Baltic
Dry Index. 2730 +44 Brent Crude 108.09
Spot Gold 4622 Spot Silver 76.08
US 2 Year Yield 3.88 unch.
US Federal Debt. 39.198 trillion
US GDP 32.086 trillion.
Once doubt begins it spreads rapidly.
John Maynard Keynes
An interesting day ahead. President Trump says he intends to free the ships stranded in the Persian Gulf starting today.
What happens next will be crucial for the oil and other commodity markets, stock markets and probably the long end of the US bond market.
South Korean stocks hit fresh record, building on
historic monthly rally in April
Published Sun, May 3 2026 7:49 PM EDT
South Korean stocks rose Monday to hit a
fresh record, following their strongest
monthly gain in April, as investors weighed tensions between Iran and the
U.S. and a U.S. plan to reopen shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. would attempt
to “free” stranded ships affected by the Strait
of Hormuz closure since the start of the Iran war, U.S. President
Trump said in his Truth Social post Sunday.
Dubbed “Project Freedom,” the effort is
set to begin on Monday, Middle East time and will focus mainly on getting
civilian ships flagged in countries not affiliated with the conflict out of the
contested waterway so they can “freely and ably get on with their business.”
“U.S. military support to Project Freedom
will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft,
multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members,” the U.S. Central
Command said shortly after Trump’s announcement.
Oil prices were volatile as investors
continued to assess President Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan. West Texas Intermediate futures
for July delivery fell 0.05% to $101.89 per barrel in the early hours of Monday
ET. International benchmark Brent
crude futures was 0.23% higher at $108.42 per barrel.
Other Asia-Pacific indexes were mostly
higher. The Kospi index
rose 4.44%, while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index gained 1.75%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.35%.
India’s Nifty 50 gained 0.78%.
Markets in Japan and China are closed for
a public holiday.
U.S. stock futures traded close to the
flatline Sunday night. S&P
500 futures added 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained
0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 100 points, or 0.2%.
On Friday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose to new
all-time intraday and closing highs. The broad market index rose 0.29%, while
the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 0.89%. The Dow bucked the trend,
however, slipping 152.87 points, or 0.31%.
Asia
markets live updates: Hang Seng Index, Kospi, ASX 200
Wall Street Week Ahead
May 03, 2026, 6:51 AM ET
Wall Street heads into a busy week with
investors focused on the April jobs report, a heavy slate of earnings, and
key corporate and macro events.
The labor market will take center stage
Friday, with economists expecting about 49K job additions and the unemployment
rate to hold at 4.3%. Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan
Officer Opinion Survey will offer insight into credit conditions, while ongoing
Fed commentary could shape expectations for policy.
Earnings activity is broad-based. Key
reports include Palantir (PLTR), AMD (AMD), Arm (ARM), Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), McDonald’s (MCD), and Airbnb (ABNB). Disney’s
results and outlook will be closely watched amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny
and streaming trends, while AMD and Arm updates could provide read-through
for AI demand.
Corporate events will also draw attention.
Citigroup (C) holds its
Investor Day, where management is expected to outline a long-term strategy
reset, while IBM’s Think conference and Anthropic’s developer event highlight
continued momentum in enterprise AI.
Elsewhere, China’s Labor Day holiday is
expected to support Macau casino stocks, and OPEC production data will remain
in focus.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
Oil prices mixed in choppy trade as Trump plans to
‘free’ ships stranded due to Mideast conflict
Published Sun, May 3 2026 8:48 PM EDT
Oil prices were mixed in choppy trade
Monday, as market participants assess U.S. President Donald Trump’s
announcement to “free” ships that have been trapped due to the closure of the
Strait of Hormuz, amid lingering tensions between Tehran and Washington.
July futures for international
benchmark Brent crude
were marginally lower at $101.94 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
for June were 0.15% at $108.33 per barrel.
As the Hormuz Strait continues to face a
blockade, traffic via the critical energy waterway that saw about a fifth of
the world’s energy supplies transit through it prior to the war, has come to a
near standstill.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade
Operations agency said Monday that a tanker was hit by projectiles north of the city of of
Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, underscoring the dangers for ships
navigating the Mideast region.
Trump said in his Truth Social post Sunday that the U.S. would attempt
to “free” stranded cargo ships affected by the Strait
of Hormuz closure since the start of the Iran war.
Dubbed “Project Freedom,” the effort will
focus mainly on getting civilian ships flagged in countries not affiliated with
the conflict out of the waterway so they can “freely and ably get on with their
business.” It is set to begin on Monday.
“U.S. military support to Project Freedom
will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft,
multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members,” the U.S. Central
Command said shortly after Trump’s announcement.
Traders will also be assessing OPEC+ agreeing to
an oil output increase of 188,000 barrels per day, in the cartel’s first
meeting since the exit of its key member, the United Arab Emirates.
Gaurav Ganguly, head of international
economics at Moody’s Analytics, warned of the impact of a prolonged Mideast
conflict on global economy on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia,” as oil
prices stay elevated: “It doesn’t take much from this point for the global
economy to sink into recession. We estimate something like $125 for Brent over
a sustained period of time will push the global economy into some sort of
recession.”
Oil
mixed as Trump plans to 'free' ships stranded due to Mideast conflict
OPEC+ announces 188,000 barrels-per-day output
increase in first meeting without UAE
Published Sun, May 3 2026 6:58 AM EDT Updated
Sun, May 3 2026 7:28 AM EDT
OPEC+ has agreed an increase in oil output
of 188,000 barrels per day, the cartel said on Sunday, as it pushes on with
production in the first meeting since the loss of its key member, the United
Arab Emirates.
The group of seven major oil producers
announced it would increase June production by slightly less than May’s output
hike of 206,000 bpd. Sunday’s figure excludes the United Arab Emirates share
of output, which officially departed OPEC on
May 1.
The seven countries included Saudi Arabia,
Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman.
“In their collective commitment to support
oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a
production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from the additional
voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023,” OPEC said in its statement.
Oil supply has been choked since the Iran
war began on February 28, as the Strait of Hormuz – a vital shipping route for
global oil and gas supplies – has remained effectively closed.
Oil prices fell Friday after Iran sent an
updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes again that a
settlement with the U.S. is still possible.
U.S. crude oil futures fell
3% to close at $101.94 per barrel. The international benchmark Brent crude lost nearly 2%
to settle at $108.17. Both are nearly 78% higher since the start of 2026.
More
OPEC+
announces 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase
Next, how to traduce the US Navy, yet another
reason Trump’s unfit for office.
Trump brags U.S. Navy acting "like
pirates" in blockade of Iranian ports
Source: Xinhua Editor: huaxia 2026-05-02
23:02:30
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Xinhua) -- U.S.
President Donald Trump on Friday bragged that the U.S. Navy acted "like
pirates" in its blockade of Iranian ports, as the war against Iran reached
a 60-day legal deadline.
"We took over the ship, we took over
the cargo, we took over the oil. It's a very profitable business," Trump
said at an event in Florida on Friday.
"We're like pirates. We're sort of
like pirates, but we are not playing games," Trump said.
Trump told lawmakers earlier on Friday
that the war against Iran has "terminated," an effort to quelch the
fight over the need for Congress to approve the conflict, Politico said.
Under the War Powers Resolution adopted in
1973, the U.S. president -- after notifying Congress of the use of military
force -- must terminate the action within 60 days, unless Congress authorizes
continued military action.
The United States and Israel launched
major combat operations against Iran on Feb. 28. The Trump administration
formally notified Congress on March 2 of the military action, meaning the
60-day legal deadline would expire on May 1.
Senior Iranian military official Mohammad
Jafar Asadi said on Saturday that a return to war was "likely,"
according to Iranian semi-official Fars news agency.
According to a statement released by the
U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Navy intercepted and boarded two oil
tankers in the Indian Ocean on April 20 and April 22, respectively. The tankers
were alleged to be transporting oil from Iran.
Trump brags U.S.
Navy acting "like pirates" in blockade of Iranian ports-Xinhua
Iran condemns Trump's "brazen" remarks
about seizure of Iranian vessels
Source: Xinhua Editor: huaxia 2026-05-03
10:22:00
TEHRAN, May 3 (Xinhua) -- Iran's Foreign
Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei on Saturday condemned U.S. President Donald
Trump's remarks that called the U.S. seizure of Iranian vessels
"piracy."
"The president of the United States
has openly described the unlawful seizure of Iranian vessels as 'piracy,'
brazenly boasting that 'we act like pirates,'" Baghaei said in an X post.
"This was no verbal slip. It was a
direct and damning admission of the criminal nature of their actions against
international maritime navigation," Baghaei added.
Trump on Friday bragged that the U.S. Navy
acted "like pirates" in its blockade of Iranian ports. "We took
over the ship, we took over the cargo, we took over the oil. It's a very
profitable business," Trump said at an event in Florida.
Baghaei called on the international
community, UN member states, and the UN secretary-general to firmly reject any
normalization of such "blatant violations" of international law.
More
Iran condemns
Trump's "brazen" remarks about seizure of Iranian vessels -Xinhua
Iranian media reveal some details on proposal sent
to U.S. via Pakistan
Source: Xinhua Editor: huaxia 2026-05-03
05:32:30
TEHRAN, May 2 (Xinhua) -- Iran has
submitted a 14-point counterproposal to the United States calling for a
permanent end to hostilities and a full withdrawal of U.S. forces from the
region, semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Saturday.
The plan was delivered through Pakistani
intermediaries in response to a nine-point U.S. proposal, said Tasnim.
While Washington's plan calls for a
two-month ceasefire, Tehran is pushing for a 30-day timeline to resolve key
issues, insisting that talks focus on "ending the war" rather than a
temporary truce, Tasnim reported.
Iran's demands include the withdrawal of
U.S. forces from areas near its borders and guarantees of non-aggression, along
with economic steps such as lifting a naval blockade, releasing frozen Iranian
assets, easing sanctions, and paying compensation.
The proposal also calls for an end to
hostilities across multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, and the establishment
of a new governing mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil
shipping route.
Iran is awaiting a formal response from
U.S. officials, the report said.
More
Iranian media
reveal some details on proposal sent to U.S. via Pakistan-Xinhua
How oil markets are weeks from 'tipping point' –
and what it means
2 May 2026
Oil stocks are dwindling to a critical
level as the crisis
in the Gulf continues,
with experts now warning global markets are weeks away from a “tipping point”
that will see prices soar beyond previous levels.
Prices have already
reached a record high this week as Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for
prices, rose by almost 7 per cent to more than $126 (£94) a barrel – the
highest level since 2022.
But traders and analysts told the Financial
Times that
global stocks of crude, gasoline, diesel and jet
fuel will hit a critical level by the end of May, which will push prices
up even further.
Frederic Lasserre, head of research at oil
traders Gunvor, told the newspaper they were no longer talking about months but
rather weeks before “huge pain”.
He said: “It goes beyond gasoline at the
pumps to industry shutting down – and you enter recession.
“The tipping point is clearly June. This
is the point at which something has to give.”
It’s a view backed by Amrita Sen, founder
of consultancy Energy Aspects, who said if the conflict continues until the end
of June, all stocks would be exhausted and then “essentially you can pick a
number when it comes to the oil price”.
Airline industry warning
The airline industry has already signalled
a significant change pending by mid-June, while for some the issue has already
come to a head.
Michael O’Leary, chief executive of
Ryanair, told The
Times airline
rivals were “desperately” searching for ways to mitigate the situation with
flight cancellations and consolidations, which could begin within weeks.
He said his company was in daily briefings
with all big oil suppliers and there is “a modest improvement in the supply
situation through to the end of May, early June” but he added that “nobody
would give us any undertakings what happens in mid-June or thereafter”.
US air carrier Spirit Airlines says it’s
going out of business after 34 years, ending operations immediately in the face
of rising jet fuel prices.
O’Leary’s comments come after it was
reported ministers are poised to give UK airlines permission to use a type of
fuel currently used only by US carriers.
Airlines in Britain and Europe use Jet A-1
fuel, while planes in the US use Jet A fuel. Both fuels can be used in any jet
aircraft and relaxing the rules could provide UK airlines with more options to
avoid cancelling flights.
----Food and energy take a hit
The Bank of England warned on Thursday
food and energy
prices will
be pushed up further by the Iran war this year.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey
said: “Where we go from here will depend on the size and duration of the shock
to energy prices itself driven by how the conflict in the Middle East evolves
and how those higher energy prices affect consumer prices in the United
Kingdom.
“The indirect effects on the inflation are
likely to be largest for food prices since food
production and distribution are energy intensive.”
In its worst-case scenario, the Bank of
England warned inflation could reach 6.2 per cent next year, with interest
rates peaking at 5.25 per cent.
Scott Walker, GB Potatoes chief executive,
told Sky News the way the industry works means the impact of
war-linked costs will have a longer term effect, with “inevitable” increases in
2027.
He said: “Down the line prices will have
to rise because we have a lot of costs coming.”
The majority of UK potato producers, he
said, work to annual growing contracts with their customers, giving certainty
over incomes and prices for the year ahead.
However, he cautioned 2027 contracts would
have to reflect a doubling of red diesel, used by agricultural vehicles, and
some fertiliser prices which have been hit by the blockade.
Rising costs for energy, cooking oil and
fish are already affecting prices, according to the National Federation of Fish
Fryers.
Andrew Crook, president of the National
Federation of Fish Fryers, told the BBC recently uncertainty
in the Middle East is “causing concern” in the industry.
Domestic energy bills are set to rise this
summer. The current bill for a household using a typical amount of gas and
electricity is £1,641. But the Bank of England has suggested this will rise
“close to £1,900” in July, as events in the Middle East play out.
More
How oil markets
are weeks from 'tipping point' – and what it means
In other news.
Trump says he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
Published Fri, May 1 2026 12:39 PM EDT Updated
Fri, May 1 2026 5:47 PM EDT
President Donald Trump said he
would increase tariffs charged to the European Union for cars and trucks to
25%, without saying what authority he would use to raise the levies.
“Based on the fact the European Union is
not complying with our fully agreed to Trade Deal, next week I will be
increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming
into the United States,” he wrote on Truth
Social on
Friday. “The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed
that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO
TARIFF.”
The Supreme Court ruled in
February that a large part of Trump’s tariff
agenda was
illegal. The president’s “reciprocal” tariffs were invoked using a novel
reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, but the
high court said in a 6-3 majority that the law that undergirds those import
duties “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.”
Shortly after the Supreme Court ruling,
Trump said he signed an executive order imposing a new 10% “global tariff” rate
to effectively replace the IEEPA duties, though those tariffs came with a
150-day time limit under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. He then said he
would increase the global rate to 15%.
The EU in February had warned that
its trade deal with the
U.S. could be in jeopardy after the new tariff rate was announced and postponed
its planned vote on the agreement.
The European Union said it is following
standard legislative practice and keeping the U.S. administration up to date.
“We maintain close contact with our
counterparts, including as we also seek clarity on US commitments,” a a
European Commission spokesperson said. “We remain fully committed to a
predictable, mutually beneficial transatlantic relationship. Should the US take
measures inconsistent with the Joint Statement, we will keep our options open
to protect EU interests.”
A White House official said in a statement
Friday that the EU has “failed to make substantial progress on their
agreed-upon commitments” under a trade agreement between the countries.
“The White House has always been clear
that the President reserves the right to adjust tariff rates if our trade deal
partners fail to abide by their commitments,” the official said.
The Trump administration last year
broadly implemented 25%
tariffs on
vehicles and certain auto parts imported into the U.S., citing national
security risks under Section 232. Those levies are still in place, and the
White House said Trump would increase the EU’s levies under Section 232.
The European automakers that could most be
impacted by a change in tariff rate would be Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen, which import a
large percentage of the vehicles they sell in the U.S. from their plants in
Europe.
Trump says he's
raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Food shortage nightmare as Iran war hits supplies of key ingredient
1 May 2026
The disruption to
supplies of fertiliser and its key ingredients due to the Iran war could cost up to 10 billion meals a week globally, the boss of one
of the world's biggest fertiliser producers has warned. Svein Tore Holsether,
chief executive of Yara, said that hostilities in the Gulf, which have blocked
shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are jeopardising global food production.
Reduced crop yields
resulting from lower fertiliser use could trigger a bidding war for food, he
warned, hitting the world's poorest countries hardest. Mr Holsether has
urged European nations to carefully consider the impact of a price war on the
"most vulnerable" in other countries. While the UK is unlikely
to face food shortages, higher costs for food producers are expected to
start showing up in weekly food bills over the next few months.
"We're up to half a
million tons of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced in the world right now
because of the situation we are in," Mr Holsether told the BBC.
"What does that mean
for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be
produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers."
He explained that not
applying nitrogen fertiliser to crops would reduce some yields by as much as
50% in the first season.
The destinations that
would see the "most immediate impact" of this would be in Asia, South East Asia, Africa
and Latin America. Parts of the world where there is already
under-fertilisation, such as several countries in sub-Saharan Africa, could see an even larger impact on crop yields, he added,
saying "significant drops" were possible.
As planting seasons vary
across the globe, the consequences of fertiliser shortages in Asia will not be
reflected in food prices until the end of the year, when harvests that should
have been planted this spring come in smaller than expected, or not at all,
according to analysts.
According to the United Nations, around a third of the
world's fertilisers - such as urea, potash, ammonia and phosphates - normally
pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of fertiliser has soared by 80%
since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
In the UK, the Food and
Drink Federation (FDF) recently forecast that food inflation could reach 10% by
December. The Bank of England this week said it
expected food price inflation to rise to 4.6% in
September and could rise further later in the year.
The UN World Food
Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push
45 million additional people into acute hunger in 2026. In Asia and the
Pacific, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24% - the largest relative
increase of any region.
Food shortage nightmare as Iran war hits supplies of key ingredient
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Fuel price volatility driving demand for hybrid and battery power
on mining sites
1 May 2026
Fuel price volatility is increasing
pressure on operating costs across mining projects, particularly at remote
or off-grid sites that rely on diesel-only generators for temporary and
auxiliary power.
Exposure to fluctuating fuel prices,
potential supply constraints and emissions reduction requirements is prompting
operators to reassess how site power is delivered, with hybrid and battery
systems gaining traction as more resilient and cost-effective options.
“We’re seeing strong interest in
alternative power generation across mining and industrial projects of all
sizes,” Coates power & HVAC manager Kurt
Edwards said. “Fuel volatility is accelerating conversations that were
already happening, particularly around cost certainty, fuel logistics and
long duration site power.”
The cost of diesel reliance
Diesel generators have long been the
default solution for off-grid and temporary power on mining operations.
However, their operating costs are directly tied to fuel
consumption, leaving operators exposed to price volatility and the
logistical challenges of transporting, storing and handling diesel –
particularly at remote sites.
Temporary site infrastructure such as
accommodation, offices and amenities, often operate continuously from early
works through to production and maintenance phases, making them some of the
most consistent energy users across a mine site and ideal candidates for a
hybrid power alternative.
For example, a 60 kilovolt-ampere diesel
generator supplying power to a site compound can consume up to 56,064 litres of
diesel per year, producing approximately 151 tonnes of greenhouse gas
emissions.
Hybrid power systems – which
combine diesel generation with battery storage and, in some cases,
solar – reduce this reliance by optimising when and how generators
operate.
A hybrid configuration, such as
a Battery Energy Storage System paired with a 45 kilovolt-ampere
generator, can:
• Reduce diesel consumption by up
to 21,792 litres per year
• Cut emissions by approximately 59
tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions
“These systems fundamentally change how
diesel is used on site,” Edwards said.
“Instead of running continuously, the
generator becomes a support asset. That delivers immediate fuel savings,
reduces refuelling requirements and improves efficiency without reducing
reliability.”
Efficiency, reliability and cost control
Beyond fuel savings, hybrid power
systems provide operational advantages that are particularly relevant to
mining environments:
• Improved efficiency at low loads,
where traditional generators often underperform
• Reduced maintenance and
servicing, due to lower generator runtime
• Reduced fuel handling and
associated safety risks
• Greater flexibility, with the
ability to integrate solar or external power sources
Battery energy storage
also provides greater resilience by smoothing load variability and
reducing reliance on continuous diesel operation across long project durations.
Portable battery power systems for shutdowns and outages
While hybrid systems are well suited to
supporting base site loads, portable battery systems are increasingly being
used to eliminate diesel generators altogether for task-based power during
shutdowns, outages and maintenance works.
Shutdown environments are often
characterised by isolated power, multiple mobile work fronts and
tight schedules, where delays caused by lack of access to power can quickly
impact critical paths. In these scenarios, running diesel generators for small
or intermittent loads can be inefficient, noisy and operationally cumbersome.
Portable battery systems provide a
generator-free alternative for these conditions.
More
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate,
secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
John Maynard Keynes
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