Friday, 12 July 2024

Stocks, Rotation Or More Sign Of The Top. More EV Troubles.

Baltic Dry Index. 1947 +08       Brent Crude  85.61

Spot Gold 2409              US 2 Year Yield 4.50 -0.12

Credit means that a certain confidence is given, and a certain trust reposed. Is that trust justified? And is that confidence wise? These are the cardinal questions. To put it more simply credit is a set of promises to pay; will those promises be kept?

Walter Bagehot.

With the mainstream media over-covering the increasingly fragile and confused travails of President Biden, there’s no need for the LIR to cover it as well.

However, it’s worth pondering what it would mean for the sky-high stock casinos if President Biden were to withdraw his candidacy over the weekend.

In the stock casinos, a rotation away from the AI bubble, more signs of the top, or an exit away from stocks amid rising fear of recessions arriving in the USA and EU?

Look away from the soaring gold price and collapsing US Treasury yields now.

 

Japan’s Nikkei falls 2% amid suspected yen intervention as Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed

BEIJING — China’s imports fell in June, missing expectations for slight growth, while exports rose more than expected, customs data released Friday showed.

China’s imports fell by 2.3% in June from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms. That contrasts with a forecast of 2.8% growth, according to a Reuters poll.

U.S. dollar-denominated exports for June climbed by 8.6% year on year, beating expectations for 8% growth forecast by a Reuters poll.

Those figures lifted year-to-date imports by 2%, and exports by 3.6% in the first six months compared with the same period a year earlier.

China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations surged by 7.1% in the first half of the year, cementing the bloc’s position as the country’s largest trading partner by region, followed by the European Union.

EU’s trade with China fell in the first six months of 2024, with imports and exports both declining.

China’s trade with the U.S. was down slightly in dollar terms during the first half of the year, as imports from the U.S. fell 4.9%, though exports rose 1.5%.

Trade with Brazil grew rapidly in the first six months, with Chinese exports to the Latin American country surging by 24.4% and imports climbing by 8.3% year on year.

China’s imports of rare earths, meat, cosmetics products and machine tools fell sharply in the first half of the year, customs data showed. However, imports of iron ore and oil grew during that time.

Amid slower domestic growth, Beijing has sought to shore up its own supplies of food and critical minerals in an effort to bolster national security.

More

China's imports unexpectedly drop in June, but exports beat forecasts (cnbc.com)

China gears up for next week’s Third Plenum meeting. Here’s why real estate isn’t likely the main focus

BEIJING — China’s real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing.

The much-anticipated policy meeting, scheduled for Monday to Thursday, is a major gathering of the top members of the ruling Communist Party of China that typically happens only once every five years. This plenum was widely expected to be held last fall but has been delayed.

“The key challenge faced by Beijing is to find an alternative fiscal system, as the current one, which relies heavily on land sales, is under severe pressure due to the plunging land market,” Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, said in an email to CNBC.

He expects next week’s meeting to focus on fiscal reform and other structural policies. Hu pointed out that cyclical policies — which can include property — are usually discussed at more regular meetings such as that of China’s Politburo, expected in late July.

“Other than that, policymakers are also likely to reiterate [their] commitment to innovation, i.e. the so-called new productive forces,” Hu said, referring to Beijing’s push to support advanced manufacturing and high-tech.

The Central Committee of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, made up of more than 300 people including full and alternate members, typically holds seven plenary meetings during each five-year term.

The Politburo is a group of about 24 people within that committee. 

The Standing Committee of the Politburo, made up of seven key members, is the highest circle of power in China which is headed by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Party and President of China.

The Third Plenum has traditionally focused on economic policy. Under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership in 1978,  the meeting officially heralded significant changes for the communist state, such as China’s “reform and opening.”

At next week’s plenary meeting, “the number one thing I’m looking out for is the so-called financial reform,” Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China), told CNBC.

She’ll also be watching for details around consolidation in the banking sector, as well as signals on policy around local government finances and taxes.

More

China to hold Third Plenum. Why real estate isn't likely the main focus (cnbc.com)

Finally in EV news, yet another EV battery shop fire, this one in London. Volkswagen may close its Brussels EV factory due to lack of sales.


Tottenham cycle shop destroyed after e-bike battery catches fire

July 10, 2024

A cycle shop in South Tottenham has been completely gutted by fire after an electric bicycle battery burst into flames.

Six fire engines and around 40 firefighters attended the blaze above Cycle Stop on West Green Road at around 7pm on Sunday evening.

The London Fire Brigade (LFB) said the fire was caused by the failure of a lithium battery pack for an e-bike.

The blaze later spread to other e-bike battery packs situated within the shop.

Photos published on social media show the shop completely burnt out, with the contents of the ground floor reduced to ash.

Crews brought the fire under control by 8.12pm. There were no reports of any injuries.

A London Fire Brigade spokesperson said: “Lithium batteries are susceptible to failure and can present a serious fire risk if they’re over-charged, short circuited, submerged in water or damaged.

“Try to ensure they are not getting knocked around while in use or while being carried as this can increase the chance of damage to cells.”

The incident comes after the LFB warned of a spike in fires caused by e-bike batteries.

E-bikes and e-scooters are powered by lithium batteries, which can store a significant amount of energy in a very small space.

But if that energy is released in an uncontrolled way, it can cause a fire or explosion.

Many of the e-bike and e-scooter fires in London have involved second-hand vehicles or the bike has been modified using parts bought online, according to the LFB.

The Brigade added that a lack of regulation of e-bike scooters sold online meant that there was a high risk that products did not meet the correct safety standards.

Figures published in April showed that more than 31 e-bike fires and nine e-scooter fires were recorded in the capital in 2024.

Last year, the LFB responded to 143 e-bike fires along with 36 blazes involving e-scooters.

These fires caused three deaths and around 60 injuries.

Tottenham cycle shop destroyed after e-bike battery catches fire (msn.com)

Volkswagen’s EV troubles deepen with possible Audi plant closure

Peter Johnson | Jul 10 2024 - 9:18 am PT

Volkswagen may close its first plant in Europe ever. As it looks to cut costs amid falling EV sales, Volkswagen warned a possible Audi assembly plant closure in Brussels is an option.

It’s been 26 years since the doors were shut at VW’s Westmoreland assembly factory in Pennsylvania, its last plant closure.

 

However, that could soon change. Volkswagen’s Audi said in a statement Tuesday that it’s considering ending Q8 e-tron production early. The Q8 e-tron is the only model built at Audi’s site in Brussels.

Plant management has already reached out to the Company Council, announcing plans to restructure the site.

Audi said closing the plant would be possible if no alternatives were reached. “The announcement of the intention does not mean that a decision has been made,” according to Volker Germann, CEO of Audi Brussels. He added, “We will take all perspectives into account.”

The move comes as Audi’s sales fell over 11% in the second quarter of 2024. Audi claimed the decline is part of a broader global slowdown in the electric luxury segment.

 

Audi’s Q8 e-tron and Q8 Sportback e-tron, both produced in Brussels, have been hit hard. Volkswagen sold 17,900 Audi Q8 e-tron (including Sportback) models in the first half of 2024, down from the 19,500 handed over in 1H 2023.

 

The decline comes as overall VW Group EV deliveries fell to 317,200 in the first half of the year from 321,600 last year (-8%).

More

Volkswagen's EV troubles deepen with possible Audi plant closure (electrek.co)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

No real English gentleman, in his secret soul, was ever sorry for the death of a political economist.

Walter Bagehot.

Inflation falls 0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 11 2024 8:32 AM EDT

The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of costs for goods and services across the U.S. economy, declined 0.1% from May, putting the 12-month rate at 3%, around its lowest level in more than three years, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis.

Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.1 % monthly and 3.3% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.2% and 3.4%, according to the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The annual increase for the core rate was the smallest since April 2021.

A 3.8% slide in gasoline prices held back inflation for the month, offsetting 0.2% increases in both food prices and shelter. Housing-related costs have been one of the most stubborn components of inflation and make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, so a pullback in the rate of increase is another positive sign.

Stock market futures rose following the release while Treasury yields tumbled.

In addition to the pullback in energy prices and the modest increase for shelter, used vehicle prices decreased 1.5% on the month and were down 10.1% from a year ago. The item was one of the main drivers in the initial surge in inflation back in 2021.

CPI inflation report June 2024: (cnbc.com)

German inflation confirmed at 2.5% in June

Thu, 11 July 2024 at 7:08 am BST

BERLIN (Reuters) - German inflation eased in June to 2.5%, the federal statistics office said on Thursday, confirming preliminary data.

German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, had risen by 2.8% year-on-year in May.

The statistics office gives more detailed monthly data on its website.

German inflation confirmed at 2.5% in June (yahoo.com)

UK economy grew by more than expected in May, helped by house-building

By Reuters 

July 11 (Reuters) - Britain's economic output rose by 0.4% in May, a bigger rise than expected and helped by a jump in housing construction, according to official data that will be welcomed by the new government of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a 0.2% increase for monthly gross domestic product in May.

The data from the Office for National Statistics revealed a broad-based increase in economic output, with the services, manufacturing and construction industries all growing, the latter up by 1.9% on the month, driven by the housing sector.

Over the three months to May, the economy expanded by 0.9%, the strongest reading since the three months to January 2022, compared with the consensus forecast for a 0.7% expansion.

The Bank of England last month said it expected the economy would grow by 0.5% over the second quarter.

"The economy grew strongly in May with all the main sectors seeing increases," ONS Director of Economic Statistics Liz McKeown said. "Many retailers and wholesalers had a good month, with both bouncing back from a weak April."

UK economy grew by more than expected in May, helped by house-building | Reuters

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

‘Stay away’ - UK hospitals tell Covid-19 patients not to visit amid summer outbreak of new FLiRT variants

July 11, 2024

Hospitals have asked people with Covid-19 symptoms to stay away as new variants spread across the UK.

Cases are rising of the FLiRT and LB.1 variants, which have similar symptoms to previous strains.

University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust posted a statement on Monday (8 July): “We are seeing a rise in cases of Covid-19 in London and patients testing positive in UCLH hospitals.

“While we remain open to visitors, please do not visit if you are experiencing symptoms of Covid-19.

“If you do visit, please feel free to wear a mask if you feel more comfortable doing so.

“We will review this situation towards the end of this week, and hope to update this message then.”

Royal Devon NHS posted on X: “We’re seeing an increase in cases of Covid-19 in the community, so please help us to help you and your loved one by not visiting our hospitals if you are showing any symptoms of the virus. Thank you.”

Taken from mutations characterising the KP.3, KP.2, and KP.1.1 Covid variants, the term “FLiRT” is used to collectively describe a group of new strains of the virus that surfaced in April.

The LB.1 variant, which is another Omicron and FLiRT variant, has been reported to cause symptoms similar to the FLiRT strains.

Common symptoms are similar to those from previous strains: fever, coughing, fatigue, loss of taste or smell, sore throat, muscle or body aches, shortness of breath, headache, and a runny nose.

The UK Health Security Agency said in May: “If you have symptoms of a respiratory infection, such as Covid-19, and you have a high temperature or do not feel well enough to go to work or carry out normal activities, you should avoid contact with vulnerable people and stay at home if possible.”

Dr Mariyam Malik, an NHS and private GP at Pall Mall Medical said crowds can contribute to the spread of infections.

“Increased travel and big events such as festivals often result in crowded settings where the virus can spread more easily, and there is no longer any legal restrictions like wearing masks, social distancing,” he said.

‘Stay away’ - UK hospitals tell Covid-19 patients not to visit amid summer outbreak of new FLiRT variants (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New material derived from graphene improves the performance of neuroprostheses

July 10, 2024

After an amputation or a severe nerve injury, patients lose to a greater or lesser extent the ability to move and feel a lost limb, which limits their autonomy in activities of daily living. Currently, the only strategy that allows recovery of the lost functions consists of neuroprostheses: electrodes capable of stimulating the nerves to induce specific sensations, and of recording motor signals that, once decoded, can be sent to a bionic prosthesis.

In the design of neuroprostheses, it is important that the electrodes are small enough that they are selective and interact electrically only with a reduced number of axons in the nerve. Therefore, although they have commonly been constructed from metals such as gold, platinum or iridium oxide, it is necessary to find other materials that have enhanced conductive capacity to allow the creation of even smaller electrode contacts.

This is where graphene and its derivatives come into play; their excellent electrical properties have allowed the development of a new generation of microelectrodes.

Research coordinated by the UAB Institut de Neurociències (INc-UAB) has studied the capacity of a new material derived from graphene, EGNITE, to stimulate and record from the peripheral nerve. Furthermore, its biocompatibility has been validated, which is key for preserving the function of the interface over time.

The findings are published in the journal Advanced Science.

The research was carried out in the Neuroplasticity and Regeneration group of the INc-UAB, led by professor Xavier Navarro of the UAB Department of Cell Biology, Physiology and Immunology, in collaboration with Jose Garrido's research group at the Institut Català de Nanociència i Nanotecnologia (ICN2), which was in charge of developing the EGNITE together with the neural interfaces.

More

New material derived from graphene improves the performance of neuroprostheses (msn.com)

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and will it turn into a momentous weekend? Will England win the European Football Championship? Will a fragile and increasingly confused President Biden withdraw as the Democratic candidate for President next November?  Have a great weekend everyone.

 

The business of banking ought to be simple. If it is hard it is wrong. The only securities which a banker, using money that he may be asked at short notice to repay, ought to touch, are those which are easily saleable and easily intelligible. 

Walter Bagehot.


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