Fars News Agency said
that two Iranian missiles struck a U.S. Navy ship after it “violated security
protocols for transit and navigation with the intent to pass through the Strait
of Hormuz” and ignored warnings from the Iranian navy.
But U.S. Central Command denied
that report and said “no U.S. Navy ships have been struck. U.S. forces
are enforcing the naval blockade on Iranian ports.”
The latest development came after
President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social over the weekend that the
U.S. would launch a new effort starting Monday called Project Freedom to help
get ships from neutral countries moving through the vital waterway.
Trump also said there had been “very
positive discussions” with Iran, which “could lead to something very positive
for all,” although he didn’t provide details on either development.
More
In commodities news. confusion.
Study Group shines some light on Doctor Copper's
confusion
LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - Where next for
Doctor Copper?
After January's frenzied rush to record
highs, the copper market is now nervously treading water, bobbing to the
ever-changing news flow around the Iran crisis.
The Reuters Iran Briefing newsletter keeps
you informed with the latest developments and analysis of the Iran
war. Sign up here.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is
both bullish and bearish for the copper price.
The Gulf is a major exporter of sulphur and copper
miners using leaching technology need a lot of sulphuric acid. Solvent
extraction and electrowinning accounts for a quarter of global refined metal
output.
But the broader economic fallout from
higher energy prices threatens a slowdown in manufacturing activity and
therefore copper demand. It's a risk that grows with each day the Strait
remains closed.
The Iran crisis accentuates the confused
and confusing play of opposing forces in the copper price.
Supply is problematic. So too is demand.
At $13,000 per metric ton, London Metal Exchange three-month copper is pricing
scarcity. Yet exchange warehouses are full of metal and time-spreads are in
deep contango, signalling abundance.
The latest forecasts from the
International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shed some welcome statistical light on
Doctor Copper's current dilemma.
FINELY BALANCED
Copper's fundamental outlook depends on
which deteriorates faster - supply or demand.
Global mined production grew by just 0.9%
in 2025 relative to 2024 after big production hits in Chile, Indonesia and
the Democratic
Republic of Congo.
The lingering impact of those incidents
has caused the ICSG to revise downwards expected mine production growth this
year to 1.6% from 2.3% when it last met in October.
The ongoing squeeze in the copper
concentrates segment of the market, reflected in historically low smelter
treatment charges, is expected to restrain refined metal production growth to
just 0.4% this year.
So far, so bullish.
But the ICSG also cut its copper usage
forecast for this year to 1.6% from October's 2.1%, citing the Iran crisis,
which is "likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively
impact copper demand".
The Group has flipped its 2026 market
balance assessment from October's anticipated shortfall of 150,000 metric tons
to a small 96,000-ton supply surplus.
Relative to the 29 million tons of copper
that will be used this year, this is a marginal change but one that captures
copper's fine balancing act between simultaneous risks on both supply and
demand sides of the equation.
More
Study Group shines
some light on Doctor Copper's confusion | Reuters
In other news. What could possibly go wrong?
Private credit turns to financial alchemy as an
antidote to ‘peak anxiety’
Published Sat, May 2 2026 9:39 AM EDT
Ghosts of the 2008 financial crisis are
haunting Wall Street as private equity firms are pooling and repackaging
troubled corporate debt in a bid to raise liquidity.
Redemptions from private credit funds have
been spiking on fears of potentially bad loans in application software and
other sectors, driven by the ascent of artificial intelligence and hurt by a
higher-for-longer short-term interest rate regime.
Private equity firms are securitizing
those loans, and combining them with higher quality debt into larger investment
vehicles in order to extend their shelf lives ahead of maturities. They’re also
selling off portions of larger funds to manage exposures.
“This obviously is an attempt to take the
proverbial sow’s ear and turn it into a silk purse,” Westwood Capital cofounder
Dan Alpert told CNBC. “That follows the same pattern that we saw during the
2008 crisis: Let’s see if we can take the remainder of the unleveraged portion
of the private credit loan and package it in securitizations.”
Panelists at a private credit conference
in Nashville earlier this month described the private credit environment as
“one of ‘peak anxiety,’” according to analysts at KBRA, a credit rating agency.
While loan defaults haven’t occurred en
masse, default rates are elevated, multiple ratings agencies say. In the first
quarter, a record number of companies were downgraded two or more levels in
KBRA’s default monitor range, the agency said Thursday.
KBRA chief ratings officer William Cox
told CNBC that securitizations and other efforts to extend debt maturities are
acting to soften any blows in the sector.
“What we’re seeing is that those different
vehicles in the spreading around of the loans, and therefore the risk, [have]
actually been a shock absorber for these relatively elevated – but still
manageable – rates of default,” Cox said.
More
Private credit
turns to financial alchemy as an antidote to 'peak anxiety'
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
How
fiat money fails, gradually then suddenly, with apologies to Earnest Hemingway.
Price of a pint crosses £10 in London for the first time
Bryony Gooch Mon, 4 May 2026 at 6:24 am BST
The cost of a pint has
passed £10 in London as
the price of beer continues to soar.
A number of high-end bars are now charging £10 or
more for draught or bottled beer. Stanley’s rooftop bar in Mayfair is one of
many establishments that has hiked the cost of its beer.
A pint of Moretti or Heineken is sold at £11, while
a half pint is going for £8. Guinness is sold at £10 a pint, according to the
menu for the bar, attached to the Chesterfield hotel.
The cost of bottled beer is even steeper; the
Connaught Grill in Mayfair is charging £12.50 for a 330ml bottle of Noam lager
or Curious IPA.
It comes months after Guinness makers Diageo
revealed draught prices would surge by 5.2 per cent in April as operational
costs continue to rise for the business. Pub owners told the Morning Advertiser that
Diageo seemed “hell-bent on having the first £10 a pint beer.”
London is one of the most expensive places in the
country to buy a pint, with the Morning Advertiser putting the
average price at £6.50, below Oxford at £6.75.
As the £7 pint becomes commonplace in the capital, industry
experts are warning that the government needed
to do more to keep prices affordable.
Ash Corbett-Collins, Camra’s chair, told The Telegraph: “It’s not surprising pint prices are rising
across London and the UK, but our pubs and breweries should not be blamed.
Extreme financial pressures from the Government are forcing publicans to either
raise their prices or consider closing for good.
“The Government must recognise pubs for the
essential wellbeing benefits their community spaces provide, and their
essential contributions to the economy.
“They must recognise increased employer National
Insurance contributions are adding to cost pressures, commit to a fairer
business rates system, lower VAT on food and drink for hospitality businesses
as well as alcohol duties so publicans can keep their doors open and pub-going
becomes affordable again.”
The average pint price in the UK is £4.52,
according to the British Beer and Pub Association, with lager costing £4.82.
Meanwhile, the number of pubs continues to go down across the country.
Pub landlords welcomed the news in January that
the government
planned to U-turn business-rate relief for the hospitality
industry.
Rachel Reeves had previously announced plans to
scale back the business-rate discount that has been in force since the
pandemic, from 75 per cent to 40 per cent.
Price of a
pint crosses £10 in London for the first time - Yahoo News UK
Several UK high street giants set to close down this week - see full
list
3 May 2026
A string of well-known British brands have become
the latest high street casualties this week as they've pulled down the
shutters. Numerous businesses are battling amid a surge of cost increases.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has disclosed
that UK retailers have been hammered with a "£5.6 billion wave of additional
costs" spanning 2025 and 2026. Expenses include a cut in rates relief,
increased wages, fresh packaging levies and the April 2026 surge in property
values.
Additionally, further
rises loom on the horizon as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has
cautioned that the economic impact from the Iran war will "go on".
Regrettably, several shops have vanished from the high street this week as they
took the difficult decision to shut down.
Claire's
In a devastating blow, Claire's shuttered all 154
of its UK outlets this week. Administrators at Kroll confirmed the closures and
revealed that approximately 1,300 staff will lose their jobs as a consequence.
The decision didn't impact Claire's 356
concessions, including numerous branches in Asda stores, and its headquarters.
Nevertheless, the Guardian reports that Claire's might be poised to relaunch
four to 10 shops weekly from June onwards.
Claire's had previously closed 145 outlets, with roughly 1,000 positions
axed, during the earlier administration last year.
More
Several UK high street giants set
to close down this week - see full list
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Three-phase
battery kit offers alternative to diesel generators
03 May 2026
Clayton Power has introduced a 400V
three-phase battery system that can do the job of a large diesel generator.
The E-gen system is designed to sit in
the back of a van or pickup, allowing welders, compressors and other
high-output equipment to be run without the need to have an engine revving
away.
It’s also capable of putting out 230V
and 12V supplies, giving the option of running lower powered gear for extended
periods of time.
Output can be tailored to the task at
hand by daisy chaining the appropriate number of 6kW battery packs together.
These are joined by cables, which are
then hidden behind covers to give a neat, uncluttered finish.
Charging takes about eight hours, so
users need to make sure they have enough capacity for a full day’s work and
then replenish the cells overnight.
For now, Clayton Power is offering the
E-gen as a hire only system, which means users can get them for specific
contracts and, if using them for extended periods of time, need not worry about
any long-term battery degradation.
Prices start at about £400 a month
which, according to the firm, can be less than the monthly fuel bill of running
a large diesel generator day in, day out.
Three-phase battery kit offers alternative to diesel generators - Farmers
Weekly
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
China has installed the world’s largest floating offshore wind
turbine, taking a big step forward in deep-sea renewable energy.
The 16-megawatt turbine, named “Three Gorges Pilot,” was set up
on Saturday more than 43 miles (70 kilometers) off the coast of Yangjiang in
Guangdong Province, according to the project’s developers.
The new system centers on a 16 MW wind turbine supported by a
floating structure. Unlike traditional offshore turbines, this one can work on
a semi-submerged base, allowing it to operate in deeper waters where winds are
stronger.
Interesting Engineering.
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