Stocks, Bonds, Reality Returning? President Trump Stock Trades Like a Pro.

Baltic Dry Index. 3054 -38     Brent Crude 110.63

Spot Gold  4463                          Spot Silver 73.79

US 2 Year Yield 4.13 +06

US Federal Debt. 39.264 trillion

US GDP 32.135 trillion.

The whole gospel of Karl Marx can be summed up in a single [? Ed] sentence: Hate the man who is better off than you are. Never under any circumstances admit that his success may be due to his own efforts, to the productive contribution he has made to the whole community. Always attribute his success to the exploitation, the cheating, the more or less open robbery of others. Never under any circumstances admit that your own failure may be owing to your own weakness, or that the failure of anyone else may be due to his own defects - his laziness, incompetence, improvidence, or stupidity.

Henry Hazlitt

Is reality returning in the stock casinos and international Treasury bond markets? If it is, lookout below in the stock casinos. All those circular deals betting on AI will likely unravel.

Expect more failures in the private credit sector too.

Asia markets fall as Treasury yields climb and Iran tensions linger

Published Tue, May 19 2026 7:46 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Wednesday as investors weighed elevated bond yields and renewed geopolitical tensions, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on Tuesday that he was “an hour away” from deciding to attack Iran, before he was persuaded to postpone the strike for a few days.

Yields on U.S. Treasurys advanced as investors continued to dump bonds on fears inflation is reigniting. The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was last trading almost 1 basis point lower at 5.174%. It briefly hit 5.197% during the session, marking its highest level since July 2007.

Japan’s super-long government bond yields eased slightly on Wednesday, with the 30-year JGB yield falling over 3 basis points to 4.122% after hitting record highs on Monday.

Meanwhile, shorter-dated Japanese debt continued to come under pressure, with the 5-year JGB yield climbing to a record 2.041%.

State Street’s Masahiko Loo said record-high Japanese government bond yields are feeding into a broader global “duration reset,” though he stressed the move should tighten global financial conditions only gradually rather than trigger systemic stress.

While higher JGB yields could weigh on duration-sensitive assets and raise global borrowing costs, Loo said the repricing remains part of a broader adjustment in bond markets rather than a Japan-specific funding shock. He noted that Japan’s debt market is still largely domestically financed and underpinned by massive household savings buffers.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.29%, while the Topix declined 1.45%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.69%, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 2.23%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.85%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 0.55%, and the mainland’s CSI 300 was down 0.3%.

U.S. stock futures ticked slightly higher. S&P 500 futures added 0.14%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.25%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 55 points, or 0.11%.

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks closed lower with the S&P 500 posting its third straight losing session, as a jump in bond yields threatened the bull market.

The S&P 500 closed down 0.67%, ending at 7,353.61, while the Nasdaq Composite finished 0.84% lower at 25,870.71. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 322.24 points, or 0.65%, to close at 49,363.88.

Asia-Pacific markets: Treasury yields, Nikkei 225, Kospi

U.S. Treasurys are now firmly in the ‘danger zone,’ strategists say

Published Tue, May 19 2026 9:44 PM EDT

U.S. Treasurys have entered a “danger zone” as surging long-term yields raise fears that sticky inflation and hawkish rate expectations could begin spilling over into equities and broader risk assets, said HSBC.

The selloff in government bonds intensified Tuesday, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield above 5.19% to its highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year yield climbed toward 4.69%.

Yields on the 30-year are up slightly less than 1 basis point at 5.184% as of 9:10p.m. ET, while yields on the 10 year are at 4.667%.

“U.S. Treasuries are now firmly in the Danger Zone – the level of 10Y UST that tends to put pressure on virtually all asset classes,” HSBC strategists wrote in a note late Tuesday, warning that further repricing in terminal rate expectations could drive yields “even further into the Danger Zone, likely leading risk assets temporarily lower.”

The bank said markets have so far remained relatively resilient because corporate earnings growth has stayed robust, valuations had already partly adjusted before the recent Iran tensions, and investors still broadly believe the Middle East conflict will mostly just affect oil.

The moves in yields are psychologically significant, particularly after the 30-year Treasury auction cleared above 5% for the first time since 2007, according to Interactive Brokers’ chief strategist Steve Sosnick.

Current market conditions are a “yellow alert” rather than a “red alert,” Sosnick said, adding that a move toward 4.65% on the 10-year yield or 5.5% on the 30-year bond could trigger more acute market stress.

Further moves may also start to affect stocks, according to BMO Capital Markets strategist Ian Lyngen.

If 30-year yields climb toward 5.25% in coming weeks, there will be a more durable pullback in equity valuations, he said.

U.S. Treasurys are now firmly in the 'danger zone,' strategists say

Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasuries as Gulf War fallout stokes currency fears

Published Tue, May 19 2026 4:59 AM EDT

Foreign governments cut U.S. Treasuries in March as the Middle East war forced central banks to liquidate dollar reserves, defending local currencies against an energy shock that sent exchange rates tumbling.

China reduced its holdings to $652.3 billion, down roughly 6% from February to the lowest level since September 2008, according to U.S. Treasury data released late Monday stateside.

Japan, the single largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, shed approximately $47 billion to $1.191 trillion. Overall foreign holdings fell to $9.25 trillion in March from $9.49 trillion in February.

The selloff came as the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict and a subsequent surge in crude oil prices sent the Japanese yen and other Asian currencies tumbling. Regional economies reliant on Gulf oil imports, including Japan, faced the largest energy shock in decades, prompting policymakers to sell part of their dollar-denominated assets to fund currency intervention.

“Given increased financial volatility since the start of the war in the Gulf, and resultant pressure on exchange rates, especially in Asia, it is not a surprise that U.S. Treasury holdings by central banks have fallen,” said Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC.

“Exchange market intervention to support local currencies will have led some central banks to sell a share of their U.S. Treasury holdings.”

The data for April, due next month, may show just how far central banks are willing to go to stabilize their currencies.

Policy makers also tend to recalibrate portfolios during bouts of market stress, with some selling reflecting tactical concerns about rising inflation and falling bond values — a move into cash-like assets to ensure liquidity should intervention needs escalate, Neumann said.

Treasuries have come under significant pressure with yields surging as the Middle East conflict stoked inflation fears and prompted investors to demand higher compensation for holding U.S. debt.

The selloff in foreign holdings also reflected falling bond prices, as foreign investors logged a $142.1 billion valuation loss on long-term Treasury holdings in March alone.

Bucking the trend, the U.K. added roughly $29.6 billion to its holdings to $926.9 billion in March, as several smaller holders pulled back.

‘Shadow holdings’

China has been gradually reducing its direct Treasury exposure since peak holdings of around $1.3 trillion in 2013, but analysts have long argued official figures undercount its true footprint in U.S. debt markets. Custodial centers like Belgium and Luxembourg are widely seen as conduits for Chinese sovereign wealth and state-linked investment.

If such “shadow holdings” are included, their aggregate figure appeared relatively steady, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Belgium held $454.0 billion of U.S. government debt in March, roughly flat from the February level, while Luxembourg’s holding levels have been stable over the past year, around $439.4 billion.

“China’s overall holding of USTs [is] staying largely stable for the time being, with short-term market volatility being the key factor driving a decline in near-term holding,” said Becky Liu, Managing Director of Global Research and Fidelity International.

For Japan, the question of whether Tokyo will resort to sustained Treasury liquidation to fund yen intervention has also drawn attention in Washington in recent weeks.

The Bank of Japan was reported to have intervened in currency markets in late March and early April after the yen weakened past the politically sensitive 160 level, as surging oil import costs widened Japan’s current account deficit and stoked fears of a depreciation spiral.

Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager at M&G Investments, told CNBC earlier this month that the signal from U.S. policymakers was clear that they hoped “the preferred policy option [for Japan] is not selling Treasuries. He pointed to trade deals in critical minerals, advanced technology, and defense as alternative opportunities that could help reduce pressure on Japan’s foreign exchange reserves.

Central banks offload U.S. Treasuries; China holdings at 18-year low

Fed to hike? When traders see a rate increase coming

Published Tue, May 19 2026 4:08 PM EDT Updated Tue, May 19 2026 5:51 PM EDT

While President Donald Trump made his pick for chair of the Federal Reserve with interest rate cuts in mind, his appointee may preside over the first rate hikes since 2023. 

That’s according to traders on prediction market platform Kalshi, where there’s a rising likelihood the Fed will move to increase rates in the next year. 

Traders place 64% odds on the next interest rate hike coming by July 2027. They also think there’s a 43% chance tighter policy happens as soon as this year. 

Odds of a rate hike have jumped in the last 24 hours in reaction to ballooning yields on U.S. Treasurys, concern that inflation will continue to march higher and as oil prices show no signs of materially falling in the midst of the unresolved Iran war. Traders previously assigned just 50-50 odds that a rate hike would come in the first half of 2027. 

The move in odds comes as the next Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is set to be sworn in on Friday, replacing Jerome Powell. 

Chances of rate cuts have been falling for some time despite Trump nominating Warsh in late January after having criticized Powell for not cutting rates quickly. A stronger-than-expected labor market and rising inflation has dampened economists’ outlooks for rate cuts, and several members of the Federal Open Market Committee at its last meeting made clear they weren’t interested in signaling any future cuts. 

But rising U.S. Treasury yields have made investors reassess the outlook. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield on Tuesday climbed to its highest level since 2007. 

“Who’s actually in the monetary-policy driver’s seat? We’d argue that it’s the Bond Vigilantes,” Yardeni wrote. 

But Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek in a Tuesday note said the moves in the bond markets might force a resolution to the war in the Middle East, potentially easing inflation pressures. 

“We believe the U.S. Treasury market has been signaling persistent inflation and this week was the final straw,” he said. “Our sense is that there is potential for bond vigilantes to push yields higher in [an] attempt to push the Trump Administration to come to a quick resolution on Iran.”

Traders on Polymarket assign 35% odds that there is a rate hike in 2026.

Fed to hike? When traders see a rate increase coming

In other news, slightly better crops news from the USA. Hopefully, US crops won’t be too impacted from the high price of fertiliser and diesel, nor the expected El Nino weather event October – February 2027.

Unusual Presidential stock trading activity?

USDA ISSUES CROP PROGRESS: 76% OF CORN, 67% OF SOYBEANS PLANTED

May 19, 2026

Corn and soybean planting is moving quickly this spring, running well ahead of the national average.

The USDA says 76% of U.S. corn has been planted as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 70%. Thirty-nine percent of the crop has emerged - up from 23% the previous week.

Soybeans are 67% planted, ahead of 53% on average, with 32% of the crop emerged.

Winter wheat conditions were reported at 27% good to excellent, down a percentage point from the previous week, and down considerable from the 52% that was reported this time last year.

The U.S. spring wheat crop is 73% planted, ahead of the average pace of 66%, and 39% of the crop has emerged.

Cotton planting has reached 41% completion, in-line with the five-year average.

Rice is 88% planted, up from 84% last week. Seventy-four percent of the crop has emerged.

The sorghum crop is 30% planted, even with the five-year average pace.

Pasture and range conditions are rated 28% good to excellent, down from 31% last week, and down from 40% last year.

The USDA's national weekly crop progress and condition reports are scheduled to run through the end of November.

AgriMarketing.com - USDA Issues Crop Progress: 76% Of Corn, 67% Of Soybeans Planted

1 big thing: Trader in chief

May 19, 2026

In a government filing late last week, Trump disclosed more than 3,500 stock trades on his behalf in the first quarter — at least $1 million each was purchased in shares of Nvidia, Oracle, Microsoft, Boeing and more.

• The trading included sales of holdings in Meta, Amazon and Walt Disney, among others.
• All told, there were hundreds of millions of dollars worth of transactions, per the Financial Times, although it is not known how much money the president earned (or lost) as a result.

Why it matters: In modern history, no president has had an active investment portfolio quite like this.

• "We've never seen a president trading actively in the stock market before," says Richard Painter, who served as the chief White House ethics counsel under former President George W. Bush and is a critic of Trump.
• The Trump Organization says the president's accounts are independently managed by third-party financial institutions without his input.

Between the lines: The number of trades during the first quarter was enormous — an average of about 60 a day.

• "Other than someone who is plugged into the markets full time, it's essentially impossible to do that," says Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

----Zoom in: Investors and traders were also surprised by the sheer volume of transactions.

• "In the 40-plus years of my time on Wall Street, this is an unusual amount of trading by any standards," Eric Diton, president and managing director at The Wealth Alliance, told Bloomberg.
• The pace of trading looks close to something an algorithm would pull off, Sosnick tells Axios.

The other side: "President Trump's investment holdings are maintained exclusively through fully discretionary accounts independently managed by third-party financial institutions with sole and exclusive authority over all investment decisions," a spokesperson for the Trump Organization said.

• "Trades are executed and portfolios are balanced through automated investment processes and systems administered by those institutions."
• "Neither President Trump, his family, nor The Trump Organization plays any role in selecting, directing, or approving specific investments. They receive no advance notice of trading activity and provide no input regarding investment decisions or portfolio management of any kind."

Context: Presidents have enormous sway over the markets and private sector. As a result, modern-day presidents have put their investments in blind trusts, broad-based mutual funds or Treasury bonds.

• Former President Jimmy Carter famously decided to sell his personal stock holdings upon taking office. He placed his peanut farm in a blind trust — though it wasn't without controversy.

More

Axios Markets

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.

UK unemployment rate rises as job vacancies drop to five-year low

19 May 2026

Unemployment edged back upwards despite a decline in last month's figures, as data revealed the UK jobs market deteriorated over the last quarter. The Office for National Statistics reported the UK unemployment rate stood at five per cent in the three months to March 2026. This marked a rise from the 4.9 per cent recorded in the previous month's release.

Youth unemployment also climbed to 16.2 per cent, with activity rates for the age group falling simultaneously.

WPI Strategy economist Martin Beck highlighted that the drop in payrolled employees among those under 35 was more pronounced, falling by 296,000 since October 2024, compared to a rise of 18,000 for older workers.

"In other words, the slowdown is not being felt evenly. Younger workers continue to bear the brunt of a cooling labour market," Beck said, as reported by City AM.

Vacancies declined further to a five-year low, laying bare the challenges facing job seekers in an increasingly subdued market.

The number of payrolled employees fell by 20,000 over the quarter, while an early estimate for the three months to April suggests a potential drop of 100,000 over the same period.

Bank of England officials are likely to take close note of fresh wage growth figures that may unsettle some policymakers.

Including bonuses, wage growth came in higher than anticipated at 4.1 per cent. Pay growth over the three months to March was 3.4 per cent when bonuses were excluded from the calculation, in line with economists' forecasts.

"Latest figures suggest the labour market remains soft, with vacancies at their lowest level in five years and unemployment higher than a year ago," said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics.

The latest employment data provides additional insight into the condition of the British economy following the first quarter of the calendar year.

Jack Kennedy, senior economist at Indeed, described youth unemployment as a "flashing warning signal".

"Vacancies are falling, payrolled employment is declining, and the jobless rate is rising – a combination that signals the squeeze on businesses from rising costs and uncertainty is now feeding through into tangible job market deterioration," Kennedy said.

"The spike in joblessness among young people is a reminder that the workers at the beginning of their careers feel these pressures first and hardest."

Separate GDP figures offered Rachel Reeves encouragement as the ONS estimated that the economy expanded by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year.

Projections for the employment market have been varied, with economists at the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England forecasting a peak unemployment rate of approximately 5.3 per cent.

More

UK unemployment rate rises as job vacancies drop to five-year low

Standard Chartered to cut around 7,800 jobs amid increased AI use

Tue, 19 May 2026 at 7:56 am BST

Standard Chartered has said it plans to cut around 7,800 jobs as it ramps up the use of AI across its operations.

The London-based banking giant said it will cut more than 15% of back-office roles by 2030.

It is the latest firm to cut back its staff numbers in favour of increased automation and adoption of new technologies.

The company did not reveal the locations affected by the plans, but also runs corporate offices in Bengaluru, Shenzhen and Warsaw.

It is understood the company employs around 82,000 people, with most of these in back-office roles.

“We are scaling practical uses of automation, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence to streamline processes, improve decision‑making and enhance both client service and internal efficiency,” the company said.

More

Standard Chartered to cut around 7,800 jobs amid increased AI use - Yahoo News UK

Japan economy grows faster than expected in first quarter

Tokyo (AFP) – Japanese economic growth surpassed expectations at the start of 2026, official data showed on Tuesday, but Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is mulling an extra budget as concerns grow over inflation due to the Middle East war.

Issued on: 19/05/2026 - 05:27

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the world's fourth-biggest economy expanded 0.5 percent in the first quarter, exceeding market forecasts of 0.4 percent.

Growth in private consumption and corporate investment contributed to the expansion, according to the cabinet office data.

It follows growth of 0.2 percent -- revised downwards from an earlier reading of 0.3 percent -- in the last quarter of 2025.

The data came as Takaichi plans to draft a supplementary budget in a bid to safeguard growth, as consumers face soaring prices of everything from energy to rice due to the Middle East conflict.

"Given the continuing uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, it is important to closely monitor the trend of prices and the impact on the economy," the government's top spokesman Minoru Kihara told reporters Tuesday, adding that Takaichi had instructed the minister of finance to consider arrangements to minimise risk.

'Grind to a halt'

Marcel Thieliant of Capital Economics warned the Middle East conflict was likely to impact data going forward.

"Japan's economy approached the Iran war with solid momentum but we think that GDP growth will grind to a halt this quarter and next," he wrote in a note.

Japan has been trying to stem rising oil prices with government subsidies, but the nation is likely to feel the full impact of soaring energy prices in months ahead, Thieliant said.

The country depends on the Middle East for around 95 percent of its oil imports.

Already consumer confidence has begun to slump, Thieliant added.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) said it expected consumer prices to rise 2.8 percent in the current fiscal year, compared with the 1.9 percent previously forecast, due to the impact of the conflict. It lifted next year's outlook to 2.3 percent from 2.0 percent.

This could prompt it to raise interest rates as early as June.

It also slashed its fiscal 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent from 1.0 percent, and for next year trimmed its projection to 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent.

Taro Saito of the NLI Research Institute said that "disruptions in logistics will trigger production adjustments, while the deterioration of terms of trade due to soaring crude oil prices will put downward pressure on corporate profits and the real purchasing power of households".

Expectations of monetary tightening, along with concerns over Takaichi's fiscal policy, have helped drive a sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields in recent days.

Japan is also believed to have spent tens of billions of dollars in the market to boost the value of the yen, which has weakened in recent months due to the global uncertainty, as well as the gap between US and Japanese interest rates.

A weaker yen makes the cost of imports more expensive in Japan, which relies on foreign countries for much of its energy and food needs.

Japan economy grows faster than expected in first quarter

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Stellantis joins race to build mini-EVs for Europe

Paris (France) (AFP) – Stellantis, owner of the Jeep and Fiat brands, announced Tuesday that it would start building smaller, low-cost electric cars for the European market, where demand for clean-energy vehicles has fallen short of automakers' hopes.

Issued on: 19/05/2026 - 09:29

It it the latest carmaker on the continent to embrace more affordable EVs in the face of brutal competition from Chinese rivals looking to make inroads overseas.

The company did not specify which of its 14 brands would start producing its "E-Cars" at Stellantis's Pomigliano d'Arco factory near Naples in Italy.

"Our customers are calling for a revival of small, stylish vehicles, proudly produced in Europe, which are also affordable and environmentally friendly," chief executive Antonio Filosa said in a statement.

Filosa was brought in last year with a mandate to address multiple challenges for the world's fourth-biggest automaker, not least under-utilisation of its European factories in a market still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Automakers are also racing to shift away from combustible engines under EU rules that call for 90 percent of all cars sold in the bloc to be electric by 2035.

To ease the transition, the European Commission created last December a new category for small EVs that would get more favourable tax treatment and count more in their overall electric offerings -- if they are built in Europe.

Renault has already jumped in with its R5 and Twingo models, while Volkswagen is rolling out a new ID.Polo, unveiled last month.

"The E-Car... is being developed in the true tradition of European 'people's mobility -- addressing the unprecedented contraction of the small affordable car segment in Europe in recent years," Stellantis said.

The announcement comes as the company is reportedly exploring deals with Chinese automakers to sell them underused European factories.

Stellantis joins race to build mini-EVs for Europe

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org) 

When Alexander the Great visited the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: ‘Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.’ It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.

Henry Hazlitt