Wednesday, 17 July 2024

USA – The Crack Up Boom Starts. Gold To Infinity And Beyond.

Baltic Dry Index. 1942 -51       Brent Crude  83.62

Spot Gold 2468              US 2 Year Yield 4.43 -0.01

If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.

Benjamin Franklin.

No need for my two cents worth today. The articles below sum it all up precisely.


Asia-Pacific markets mixed with Australia hitting fresh all-time high; yen intervention suspected

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday with ustralia’s S&P/ASX 200 reaching an all-time high.

The index gained 0.84% to surpass the previous record of 8,037.30, as gold miners Northern Star Resources and Bellevue Gold rose more than 4.55% and almost 4%, respectively. Evolution Mining and Newmont Corporation climbed more than 2%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.18%, while the Topix was up 0.59% after the Reuters Tankan survey showed an increase in business optimism among large Japanese manufacturers.

The manufacturing index was at +11, up from +6 in the previous month. However, confidence among non-manufacturers dipped from +31 to +26.

Separately, Japanese authorities likely intervened in the currency market last Thursday and Friday, spending a total of 6 trillion yen ($37.9 billion) over the two days, according to Reuters.

The yen is currently at 158.47 against the U.S. dollar. The currency weakened to 161.82 last Wednesday before strengthening to as much as 157.41 the following day.

The Taiwan Weighted Index fell 0.27% after a report cited U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump saying that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense.

“I know the people very well, respect them greatly. They did take about 100% of our chip business. I think, Taiwan should pay us for defense,” Trump said in interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in June that was published on Tuesday.

Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said that Taiwan was keen on being “more responsible” for its defense, and is steadily increasing spending, Reuters reported.

Shares of Taiwanese chip manufacturer TSMC fell as much as 2.36%.

South Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.22%, with the the small-cap Kosdaq following suit sliding 0.14%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell marginally, while China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.23%.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports dropped more than expected in June, marking a fifth straight month of declines. They fell 8.7% year on year compared to a 1.2% decline expected by economists polled by Reuters.

On a month-on-month basis, Singapore’s non-oil domestic unexpectedly dropped 0.4%, compared with a expectations of a 4.1% growth.

Overnight, Wall Street rose on optimism over possible rate cuts. The Dow blue-chip index gained 1.85%, closing at a record 40,954.48, while the broad-based S&P 500 added 0.64% to wrap the day at 5,667.20. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%.

Asia markets; Japan Reuters Tankan; yen intervention; Singapore NODX (cnbc.com)

 

Dow futures are little changed after index posts best day since June 2023: Live updates

UPDATED TUE, JUL 16 2024 8:24 PM EDT

Dow futures were little changed on Tuesday night after the 30-stock index posted its best day since June 2023.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered at the flatline. S&P 500 futures inched lower by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked down by nearly 0.2%.

In after-hours tradingFive Below lost 10% after announcing the departure of its chief executive officer Joel Anderson and the appointment of chief operating officer Kenneth Bull as its new interim president and CEO. J.B. Hunt Transportation Services dipped more than 2% after reporting worse-than-expected second-quarter results.

In Tuesday’s session, the Dow rallied more than 700 points and closed at a record, while also posting its best session since June 2023. The S&P 500 added 0.64%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the day just 0.2% higher.

Small-cap stocks have also seen a resurgence since last week’s June consumer price index report, with some investors now rotating out of megacap technology and popular artificial intelligence leaders into small caps and cyclical stocks. On Tuesday, the Russell 2000 added 3.5%, notching its fifth straight day of gains. The small-cap index has jumped more than 10% this month.

“The Dow has spent most of the past two years lagging the S&P 500 index, but it has new wind in its sails this summer on the hopes that the market rally will broaden from a narrow set of technology companies into a broader array of companies throughout the economy,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent Advisor Alliance.

This broadening market rally is underway as traders have become more optimistic on interest rate cuts, which should benefit small caps and companies with higher financing costs. Fed funds futures trading implies a 100% likelihood the Federal Reserve will lower rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, United AirlinesDiscover Financial ServicesJohnson & Johnson and U.S. Bancorp are some of the names set to release quarterly earnings results.

On the economic front, the Fed’s Beige Book will also be released, as will housing starts and building permits data for June.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)

 

Gold prices extend gains to hit new record on Fed rate cut optimism

Gold prices continued to notch new records Wednesday, lifted by increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Spot gold prices rose 0.5% to $2,482.29 per ounce, hitting an all-time high according to LSEG data. Gold futures climbed to $2,478.4 an ounce.

On Monday, Powell said the Fed won’t wait for inflation to reach the central bank’s 2% target before it begins cutting, due to the delay in policy effects. He said the Fed is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level. The monthly inflation rate dipped in June — the first time in over four years.

And that has given market watchers confidence. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are convinced the Fed will cut rates by September. As interest rates fall, gold tends to become more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds.

“The move has been ignited by signs of slowing inflation. That has been followed up by weak economic data,” ANZ’s senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes wrote in a note.

Gold prices have been breaching new highs in recent months due to its appeal as a safe-haven asset against the backdrop of escalating Middle East tensions, as well as central banks’ purchase of bullion.

“Gold’s ability to find support in any condition this year is worth highlighting,” said Vivek Dhar, Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s director of mining and energy commodities research.

“These drivers defied a stronger US dollar, which was largely driven by the market delaying expectations of Fed Fund rate cuts,” said the research analyst, adding that gold prices could rise above the bank’s forecast of $2,500 per ounce by the end of the year.

Gold prices extend gains to hit new record on Fed rate cut optimism (cnbc.com)

What Is a Crack-Up Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples

Updated July 15, 2024

A crack-up boom is an economic crisis that involves a recession in the real economy and a collapse of the monetary system due to continual credit expansion and resulting in unsustainable, rapid price increases. This concept of a crack-up boom was developed by Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises as a part of the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT).1

The crack-up boom is characterized by two key features: 1) excessively expansionary monetary policy that, in addition to the normal consequences described in ABCT, leads to out-of-control inflation expectations and 2) a resulting bout of hyperinflation which ends in the abandonment of the currency by market participants and a simultaneous recession or depression.2

---- The crack-up boom develops out the same process of credit expansion and the resulting distortion of the economy that occurs during the normal boom phase of Austrian business cycle theory. In the crack-up boom, the central bank attempts to sustain the boom indefinitely without regard to consequences, such as inflation and asset price bubbles. The problem comes when the government continuously pours more and more money, injecting it into the economy to give it a short-term boost, which eventually triggers a fundamental breakdown in the economy. In their efforts to prevent any downturn in the economy, monetary authorities continue to expand the supply of money and credit at an accelerating pace and avoid turning off the taps of money supply until it is too late.

More

What Is a Crack-Up Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples (investopedia.com)

From Bloomberg.

July 16, 2024 at 11:30 AM GMT+1

China threat

In one of his first interviews since being named at Trump’s running mate, Vance said China is the biggest threat to the US. Trump has already pledged to hike tariffs on China across the board should he be elected, including a 60% tax on all imports from the country, with both him and President Joe Biden seeking to be seen as tough on China. Research from UBS estimated that those 60% tariffs would more than halve China’s economic growth rate.

Treasury trade

The momentum behind Trump’s presidential bid has put pressure on long-term Treasuries, sending their yields higher on the view that his policies would worsen the country’s finances and fan inflation. That “Trump trade” is rewarding investors who had bet the bond market curve would return to normal. For that trade to really take hold, however, it would take an interest-rate cut from the Fed, which Goldman Sachs economists think looks justified. And investors are increasingly pricing that in too, with Treasuries rallying and 10-year yields near the lowest since March.

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas - Bloomberg

Finally, more on that massive security failure at Donald Trump’s rally. Approx. 1.5 minutes.

Trump gunman filmed getting into position two minutes before attack

Trump gunman filmed getting into position two minutes before attack - YouTube

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

States to Slash Spending at Fastest Pace Since Great Recession

General-fund spending to fall to $1.2 trillion in FY25

Today’s cuts represent a pullback from supercharged spending

July 15, 2024 at 8:32 PM GMT+1

Total general-fund spending is expected to fall to $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025, according to an analysis by the The Pew Charitable Trusts. That’s a roughly 6% decline from estimates of the prior fiscal year, which ended on June 30 for most states.

States haven’t cut at that pace since the wake of the Great Recession. One major difference: today’s cuts represent a pullback from years of supercharged spending made possible by one-time federal aid, which states used to pay for things like infrastructure, pension liabilities and rebates to taxpayers.

Most states grew rainy day funds to record highs in the aftermath of the pandemic. While they’ve begun slowing their savings recently, the funds could help cushion budgets against a weakening economy and lower revenue in areas that slashed taxes.

Overall, about half of US states are planning to spend more, according to Pew. But those increases were dwarfed by California, which swayed the national figure as the state works to close its $47 billion budget deficit, mostly through cutting or delaying spending.

More

States to Slash Spending at Fastest Pace Since Great Recession - Bloomberg

UK grocery inflation falls to 1.6%, says Kantar

16 July, 2024

LONDON (Reuters) - UK grocery inflation has slowed this month to its lowest level since September 2021, coinciding with the fastest rise in monthly supermarket shopper numbers so far this year, industry data showed on Tuesday.

Market researcher Kantar said annual grocery price inflation was 1.6% in the four weeks to July 7, versus 2.1% in the previous four-week period.

It said prices were falling fastest for products such as toilet tissues, butter and dog food but still rising for items such as vitamins, minerals and supplements, chilled fruit juices and drinks and deodorants.

Kantar's data, the most up-to-date snapshot of UK consumer behaviour published since the July 4 election, showed take-home grocery sales increased 2.2% in value terms over the four-week period year-on-year.

Official UK data published last month showed overall British inflation returned to its 2% target for the first time in nearly three years in May. Official data for June will be published on Wednesday and is likely to be a key factor in the Bank of England's deliberations ahead of its Aug. 1 interest rate meeting.

Kantar highlighted a boost to sales of beer, crisps and snacks from the Euro 2024 soccer championship.

It said Britons made 2% more trips to the supermarket this period than they did one year ago, and with pressure on pockets easing, sales of branded products increased by 3.6%, outpacing own-label items at 2.7%.

UK grocery inflation falls to 1.6%, says Kantar (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

More on the issue we covered on Monday. The outrageous and totally wrong overreach of the Orwellian misnamed UK Court of “Protection.”

What “protection” were the bewigged, befuddled and callous Justice’s offering sufficient to override a mother’s instinct, protection and love for her child?

Approx. 14 minutes.

State Overreach

State Overreach - YouTube

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Today, the electric airplane. I suspect that the fare paying public would sooner get on a Boeing 737 Max than get on an electric plane.

New Battery Innovation Ensures Reliable Power for Electric Flight

July 15, 2024

A battery component innovation could help keep power delivery high when electric aircraft land with low charge, according to a study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory with expertise from the University of Michigan. 

The research provides a solution to a problem identified in 2018 in a study led by Venkat Viswanathan, a professor of aerospace engineering at U-M and a coauthor of the new work published in Joule.

"Both takeoff and landing require high power, and landing is more challenging because you're not fully charged," Viswanathan said. "To get high power you have to bring all the resistances down. Anything that affects the ability to deliver that power."

The team emphasized that this is distinct from the needs of EV batteries, which mainly need to maintain their ranges.

"In an electric vehicle, you focus on capacity fade over time," said Youngmin Ko, a postdoctoral researcher at Berkeley Lab's Molecular Foundry and lead author of the Joule study. "But for aircraft, it's the power fade that's critical-;the ability to consistently achieve high power for takeoff and landing."

Both capacity fade and power fade typically occur when lithium ions can no longer move easily in and out of the electrodes. While the key for capacity fade is the quantity of lithium ions that can move between the electrodes, the main factor for power fade is speed. The problem is that corrosion builds up on the electrodes, taking up space that could have housed lithium ions and making it harder for the lithium to reach available spaces.

Under the leadership of Brett Helms, corresponding author of the study and a senior staff scientist at Berkeley Lab's Molecular Foundry, the team explored the interactions among the electrodes and electrolyte using an approach borrowed from biology. In studies of life, the field generally called "omics" looks for clues in the constituents of cells-;what genes are being read, what proteins are being made, and so on. 

In this case, the team tried different electrolyte chemistries, looking at subtle changes that occurred within the electrolyte at different locations in the battery during charging and discharging. Prior research has typically attributed power fade to problems arising at the battery's negative side, as lithium metal is very reactive. 

More

New Battery Innovation Ensures Reliable Power for Electric Flight (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

In my youth, I traveled much, and I observed in different countries, that the more public provisions were made for the poor, the less they provided for themselves, and of course became poorer. And, on the contrary, the less was done for them, the more they did for themselves, and became richer.

Benjamin Franklin.

No comments:

Post a Comment