Baltic
Dry Index. 1942 -51 Brent Crude 83.62
Spot Gold 2468 US 2 Year Yield 4.43 -0.01
If everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking.
Benjamin Franklin.
No need for my two cents worth today. The
articles below sum it all up precisely.
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed with Australia hitting fresh all-time high; yen intervention
suspected
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed on Wednesday
with ustralia’s S&P/ASX
200 reaching an all-time high.
The index gained 0.84% to surpass
the previous record of 8,037.30, as gold miners Northern Star
Resources and Bellevue Gold rose
more than 4.55% and almost 4%, respectively. Evolution Mining and Newmont
Corporation climbed more than 2%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.18%, while the Topix was up 0.59% after
the Reuters Tankan survey showed an increase in business optimism among large
Japanese manufacturers.
The manufacturing index was at +11,
up from +6 in the previous month. However, confidence among non-manufacturers
dipped from +31 to +26.
Separately, Japanese authorities likely intervened
in the currency market last Thursday and Friday, spending a total of 6 trillion
yen ($37.9 billion) over the two days, according to Reuters.
The yen is
currently at 158.47 against the U.S. dollar. The currency weakened to 161.82
last Wednesday before strengthening to as much as 157.41 the following day.
The Taiwan Weighted
Index fell
0.27% after a report cited U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump
saying that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense.
“I know the people very well,
respect them greatly. They did take about 100% of our chip business. I think,
Taiwan should pay us for defense,” Trump said in interview with Bloomberg
Businessweek in June that was published on Tuesday.
Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai said
that Taiwan was keen on being “more responsible” for its defense, and is
steadily increasing spending, Reuters reported.
Shares of Taiwanese chip
manufacturer TSMC fell as much as 2.36%.
South Korea’s Kospi dipped
0.22%, with the the small-cap Kosdaq following suit sliding 0.14%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell
marginally, while China’s CSI 300 dropped 0.23%.
Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports dropped
more than expected in June, marking a fifth straight month of declines. They
fell 8.7% year on year compared to a 1.2% decline expected by economists polled
by Reuters.
On a month-on-month basis,
Singapore’s non-oil domestic unexpectedly dropped 0.4%, compared with a
expectations of a 4.1% growth.
Overnight, Wall Street rose on
optimism over possible rate cuts. The Dow blue-chip index gained 1.85%, closing
at a record 40,954.48, while the broad-based S&P 500 added 0.64% to wrap
the day at 5,667.20. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20%.
Asia markets; Japan
Reuters Tankan; yen intervention; Singapore NODX (cnbc.com)
Dow futures
are little changed after index posts best day since June 2023: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, JUL 16 2024 8:24 PM EDT
Dow futures
were little changed on Tuesday night after the 30-stock index posted its best
day since June 2023.
Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered
at the flatline. S&P 500
futures inched
lower by 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked
down by nearly 0.2%.
In after-hours
trading, Five Below lost
10% after announcing the departure of its chief executive officer Joel Anderson
and the appointment of chief operating officer Kenneth Bull as its new interim
president and CEO. J.B. Hunt
Transportation Services dipped
more than 2% after reporting worse-than-expected second-quarter results.
In Tuesday’s session, the Dow rallied
more than 700 points and closed at a record, while also posting its best
session since June 2023. The S&P 500 added
0.64%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite ended the day just 0.2% higher.
Small-cap stocks have
also seen a resurgence since last week’s June
consumer price index report, with some investors now rotating out of
megacap technology and popular artificial intelligence leaders into small caps
and cyclical stocks. On Tuesday, the Russell 2000 added
3.5%, notching its fifth straight day of gains. The small-cap index has jumped
more than 10% this month.
“The Dow has spent most of the
past two years lagging the S&P 500 index, but it has new wind in its sails
this summer on the hopes that the market rally will broaden from a narrow set
of technology companies into a broader array of companies throughout the
economy,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Independent
Advisor Alliance.
This broadening market rally is
underway as traders have become more optimistic on interest rate cuts, which
should benefit small caps and companies with higher financing costs. Fed funds
futures trading implies a 100%
likelihood the Federal Reserve will lower rates in September,
according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, United Airlines, Discover Financial Services, Johnson & Johnson and U.S. Bancorp are
some of the names set to release quarterly earnings results.
On the economic front, the Fed’s
Beige Book will also be released, as will housing starts and building permits
data for June.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Gold prices
extend gains to hit new record on Fed rate cut optimism
Gold prices continued to notch new records
Wednesday, lifted by increasing conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut
interest rates in September following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Spot
gold prices rose
0.5% to $2,482.29 per ounce, hitting an all-time high according to LSEG data. Gold futures climbed
to $2,478.4 an ounce.
On Monday, Powell said the Fed
won’t wait for inflation to reach the central bank’s 2% target
before it begins cutting, due to the delay in policy effects. He said the Fed
is looking for “greater confidence” that inflation will return to the 2% level.
The monthly
inflation rate dipped in June — the first time in over four
years.
And that has given market watchers
confidence. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are convinced
the Fed will cut rates by September. As interest rates fall, gold
tends to become more appealing compared to fixed-income assets such as bonds.
“The move has been ignited by signs
of slowing inflation. That has been followed up by weak economic data,” ANZ’s
senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes wrote in a note.
Gold prices have
been breaching new highs in recent months due to its appeal as
a safe-haven asset against the backdrop of escalating Middle East tensions, as
well as central banks’ purchase of bullion.
“Gold’s ability to find support in
any condition this year is worth highlighting,” said Vivek Dhar, Commonwealth
Bank of Australia’s director of mining and energy commodities research.
“These drivers defied a stronger US
dollar, which was largely driven by the market delaying expectations of Fed
Fund rate cuts,” said the research analyst, adding that gold prices could rise
above the bank’s forecast of $2,500 per ounce by the end of the year.
Gold
prices extend gains to hit new record on Fed rate cut optimism (cnbc.com)
What Is a Crack-Up
Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples
Updated July 15, 2024
A crack-up boom is an economic
crisis that involves a recession in the real economy and a collapse of the
monetary system due to continual credit expansion and resulting in
unsustainable, rapid price increases. This concept of a crack-up boom was
developed by Austrian economist Ludwig
von Mises as a part of the Austrian business cycle theory
(ABCT).1
The crack-up boom is characterized by two key features:
1) excessively expansionary monetary policy that, in addition to the normal
consequences described in ABCT, leads to out-of-control inflation expectations and 2) a resulting
bout of hyperinflation which
ends in the abandonment of the currency by market participants and a
simultaneous recession or depression.2
---- The crack-up boom
develops out the same process of credit expansion and the resulting distortion
of the economy that occurs during the normal boom phase of Austrian business cycle theory. In the crack-up boom, the central bank attempts to sustain the boom indefinitely
without regard to consequences, such as inflation and asset price bubbles. The problem comes when the government continuously pours
more and more money, injecting it into the economy to give it a short-term
boost, which eventually triggers a fundamental breakdown in the economy. In
their efforts to prevent any downturn in the economy, monetary authorities
continue to expand the supply of money and credit at an accelerating pace and
avoid turning off the taps of money supply until it is too late.
More
What Is a Crack-Up Boom? Definition, History, Causes and Examples (investopedia.com)
From Bloomberg.
July 16, 2024 at 11:30 AM GMT+1
China threat
In one of his first interviews since being named at Trump’s
running mate, Vance said China is the biggest threat to the US. Trump has
already pledged to hike tariffs on China across the board should he be elected,
including a 60% tax on all imports from the country, with both him and
President Joe Biden seeking to be seen as tough on China. Research from UBS
estimated that those 60% tariffs would more than halve China’s economic growth rate.
Treasury trade
The momentum behind Trump’s presidential bid has put
pressure on long-term Treasuries, sending their yields higher on the view that
his policies would worsen the country’s finances and fan inflation. That “Trump trade” is rewarding investors who had bet
the bond market curve would return to normal. For that trade to really take
hold, however, it would take an interest-rate cut from the Fed, which Goldman Sachs economists think looks justified. And
investors are increasingly pricing that in too, with Treasuries rallying and 10-year yields near
the lowest since March.
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas - Bloomberg
Finally, more on that massive security
failure at Donald Trump’s rally. Approx. 1.5 minutes.
Trump
gunman filmed getting into position two minutes before attack
Trump gunman filmed getting into position two minutes before attack - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
States to Slash Spending at
Fastest Pace Since Great Recession
General-fund spending to fall to $1.2 trillion in
FY25
Today’s cuts represent a pullback from supercharged
spending
July 15, 2024 at 8:32 PM GMT+1
Total general-fund spending is
expected to fall to $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2025, according to an analysis by the The Pew
Charitable Trusts. That’s a roughly 6% decline from estimates of the prior
fiscal year, which ended on June 30 for most states.
States haven’t cut at that pace
since the wake of the Great Recession. One major difference: today’s cuts
represent a pullback from years of supercharged spending made possible by
one-time federal aid, which states used to pay for things like infrastructure,
pension liabilities and rebates to taxpayers.
Most states grew rainy day funds
to record highs in the aftermath of the
pandemic. While they’ve begun slowing their savings recently, the funds could
help cushion budgets against a weakening economy and lower revenue in areas
that slashed taxes.
Overall, about half of US states
are planning to spend more, according to Pew. But those increases were dwarfed
by California, which swayed the national figure as the state works to close its
$47 billion budget deficit, mostly through cutting or delaying spending.
More
States to Slash Spending at Fastest Pace Since Great
Recession - Bloomberg
UK grocery inflation falls to 1.6%, says Kantar
16 July, 2024
LONDON (Reuters) - UK grocery
inflation has slowed this month to its lowest level since September 2021,
coinciding with the fastest rise in monthly supermarket shopper numbers so far
this year, industry data showed on Tuesday.
Market researcher Kantar said annual
grocery price inflation was 1.6% in the four weeks to July 7, versus 2.1% in
the previous four-week period.
It said prices were falling fastest
for products such as toilet tissues, butter and dog food but still rising for
items such as vitamins, minerals and supplements, chilled fruit juices and
drinks and deodorants.
Kantar's data, the most up-to-date
snapshot of UK consumer behaviour published since the July 4 election, showed
take-home grocery sales increased 2.2% in value terms over the four-week period
year-on-year.
Official UK data published last month
showed overall British inflation returned to its 2% target for the first time
in nearly three years in May. Official data for June will be published on
Wednesday and is likely to be a key factor in the Bank of England's
deliberations ahead of its Aug. 1 interest rate meeting.
Kantar highlighted a boost to sales
of beer, crisps and snacks from the Euro 2024 soccer championship.
It said Britons made 2% more trips to
the supermarket this period than they did one year ago, and with pressure on
pockets easing, sales of branded products increased by 3.6%, outpacing
own-label items at 2.7%.
UK grocery inflation falls to 1.6%, says Kantar (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
More on the issue we covered
on Monday. The outrageous and totally wrong overreach of the Orwellian misnamed
UK Court of “Protection.”
What “protection” were the
bewigged, befuddled and callous Justice’s offering sufficient to override a
mother’s instinct, protection and love for her child?
Approx. 14 minutes.
State
Overreach
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today, the electric airplane. I
suspect that the fare paying public would sooner get on a Boeing 737 Max than
get on an electric plane.
New Battery Innovation Ensures Reliable Power for
Electric Flight
July
15, 2024
A battery component
innovation could help keep power delivery high when electric aircraft land with
low charge, according to a study led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
with expertise from the University of Michigan.
The research provides a solution to a
problem identified in 2018 in a study led by Venkat Viswanathan, a professor of
aerospace engineering at U-M and a coauthor of the new work published in Joule.
"Both takeoff
and landing require high power, and landing is more challenging because you're
not fully charged," Viswanathan said. "To get high power
you have to bring all the resistances down. Anything that affects the ability
to deliver that power."
The team emphasized that this is
distinct from the needs of EV batteries, which mainly need to maintain their
ranges.
"In an
electric vehicle, you focus on capacity fade over time," said Youngmin Ko, a
postdoctoral researcher at Berkeley Lab's Molecular Foundry and lead author of
the Joule study. "But for aircraft, it's the power fade that's
critical-;the ability to consistently achieve high power for takeoff and
landing."
Both capacity fade and power fade
typically occur when lithium ions can no longer move easily in and out of the
electrodes. While the key for capacity fade is the quantity of lithium ions
that can move between the electrodes, the main factor for power fade is speed.
The problem is that corrosion builds up on the electrodes, taking up space that
could have housed lithium ions and making it harder for the lithium to reach
available spaces.
Under the leadership of Brett Helms,
corresponding author of the study and a senior staff scientist at Berkeley
Lab's Molecular Foundry, the team explored the interactions among the
electrodes and electrolyte using an approach borrowed from biology. In studies
of life, the field generally called "omics" looks for clues in the
constituents of cells-;what genes are being read, what proteins are being made,
and so on.
In this case, the team tried
different electrolyte chemistries, looking at subtle changes that occurred
within the electrolyte at different locations in the battery during charging
and discharging. Prior research has typically attributed power fade to problems
arising at the battery's negative side, as lithium metal is very
reactive.
More
New Battery Innovation Ensures Reliable Power for
Electric Flight (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
In my youth, I traveled much, and I observed in different countries, that the more public provisions were made for the poor, the less they provided for themselves, and of course became poorer. And, on the contrary, the less was done for them, the more they did for themselves, and became richer.
Benjamin Franklin.
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