Baltic
Dry Index. 3063 +62 Brent Crude 106.48
Spot Gold 4710 Spot Silver 87.35
US 2 Year Yield 4.00 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 39.235 trillion
US GDP 32.114 trillion.
To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.
Jesse Lauriston Livermore
Unless Trump’s folly war ends
immediately, most stocks and industrial commodities are trading on borrowed
time.
Bad things in the global economy, starting in Southeast Asia, are now piling up fast.
Look away from those rapidly rising US Treasury yields now.
“Brother can you spare a dime?”
Asia markets mixed as investors watch Trump-Xi
meeting and Iran tensions
Published Tue, May 12 2026 7:51 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday,
as investors digest a hotter-than-expected inflation
reading for April amid concerns over higher oil prices and the ongoing
Middle East conflict.
President Donald Trump on Monday said
the month-old ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “unbelievably weak” and “on
massive life support” after rejecting an “unacceptable” counterproposal
from Tehran to end the conflict.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump doesn’t
need congressional approval to restart strikes on Iran.
The comment comes after the administration passed the 60-day mark required by
federal war powers law to receive authorization for military force.
Meanwhile, investors will also be focusing
on developments related to the upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping, where trade is expected to be discussed.
Oil futures extended losses. The West Texas Intermediate futures
for June was 1.18% lower at $100.97 per barrel as of 11:46 p.m. ET. Brent crude futures for
July fell 1.16% at $106.52 per barrel.
South Korea’s Kospi reversed losses at the
start of the session to gain 1.75% while the small-cap Kosdaq slipped 0.46%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.66%,
while the Topix rose 1.36%. Australia’s ASX slipped 0.40%.
China’s CSI 300 was flat, while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index was
0.24% higher.
India’s Nifty 50 added 0.25%.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures traded
near the flatline. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 8 points.
During Tuesday’s session, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back
from their records. The broad market index slipped 0.16%, while the tech-heavy
Nasdaq lost 0.71%. The Dow bucked
these losses, adding 56.09 points, or 0.11%.
Asia
markets today: Nikkei, Kospi, csi 300, hang seng, trump, iran
Inflation jumps to its highest level in three
years
The war has ratcheted up prices for
gasoline, airfares and other expenses.
ByMax Zahn May 12, 2026,
1:57 PM
Inflation rose for a second consecutive
month as the U.S.-Israeli war
with Iran continued
to send gasoline prices surging in
April, government data on Tuesday showed. The inflation report matched
economists' expectations.
Prices rose 3.8% in April compared to a
year earlier, marking an increase from a
year-over-year inflation rate of 3.3% in the prior month. Annual inflation
jumped to its highest level in three years, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
(BLS) data showed.
As recently as February, inflation stood at 2.4%,
clocking in just a tick above the Federal Reserve’s target level of 2%.
The jump in prices last month owed in
large part to a sharp rise in costs for products impacted by a global oil
shock. Gasoline prices were 5% higher in April than March, the BLS report said.
Airline fares climbed 2.8% from the previous month.
The Middle East conflict prompted the
Iranian closure of the Strait
of Hormuz,
a maritime trading route that facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of
global oil supply. The standoff prompted one of the largest oil shocks ever
recorded.
The U.S. is a net exporter of petroleum,
meaning the country produces more oil than it consumes. But since oil prices
are set on a global market, U.S. prices move in response to swings in worldwide
supply and demand.
Crude oil is the main ingredient in auto
fuel, accounting for more than half of the price paid at the pump, according to
the federal U.S.
Energy Information Administration.
The price of an average gallon of gas
stood at $4.50 as of Monday, AAA data showed
– an increase of $1.52 per gallon since the war began on Feb. 28. That amounts
to a roughly 50% price jump in about two-and-a-half months.
The surge in fuel prices sent costs
surging for gas-dependent transportation, such as airline tickets. In March,
airfare costs jumped more than 3% from a month earlier.
Within weeks, the jump in prices could
spread to groceries, furniture and just about any other item delivered by
diesel-fueled trucks and tankers, some analysts previously
told ABC
News.
More
Inflation jumps to
its highest level in three years - ABC News
US-Israel War Hits Home for US Consumers
May 12, 2026 at 11:16 PM GMT+1
Inflation accelerated
in April on both rising fuel and grocery costs driven by the US-Israel
war with Iran, exceeding
wage growth in a double-slap to already strained consumers—most of
whom oppose
the conflict and blame
Donald Trump for high gas prices.
The consumer price index rose 3.8% from a
year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a division of the US
Department of Labor, the most since 2023. After adjusting for inflation, wages
fell for the first time in three years.
The figures show how the war is finally
hitting the US economy full force as energy costs surge—something likely to
continue with the Strait of Hormuz shut and the Trump administration
still struggling
for a way out of the conflict.
The government data indicated gas prices
rose almost 28% over the past two months. Grocery prices, rents and airfares
also saw large increases from a month earlier. A sustained pickup, especially
in the cost of essentials, could lead consumers to
cut back on spending.
But even without the war’s collateral
damage to prices, the numbers show inflation
still would be rising. And while Americans—despite high inflation—have
spent at surprising levels since the pandemic, executives are beginning to
worry it all might be too much. Consumers are putting less away as they try to
keep up, with the savings rate dropping in March to the lowest in three years.
In the near term, Americans can draw on
savings or tap credit cards, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank.
But the longer gas prices stay high, the more consumers will change their
spending patterns to balance their budgets. And that could be bad news for the
economy. —Jordan
Parker Erb
Iran
War Hits Home for US Consumers: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
In other news, the beginning of the end or
the end of the beginning?
Why the oil crisis could become a full-blown
catastrophe within a month
Global crude reserves are rapidly
depleting, pushing the world toward scarcity
Published: May 12, 2026 at 1:52 p.m.
ET
Global oil stockpiles have provided a
cushion for the severe production disruptions caused by the U.S. and Israel
war’s with Iran — and the resulting near-standstill of shipping traffic through
the Strait of Hormuz.
But as hopes for peace falter and with
U.S. inflation hitting a three-year high on Tuesday, analysts are sounding the
alarm about dwindling energy reserves.
From a geopolitical perspective, the
current stalemate in peace negotiations and the mix of ultimatums and
extensions could go on for a long time, said Jaime Brito, executive director of
refining and oil products at Dow Jones Energy.
“But from the point of view of energy,
this is a snowball — and every week that passes, you have tighter markets,”
Brito said.
If the Middle East war doesn’t end
quickly, the world — including the Group of 7 developed nations that have
relied on their ample oil reserves — “will start facing scarcity,” warned Ipek
Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote. And analysts at J.P. Morgan recently
said that developed countries’ commercial crude stocks could be close to
operational stress levels by early June.
On paper, global crude inventories are
ample, and they include both commercial stockpiles held by companies and
strategic stockpiles held by governments. But not every barrel is available,
and operating with low levels of inventories causes its own problems.
Estimates on exactly how much is
stockpiled vary, because both companies and governments are playing it close to
the vest: They are not keen on letting the world know exactly how much crude
they have stockpiled.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently pegged
global commercial and SPR crude inventories at 5.75 billion barrels, while
Societe Generale sees it at about 7.8 billion barrels and J.P. Morgan has it at
around 8.2 billion barrels — and all three used a mix of official and private
data to arrive at their estimates. For context, there were about 9 billion
barrels sitting in inventories back in 2020.
The draws have been “unevenly distributed
by geography and by type of product, and the biggest declines are in the least
visible areas of the market,” said Antoine Halff, a fellow at Columbia
University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and co-founder of Kayrros, a
geospatial analytics company.
“Asia is the main outlet for crude oil
from the Middle East Gulf, and that’s predictably enough where the downward
pressure on crude inventories has been most severe,” he said. Crude stocks in
the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, have fallen by about 12% since Feb.
28, the start of the war, to their lowest levels in at least 10 years, he
noted.
Providing some relief in March, the
International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from
the strategic reserves of its member countries, with the U.S. Strategic
Petroleum Reserve set to provide nearly half of the backup supplies.
Demand curbs, including flight cuts from global airlines and restrictions
mostly in Asian countries, have also helped manage the disruptions in crude
production. According to J.P. Morgan, global oil demand fell by an average of
2.8 million barrels a day in March, and was tracking a larger decline of 4.3 million
barrels a day in April and an even steeper decline of about 5.5 million barrels
a day in May.
“A core assumption of our framework is
that the accelerating pace of oil inventory depletion will ultimately force the
reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, one way or another,” J.P. Morgan analysts
said in a recent note.
---- Analysts at Morgan Stanley on Monday said
that oil markets are in a “race against time,” as the combination of factors that have been in place to curb
crude-price jolts will fray if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed
through June.
And once the conflict ends and tanker
transit through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it would still take weeks for
flows to resume, and markets likely will still price in risk of potential
additional disruptions.
Saudi Arabia’s state-controlled oil giant
Saudi Aramco cautioned Monday that if the strait remains closed for
weeks further, a market rebalance likely will extend into 2027 and “oil supply
challenges” will continue.
Why
the oil crisis could become a full-blown catastrophe within a month -
MarketWatch
Shipping industry fears fuel shortages as Iran war
squeezes bunker fuel supply
12 May 2026
Ship operators rely on a sludgelike
substance known as bunker fuel to keep vessels running. The Iran war 's
closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked
off the supply of this fuel that powers the global maritime industry and its
largest refueling hub in Asia.
Bunker fuel is a literal bottom of the
barrel product — heavier and dirtier than the more expensive kinds of refined
crude oil used by other vehicles like cars and airplanes — it sinks to the
bottom of storage containers.
But it helps move the 80% of globally
traded goods that are transported by sea, and experts say that means a shortage
of bunker fuel will translate to higher shipping costs, increase consumer
prices and hurt the bottom lines of businesses worldwide.
That will be an issue first in Asia, which
relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil.
In Singapore, the world’s
biggest refueling hub for bunker fuel, reserves are dwindling and prices are
spiking.
Shipping companies are trying to adapt to
the energy shock, reducing vessel speeds and revising schedules to cut costs in
the short term while making plans to acquire ships that can run on alternative
fuels.
But some companies won’t survive this
triage for long, according to Henning Gloystein of the Eurasia Group
consultancy firm, who warned that the pain will spread beyond Asia through
global supply chains.
Southeast Asia turns to
‘energy triage’
Asia, which was hit first and hardest by
the energy shock, has adopted various forms of “energy triage " to cope,
increasing its use of coal, buying more crude oil from Russia and reviving
plans to develop nuclear power.
But Asia is bracing for further impacts as
energy reserves dwindle and government subsidies dry up.
More than half of global seaborne trade
moved through Asian ports in 2024, according to United Nations data, so what
happens there will have global consequences.
For now, Singapore's supplies of bunker
fuel have held up even as the price races up.
But the prolonged cutoff from major
sources of the heavier crude oil needed for bunker fuel, like Iraq and Kuwait,
will cause shortages, said Natalia Katona of the commodity site OilPrice.
“We just see the price in Singapore going
up, up, up,” Katona said.
Before the war, bunker fuel in Singapore
cost about $500 per metric ton ($450 per U.S. ton). That went up to more than
$800 ($725 per U.S. ton) as of early May.
More
Shipping industry
fears fuel shortages as Iran war squeezes bunker fuel supply
Huge blow for Germany as two big companies axe
2,900 jobs
12 May 2026
Porsche and Wacker
Chemie have announced plans to slash a combined 2,900 jobs in the latest blow
to Germany's struggling
industrial economy. The luxury car giant confirmed it will cut more than 500
jobs and shut down three subsidiaries as collapsing profits, weak Chinese demand and
rising US tariffs pile
pressure on the business.
Meanwhile Munich-based chemicals firm
Wacker Chemie has agreed plans to cut around 2,400 positions - roughly 10% of
its global workforce - as part of a major cost-saving drive. The twin
announcements add to mounting fears over the health of Germany's manufacturing
sector, which has been battered by soaring energy costs, falling exports and
weakening industrial demand.
Porsche said the cuts formed part of a
"strategic realignment" designed to refocus the company on its core
operations.
The losses will affect staff at Cellforce
Group in Kirchentellinsfurt, Porsche eBike Performance in Ottobrunn and Zagreb,
and software specialist Cetitec in Pforzheim and Croatia.
Michael Leiters, chairman of Porsche's
executive board, said: "We must refocus on our core business. This is the
indispensable foundation for a successful strategic realignment.
"This forces us to make painful cuts
- including our subsidiaries."
Roughly 350 jobs will disappear from
Porsche eBike Performance after the company decided to abandon its
high-performance electric bike drive systems business because of
"fundamentally changed market conditions".
Another 50 roles will go at battery
technology company Cellforce, which Porsche said no longer had a
"sufficiently viable" future under its revised strategy.
Cetitec, which develops software for
Porsche and the wider Volkswagen Group, is also set to close, putting around 90
jobs at risk across Germany and Croatia.
The cuts come after a disastrous year for
Porsche financially.
----The carmaker blamed delayed EV
launches, battery-related costs, weaker demand in China and higher US import
tariffs.
Deliveries in China fell by more than 20%
during the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Separately, Wacker Chemie said it had
reached an agreement to reduce its workforce by around 2,400 employees as it
battles weak demand and deteriorating conditions across the chemicals sector.
The company has faced mounting pressure
from sluggish industrial production and persistently high operating costs in
Germany, which have increasingly damaged the competitiveness of manufacturers.
Germany's once-dominant industrial sector
has endured a torrid period over the past two years, with major firms across
automotive, chemicals and engineering announcing factory closures, redundancies
and restructuring programmes.
Economists have repeatedly warned that
Germany risks long-term industrial decline unless energy costs fall and global
demand recovers.
The latest wave of cuts is likely to
intensify pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz as Europe's biggest economy
struggles to regain momentum.
Huge blow for
Germany as two big companies axe 2,900 jobs
3 UK chocolate firms plunge into administration in
2026 - full list
11 May 2026
Three UK chocolatiers have gone into
administration in 2026 so far as alarm bells are raised about the luxury
confectionery industry.
A major chocolate firm in business since
1889 has spoken out about the 'many challenges' it says are facing the
chocolate industry in the UK following three luxury chocolate firms plunging
into administration or liquidation in the past six months.
Marasu's
Petit Fours announced it had ceased trading after being in business since 1986, ending its
supply to big names like Fortnum & Mason, Selfridges and Harrods.
The company became London's largest
producer of upmarket chocolates, producing more than 300 tonnes a year from its
25,000 square foot base in Park Royal.
But on February 6, the
firm appointed administrators Alessandro Sidoli and Jessica Barker
of Xeinadin Corporate Recovery Limited following a turbulent time for the
chocolate industry in general.
It came after Prestat, another luxury choc
company and one of London's oldest chocolatiers, entered
a 'pre pack administation process', closing its iconic London store and
transitioning to an online-only model.
In March, Nottinghamshire chocolate
company The Gourmet Chocolate Pizza Co confirmed on its website that it had
stopped all operations, just weeks before Easter, which is usually a busy time
for luxury confectioners.
In April, the firm was formally placed
into liquidation.
In a statement on its website, Yorkshire
based chocolatiers Whitakers, which has been in business since 1889, spoke
about the 'perfect storm' melting away the luxury chocolate industry in
Britain.
It said: "Together, these closures
and restructurings serve as a stark reminder that even heritage names with
decades - or in some cases over a century - of history are not immune to the
challenges facing UK manufacturing today.
More
3 UK chocolate
firms plunge into administration in 2026 - full list
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
UK government borrowing costs surge to highest since 2008 as PM Starmer
pressured to quit
Published Tue, May 12 20263:40 AM EDT
Yields on U.K. government bonds surged to
multi-decade highs on Tuesday morning, as pressure mounted on Britain’s Prime
Minister Keir Starmer to resign from his post.
By 8:41 a.m. in London, the yield on the
benchmark 10-year
gilt had jumped 10 basis points to trade at around
5.103%. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Meanwhile, yields at the long end of the curve reached their highest
since 1998, with the 20-year gilt yield adding 10
basis points while 30-year yields jumped
11 basis points higher.
UK government borrowing costs
surge as PM Starmer pressured to quit
Universities across England face ‘real risk’ of
closure due to insolvency for first time
Tue, 12 May 2026 at 8:27 am BST
A university in England faces a
"real risk" of closure due to
insolvency for
the first time, a situation MPs have warned could be "catastrophic"
for students, staff, and local communities.
The Education
Committee said
the government has no clear strategy for universities facing insolvency as
higher education institutions battle a “financial crisis”.
In a new report on higher education
funding, the committee also raised concerns that current immigration policies
could negatively impact the number of international students, whose fees are a
crucial revenue stream for institutions.
The Office for
Students (OfS), England's higher
education regulator, informed cross-party MPs that it fears 24 providers are at
risk of insolvency and closure within the 12 months from last November. It also
said 45 per cent of higher education providers could be facing a deficit for
2025/26.
Among the 24 institutions identified as
being at risk, seven serve more than 3,000 students each.
“The higher education sector in England is facing a
financial crisis that now poses a real risk of institutional insolvency,” the
committee said.
“We heard compelling evidence that,
without urgent and coordinated action, there is a clear possibility of a
university closing.”
It added: “While no university has ever
closed in England due to insolvency, the risk is clear.
“It could have a catastrophic impact, not
only on the students and staff connected with the institution, but on the wider
local economy and community.”
The committee said there is currently “no
clearly understood protocol for how the Government might respond to a situation
of a provider at risk of imminent insolvency”, calling it “a very serious
problem”.
MPs recommended the Government establish
an early warning system which should set out plans for protecting students,
staff and the wider community in the event of insolvency and provide a range of
options on what providers can do, including restructuring, merging with another
institution, direct financial support or orderly exit.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
LFP
battery failure, (lithium iron phosphate.) Approx. 8 minutes.
Built Like a Bunker: FULL REPORT
Built Like a Bunker: FULL REPORT - YouTube
Lithium iron phosphate battery
Lithium iron phosphate battery - Wikipedia
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers
change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature
never changes.
Jesse Lauriston Livermore
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