Baltic
Dry Index. 1947 +08 Brent Crude 85.61
Spot
Gold 2409 US
2 Year Yield 4.50 -0.12
Credit means that a certain confidence is given, and
a certain trust reposed. Is that trust justified? And is that confidence wise? These
are the cardinal questions. To put it more simply credit is a set of promises
to pay; will those promises be kept?
Walter Bagehot.
With the mainstream media over-covering the increasingly fragile and confused travails of President Biden, there’s no need for the LIR to cover it as well.
However, it’s worth pondering what it would mean for the sky-high stock casinos if President Biden were to withdraw his candidacy over the weekend.
In the stock casinos, a rotation away from the AI bubble, more signs of the top, or an exit away from stocks amid rising fear of recessions arriving in the USA and EU?
Look
away from the soaring gold price and collapsing US Treasury yields now.
Japan’s Nikkei
falls 2% amid suspected yen intervention as Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed
BEIJING — China’s imports fell in June, missing
expectations for slight growth, while exports rose more than expected, customs data released Friday showed.
China’s imports fell by 2.3% in
June from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms. That contrasts with a forecast of
2.8% growth, according to a Reuters poll.
U.S. dollar-denominated exports for
June climbed by 8.6% year on year, beating expectations for 8% growth forecast
by a Reuters poll.
Those figures lifted year-to-date
imports by 2%, and exports by 3.6% in the first six months compared with the
same period a year earlier.
China’s trade with the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations surged by 7.1% in the first half of the year,
cementing the bloc’s position as the country’s largest trading partner by
region, followed by the European Union.
EU’s trade with China fell in the first six months
of 2024, with imports and exports both declining.
China’s trade with
the U.S. was down slightly in dollar terms during the first half of the year,
as imports from the U.S. fell 4.9%, though exports rose 1.5%.
Trade with Brazil grew rapidly in the first six
months, with Chinese exports to the Latin American country surging by 24.4% and
imports climbing by 8.3% year on year.
China’s imports of rare earths, meat, cosmetics
products and machine tools fell sharply in the first half of the year, customs
data showed. However, imports of iron ore and oil grew during that time.
Amid slower
domestic growth, Beijing has sought to shore up its own supplies of food and critical
minerals in an effort to bolster national security.
More
China's imports unexpectedly drop in June, but exports beat forecasts (cnbc.com)
China gears up
for next week’s Third Plenum meeting. Here’s why real estate isn’t likely the
main focus
BEIJING — China’s real estate problems may be
massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third
Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government
debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing.
The much-anticipated policy
meeting, scheduled for Monday to Thursday, is a major gathering of the top
members of the ruling Communist Party of China that typically happens only once
every five years. This plenum was widely expected to be held last fall but has
been delayed.
“The key challenge faced by Beijing is to find an alternative fiscal
system, as the current one, which relies heavily on land sales, is under severe
pressure due to the plunging land market,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at
Macquarie, said in an email to CNBC.
He expects next week’s meeting
to focus on fiscal reform and other structural policies. Hu pointed out that
cyclical policies — which can include property — are usually discussed at more
regular meetings such as that of China’s Politburo, expected in late
July.
“Other than that, policymakers are
also likely to reiterate [their] commitment to innovation, i.e. the so-called
new productive forces,” Hu said, referring to Beijing’s push to support
advanced manufacturing and high-tech.
The Central Committee of the ruling Chinese
Communist Party, made up of more than 300 people including full and alternate
members, typically holds seven plenary meetings during each five-year term.
The Politburo is a group of about 24 people
within that committee.
The Standing Committee of the Politburo, made up of seven key
members, is the highest circle of power in China which is headed by Xi Jinping, General
Secretary of the Party and President of China.
The Third Plenum has
traditionally focused on economic policy. Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership
in 1978, the meeting officially heralded significant changes for the
communist state, such as China’s “reform and opening.”
At next week’s plenary meeting,
“the number one thing I’m looking out for is the so-called financial reform,”
Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), told CNBC.
She’ll also be watching for details
around consolidation in the banking sector, as well as signals on policy around
local government finances and taxes.
More
China to hold Third Plenum. Why real estate isn't likely the main focus (cnbc.com)
Finally in EV news, yet another EV battery
shop fire, this one in London. Volkswagen may close its Brussels EV factory due
to lack of sales.
Tottenham
cycle shop destroyed after e-bike battery catches fire
July 10, 2024
A cycle shop in South
Tottenham has been completely
gutted by fire after an electric bicycle battery burst into flames.
Six fire engines and around
40 firefighters attended the blaze above Cycle Stop on West Green Road at
around 7pm on Sunday evening.
The London
Fire Brigade (LFB) said the fire
was caused by the failure of a lithium battery pack for an e-bike.
The blaze later spread to
other e-bike battery packs situated within the shop.
Photos published on social
media show the shop completely burnt out, with the contents of the ground floor
reduced to ash.
Crews brought the fire under
control by 8.12pm. There were no reports of any injuries.
A London
Fire Brigade spokesperson said: “Lithium batteries are susceptible to failure
and can present a serious fire risk if they’re over-charged, short circuited,
submerged in water or damaged.
“Try to ensure they are not
getting knocked around while in use or while being carried as this can increase
the chance of damage to cells.”
The incident comes after
the LFB warned of a spike in fires caused by e-bike batteries.
E-bikes and e-scooters are powered by lithium batteries, which can store a
significant amount of energy in a very small space.
But if that energy is
released in an uncontrolled way, it can cause a fire or explosion.
Many of the e-bike and e-scooter
fires in London have involved second-hand vehicles or the bike has been
modified using parts bought online, according to the LFB.
The Brigade added that a lack of
regulation of e-bike scooters sold online meant that there was a high risk that
products did not meet the correct safety standards.
Figures published in April showed
that more than 31 e-bike fires and nine e-scooter fires were recorded in the
capital in 2024.
Last year, the LFB responded to 143
e-bike fires along with 36 blazes involving e-scooters.
These fires caused three deaths and
around 60 injuries.
Tottenham cycle shop destroyed after e-bike battery catches fire (msn.com)
Volkswagen’s EV
troubles deepen with possible Audi plant closure
Peter Johnson | Jul 10 2024 - 9:18 am PT
Volkswagen may close its first
plant in Europe ever. As it looks to cut costs amid falling EV sales, Volkswagen warned a possible Audi assembly plant closure in
Brussels is an option.
It’s been 26 years since the doors were shut at
VW’s Westmoreland assembly factory in Pennsylvania, its last plant closure.
However, that could soon
change. Volkswagen’s Audi said in a
statement Tuesday that it’s considering
ending Q8 e-tron production early. The Q8 e-tron is the only model built at
Audi’s site in Brussels.
Plant management has already reached out to the
Company Council, announcing plans to restructure the site.
Audi said closing the plant would be possible if
no alternatives were reached. “The announcement of the intention does not mean
that a decision has been made,” according to Volker Germann, CEO of Audi
Brussels. He added, “We will take all perspectives into account.”
The move comes as Audi’s sales fell over 11% in
the second quarter of 2024. Audi claimed the decline is part of a broader
global slowdown in the electric luxury segment.
Audi’s Q8 e-tron and Q8 Sportback e-tron, both produced in Brussels,
have been hit hard. Volkswagen sold 17,900 Audi Q8 e-tron (including Sportback)
models in the first half of 2024, down from the 19,500 handed over in 1H 2023.
The decline comes as
overall VW
Group EV deliveries fell to 317,200 in the
first half of the year from 321,600 last year (-8%).
More
Volkswagen's EV troubles deepen with possible Audi
plant closure (electrek.co)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist.
Walter Bagehot.
Inflation falls
0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates
PUBLISHED THU, JUL 11 2024 8:32
AM EDT
The monthly inflation rate dipped in June,
providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest
rates later this year.
The consumer price index,
a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy,
declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest
level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The
all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly
basis.
Excluding volatile
food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.1 % monthly and 3.3% from
a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.4%, according to
the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The annual increase
for the core rate was the smallest since April 2021.
A 3.8% slide in
gasoline prices held back inflation for the month, offsetting 0.2% increases in
both food prices and shelter. Housing-related costs have been one of the most
stubborn components of inflation and make up about one-third of the weighting
in the CPI, so a pullback in the rate of increase is another positive sign.
Stock market futures
rose following the release while Treasury yields tumbled.
In addition to the
pullback in energy prices and the modest increase for shelter, used vehicle
prices decreased 1.5% on the month and were down 10.1% from a year ago. The
item was one of the main drivers in the initial surge in inflation back in
2021.
CPI inflation report June 2024: (cnbc.com)
German
inflation confirmed at 2.5% in June
Thu, 11 July 2024 at 7:08 am
BST
BERLIN (Reuters) - German inflation
eased in June to 2.5%, the federal statistics office said on Thursday,
confirming preliminary data.
German consumer prices, harmonised to
compare with other European Union countries, had risen by 2.8% year-on-year in
May.
The statistics office gives more
detailed monthly data on its website.
German inflation confirmed at 2.5% in June (yahoo.com)
UK
economy grew by more than expected in May, helped by house-building
By Reuters July 11, 2024 7:29 AM GMT+1
July 11 (Reuters) - Britain's economic output rose
by 0.4% in May, a bigger rise than expected and helped by a jump in housing
construction, according to official data that will be welcomed by the new government
of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.2%
increase for monthly gross domestic product in May.
The data from the Office for National Statistics
revealed a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services,
manufacturing and construction industries all growing, the latter up by 1.9% on
the month, driven by the housing sector.
Over the three months to May, the economy expanded
by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared
with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.
The Bank of England last month said it expected the
economy would grow by 0.5% over the second quarter.
"The economy grew strongly in May with all the
main sectors seeing increases," ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz
McKeown said. "Many retailers and wholesalers had a good month, with both
bouncing back from a weak April."
UK economy grew by more than expected in May, helped
by house-building | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
‘Stay
away’ - UK hospitals tell Covid-19 patients not to visit amid summer outbreak
of new FLiRT variants
July 11, 2024
Hospitals have asked people with Covid-19 symptoms to stay away as new variants spread across
the UK.
Cases are rising of the FLiRT and LB.1 variants, which have similar
symptoms to previous strains.
University College London
Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust posted a statement on Monday (8 July): “We are
seeing a rise in cases of Covid-19 in London and patients testing positive in
UCLH hospitals.
“While we remain open to
visitors, please do not visit if you are experiencing symptoms of Covid-19.
“If you do visit, please feel
free to wear a mask if you feel more comfortable doing so.
“We will review this
situation towards the end of this week, and hope to update this message then.”
Royal
Devon NHS posted on
X: “We’re seeing an increase in cases of Covid-19 in the community, so please
help us to help you and your loved one by not visiting our hospitals if you are
showing any symptoms of the virus. Thank you.”
Taken from mutations characterising the KP.3, KP.2, and KP.1.1
Covid variants, the term “FLiRT” is used to collectively describe a group of
new strains of the virus that surfaced in April.
The LB.1 variant, which is
another Omicron and FLiRT variant, has been reported to cause symptoms similar to the FLiRT strains.
Common symptoms are similar to those
from previous strains: fever, coughing, fatigue, loss of taste or smell, sore
throat, muscle or body aches, shortness of breath, headache, and a runny nose.
The UK Health Security Agency said in
May: “If you have symptoms of a respiratory infection, such as Covid-19, and
you have a high temperature or do not feel well enough to go to work or carry
out normal activities, you should avoid contact with vulnerable people and stay
at home if possible.”
Dr Mariyam Malik, an NHS and private
GP at Pall Mall Medical said crowds can contribute to the spread of infections.
“Increased travel and big events such
as festivals often result in crowded settings where the virus can spread more
easily, and there is no longer any legal restrictions like wearing masks,
social distancing,” he said.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New
material derived from graphene improves the performance of neuroprostheses
July 10, 2024
After an amputation or a severe nerve injury,
patients lose to a greater or lesser extent the ability to move and feel a lost
limb, which limits their autonomy in activities of daily living. Currently, the
only strategy that allows recovery of the lost functions consists of
neuroprostheses: electrodes capable of stimulating the nerves to induce
specific sensations, and of recording motor signals that, once decoded, can be
sent to a bionic prosthesis.
In the design of neuroprostheses, it
is important that the electrodes are small enough that they are selective and
interact electrically only with a reduced number of axons in the nerve.
Therefore, although they have commonly been constructed from metals such as
gold, platinum or iridium oxide, it is necessary to find other materials that
have enhanced conductive capacity to allow the creation of even smaller
electrode contacts.
This is where graphene and its
derivatives come into play; their excellent electrical properties have allowed
the development of a new generation of microelectrodes.
Research coordinated by the UAB
Institut de Neurociències (INc-UAB) has studied the capacity of a new material
derived from graphene, EGNITE, to stimulate and record from the peripheral
nerve. Furthermore, its biocompatibility has been validated, which is key for
preserving the function of the interface over time.
The findings are published in the
journal Advanced Science.
The research was carried out
in the Neuroplasticity and Regeneration group of the INc-UAB, led by professor
Xavier Navarro of the UAB Department of Cell Biology, Physiology and
Immunology, in collaboration with Jose Garrido's research group at the Institut
Català de Nanociència i Nanotecnologia (ICN2), which was in charge of
developing the EGNITE together with the neural interfaces.
More
New material derived from graphene improves the
performance of neuroprostheses (msn.com)
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and will it turn into a momentous weekend? Will England win the European
Football Championship? Will a fragile and increasingly confused President Biden
withdraw as the Democratic candidate for President next November? Have a great weekend everyone.
The
business of banking ought to be simple. If it is hard it is wrong. The only
securities which a banker, using money that he may be asked at short notice to
repay, ought to touch, are those which are easily saleable and easily
intelligible.
Walter Bagehot.
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