Baltic
Dry Index. 3189 +106 Brent Crude 106.02
Spot Gold 4715 Spot Silver 87.78
US 2 Year Yield 3.98 -0.02
US Federal Debt. 39.240 trillion
US GDP 32.117 trillion.
I suppose that if you are on a cruise ship you’re never very distant from a rat. But I’m surprised that hantavirus didn’t first strike the House of Commons, where they are even nearer and more numerous.
Adam Smith Institute, 13 May 2026.
The big news of the day will come from the summit in Beijing between Presidents Xi and Trump.
Trump’s gushing opening praise of President Xi bordered on the obsequious. Xi responded by asking that the US and China avoid the Thucydides trap.
Prediction markets are betting on a giant order by China for Boeing planes in return for some form of US tariffs relief.
On the US inflation front, bad news yesterday from the US Producer Price Index. But with President Trump’s new central bank chairman about to take over at the Fed, few expect the Fed to respond by any interest rate rise any time soon. He was picked by Trump to lower US interest rates not raise them.
US bond vigilantes seem to have awoke from
their slumber raising rates on the longer end of the yield curve
Xi asks Trump if U.S. and China can avoid
‘Thucydides Trap’ at high-stakes summit
Published Wed, May 13 2026 10:31 PM EDT
BEIJING — U.S. President Donald Trump met his Chinese
counterpart Xi Jinping in
Beijing on Thursday morning, kickstarting a high-stakes summit that is expected
to cover trade, tariffs, Taiwan and Iran, and runs through Friday.
The relationship between the two countries
is going to be “better than ever before,” Trump told Xi in his opening remarks,
according to official broadcast footage. Trump, who also visited China in 2017
in his first term, said the two leaders have known each other personally for
longer than any other U.S. or Chinese president.
Speaking just ahead of Trump, Xi noted the
global attention on the meeting, and said a major question for the two
countries was whether they could avoid the “Thucydides Trap,” according to an official English
translation of his Chinese remarks broadcast by CCTV.
The Thucydides Trap refers to
how tensions historically between a rising and ruling power have often resulted
in a war. Graham Allison, the Harvard professor who popularized the concept,
told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”
that he expects the trade
truce Trump and Xi reached at their meeting in South Korea last fall
will become a formal agreement.
“The big word will be stabilization,”
Allison said Thursday.
The two presidents wrapped up their first
meeting after about an hour, including a welcome ceremony, and are set to have
multiple discussions through midday Friday.
Trump is expected to visit the Temple of
Heaven, a historic landmark, in the afternoon, and attend a state banquet in
the evening.
“China comes into this meeting far more
confident than in 2017, when it feared even a small rise in U.S. tariffs. In
the last year, Xi has been able to push back and neutralize much of Trump’s
actions,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese
Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China was the first major
economy to retaliate against Trump’s “Liberation
Day” tariffs in April 2025.
More
Xi
asks Trump if U.S. and China can avoid 'Thucydides Trap' at high-stakes summit
Asia-Pacific stocks trade mixed as Trump lands in
Beijing for high-stakes Xi meeting
Published Wed, May 13 2026 7:45 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Thursday
as investors look to a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump
and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for clues on the future of U.S.-China
ties and global trade.
Trump landed in Beijing Wednesday for the
closely watched summit, accompanied by a group of U.S. executives,
including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia boss Jensen Huang.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.27%, while
the Topix slid 0.23%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.38%, while the small-cap
Kosdaq climbed 1.31%.
Samsung shares rose as much as 5.46%,
notching a fresh record high. The tech giant
suffered a brief wirepout of $66 billion in market value on Wednesday
following a labor dispute that threatened one of the biggest strikes in the
company’s history.
This comes as the labor union
threatened an 18-day strike from May 21 if its demands were not met. More than
41,000 workers are expected to join the walkout, which was first announced at a
rally on April 23.
South Korea’s finance minister Koo
Yun-cheol warned Thursday that a potential strike by Samsung workers
could pose a major threat to the country’s economic growth,
exports and financial markets.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined
0.16%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index rose 1.32%,
while the CSI 300 added 0.27%.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they expect
the Trump-Xi meeting to focus narrowly on trade and export controls, including
tariffs, restrictions on rare earths and semiconductors, rather than producing
a sweeping reset in bilateral ties.
The investment bank said China could agree
to step up purchases of U.S. farm goods, energy and aircraft in exchange for
avoiding further tariff hikes.
“While unlikely to be a game changer for
US-China relations, we think the meeting could act as a tactical catalyst for
strength in the Chinese yuan and Chinese equities,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in
a note late Wednesday.
The bank maintained a positive view on
China assets, citing the country’s export competitiveness and what it described
as an “undervalued” currency, while reiterating an overweight call on Chinese
equities, particularly mainland A-shares over Hong Kong-listed H-shares.
In the U.S., futures were little
changed. S&P futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed
0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 111 points, or nearly
0.3%.
Overnight on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose to a new
all-time high as traders’ enthusiasm for the technology trade overshadowed yet
another hotter-than-expected
inflation report.
The broad market index rose 0.58% to
7,444.25, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added
1.2% to end at 26,402.34. Both hit fresh intraday and closing records.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average shed 67.36 points, or 0.14%, ending at 49,693.20.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, U.S.-China meeting
Trump in China: Traders predict a tariff truce
extension and Boeing aircraft purchases
Published Wed, May 13 2026 1:46 PM EDT Updated
Wed, May 13 2026 2:13 PM EDT
Prediction market traders think
President Donald Trump will
make some major announcements in his trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Traders on Kalshi give an 86% chance that
he will announce China will buy aircraft from domestic manufacturer Boeing.
That belief is shared with Wall Street, as
Boeing’s stock advanced nearly 2% on Wednesday ahead of the meeting.
“The speculation is that Trump wants this
to be the largest order ever announced, which could mean a Boeing purchase
commitment in the triple-digit billions,” wrote Tobin Marcus, head of U.S.
politics and policy at Wolfe Research, in a note. “Investors will need to await
clarification from the company about how ‘real’ those numbers are and what
specific airframes are included.”
Traders are also placing more than 81%
odds that Trump will announce an extension of the U.S.-China
tariff truce. In their October deal, China agreed to pause export controls
on rare earths while the U.S. cut tariffs on the country related to fentanyl to
10% from 20%.
Barclays predicted that tariff might move
a few percentage points lower if China purchases aircraft, as well as American
oil and soybeans. While Kalshi traders see a 79% chance a soybean purchase is
announced, oil purchases have a much lower probability at just 24%.
Traders also think there’s a 69% chance a
U.S.-China Board of Trade is announced. This is a key goal of U.S. Trade
Representative Jamieson Greer, Wolfe’s Marcus noted. “We suspect that this will
be done primarily through ongoing purchase commitments, with the Board of Trade
eliciting a centralized answer from the CCP about what China will buy from the
US to mitigate their bilateral trade surplus,” he wrote.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday as he
departed for the trip that while he expected
to chat about the Iran war with Xi, he also said, “I don’t think we
need any help with Iran.” Despite that, traders see a likelihood of 61% that he
talks about Tehran during the bilateral meeting. They also give a 59% chance he
talks about oil or gasoline.
More
Traders predict Trump will make major announcements during China trip
In other news.
Hormuz closure cuts OPEC oil production by 30% and
threatens demand growth this year, cartel says
Published Wed, May 13 2026 9:34 AM EDT Updated
Wed, May 13 2026 12:45 PM EDT
Oil production among OPEC members
fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the start of the Iran war
in late February, the cartel said in its latest monthly update on Wednesday.
OPEC also lowered its demand growth
forecast for 2026 to around 1.2 million barrels per day, down from about 1.4
million bpd previously. Global demand is facing constraints because supply from
the Persian Gulf has been effectively cut off by Iran’s blockade of the Strait
of the Hormuz.
OPEC production fell by 1.7 million bpd in
April after output plunged by 7.9 million bpd in March. In total, production
among OPEC members has dropped more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd, during the
war.
The update Wednesday from OPEC will likely
be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which left the
cartel on May 1.
The total supply loss from the Gulf oil
producers now exceeds a billion barrels with more than 14 million bpd shut down
due to the Hormuz closure, according to the International
Energy Agency’s latest update published Wednesday
In contrast to OPEC’s rosier outlook,
the IEA sees
oil demand falling by 420,000 bpd in 2026. The IEA is a Paris-headquartered
group of mostly Western nations that coordinate to ensure energy security.
The actual gap between supply and demand
is much smaller because the market had a surplus of oil heading into 2026, the
IEA said. Producers and consumers are also taking action to mitigate the loss,
the group said.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have redirected
some exports to ports that bypass Hormuz, the IEA said. Producers outside the
Middle East, particularly the U.S., have surged exports to record levels in
response to the crisis.
Government and commercial stockpiles also
helped mitigate the losses, the IEA said. But oil inventories are depleting at
a record pace due to the mounting supply loss from the closure of Hormuz.
Inventories fell by 250 million barrels, or 4 million bpd, over March and
April, according to the IEA.
The oil market will likely see more price
volatility as the peak summer demand period nears, the IEA said.
OPEC
lowers demand growth forecast, production falls more than 30%
Higher gas prices sent wholesale inflation soaring
last month, likely signaling more pain ahead for consumers
May 13, 2026
The war with Iran is squeezing US
businesses at a rate not seen in nearly four years, and it’s likely to cause
them to raise prices for consumers even more.
The Producer Price Index, a measure of
wholesale inflation, increased in April to 6% on an annual basis from 4% in
March, well exceeding economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, the index
increased 1.4%, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. That’s twice the pace that economists expected.
A 15.6% increase in gas prices accounted
for 40% of the increase in prices businesses paid last month.
Even when excluding the volatile
categories of food and energy, core PPI rose 1% for the month, pushing the
annual rate to 5.2%.
What this means for consumers
Wednesday’s report does not guarantee
consumers will see prices rise at the same rates that businesses are
experiencing. Companies can try to pass along their higher costs, but they also
have to weigh whether consumers are willing — or able — to pay more.
In the current environment, where
Americans are already seeing consumer price
increases outpace wage growth — largely a result of the jump in
gas prices — they have less power to absorb higher costs.
At the same time, businesses also have
less room to absorb elevated costs, having already shouldered much of the
burden of President Donald Trump’s heftier tariffs over the past year. That
means at least some of their added expenses are likely to be passed on to
consumers. The question is how much.
Copper Climbs Toward Record High as Global Supply
Tightens
Copper extended gains above $14,000 a ton,
inching toward a record high seen earlier this year, as supply risks mount on
mine disruptions around the world.
13 May 2026, 09:14 AM IST
(Bloomberg) -- Copper extended gains above
$14,000 a ton, inching toward a record high seen earlier this year, as supply
risks mount on mine disruptions around the world.
The red metal rallied for an eighth
session to touch $14,196.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, close to an
all-time high of $14,527.50 in January.
A squeeze on Middle Eastern supplies of
sulfur has threatened the production outlook for some mines in Africa,
compounding existing disruptions at other major sites across the world.
However, copper demand is resilient mostly
thanks to the world’s biggest user China, which has seen robust consumption
from power grids, renewable energy and artificial intelligence sectors.
The slew of supply issues combined with
solid demand is leading industrial metals to recover notably as worries over
the Iran war ease, according to Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary
Futures Co.
Copper futures on New York’s Comex jumped
to a record of $6.69 a pound, widening their premium to LME copper above $500 a
ton in anticipation of the US imposing tariffs on refined metal imports. The
potential duties have the effect of luring refined copper into the US and
draining supplies elsewhere.
The US Commerce Secretary is due to
deliver an updated report on the domestic copper market by June 30, part of a
broader push to bolster supplies of a metal critical to growing electrification
around the world.
Meanwhile in China, worsening raw material
shortages at mines have started to affect refined metal output.
Refined copper output stood at 1.05
million tons in April, down 3% from March, after concentrate treatment charges
plunged further and invoicing restrictions tightened supply of scrap as
feedstock, according to Beijing Antaike Information Co. Production may drop
further in May due to maintenance at smelters, it added.
Copper rose 0.5% to $14,099 a ton as of
11:06 a.m. in Shanghai. Other base metals were also higher, with aluminum up
0.3% to $3,574 a ton and tin climbing 0.5% to $55,070.
Copper Climbs
Toward Record High as Global Supply Tightens | Stock Market News
US winter wheat ratings fall to four-year low
despite planting gains
May 13, 2026
Winter wheat ratings plunge as planting
accelerates
The USDA's latest report shows winter
wheat conditions deteriorating to 28% good-to-excellent, the weakest rating for
mid-May since 2022 and well below analyst expectations of 32%. Kansas, the top
producer, saw its rating drop to 17%, with similar declines in Nebraska,
Oklahoma, and Texas. Despite poor wheat conditions, planting of corn, soybeans,
and spring wheat is outpacing both trade estimates and five-year averages,
signaling strong farmer response to seasonal windows.
Drought threatens yields and market
stability
Severe drought grips roughly 70% of the
U.S. winter wheat area, a sharp increase from 22% a year ago, particularly
affecting the Plains. Such weather stress is likely to pressure yields and
could influence domestic and global wheat markets given the U.S.'s export role.
The combination of reduced crop ratings and persistent dryness raises the risk
of tighter supplies and price volatility through the growing season.
----What’s
next for farmers and policymakers
If drought persists, wheat yields could
fall further, potentially spurring higher prices and prompting policy
discussions on disaster relief or trade adjustments. Meanwhile, agrivoltaics
may gain policy traction as a land-use solution, especially as energy security
concerns rise due to global conflicts. Without stronger federal renewable
support, innovation in agrivoltaics will likely continue at a slower,
market-driven pace, relying on farmer-developer partnerships to expand.
US
winter wheat ratings fall to four-year low despite planting gains
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Wholesale
inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase in four years
Published
Wed, May 13 2026 8:31 AM EDT
Wholesale
prices in April rose the most in three years, signaling more nettlesome
inflation as pipeline costs intensify.
The
producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% for the month, much higher
than the 0.5% Dow Jones consensus forecast and the upwardly revised 0.7% March
increase, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.
On
an annual basis, the index was up 6%, the biggest gain since December 2022.
PPI inflation
report April 2026:
US Power Prices Climb 61% Faster Than Inflation as
Demand Surges
May 12, 2026 at 6:21 PM UTC
Consumer prices climbed last month by the
most in three years, but prices for electricity surged even more, highlighting
an intensifying battle between utilities, consumers and power grids.
Electricity prices jumped 6.1% last month
compared to a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data
published on Tuesday. That’s well above the overall consumer price index,
which rose 3.8%, the
most since May 2023.
Mounting electricity demand from data
centers has strained US energy grids, and customers are feeling the impact from
soaring wholesale power costs. Lawmakers have
attacked utilities and grid operators over higher electricity bills,
while utilities and regulators are calling
into question the design of the US grid. Concerns over energy affordability are
emerging as a critical issue in this year’s midterm elections.
To answer voters’ complaints, politicians
are working to reform the utility model and tamp down rates. The New
Jersey Board of Public Utilities, for example, announced last week plans
to evaluate different
ways to reward utilities based on performance, including affordability and
reliability, instead of the current model that ties their profit to investments
in infrastructure.
US Electricity Prices Climb 61% Faster Than Inflation as Demand Surges - Bloomberg
Trump brushes off Iran war’s cost at home: ‘I
don’t think about American financial situation’
President’s stunning admission comes as
American struggle with surging inflation and record gas prices as a result of
the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Andrew Feinberg Tuesday 12 May 2026 19:47 BST
President Donald Trump on
Tuesday said the
plight of Americans finding it harder and harder to make ends meet and rising
gas and consumer prices simply aren’t on his mind as the months-long
Iran war and impasse over
the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel
surging inflation in the United States.
Trump made the stunning brush-off
statement as he departed the White House for Beijing, where he will be feted by
Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a state visit, including a lavish Thursday night
banquet at the Great Hall of the People.
Asked about the continuing pocketbook
pressures faced by everyday consumers as a result of the war he started
more than two months ago, Trump told reporters: "I don't think about
American financial situation — I don't think about anybody. I think about one
thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
The president’s blunt comments came just
hours after the Labor Department released inflation data showing
the Consumer Price
Index spiking
3.8 percent from the same point last year, including a .06 percent jump last
month in the CPI. Gasoline prices, meanwhile, surged by a whopping 5.4 percent
last month alone as the ongoing standoff between the U.S. and Iran has blocked
the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil supply transits each
year.
His remarks also came just hours after the
release of a new survey showing Americans overwhelmingly blame the president
for the record-high gas prices and rising mortgage rates and food costs that
have followed.
According to a CNN/SSRS poll, some 77
percent of respondents said Trump’s policies have driven the cost of living up,
with most people blaming his decision to go to war with Iran and the implementation
of tariffs as the driving factors.
Trump became irate when pressed by
reporters on whether his policies have done anything to fulfill his campaign
promise to lower prices that consumers had blamed on the Biden administration
when they voted to return him to the presidency for a second, non-consecutive
term in 2024.
He claimed his administration’s efforts
are “working incredibly” because inflation had cooled to roughly 1.7 percent
before he elected to start a war against Iran and ignore longstanding concerns
that Tehran would react by closing down the Strait of Hormuz and thereby
crippling the global economy.
At the same time, he suggested that anyone
who is concerned about Americans’ economic conditions wants Iran to acquire
nuclear weapons while also claiming that the economy is in good shape because
stocks are high.
“Anybody that wants them to have a nuclear
weapon is a stupid person. So we said we're going to take the greatest stock
market in history and we're going to go down a little bit. And actually that
turned out to be incorrect, because our stock market is now at the highest
point in history, which frankly, surprised a lot of people,” he said.
Continuing, Trump said the end of the war
would “not be long” and claimed that oil prices would go bottom out once the
impasse over the Strat of Hormuz is resolved as a result.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Global auto
giants plug into China's battery power
By MAY ZHOU in Houston, Texas |
chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2026-05-12 11:15
Tesla has recently added Sunwoda
Electronic Co. as its fifth global power battery supplier, according to a
report by 36kr, a Chinese technology and new economy platform.
Sunwoda is manufacturing
third-generation lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells known for fast charging
speed, and has begun shipping them to Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory, according
to the report. Those cells are going into Tesla cars built in Shanghai for export.
Tesla has a long-running relationship
with China's CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Company), a global leader in
renewable energy technology and the world's largest manufacturer of LFP and
energy storage. It also sources LFP cells from BYD —including roughly 20
percent of the cells for its Shanghai Megafactory.
In September, Tesla signed a deal with
China's EVE Energy to supply energy-storage cells for its European subsidiary
from 2026 to 2030.
Industrial analyst Fred Lambert from
Electrek said that by adding Sunwoda, "Tesla is prioritizing cost leverage
over vertical integration" — the opposite of what CEO Elon Musk envisioned
in 2020.
But Lambert considered Tesla's move
"the right call" because Chinese LFP suppliers have been so efficient
that it makes it "unnecessary" for Tesla to engineer its own.
Tesla is widely recognized as the
largest single non-Chinese customer of the Chinese battery industry.
From multibillion-dollar joint ventures
in Spain, Germany and Hungary to technology-licensing deals reshaping
production in Michigan, the world's largest legacy automakers are increasingly
dependent on Chinese cell chemistry, manufacturing scale and engineering
talent.
They are racing to license, co-develop
and source from Chinese battery champions — a realignment of the EV supply
chain that puts Chinese chemistry, manufacturing know-how and capital at the
center of the global EV transition.
European automakers have enjoyed the
densest concentration of Chinese battery partnership outside Asia.
Global automotive group Stellantis
formed a 50-50 joint venture with CATL to build a 4.1 billion euro ($4.8
billion) LFP gigafactory in Zaragoza, Spain. It is set to come online in late
2026 with capacity scaling toward 50 gigawatt-hours.
Stellantis makes American brands
including Jeep, Ram, Dodge and Chrysler; European brands including Peugeot,
Fiat, Citroën, Opel and Vauxhall; and luxury brands such as Maserati, Alfa
Romeo, DS Automobiles, Lancia and Abarth.
Volkswagen has gone further by becoming
the largest shareholder of Gotion High-Tech, a major Chinese battery
manufacturer. It recently expanded its holding to more than 26 percent with a
roughly $1 billion investment to fund a 2 GWh solid-state battery line targeted
at next-generation VW and Audi vehicles.
In November, Gotion began mass
production of the "unified cell" that VW selected as the standard
format across most of its EV lineup. It is the cornerstone of Volkswagen's
strategy to reduce battery costs by up to 50 percent across its entire vehicle
lineup.
More
Global auto giants plug into China's battery power - World -
Chinadaily.com.cn
Electric bus bursts into flames in Kirkintilloch
28th April Scottish Fire and
Rescue Service
A bus has burst into flames in Kirkintilloch.
The First Glasgow service caught fire at
a bus stop in the town's Merkland Drive on Tuesday morning.
Footage on social media shows the double
decker bus engulfed in flames. [video in link.]
The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service
(SFRS) said it was called to the scene at 7:55am this morning.
Two fire appliances are currently at the
scene tackling the blaze.
There are no reports of casualties.
A spokesperson for First Bus told The Herald: “We are aware of an
incident that took place on one of our out-of-service vehicles earlier this
morning on Merkland Drive in Kirkintilloch.
"The driver contacted emergency
services who are on the scene, and we can confirm there were no passengers on
board and no injuries sustained. We will be investigating the root
cause of the incident.”
Electric bus bursts into flames in Kirkintilloch | The Herald
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate,
secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
John Maynard Keynes
No comments:
Post a Comment