Baltic
Dry Index. 3092 -59 Brent Crude 109.85
Spot Gold 4544 Spot Silver 76.58
US 2 Year Yield 4.07 -02
US Federal Debt. 39.260 trillion
US GDP 32.132 trillion.
"China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world."
Napoleon, attributed.
Thankfully, renewed Persian Gulf war was postponed by President Trump, blaming it on the leaders of Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Well if he says so, I suppose, just don’t say TACO.
Oil prices eased slightly.
In the stock casinos, few noticed.
Trump says he’s postponing ‘scheduled attack of
Iran tomorrow’ at Middle East leaders’ request
Published Mon, May 18 2026 3:09 PM EDT
President Donald Trump said Monday he
is calling off a plan to attack Iran on
Tuesday after the heads of three regional powers in the Middle East asked him
to “hold off.”
Trump, in a Truth Social post, said he has informed U.S. military
leaders “that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow” in
light of the requests from Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Saudi Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman and United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin
Zayed Al Nahyan.
There had been no clear indication prior
to Trump’s post that the U.S. was preparing to strike Iran on Tuesday,
officially scrapping its tattered ceasefire with Iran. Trump had told the New York Post in an interview earlier Monday that Iran
knows “what’s going to be happening soon,” though he declined to provide
details.
More
Trump
says he's postponing Iran attack at Middle East leaders' request
Asia markets trade mixed as oil eases after Trump
delays planned Iran strike
Published Mon, May 18 2026 7:46 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Tuesday
as oil prices, while elevated, eased slightly following news that
President Donald Trump was
postponing a scheduled attack on Iran.
International Brent crude futures for
July delivery fell 2.04% at $109.81 per barrel as of 12:14 a.m. ET. West Texas Intermediate futures for
June was 1.12% lower at $107.44 per barrel.
Investors were assessing Japan’s
first-quarter GDP data, which showed the economy grew
at an annualized 2.1% in the first three months of the year. The
growth was sharply higher than the Reuters-polled analysts’ average estimate of
1.7%, and against the 1.3% in the previous quarter. These figures do not
capture the full impact of the Iran war, which started at the end of February.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gave up early
gains and was 0.45% lower, while the Topix added 0.54%.
A summit meeting between Japan’s Prime
Minister Sanae Takaichi and South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung later today
will also be in focus. South Korea’s Kospi extended its early losses, falling
3.12%, while the small-cap Kosdaq dropped 3.32%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.05%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index declined
0.52% while Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng index added 0.41%.
Standard Chartered’s Hong
Kong-listed shares gained 2.54% after the lender raised its 2028 return target to 15%, up by 3
percentage points from 2025. The bank also plans to reduce its corporate
functions roles by 15% by 2030.
India’s Nifty 50 rose 0.44%. Shares of
companies affiliated with Gautam Adani rose after the U.S. dropped
fraud charges against the Indian billionaire. Adani Enterprises rose
1.89%, while Adani
Ports and Adani
Green added 0.36% and 1.23%, respectively.
Trump said in a Truth Social post that U.S. military leaders were
informed to call off a “scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow” after requests from
the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“A Deal will be made, which will be very
acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the
Middle East, and beyond. This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR
WEAPONS FOR IRAN!,” Trump added.
However, Trump cautioned that he has
informed his military leaders “to be prepared to go forward with a full, large
scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable
Deal is not reached.”
Despite the fragile ceasefire between the
U.S. and Iran, the vital Strait of Hormuz remains closed by Tehran, while the
U.S. continues to blockade Iranian ports.
“As the Middle East conflict enters its
third month, there is little prospect of a swift and durable settlement between
the U.S. and Iran and with it the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,”
Moody’s said in a note.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 were
up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100
futures rose 0.2%. Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 25 points, or 0.05%.
During Monday’s regular session, the broad
market S&P 500 benchmark
dropped 0.07% to end at 7,403.05, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.51% and closed
at 26,090.73. It was the second straight day of declines for both indexes.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average closed up 159.95 points, or 0.32%, at 49,686.12.
Asia markets today: asx, sensex, nikkei, kospi, hang seng, csi 300
Oil prices fall as Trump postpones Iran strike,
easing supply disruption fears
Published Mon, May 18 2026 8:40 PM EDT
Oil prices fell Tuesday after U.S.
President Donald Trump said
he would postpone a planned military strike on Iran following requests from key
Middle Eastern leaders, easing fears of an imminent escalation that could
disrupt global crude supplies.
International benchmark Brent crude futures for
July delivery fell more than 2% to trade at $109.15 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate futures
declined 1.27% to $107.28 per barrel.
Trump said on Monday that he shelved plans
for a “scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow” following requests from the leaders
of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Before his comments on Truth Social, there
had been little public indication that Washington was preparing imminent
military action against Iran, which would effectively end a fragile
ceasefire struck on April 8.
Earlier Monday, Trump told the New York
Post that Iran knows “what’s going to be happening soon,” though he did not
elaborate.
Axios reported that Trump had been
weighing renewed military action after Tehran’s latest proposal in talks aimed
at ending the conflict fell short of expectations.
Speaking at a White House event later in
the day, Trump said, “we were getting ready to do a very major attack
tomorrow.”
“I put it off for a little while,
hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while” because “we’ve had
very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” he said.
ING said oil markets are continuing to
price in persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East, noting that hopes
that China would help broker progress during recent Trump-Xi talks failed to
materialize.
Analysts from the banking and financial
services firm said some shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has
resumed, including several crude tankers and a Vietnamese-bound Iraqi oil
shipment, though flows remain well below normal levels and could deteriorate
quickly.
“The ongoing supply disruptions mean the
market has had to rely largely on inventory and alternative supply, where
possible,” they wrote.
Oil
prices fall as Trump postpones Iran strike, easing supply disruption fears
In other news, yet another Beijing meeting.
Has Beijing replaced Washington?
Since both Putin and Xi speak English, I
wonder which language they will use?
Russia’s Putin to meet China’s Xi in Beijing from
May 19-20, Beijing and Moscow say
Published Sat, May 16 2026 5:26 AM EDT
Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet
his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing
from May 19-20th, Moscow and Beijing said on Saturday.
The meeting will take place less than a
week after U.S. President Donald Trump’s
meeting with Xi in
Beijing, the second time the leaders of the two largest economies have met in
less than a year.
“The Russian President’s visit is
timed to coincide with the 25th anniversary
of the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly
Cooperation, which serves as the basis for interstate
relations,” Putin’s office said in a statement.
The two leaders “will discuss current
bilateral matters, ways to further strengthen the comprehensive
partnership and strategic cooperation between the Russian Federation
and the People’s Republic of China, and exchange views
on key international and regional matters,” the Kremlin said.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the
upcoming meeting in
a one-line post on X.
Russia is one of the world’s biggest oil
producers, while China is among the largest buyers of fossil fuels.
Russia's Putin to
meet China's Xi in Beijing from May 19-20
Xi Travels Less but the World Is Coming to Beijing
May 6th, 2026
In U.S.–China strategic competition,
diplomacy is more than just ceremony. It is how leaders allocate scarce
political attention toward their key priorities. Leaders cannot be everywhere
or do everything, so where they go, whom they host, and how often they travel
all reveal priorities that political statements and strategy documents can
obscure.
By this measure, Beijing and Washington
are pursuing different diplomatic strategies. Since Xi Jinping took office in
2013, and especially since the COVID pandemic in 2020, U.S. presidents have
traveled abroad more often than Xi has. But Xi has visited a wider range of
countries, and Beijing has welcomed far more foreign leaders than Washington.
The contrast is especially striking across the Global South, where Chinese
diplomacy has often been broader, more regular, and in many regions more
ambitious.
---- The chart below shows that, since 2013, Xi
has made 126 visits to 72 countries. Over the same period, Barack Obama, Donald
Trump, and Joe Biden made 146 visits to 56 countries. In other words, U.S.
presidents have traveled more often, but Xi has reached more places.
More
Xi Travels Less
but the World Is Coming to Beijing | Asia Society
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians.
China’s economy loses steam in April as retail sales hit 40-month low
Published Sun, May 17 2026 10:12 PM EDT Updated May
18, 2026
China’s economy stumbled in April with consumption,
industrial output and investment growth missing expectations as the fallout
from the Iran war dampened momentum in the world’s second-largest economy.
Retail sales grew 0.2% last month from a year ago, sharply
missing economists’ forecast for a 2% rise and slowing from 1.7% in March,
according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That
marked the weakest growth since December 2022, according to Wind data, as China
started to loosen its Covid curbs.
China’s industrial output jumped 4.1% in April from
a year earlier, decelerating from 5.7%
growth in March, and undershooting expectations for a 5.9% rise in
a Reuters poll.
Urban fixed asset investment, including real estate
and infrastructure, contracted 1.6% in the first four months this year from a
year earlier, compared with expectations for 1.6% growth. In the January to
March period, urban investment had expanded
1.7% year on year.
The investment decline was owed to the property
sector, with flows plunging 13.7% this year as of April, deepening from the
11.2% drop in the first three months. Investment in infrastructure and
manufacturing grew 4.3% and 1.2%, respectively, in the first four months.
Property investment in the country has nearly
halved since its peak in 2021. Further declines in home prices would deepen the
hit to household balance sheets, said Lizzi Lee, a fellow at Center for China
Analysis, noting that the property downturn has already inflicted significant
job losses across construction and related sectors.
Separate data released Monday showed China’s new
home prices extended their decline in April, albeit at a
slower pace, as the multi-year property downturn drags on.
The strong exports helped to mitigate the
weaknesses in domestic demand, but not enough to fully offset it, said Zhiwei
Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
China’s exports gathered pace in April as factories
scrambled to meet
surging overseas demand from foreign buyers stockpiling
goods as the Iran fanned fears of higher input costs. Exports expanded 14.1%,
sharply beating estimates of a 7.9% growth.
Urban unemployment rate edged lower to 5.2%, from
5.4% in March, data released Monday showed.
While Chinese exports to the U.S. have seen a drop,
Washington said Sunday that Beijing had agreed to purchase at least $17 billion of
American agricultural products in 2026 and in the following two years, as well
as an initial 200 jets from Boeing,
following a high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and
China’s Xi Jinping last week.
The two countries also agreed to set up a
U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to address
concerns over market access and expand trade under a tariff-reduction
framework.
The Trump administration appears to be backing away
from its earlier stance of “explicitly demanding deep structural reform” of
China’s economy — a push to shift growth away from exports toward domestic
consumption, said Tommy Xie, head of Asia macro research at OCBC Bank.
Washington and Beijing increasingly understand that
a full-scale decoupling, or an “uncontrolled conflict” could impose enormous
costs on their own economies, Xie said in a note on Monday.
More
China's
economy loses steam in April as retail sales hit 40-month low
The top foreign holders of U.S. debt may soon dump Treasury bonds and
bring their money back home, potentially spiking borrowing costs
May 17, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
For decades, Japanese government bonds offered
minuscule returns, forcing investors there to look abroad, especially at U.S.
financial markets.
Japanese investors now collectively own about $1
trillion in Treasuries and are the largest foreign holders of U.S. debt.
But that could change soon as the Bank of Japan has
been hiking rates while hotter inflation has lifted JGB yields, which are now
looking more attractive and emerging as an alternative to Treasury bonds.
Yields for 10- and 30-year JGBs have soared to the
highest levels since the 1990s, and the central bank is expected to tighten for
the fifth time since 2024 as the Iran war sends oil prices higher.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is seen
boosting government spending as part of her efforts to revive growth and offset
the oil shock, adding to inflationary trends.
Of course, U.S. yields have also risen as inflation
picks up. But the Federal Reserve’s next move is still expected to be a rate
cut, though that timeline is getting pushed back further, perhaps into 2027.
There are already signs that money is being
repatriated as March saw the largest monthly inflow ever into Japanese
sovereign bond funds.
“The new money that’s being put to work won’t be
put to work overseas,” Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay, told
the Financial Times. “It won’t be
going into U.S. corporate bonds. It won’t be going into U.S. Treasuries. It
will be going into those domestic allocations.”
The asset manager launched its first Japanese bond
fund in March, underscoring the sea change that has taken place in the market.
Next month, investors widely anticipate the Bank of
Japan to lift rates again, sending the benchmark from a three-decade high of
0.75% to 1%.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to
be automated by AI
May 16, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
In a conversation with the Financial
Times earlier this year, the CEO
of Microsoft AI, Mustafa Suleyman, delivered
another in a series of predictions from AI leaders that white-collar work
is on the precipice of a radical transformation thanks to AI. His timeline is
18 months until those law school and MBA grads—and many less-credentialed
peers—are out of luck.
Suleyman predicted “human-level
performance on most, if not all professional tasks” being done by AI. Most
tasks that involve “sitting down at a computer” will be fully automated by AI
within the next year or 18 months, he said, naming accounting, legal,
marketing, and even project management as vulnerable. Suleyman’s warning echoed
the viral essay of the week, a version of which was published at Fortune.com, by
AI researcher Matt Shumer, who compared this moment to February 2020, when the
pandemic was about to hit America. This will be more dramatic, though, Shumer
said.
Suleyman cited the exponential growth in
computational power as a flashing red signal that AI could replace large swaths
of professionals. As “compute” advances, he said, models will be able to code
better than most human coders. Shumer and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have both
written about their alarm, even sadness, at watching their life’s work rapidly
grow obsolete.
If Suleyman’s warning sounds familiar,
that’s because it was the tune of early 2025, when many CEOs issued similarly
apocalyptic prophecies. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned last May AI could wipe out half of
all entry-level white-collar jobs (though recently changed his tune). Ford CEO Jim
Farley said AI would cut in half the number of
white-collar jobs in the U.S.
In The
Atlantic, Josh Tyrangiel argued the U.S. wasn’t
prepared for the coming AI disruption, comparing CEOs’ recent silence on the
subject to seeing “a shark fin break the water.”
But that drumbeat is beginning again,
with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk saying in Davos in
January that he thinks artificial general intelligence—AI that matches or
exceeds human-level intelligence—could arrive as early as this year.
AI’s real impact on professional jobs: mixed results so far
However, as AI experts hypothesize about
when, and if, AI will disrupt white-collar work, the technology thus far has
made only a small splash in professional services. A 2025 Thomson Reuters
report found lawyers, accountants, and auditors
are experimenting with AI for targeted tasks like document review and routine
analysis. But while the results have shown marginal productivity improvements,
they fall short of signaling mass job displacement.
In fact, in some instances, AI has had
the reverse effect: making workers less productive. A recent study from nonprofit Model Evaluation
and Threat Research (METR) on AI’s impact on software developers found the
technology actually made the workers’ tasks take 20% longer.
Any returns the economy is seeing are
largely confined to the tech industry, suggesting that AI disruption has been
limited in the real economy. Recent research from Apollo Global Management chief
economist Torsten Slok found that while profit margins in Big Tech increased by
more than 20% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the broader Bloomberg 500 Index
has seen almost no change. A few days earlier, Slok had noted
that “investors do not believe AI will result in higher earnings outside the
tech sector,” citing consensus Wall Street expectations for the S&P 500.
Still, there are early signs AI is
leading to job displacement. About 49,135 job cuts so far this year were
AI-related, according to employment consultancy Challenger, Gray &
Christmas. While not citing AI as a reason for cuts, Microsoft last year let go
15,000 workers. In a memo released last July following job
eliminations, CEO Satya Nadella said the company must “reimagine our mission
for a new era.”
Despite marginal workforce reductions,
the markets are reacting violently to the technology’s potential. In February,
software stocks suffered a huge selloff out of fears of automation (analysts
dubbed it the “SaaSpocalypse,”
for the software-as-a-service sector). The selloff came after Anthropic and
OpenAI announced the launch of agentic AI systems
for enterprises that perform many of the key functions of SaaS organizations.
More
Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be
automated by AI | Fortune
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
In politics stupidity is not a handicap.
Napoleon Bonaparte
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