Baltic
Dry Index. 2964 -41 Brent Crude 104.08
Spot Gold 4528 Spot Silver 76.88
US 2 Year Yield 4.08 +04
US Federal Debt. 39.273 trillion
US GDP 32.141 trillion.
The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.
Murray Rothbard
In the stock casinos, an all in bet on Trump’s folly in the Persian Gulf ending this weekend.
While consumers from Asia to America struggle with Gulf war inflation, the great stock bubble bubbles on to new highs.
But all stock bubbles end badly and this one
will be no different. The rising question now is will its ending collapse the
Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, communist money?
Asia-Pacific markets trade higher as investors
assess U.S.-Iran peace deal diplomacy
Published Thu, May 21 2026 7:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday
as investors assess U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts at reaching a peace deal in
the Middle East.
Tehran
intending to keep its enriched uranium stockpile within the country,
according to a Reuters report, could complicate negotiations with Washington,
as President Donald Trump has
made dismantling Iran’s nuclear program a central objective of his military
action against Tehran.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.36%, while
the Topix added 0.55%. Japan’s core inflation eased more than expected in April
to its lowest level since March 2022, weakening the case for an early rate hike
by the Bank of Japan.
Core inflation — which strips out prices
of fresh food — came in at 1.4%, lower than the 1.7% expected by economists
polled by Reuters and below the 1.8% reading in March.
South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.59%, while
the Kosdaq Index jumped over 5%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up
0.55%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.22%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 added 0.70%.
India’s Nifty 50 as well as the BSE
Sensex were up over 0.4%.
Oil prices rose after declining in the
previous session. July futures for international benchmark, Brent crude, gained
1.46% to $104.08 a barrel in Asia trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for
June advanced 0.93% at $97.25 per barrel.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield,
which has backed off its highs, was last down more than 1 basis point at 4.57%.
The longer-dated 30-year
Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to political risks, was
down 2 basis points to 5.091%.
Moody’s Head of Global Ratings and
Research Philipp Lotter told CNBC that global credit markets are facing
longer-term upward pressure on yield curves and borrowing costs. Governments
are contending with rising spending needs, weaker demographics and major
investment demands, he said.
Lotter pointed to “significant increases
in defense spending requirements,” especially in Europe, as well as the
“billions and billions” needed for AI and data-center expansion globally and in
Asia.
Those forces are creating an “additional
mismatch” between spending and savings, he said, “causing that further
structural imbalance globally.”
Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
to a record close. The blue-chip index gained 276.31 points, or 0.55%, for a
closing record of 50,285.66. The S&P 500 advanced 0.17% to
7,445.72, while the Nasdaq
Composite increased 0.09% to end at 26,293.10.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Brent, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Stock futures rise slightly as S&P 500 looks
toward another winning week: Live updates
Updated Fri, May 22 2026 12:20 AM EDT
Stock futures ticked higher in early
Friday as Wall Street looked set to cap off a winning week despite heightened
volatility.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
0.34%. S&P 500 futures gained
0.34% and Nasdaq 100 futures inched
0.45% higher.
The S&P 500 is up 0.5% week
to date despite increased market swings, putting the benchmark on track for its
eighth straight weekly gain. The Dow has climbed 1.5% this
week and is headed for its third positive week in four. The Nasdaq Composite has added
0.3%, on pace for its seventh weekly advance in the past eight weeks.
Volatility picked up this week as
investors wrestled with a sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed
above 5.19% earlier this week, reaching its highest level since before the
financial crisis, before easing to 5.09% on Thursday.
Oil prices also moved lower as traders
grew more optimistic about a potential resolution to the Middle East
conflict. West Texas
Intermediate crude futures fell nearly 2% to settle at $96.35 a
barrel, while Brent crude declined
more than 2% to close at $102.58.
“Our view on Iran is the same as before: a
deal is much more likely than not, but this is already priced in, and
the conflict will have stagflationary effects for at least the next few
quarters,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.
President Donald Trump is expected to
swear in Kevin Warsh, his pick to lead the Federal Reserve and succeed Jerome
Powell, during
a ceremony on Friday.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Walmart issues worse-than-expected outlook as high
gas prices hit shoppers, shares drop 7%
Published Thu, May 21 2026 12:01 AM EDT Updated
Thu, May 21 20261 2:06 PM EDT
Walmart issued
a worse-than-expected financial outlook on Thursday as it reported fiscal
first-quarter results, raising questions about the health of the U.S. consumer
as high gas prices strain shopper budgets.
The mega retailer stood by its fiscal 2027
outlook, which disappointed investors last quarter when it was issued. The
retailer said it’s expecting adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.75
and $2.85, lower than expectations of $2.91, according to LSEG. Walmart said it
anticipates net sales will rise between 3.5% and 4.5% for the year.
The retailer also issued its outlook for
its current quarter, which came in light of expectations, as well. It expects
adjusted earnings per share will be between 72 cents and 74 cents, missing
expectations of 75 cents. Walmart anticipates net sales will climb 4% to 5%
during the quarter.
The retailer’s shares dropped about 8% in
morning trading.
Walmart’s weaker-than-expected outlook
comes as the largest U.S. retailer and its peers post relatively strong sales
for the first quarter. The company’s revenue rose 7% in the first quarter,
beating estimates, and same-store sales climbed 4.1%, in line with
expectations, as the value player continues to see gains in its e-commerce
business and with higher-income shoppers.
So far this earnings season, other major
companies have also said consumer spending has held up in the face of higher
gas prices and growing worries about the state of the economy. But that
resilience also came amid higher tax returns, which Target said on Wednesday
may have fueled some of the growth it saw during the first quarter.
In an interview with CNBC, Walmart finance
chief John David Rainey also said consumers may feel more strain as the effect
of tax returns goes away in the second quarter.
“I think higher tax returns muted some of
the pressure related to higher fuel prices and as we’re in a period of
time right now where those tax refunds are largely not coming in, I think
consumers are going to feel more of that pressure from higher fuel prices,”
said Rainey. “It’s something that we’re keeping a close eye on, but that
expectation is built into our guidance for the second quarter.”
He said that Walmart’s fiscal
second-quarter guidance for operating income is the best the retailer’s given
in maybe a decade and a half, and came as the company saw a $175 million
headwind from higher fuel prices.
“It’ll probably be larger than that in the
second quarter if fuel prices stay where they are, so we’re absorbing those
prices and still maintaining our guidance, and I feel really good about that,”
said Rainey.
On a call with analysts Thursday, Rainey
made clear the company is still performing well despite macroeconomic
pressures.
“While there are certainly pressures on
the consumer, let me reiterate: our business is strong,” said Rainey. “We are
executing on the important strategic initiatives that are critical to our
future sales and earnings growth. Our delivery speed and capabilities continue
to get faster and reach more customers and members, and our value proposition
of low prices with convenience continues to resonate with customers, and is the
primary reason new customers shop with us.”
More
Walmart
(WMT) earnings Q1 2027
In other news.
Oil market could enter ‘red zone’ by July as
stocks dwindle ahead of summer travel season, IEA chief says
Published Thu, May 21 2026 7:35 AM EDT
Oil markets could soon enter a “red zone”
as global stocks deplete and as demand picks up during the summer travel
season, the head of the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said
the single most important solution to the Iran war energy shock is a full and
unconditional reopening of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
If it fails to reopen and no new oil is
coming online from the Middle East, an ongoing drawdown in global stockpiles
combined with an uptick in demand during the summer travel
season means
oil markets “may be entering the red zone in July or August,” Birol said,
without elaborating further.
His comments came during a Chatham House
session on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and global energy security.
The IEA has previously said the global
market is facing the most severe
disruption in
its history. That’s despite, Birol said, the market having benefitted from
being in the “fortunate” position of entering the crisis with a surplus to help
absorb the shock. These stocks, however, are now eroding, Birol said.
Typically, roughly 20% of the world’s oil
and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping
traffic has virtually halted since U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran
started on Feb. 28.
Oil market could
enter ‘red zone’ by July as stocks dwindle: IEA chief
Wheat farmers brace for worst crop yields in more
than half a century
May 21, 2026
(NewsNation) — America’s
wheat crop is in trouble.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
projected the smallest wheat crop since 1972, and farmers across the plains say
drought, extreme weather and soaring fuel and fertilizer prices are pushing
many to the breaking point.
It could eventually impact the price of
everyday food staples for consumers.
The USDA estimate is about 1.56 billion
bushels, down more than 20% from last year.
Georgia
man ditches car for pink Barbie Dream camper as gas hits $4
In Kansas, one of the country’s top
wheat-producing states, more than half the crop is rated poor or very poor.
For farmers, the financial pressure is
growing. They are producing less crop, while paying more for diesel, fertilizer
and basic operating costs.
Shoppers could feel the squeeze
Experts say if these conditions continue,
consumers could eventually feel it at the grocery store.
Tiny
houses providing alternative during housing crisis, advocate says
Although bread prices do not move
one-for-one with wheat prices, when wheat gets more expensive, bakers and food
companies feel it first. Then, some of that can work its way to the price tag
for shoppers.
The products to watch are the obvious
ones: bread, cereal, pasta, crackers, flour and baked goods.
However, companies have some options
before it becomes a shelf problem. They can rely on existing contracts, draw
from inventories and import more wheat. And for some products, they can use
more corn, oats or rice instead of wheat.
The next thing to watch is the rain. If
the plains stay hot and dry through the growing season, this could shift from a
bad farm year to a much bigger food inflation concern.
Wheat farmers
brace for worst crop yields in more than half a century
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Printing money is merely taxation in another form. Rather than
robbing citizens of their money, government robs their money of its purchasing
power.
Peter Schiff
Top economist sounds alarm on America’s 40% recession risk, warns stocks
are disconnected from reality
Mark Zandi warns of
disconnect between everyday Americans trading beef for chicken and a
tech-fueled stock market bubble
Published May 20, 2026 11:11am EDT
Despite triumphant
headlines from Wall Street, one prominent economic forecaster is sounding the
alarm that the U.S. economy is sitting on a razor's edge.
In a recent interview
with TheStreet, Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi placed the
probability of a U.S. recession within the next
year at 40%, compared to a historical average of about 15%.
"So, 40% is very
elevated, very uncomfortable — it gives you a sense of how close I think things
are to the edge here," he said.
Though his comments come
on the heels of a better-than-expected April jobs report and stocks reaching fresh highs in recent
weeks, Zandi pointed out that real disposable income has stalled year over
year, showing 0% net growth.
"Real disposable
income — that’s after tax, after accounting for inflation — is no higher today
than it was a year ago. So, there’s been no growth in purchasing power, and
that’s going to get worse and start declining," the economist noted, adding
that lower- and middle-class consumers are "living more paycheck to
paycheck."
"You’re gonna have
to trade down," Zandi continued. "You can’t have beef — you gotta
have chicken."
The S&P 500, Nasdaq
and Dow have posted a modest pullback since those fresh highs, which Zandi
attributed to strength in artificial intelligence-related companies. He further explained the divergence between
corporate equity gains and the broader U.S. economy.
"The stock market’s
not the economy. In my 36 years as a professional economist, the stock market’s
never been more disjointed from the economy," he said.
"What’s driving the
stock market train is these big hyperscalers and chip companies," Zandi
added. "Valuations are awfully high… except for perhaps during the
internet bubble, which didn’t end so well."
When it comes to equity
investors banking on political intervention, Zandi said traders are
increasingly betting that President Donald Trump will adjust policy levers to
support the markets or the economy if a correction begins.
"Stock investors are
looking at the president, the president’s looking at the stock market. That
doesn’t feel like a stable… equilibrium — it’s kind of like a hall of
mirrors," he cautioned.
Mark Zandi puts U.S. recession odds at 40%, warns economy is 'on edge' |
Fox Business
Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says AI is the
only thing that's prevented a recession and a market crash
May 19, 2026, 3:51 PM BST
The US economy would have tumbled down a
difficult path were it not for AI, Jeremy
Grantham says.
The GMO founder and investing legend
issued a cautious message on the state of the US economy and markets last week.
Speaking on a recent episode of the Excess Returns podcast, Grantham said he
believed the US probably would have slipped into a downturn and seen a
steep market
crash in
2023 , were it not for the huge investments being poured into AI.
"My guess is that in 2023 we would
have moved into a recession and the
market would have gone down another 25%. And AI headed it off," Grantham
said.
"We're in terra incognita," he
added, referring to the US's "unprecedented" reliance on AI spending
as a percentage of GDP.
The boom in artificial intelligence has
fueled a massive spending
spree among tech giants. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft have
collectively earmarked $725 billion in capex this year, much of which will be
spent on the AI buildout, according to company statements. That amount is
roughly 2% of US GDP in 2025.
GDP growth likely would have approached 0%
in 2023 were it not for AI, Grantham speculated.
AI spending has also acted as a
significant crutch for the stock market, Grantham suggested. He pointed to how
the Magnificent
Seven stocks,
the seven group of tech giants at the heart of the AI trade, were largely
responsible for dragging the S&P 500 out of its
bear market from late 2022 into 2023.
Stocks were already in a partial bubble when the AI
hype hit, Grantham said, referring to the major run-up in the tech sector and
the fervor for meme stocks in 2022.
"We have a bubble forming out of a
bubble that was only halfway completed, only halfway deflated, and then
resuscitated," he said.
Grantham, a longtime bear best known for
calling the dot-com bubble, has warned repeatedly of a crash and a coming
downturn in recent years.
In his 2026 memoir, "The Making of a
Permabear: The Perils of Long-term Investing in a Short-term World,"
Grantham said he believed the AI
bubble would
most likely "at least temporarily deflate."
Speaking on "The Master
Investor" podcast earlier this year, he added that he saw
"painful" consequences stemming from the recent spike in oil, noting
that the US has never seen a sharp surge in crude prices without tipping into a
recession not long after.
Jeremy Grantham:
AI Is the Only Thing That Stopped Recession, Stock Crash - Business Insider
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Another week and yet another battery
fire.
Firefighters respond to fire at Battery Warehouse store in Carroll
County
May 19, 2026
Two firefighters were injured while responding to a fire at the
Battery Warehouse store in Westminster, Maryland, Monday evening, according to
the Carroll County Fire Department.
Firefighters and hazmat teams responded around 7:25 p.m. to the
800 block of Baltimore Boulevard, where smoke was fuming from the building,
officials said.
Fire Chief Michael Robinson said two alarms were called, and more
than 130 responded.
Two Carroll County fire personnel were taken to the hospital with
minor heat-related injuries, according to officials.
Robinson said the Battery Warehouse is a large retail store with
hazardous materials, including lithium batteries.
"We did identify that we had an active fire in a pallet of
batteries," Robinson said. "We identified them as both lead acid
batteries and lithium-ion batteries. Lithium-ion batteries are the most
hazardous, and we believe one of them had a condition known as thermal runaway,
which is a very dangerous condition."
On Tuesday, State Fire Marshal's officials said the fire took
about two hours to bring under control and caused about $5 million to $6
million in losses.
Officials believe the fire started in an interior storage area.
The cause of the fire remains under investigation.
Firefighters
respond to fire at Battery Warehouse store in Carroll County
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and hopefully Trump’s folly
in the Persian Gulf will end and the Strait of Hormuz reopen to shipping before
plunging the global economy into depression. Have a great weekend everyone.
The U.S. dollar is in terminal decline. America is tragically
bankrupt, unable to pay its lenders without printing the dollars to do so, and
enmeshed in an economic depression. The clock is ticking until the dollar faces
a crisis of confidence like every other bubble before it.
Peter Schiff
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