Baltic
Dry Index. 2991 +159 Brent Crude 101.86
Spot Gold 4696 Spot Silver 78.19
US 2 Year Yield 3.87 +0.06
US Federal Debt. 39.210 trillion
US GDP 32.095 trillion.
There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and
those who don’t know they don’t know.
John Kenneth Galbraith (Plus AI trading programs.)
More dodgy betting on the war in the District of Crooks, who’d have thought it? War, it turns out, is very profitable for a few in America.
In the stock casinos, the GREAT AI Bubble, bubbles on. What could possibly go wrong?
Japan’s Nikkei 225 tops 62,000 for the first time
as Asia markets look past Trump’s Iran threats
Published Wed, May 6 2026 7:45 PM EDT
Japan stocks rose more than 5% on
Thursday, with the benchmark Nikkei
225 hitting 62,000 for the first time as Asia-Pacific markets rallied
despite renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The broader regional advance came after
President Donald Trump warned
Iran would be bombed “at a much higher level” if it failed to agree to
a peace deal.
The Nikkei 225 advanced 5%, led by gains
in basic materials, technology and financial stocks. Shares of index
heavyweight Softbank surged
more than 13%.
Electronics company Ibiden was the top
performer, climbing 17%, while manufacturing and metals company Mitsui Kinzoku gained
16%. Renesas Electronics also
added 13%, and chemical and materials firm Tosoh Corporation soared
12%.
The Topix also advanced 2.37%. In
Australia, the S&P/ASX
200 rose 0.9%.
South Korea’s Kospi reversed gains,
falling 0.68%, while the small-cap Kosdaq Index slid 0.56%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index jumped 1.47%
while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged 0.38% higher.
Trump’s fresh threats came as reports
suggested Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement to end the war.
The president in a Truth Social post said the U.S. military offensive
known as Operation Epic Fury “will be at an end” if Iran “agrees to give what
has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption.”
If that happened, the U.S. naval blockade
of Iranian ports in the Gulf of Oman would “allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN
TO ALL, including Iran,” Trump wrote.
West Texas Intermediate futures for
June was 0.92% higher at $95.95 per barrel as of 7:19 p.m. ET.
U.S. stock futures were little
changed. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both slid
about 0.1%. Futures tied to
the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 35 points, or less than 0.1%.
Overnight in the U.S., stocks rose
following developments in
the Middle East.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.46% to
7,365.12, while the Nasdaq
Composite gained 2.02% and ended at 25,838.94. Both indexes touched
new highs and closed at records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added
612.34 points, or 1.24%, to close at 49,910.59.
Asia-Pacific
markets today: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
SoftBank shares surge over 16% as Japan
tech-fueled rally lifts Nikkei 225 to record highs
Published Wed, May 6 2026 10:40 PM EDT
Shares in Japanese tech-focused investment
giant SoftBank
Group soared 16.5% Thursday, amid a broader tech-fueled rally that saw
Japan’s Nikkei 225 surge
to record highs.
Japanese markets reopened after an
extended holiday and investors rushed to catch up with a global artificial
intelligence-fueled rally, sending Japanese tech names higher.
While SoftBank is on course to record its
best day since 2020, if gains hold, chip-testing equipment maker Advantest rose nearly
7.8%, while semiconductor equipment supplier Tokyo Electron surged
9.2%. Chip solutions provider Renesas Electronics jumped
13.8%.
The rally came after Wall Street’s
tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite hit another record overnight, with U.S. artificial
intelligence-linked stocks surging. Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. rose
18.6%, Arm Holdings advanced 13% and server maker Super Micro Computer Inc.
soared 24.5%.
“Japan was shut for the back end of Golden
Week while global risk assets ripped, so today’s move is the Nikkei pricing in
three sessions in one,” said Global X ETFs’ investment strategist Billy Leung.
“SPX hit a fresh record and Nasdaq made
another all-time high while Tokyo was closed, led by semis and AI names,” Leung
said, adding that Advantest and Tokyo Electron are “the most liquid Japanese
expressions of that AI semi trade.”
He added that easing geopolitical concerns
also helped sentiment, with oil prices falling on signs of de-escalation
between the U.S. and Iran.
SoftBank’s gains were amplified by its
close ties to Arm and artificial intelligence firm OpenAI.
“SoftBank is effectively the listed proxy for OpenAI and Arm,” Leung said.
The move also reflected growing investor
optimism around data center infrastructure demand tied to AI inference and
agentic AI systems.
Rolf Bulk, head of semiconductor and
infrastructure at The Futurum Group, said the rally reflects growing optimism
around the long-term demand outlook for AI infrastructure.
“I think it’s partly a continuation rally
on the back of the strong AI-related share performance in the U.S. yesterday,
as well as a reaction to AMD’s quarterly report, which has strong read-across
for Arm,” Bulk said.
“CPUs are important for AI inference
workloads; they handle for instance agent sandboxes, orchestration servers,
database and API layers. With inference and agentic AI demand increasing,
datacenter CPUs have become one of the key bottlenecks in the AI infrastructure
build-out.”
Bulk pointed to AMD’s latest forecast that
the total addressable market for datacenter CPUs could reach $120 billion by
2030, growing more than 35% annually.
SoftBank
shares surge as Japan tech stock-fueled rally lifts Nikkei to record high
AI Models Lose Money in Trading Contests
May 6, 2026 at 11:41 PM GMT+1
Yesterday, the bad news for finance
professionals was that Anthropic had turned its gaze to their patch with
software that may make many
on Wall Street redundant. But today, there was a bit of a reprieve.
Artificial intelligence isn’t all it’s cracked up to be when
it comes to replacing traders. Not yet anyway.
Across a series of contests between the
world’s leading AI models, the verdict so far is unflattering. Most of the
systems lose money. They trade too much. They make wildly different decisions
when given identical instructions. And no one knows if these shortcomings will
fade with more powerful iterations—or if they reveal something fundamental
about the gap between large language models and how markets actually
work. —David
E. Rovella
Why AI May Not Be Wall Street-Ready: Evening Briefing Americas - Bloomberg
Online sleuths are raising more red flags around
suspiciously timed Iran-war oil trades
May 6, 2026, 5:24 PM BST
Oil prices have plunged on reports that
the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal, a development that paid off big for
traders that happened to be shorting crude just ahead of the news.
Data flagged by the The Kobeissi Letter
shows that nearly $1 billion of crude oil shorts were opened roughly an hour
before an Axios report that the US and Iran were nearing a deal
to end the war.
The Kobeissi Letter outlined its analysis
in a Wednesday morning post:
"At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000
contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.This is
equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for
3:40 AM ET.At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is
"close" to a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran
War.By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts
gaining approximately +$125 million."
Brent
oil was down as much as 11.9%, while WTI oil dropped more than 13%. Around 10:20 a.m. Brent
and WTI were down roughly 7% at $101.93 and $95.06, respectively.
The plunge reflects investor optimism that
the war is nearing an end on the reported agreement. It would also be a
windfall for anyone betting on the downward move in crude.
Former JPMorgan quant head Marko Kolanovic reacted to oil price moves on the Axios
report, saying "Who knows what happens next in blatantly
manipulated markets."
Eric Nuttall, a partner and senior
portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, commented on the analysis from The
Kobeissi Letter, saying,
"We continue to encourage energy investors to focus on "the day
after", as day-to-day volatility may be intentionally induced for
nefarious reasons."
The trades highlighted by market watchers
online are the latest example of well-timed bets tied to developments in the
war. A $950 million oil trade on April 7 and a $760 million bet a week later
were put on just minutes before breaking news that moved the price of crude.
Still, as has become common during the
ceasfire that's held since early April, conflicting signals on the likelihood
of a durable peace have emerged on Wednesday as markets positioned for an end to the war.
Market
Pros Flag Well-Timed Oil Shorts Made Before the Iran Peace News - Business
Insider
In other news.
Rising tensions and war-driven "demand
destruction"
6 May 2026
It seemed like good news when the US Navy
managed to escort two American-flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, the Brent crude oil price didn’t rise by much, which probably
counts as a success.
But it’s just as easy to cast this as bad news.
First, it’s only two ships. In normal times, there are at least a hundred
transits a day.
Second, the Iranians responded with fresh missile and drone attacks on the
United Arab Emirates and said they were “just getting started”.
Third, the US said none of this was a ceasefire violation. The Trump
administration evidently prefers deadlock to escalation.
This was seemingly confirmed on Wednesday morning, when Trump backed away from
the scheme to escort the ship.
Normally, in a peace negotiation, patience is a virtue. But if Hormuz isn’t
unblocked soon, things are going to worsen very quickly.
We’ve got by so far on a combination of oil stockpile drawdowns and alternative
sources of supply. These tactics are nearing their use-by date.
What happens next? Economists call it “demand destruction”, which sounds a bit
technical. The reality is that oil prices rise until we stop wanting to buy
oil. Or there’s fuel rationing, which gets to the same result in a different
way.
I would say, "Fasten your seatbelts," but we might not be doing much
of that. The 13,000 flights that airlines have cancelled this month might be
only the beginning.
If nothing changes in the Persian Gulf over the coming weeks, factories will
begin curtailing production. Supermarket shelves will thin out; prices will
climb.
The trouble is that in Trump’s public utterances, he offers just one alternative:
restart the bombing. That isn’t likely to avoid the crunch either.
I’ve been pretty pessimistic about this conflict from the start. I really hope
there’s still a way for the world to prove me wrong.
Iran has hit far more US military assets than
reported, satellite images show
May 6, 2026
Iranian airstrikes have damaged or
destroyed at least 228 structures or pieces of equipment at U.S. military sites
across the Middle East since the war began, hitting hangars, barracks, fuel
depots, aircraft and key radar, communications and air defense equipment,
according to a Washington Post analysis of satellite imagery. The amount of
destruction is far larger than what has been publicly acknowledged by the U.S.
government or previously reported.
The threat of air attacks rendered some of
the U.S. bases in the region too dangerous to staff at normal levels, and
commanders moved most of the personnel from these sites out of the range of
Iranian fire at the start of the war, officials have said.
Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, seven service members have died in
strikes on U.S. facilities in the region — six in Kuwait and one in Saudi
Arabia — and more than 400 troops have suffered injuries as of late April, the
U.S. military said. While most of the wounded returned to duty within days, at
least 12 suffered injuries that military officials classified as serious,
according to U.S. officials who, among others, spoke on the condition of
anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Satellite imagery of the Middle East is
unusually difficult to acquire at present. Two of the largest commercial
providers, Vantor and Planet, have complied with requests from the U.S.
government — their biggest customer — to limit, delay or indefinitely withhold
the publication of imagery of the region while the war is ongoing, making it
difficult or impossible to assess Iran’s counterstrikes. Those restrictions began less than two weeks into the war.
Iranian state-affiliated news agencies,
however, have from the start regularly published high-resolution satellite
imagery on their social media accounts that claimed to document damage to U.S.
sites.
For this examination — one of the first
comprehensive public accounts of the damage to U.S. facilities in the region —
The Post reviewed more than 100 high-resolution Iranian-released satellite
images. The Post verified the authenticity of 109 of the those images by
comparing them with lower-resolution imagery from the European Union’s
satellite system, Copernicus, as well as high-resolution images from Planet
where available. The Post excluded 19 Iranian images from the damage analysis
because comparisons with the Copernicus imagery were inconclusive. No Iranian
imagery was found to have been manipulated.
In a separate search of Planet imagery,
Post reporters found 10 damaged or destroyed structures that were not
documented in the imagery released by Iran. In all, The Post found 217
structures and 11 pieces of equipment that were damaged or destroyed at 15 U.S.
military sites in the region.
More
Iran has hit far more
US military assets than reported, satellite images show
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
Wetherspoons
warns on profits due to ‘substantial’ cost increases
Wed,
6 May 2026 at 8:03 am BST
The
boss of pub giant JD Wetherspoon has warned it could miss profit guidance after
a jump in costs.
It
came as the firm, which has 794 managed pubs and 21 franchise sites, revealed
slower sales growth over the latest quarter.
Chairman
and founder Tim Martin said the group is among hospitality operators to have
seen “substantial increases in costs” recently.
He
added that this could therefore result in “profits slightly below market
expectations”.
Wetherspoons
previously said increases in National Insurance contributions and wages would
cost the business around £60 million per year.
It
is also facing an extra £1.6 million in tax this year through the Extended
Producer Responsibility packaging levy.
On
Wednesday, Wetherspoons also reported that like-for-like sales grew by 3.4% in
the 13 weeks to April 2026, compared with a year earlier.
Like-for-like
sales had risen by 4.8% over the six months to the end of January.
More
Wetherspoons warns
on profits due to ‘substantial’ cost increases - Yahoo News UK
Beef prices are near record levels. The DOJ wants to know if something
shady is afoot.
Four companies
control more than 85% of the beef-processing market, acting attorney general
notes
By Bill Peters Published: May
4, 2026 at 3:44 p.m. ET
The summer grilling
season, smaller cattle herds, droughts, wildfires, processing-plant closures
and other supply disruptions have helped push meat prices to record highs this
year. Now, the U.S. government is investigating whether corporate consolidation
is also at play.
Acting Attorney General
Todd Blanche on Monday confirmed that the Department of Justice was looking
into possible antitrust violations in the U.S. cattle and beef industries and
said the government would be announcing a settlement that would “directly affect”
the prices of chicken, pork, turkey and other meats this week.
The government made the
announcement as consumers continue to see high prices at grocery stores and gas
stations. In March, the average price of ground beef in U.S. cities was around
$6.70 a pound, according to government data — just below highs seen earlier in
the year.
“In the beef industry,
the big four processors control over 85% of the beef-processing market,”
Blanche said at a press conference on Monday.
“Multiple plant closures
across the country, the current market structure and high concentration in the
industry indicate anticompetitive activity,” he added.
Secretary of Agriculture
Brooke Rollins said those four companies — Brazilian industry giant JBS;
National Beef, which is controlled by a Brazilian company; Cargill; and Tyson
Foods — had gotten bigger due to consolidation. The level of concentration in the
cattle-processing market, she noted, stood at just 25% in 1977. Those companies
did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“Together, these
companies operate through dozens of subsidiary businesses, creating a landscape
that leaves many of our cattle producers with limited marketing options,”
Rollins said in a post on X.
She said cattle herds
were at lows not seen since the 1950s and that the industry had lost more than
100,000 ranches in the last 10 years.
“For some ranchers this
means less marketing opportunities, complicating an already challenging
marketplace,” she added.
---- Shares of Tyson were up 4.1% on Monday, after the company topped
expectations with its quarterly results and raised its adjusted operating
income outlook for the year, helped by increased interest in protein-focused diets.
“Animal protein remains
top of mind for consumers and continues to gain momentum as a foundational part
of a healthy diet,” Tyson CEO Donnie King said during the company’s earnings
call on Monday. “We are directly tied to and stand to benefit from this long-term
trend.”
Beef prices were up 11.5%
in the latest quarter, the company disclosed.
Beef
prices are near record levels. The DOJ wants to know if something shady is
afoot. - MarketWatch
Andrew Bailey raises
alarm over ‘shadow bank’ risk
Private
credit market has not been tested by economic downturn, warns Bank of England
Governor
Published 06 May
2026 6:55am BST
Andrew Bailey has raised the
alarm about a potential “shadow banking” crisis that could send shock waves
through the global financial system.
The Financial Stability
Board (FSB), which is chaired by the Bank of England Governor, warned in a new
report that traditional banks, insurers and pension funds had become
potentially dangerously intertwined with the $2tn (£1.4tn) private credit
market, often dubbed shadow banking.
The shadow banking
industry is where companies borrow from funds and private equity houses rather
than banks. It has expanded rapidly in recent years as regulators around the
world have tightened the rules governing mainstream banking.
However, the FSB, which
works with central banks and governments around the world, warned that the
private credit market had not been tested by a severe economic downturn,
meaning any shock could result in unexpected consequences throughout the
financial system.
John Schindler, the
secretary general of the FSB, warned that private credit “could
amplify stress in adverse scenarios, posing broader risks to financial
stability”.
He added that it was
difficult to monitor the true risks posed by the sector because data was so
patchy. Mr Schindler said there were “significant data challenges preventing an
accurate assessment of the total outstanding size of private credit markets and
of the vulnerabilities that this sector contains.”
The warning came a day
after HSBC announced a $400m hit tied to the collapse of Market Financial Solutions (MFS), a British
shadow bank that collapsed amid allegations of fraud this year.
HSBC said the loss came
after it backed another institution thought to have lent to MFS, highlighting
how risk can spread throughout the financial system.
More
Andrew Bailey raises alarm over ‘shadow bank’ risk
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
The future is EV or maybe not.
Nissan Leaf owners sue over battery fire risk and claim recall fix
still leaves cars unsafe
May 5, 2026
Remember last year’s Nissan Leaf U.S. recall that included nearly 45,000 vehicles posing a
potential battery fire risk?
It looks like Canadian owners from the
province of Quebec have grown tired of waiting for an effective fix from the
automaker so they filed a class action suit against Nissan Canada.
Lawsuit Alleges Nissan's Promised Software Fix Cannot Solve the
Problem
The lawsuit alleges Leaf EVs built for
the 2019-2022 model years—the exact same years as those included in the October
2025 recall—are equipped with defective high-voltage batteries that can cause
fires.
Despite the recall, the lawsuit alleges
that the risk of melting components and battery fires remains. According
to CarComplaints, the class action lawsuit includes
“all persons in Quebec who own, purchased, lease and/or leased one or more of
the Subject Vehicles, namely the 2019–2022 Nissan Leaf vehicles equipped with a
Level 3 quick charging port.”
The Leaf vehicles included in the suit
include 2019-2022 Nissan Leafs equipped
with both the standard 40-kWh or long-range 62-kWh lithium-ion battery packs.
The packs are allegedly prone to overheating and suffering short circuits,
which can cause melting of the charging components, electrical damage and
fires.
The problem is aggravated by Level 3 DC fast charging via the CHAdeMo connector. The class action
lawsuit argues that the main problem is excessive lithium deposits on the
battery’s anode, something that cannot be remedied by simple software updates
Nissan has promised but is yet to deliver. Furthermore, the lawsuit alleges
that Leaf high-voltage battery cells are defective and recalls issued by Nissan
will not help.
Plaintiffs Calling on Nissan to Replace the Batteries or Buy Back
the Cars
According to the plaintiff who sued,
Nissan offers only software updates to monitor the Leaf batteries’ state of
charge and possible overheating incidents. And because Level 3 fast charging
aggravates the existing problem, Nissan has warned customers not to charge the
vehicles with fast charging via the CHAdeMO connectors. But since
Nissan Leaf customers paid for fast charging capability, they are obviously
frustrated that they cannot use the feature until the vehicles get the promised
software updates. The plaintiff complains that fast charging is a key reason
why consumers purchase or lease the Nissan Leaf, and by not providing that,
Nissan hasn’t kept its end of the bargain.
In conclusion, the class action lawsuit
claims the only way to repair the affected Leaf EVs is to replace the defective
high-voltage batteries, or for Nissan to buy back the vehicles. The class
action lawsuit was filed in the Superior Court of Quebec of the District of
Montreal Canada and is titled B.S. v Nissan Canada Inc., et al.
It’s worth noting that a similar class
action suit was filed in California against Nissan North America over defects
in the charging system of 2019-2022 Nissan Leaf vehicles. Brought on behalf of
multiple owners and lessees of the affected Leaf EVs, the lawsuit (Proudfoot et al. v. Nissan North America, Inc) alleged that Nissan was aware of the battery
defect before the vehicles were sold.
Nissan Leaf owners sue over battery fire risk and claim recall fix still
leaves cars unsafe
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Then came the second Amsterdam discovery, although the principle
was known elsewhere. Bank deposits...did not need to be left idly in the bank.
They could be lent. The bank then got interest. The borrower then had a deposit
that he could spend. But the original deposit still stood to the credit of the
original depositor. That too could be spent. Money, spendable money, had been
created. Let no one rub his or her eyes. It's still being done-every day. The
creation of money by a bank is as simple as this, so simple, I've often said,
that the mind is slightly repelled.
John Kenneth Galbraith
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