Baltic Dry Index. 2021 -43 Brent Crude 87.20
Spot Gold 2363 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 Wed.
Coming soon to the UK.
I didn't realize how cold it was outside today...
until
I saw socialists with their hands in their own pockets.
In the stock casinos, more wobble at the top?
Japan’s Nikkei
225 declines after hitting fresh all-time highs as Asia markets mostly fall
Asia-Pacific markets were largely lower on Friday,
with Japan’s Nikkei 225 paring
gains after crossing the 41,000 mark and hitting fresh record highs.
The Nikkei saw a volatile session
and was last down 0.29%. The broad-based Topix also faltered from record highs
to drop 0.59%.
Japan’s household
spending for May unexpectedly dipped 1.8% in real terms
compared to the same period last year. Economists polled by Reuters had
estimated a 0.1% rise.
Household spending data is a key
metric for the Bank of Japan’s to assess its goal of realizing a “virtuous
cycle” of rising wages and prices.
Average spending per household in
May was 290,328 yen ($1,799.28), while average monthly income stood at 500,231
yen, up 6.4% in nominal terms and 3% higher in real terms from the previous
year.
Investors will also be assessing
retail sales numbers out from Singapore later today.
South Korea’s Kospi was
1.38% higher, and the small-cap Kosdaq rose 0.91%. The benchmarks are the only
major indexes in positive territory in Asia.
Heavyweight Samsung Electronics on
Friday estimated that its second quarter operating profit will surge almost 15-fold,
mainly due to a rebound in semiconductor prices on the back of the artificial
intelligence boom.
Samsung shares climbed 2.25%,
hitting their highest level since January 2021.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index dropped
1.09%, while mainland China’s CSI300 was down 0.96%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dipped
0.18%.
Overnight in the U.S., markets were closed for the
Independence Day holiday, but futures were little changed ahead of Friday’s
trading session.
Nasdaq
100 futures
were down 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures
were trading marginally below the flatline. Dow Jones
Industrial Average futures
were 0.05% up.
Asia
stock markets: Japan stocks record, Singapore retail sales (cnbc.com)
S&P 500
futures are little changed as investors await jobs data: Live updates
UPDATED THU, JUL 4 2024 6:44 PM EDT
S&P 500
futures are near flat Thursday night as investors readied for Friday’s closely
watched jobs report.
Futures connected to the broad
index sat near their flatline, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1%. Futures
tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19 points, or 0.1%.
Those moves come as traders
geared up for the widely
monitored labor data due Friday morning. Economists polled by
Dow Jones are forecasting nonfarm payroll adds of 200,000 jobs in June and the
unemployment rate to hold steady at 4%. They also expect hourly wages to climb
0.3% from May for an annualized gain of 3.9%.
The report comes as traders
consider the latest economic data pointing to softening in the economy — and
what it means for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions going
forward.
ADP figures released Wednesday
showed less
private payroll growth than anticipated in June, while weekly
jobless claims came in higher than economists forecast. On top of that, a
reading of the service sector from the Institute for Supply Management
unexpectedly indicated a contraction.
“Friday’s payroll report should
help clarify the underlying strength of the labor market,” said Quincy Krosby,
chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Given other evidence of a cooling
economic backdrop ... the payroll report could be increasingly decisive for the
Fed as it seeks a rationale to signal an easing of rates.”
The three major indexes are on
track to finish the holiday-shortened trading week up. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 have
climbed more than 2.5% and 1% in the week, respectively. Both closed
at all-time highs and notched new intraday records on
Wednesday.
The Dow has
lagged this week, adding around 0.5%.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, the UK turns far left as a
global recession looms. Get gold.
UK PM Rishi Sunak
concedes defeat with Labour set for landslide election win: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, JUL 5 2024 12:28 AM EDT
LONDON —
The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party is on course to win a huge parliamentary
majority in the country’s general election, unseating the incumbent
Conservatives after 14 years.
Early on Friday morning, Labour
passed the threshold needed to govern alone as outgoing PM Rishi Sunak conceded
defeat. Keir Starmer, leader of center-left Labour, will
become the country’s next prime minister and declared victory
in the early hours.
Some projections show Labour will
gain its second-largest majority after former Prime Minister Tony Blair’s
179-seat majority in 1997. In comments overnight, Starmer said: “Tonight people
here and around the country have spoken. And they’re ready for change.”
Millions of people across
England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on Thursday voted for their local
representatives in the 650-member House of Commons, the U.K.’s lower house of
parliament. Ballots are still being counted, with constituencies announcing
their winning candidate as soon as votes are tallied.
Here are the seats that have been
declared so far:
More
UK
election 2024 result: Keir Starmer's Labour set to win landslide (cnbc.com)
Biden says 'I'm not
going anywhere' as calls to quit race grow
By Steve Holland , Andrea Shalal and Jeff Mason
July 5,
2024 4:41 AM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters)
- President Joe Biden said "I'm not
going anywhere" as he faced calls by many Democrats to end his re-election
bid, using the Fourth of July celebrations on Thursday to hit back at doubts
about his stamina and mental acuity to continue his campaign.
The 81-year-old Democrat's shaky showing at a June 27 debate
with Republican rival Donald Trumpmeans his every
appearance is now closely scrutinized. Many Democratic voters are worried about
whether he can keep up a grueling pace of work for the next 4-1/2 years and some in his party have urged
him to step aside.
Biden was hosting the annual U.S. Independence Day
festivities at the White House on Thursday, including a barbecue for a few
thousand active-duty military service members and their families.
Biden, in a suit with no necktie, began his remarks
with a forceful “Happy Independence Day!"
---- Abigail Disney,
granddaughter of Walt Disney who founded the company that bears his name (DIS.N) and who has been a major Democratic donor, became the
latest donor to call for Biden to withdraw from the presidential election,
telling CNBC on Thursday that she will halt donations to the Democratic Party
until he does so.
More
Biden
says 'I'm not going anywhere' as calls to quit race grow | Reuters
China
on the brink of disastrous economic meltdown as government bonds tank
July 4, 2024
China's economy
has been dogged by a downturn in the property market and volatile stocks over
recent months, but now it could be on the precipice of a bond bubble burst.
in an unprecedented move, the People's Bank of China
(PBOC) is borrowing bonds with a view to selling them to calm the market. The
failure of US bank SVB in 2023, the biggest of its kind since the 2008 global
financial crash, has served as a warning to China.
In late June this year, PBOC
Governor Pan Gongsheng said at a financial forum: "SVB in the United
States has taught us that the central bank needs to observe and evaluate the
situation of the financial market from a macro-prudential perspective.
"At present, we must pay close attention to the
maturity mismatch and interest rate risks associated with the
large holdings of medium and long-term bonds by some non-bank entities."
The yield on China's onshore 10-year government bond,
which is a benchmark for a wide range of interest rates, plummeted to 2.18 percent on
July 1 - the lowest since records began in 2002.
Meanwhile, yields on 20-year and
30-year bonds are also flirting with historic lows. This comes against a
backdrop of low consumer confidence and a weak property market.
That said, things may be turning
round from a property perspective, with almost 60 percent of the top 100
property developers seeing a month-on-month increase in home sale values in
June.
One reason
behind the minor recovery could be policy shifts. At the end of last month,
Beijing joined other cities, including Shanghai, in easing home buying policies
and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for first-time home buyers to 20
percent.
More
China on the brink of disastrous economic meltdown as government bonds tank (msn.com)
Up next, “only in America” as they say.
The Jiggle Is Up: Bosses Bust
Workers Who Fake Computer Activity
Companies’
productivity-tracking tools are getting more sophisticated in detecting when
remote workers are pretending they’re busy
July 2, 2024
9:00 pm ET
It’s getting harder to outsmart the digital minders
at work.
The rise of remote
work and, in turn, employee-monitoring
software sparked a boom in mouse and keyboard jigglers and other
hacks to help staffers fake computer activity—often so they can step
away to do laundry or a school pickup.
Now
some companies are cracking down on the subterfuge, deploying tools that can
better spot the phony busywork.
The
latest salvo in this productivity-tracking arms race came in a recent
regulatory filing from Wells
Fargo. In the disclosure, first reported on by Bloomberg News, the bank
said it had fired more than a dozen employees in its wealth and investment
management unit for allegedly simulating keyboard activity to create the
“impression of active work.”
Wells Fargo declined to say exactly how it detected
the suspicious activity or whether the workers were remote, only that it “does
not tolerate unethical behavior.” Across Reddit and other social-media forums,
the report sparked angst, and questions. “Anyone else concerned?” wrote one
Reddit user. Another, more to the point, asked: “Can IT detect my mouse
jiggler?”
The answer, increasingly, is yes. The share of
companies using some
kind of electronic worker-surveillance system surged during the
pandemic, reaching nearly 50% in 2023, according to a survey of nearly 300
medium to large employers by research and advisory firm Gartner. These systems,
which track how active workers are at their computers, have long been able to
detect some installed software or extra hardware.
More of these software systems, such as Teramind and
Hubstaff, now also use machine-learning tools that can identify repetitive
cursor movements or irregular patterns in someone’s computer activity. In
addition, some worker-monitoring software can randomly scrape screen images to
check whether screen activity is changing as the computer mouse moves.
Not so undetectable
Most mouse jigglers on the market are detectable,
says Ilya
Kleyman, Teramind’s chief growth officer.
A typical jiggler works like one sold under the brand
Tech8 USA for $19.99 on Amazon—essentially a mini turntable that swivels the
mouse in different directions. On Tech8 USA’s site, it claims to be
undetectable since it doesn’t require installing software on a work computer
and shifts the mouse around at seemingly random intervals and speeds.
Retailers also sell devices that can manually tap a
key or mouse at random.
Neither technique is likely to foil Teramind’s
algorithms, Kleyman says. “It won’t look like normal human mouse cursor
activity that regularly clicks, drags, etc.,” he says. Plus, the software can
flag artificial activity in general, such as when a cursor is active over the
same static Wikipedia page for hours on end.
More
The Jiggle Is Up: Bosses Bust Workers Who Fake Computer Activity - WSJ
Finally, more on the North American crops.
US
farmers hang on to corn and soybeans amid price downturn
By Karen Braun July 3, 2024 9:18 AM GMT+1
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. corn
and soybean prices have tumbled to four-year lows and producers’ disappointment
with the situation is reflected in their unusually massive stockpiles.
Farmers’ hesitation to sell product could make
grain availability appear tighter in local markets, but any rallies could have
farmers ready to cure supply needs, potentially limiting the degree or duration
of price strength.
Survey work published by the U.S. Department of
Agriculture on Friday showed June 1 U.S. corn stocks at 4.99 billion bushels, a
four-year high, up 22% from a year earlier and up 7% from the 10-year average
for June 1.
But 61% of those corn supplies was held on farms,
the largest June 1 share since 1999 and well above the decade average of 52%.
Similarly, some 48% of June 1 soybean stocks was held on farms, the largest
percentage for that date since 2006 and above the 10-year average of 35%.
Total June 1 soy stocks also landed 22% above the
year-ago levels and reached four-year highs, but the 970 million bushels were
about 1% lower than the decade mean.
U.S. farmers have held a larger-than-normal portion
of corn and soybean stocks throughout this marketing year, but that margin
widened in the third quarter between March and May, suggesting farmers have
been increasingly stingy sellers.
Farms also housed 61% of U.S. corn supplies on
March 1, a 19-year high for the date, though the decade average is 56%. For
soybeans, some 51% of March 1 supplies was on farms, a 17-year high but also a
bit closer than June 1 to its decade average of 42%.
---- U.S. farmers have
reduced the amount of area under corn by 3% from 2023, but they increased
soybean plantings by roughly the same degree, which could further add to the
soy stock build if crop yields are strong this year.
Only three major U.S. corn states recorded total
June 1 stocks below the recent five-year average: Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas
with respective shortfalls of 3%, 17% and 20%.
Iowa’s 2024 corn plantings are unchanged from 2023,
but Nebraska’s are up 1.5% and Kansas plantings are up almost 10%, and they are
the only two major states with year-on-year area increases.
More
US farmers hang on to corn and soybeans amid price
downturn | Reuters
After
a very wet spring, crops now desperately need rain
No
rain is in sight and record high temperatures pose a threat to XtremeAg
farmers’ crops.
Published
on July 2, 2024
No rain is in sight and record high temperatures pose a
threat to XtremeAg farmers’ crops.
More
After a very wet spring, crops now desperately need
rain (agriculture.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wall Street sage issues grim warning about the S&P
500 and the chances of a recession - here is what it means for 401(K)s
|
A top banking analyst has predicted that US stocks could
soon plunge by 30 percent.
BCA Research chief global
strategist Peter Berezin told clients last week that the US economy could fall into a recession later this year
or early 2025.
If the US does fall into recession as he
predicts, Berezin says the S&P 500 will fall to as low as 3,750 -
a 30 percent drop on its current levels.
Berezin's concern
for the economy is rooted in the belief that the labor market could slow
substantially in the coming months.
Lower employment
would weigh heavily on consumer spending, a key impetus for economic growth.
A crash would also
affect American's retirement accounts.
Most have at least
some of their 401(K) and Individual Retirement Account invested in the Dow
Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.
'The reason the US
avoided a recession in 2022 and 2023 was because the economy was operating
along the steep side of the Phillips curve,' he wrote in the note.
The Philips curve
is an economic theory that states there is an inverse relationship between
unemployment and inflation, when the former goes up the latter will fall.
'When the labor
supply curve is nearly vertical, weaker labor demand will mainly lead to lower
wage growth and falling job openings.
---- Berezin also told the firm's clients that further
economic pain could be on the way as a result of slowing growth in Europe and
China.
Such a scenario would, he argued, weaken overall global
growth and cause international stocks to fall.
The gloomy argument comes after the Dow Jones hit a
record high in May, topping 40,000 for the first time ever. At 39,331 is
currently just below the milestone.
The S&P 500 is up more than 16 percent so far this
year and the tech-heavy Nasdaq up a whopping 22 percent so far.
The upward surge has also worried
some other analysts.
Among them is Sam Stovall, CFRA Research's chief
investment strategist who last month warned that stocks are headed for a
'correction.'
'I am getting increasingly concerned that we have to
endure another decline of 5 percent or more before the year is out,' Stovall
told Yahoo.
In recent weeks, top bankers and even a leading former
CEO have issued chilling warnings about the US economy.
In May, Jamie Dimon - head
of the world's biggest bank JPMorgan Chase - said that the worst
outcome for the US economy would be 'stagflation'.
This is when inflation continues to go up, but unemployment is high
and growth slows.
Economists consider stagflation, last seen in the US in
the 1970s, to be worse than a recession. It would send stocks down, hitting
401(K)s and other retirement savings
'I am getting increasingly concerned that we have to
endure another decline of 5 percent or more before the year is out,' Stovall
said in June.
The upward surge has also
worried Sam Stovall, CFRA Research's chief investment strategist who last
month warned that stocks are headed for a 'correction.'
'I am getting increasingly concerned that we have to
endure another decline of 5 percent or more before the year is out,' Stovall
said in June.
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Do hospital masks mean Covid is
making a comeback?
July 4, 2024
Some hospitals have
reintroduced mask wearing after a spike in patients being admitted with
Covid-19, so should we be worried the virus is making a comeback?
Since Monday, patients, visitors and staff are required to wear masks in
clinical areas at the Royal Stoke University Hospital and County Hospital in
Stafford.
In Worcestershire, the Acute Hospitals NHS Trust said the measure was
necessary "to protect patients, their loved ones and hospital staff from
risk of infection" .
They are currently treating 65 patients with Covid-19, the highest
number since December 2023. Patients are also in hospital for longer so that
would indicate they are sicker too.
In Staffordshire,
there are 108 patients with the virus. At Royal Stoke Hospital two wards are
currently full with Covid patients.
But it is difficult to tell if this is some sort of "summer Covid
wave" because we are doing a lot less testing than we used to.
Most of the testing these days is done of hospital patients when they
are admitted and yes, we are seeing a bit of an uptick, indeed it might be
higher than the numbers suggest as not all new patients are tested.
More
Do hospital masks mean Covid is making a comeback? - BBC News
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World’s
biggest sodium-ion battery switches on, able to power 12,000 homes
July
3, 2024
The world’s largest energy
storage facility ising next-generation sodium-ion batteries has
begun operations in China.
The 100,000 kWh project in
the Hubei province is capable of storing enough electricity to power 12,000
homes on a single charge.
It is the first phase of the
massive Datang Hubei Sodium Ion New Energy Storage Power Station, which spans
an area of 30 acres - or roughly 15 football pitches.
Sodium-ion batteries offer a number of benefits compared to conventional
lithium-ion batteries, as they are both cheaper and safer than the batteries
found in smartphones and electric cars.
The sodium
(Na) required to build them is also 500 times more abundant than lithium. while
also holding the potential for greater charge and efficiency than Li-ion
batteries.
While adoption remains
relatively low, a series of technological breakthroughs in recent years have now made it possible to use
them in commercial settings on a massive scale.
“Sodium-ion batteries have
excellent safety and low-temperature operating performance,” said Cui Yongle, a
project manager at Datang Hubei Sodium Ion Energy Storage.
“They can still guarantee 85
per cent charge and discharge efficiency at minus 20 degrees Celsius, which is
unmatched by other batteries. They can also guarantee 1,500 charge and
discharge cycles at a high temperature of 60 degrees Celsius. Their puncture
resistance and impact resistance are much better than that of ordinary
batteries.”
Batteries are essential for
optimising renewable
energy sources like solar and wind,
as they allow power to be stored during periods of over-production before being
released when there is no Sun or wind.
According to the
International Energy Agency (IEA), grid-scale storage will play a critical role
in achieving net zero emissions targets by 2050.
“While progress is being
made, projected growth in grid-scale storage capacity is not currently on track
with the Net Zero Scenario and requires greater efforts,” the IEA noted in its
2023 clean energy progress report.
World’s biggest sodium-ion battery switches on, able
to power 12,000 homes (msn.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Child: When I grow up I want to be a socialist.
Parent:
You can’t do both.
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