Baltic
Dry Index. 2050 +19 Brent Crude 85.33
Spot Gold 2322 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 +0.01
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
I will make such a wonderful India that all Americans will stand in line to get a visa for India.
Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister. Politicians!
We are living in dynamic, if uncertain times. Political change, for better or worse, is sweeping the USA, the EU, France and on Thursday the UK.
Adding to the drama, I think the US economy entered recession in April or at the latest May.
Add in a China struggling with a property market collapse.
A Japan with a 300 percent debt to GDP ratio and an EU economy blown up by the USA, who blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany, destroying the German cheap energy economy that was the paymaster of Europe.
We are living in the modern version of October 1781. A world turned upside down.
But first, the stock casinos.
Asia markets mixed as China manufacturing
contracts again, Japan revises first quarter GDP downward
Asia-Pacific markets started the second half of
the year mixed as investors assessed June business activity data from China as
well as Japan’s business confidence readings.
China released its official PMI figures on the weekend, with
its manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.5, unchanged from May and marking its
second straight month in contraction territory.
A private survey of manufacturing
activity, however, diverged from the official numbers, showing the sharpest improvement in business conditions in
three years. The S&P Caixin PMI climbed to 51.8 in June compared with 51.7
in May.
On Monday, Japan revised its first-quarter GDP contraction
to 2.9% year on year, from 1.8% reported earlier. GDP data for the third and
fourth quarters of 2023 were also revised downward.
In a technical note, the country’s cabinet
office said the revision was due to new construction investment data.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.26% to a 3-month high while the the broad-based Topix climbed 0.49%.
Confidence
among big Japanese manufacturers improved in the second
quarter, with the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey at +13 compared to +11 in the
first quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected it to be at +12.
Non-manufacturers’ sentiment stood
at +33, matching market forecasts and down from +34 in the previous quarter.
This was also the first time in four years that confidence among
non-manufacturers worsened.
South Korea’s Kospi was
flat, but the small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.76%. The country saw its factory activity expand at its fastest pace since
February 2022, with its June manufacturing PMI up to 52.0 from 51.6.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was down
marginally, and Australia’s S&P/ASX
200 fell 0.23%.
Hong Kong markets are closed Monday
for a public holiday.
Overnight in the U.S., all three major indexes
ticked down as traders looked at a “near perfect” set of inflation data,
according to an industry expert.
Inflation in May slowed to its
lowest annual rate in more than three years, with the core
personal consumption expenditures price index, up just 0.1% last
month and 2.6% higher from the prior year and in line with Dow Jones estimates.
The core PCE index, which strips
out prices of food and energy, is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation
measure. Headline PCE, which includes food and energy, was flat on the month
and up 2.6% on an annual basis — also in line with expectations.
“From the market’s perspective,
today’s PCE report was near perfect,” said David Donabedian, chief investment
officer of CIBC Private Wealth U.S. “This was unambiguously a positive report.”
The S&P 500 slid
0.41%, while the Nasdaq
Composite declined 0.71%. The two averages hit new all-time
intraday highs earlier in the session before pulling back. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped
0.12%.
Asia stock markets: China PMI, Japan Tankan, South Korea trade (cnbc.com)
Now back to our world turned upside down. What if Joe won’t go?
Far right wins first
round in France election, run-off horsetrading begins
Updated
PARIS (Reuters) -Marine Le Pen's
far-right National Rally (RN) party scored historic gains to win the first
round of France's parliamentary election on Sunday, exit polls showed, but the
final result will depend on days of horsetrading before next week's run-off.
The RN was seen winning around
34% of the vote, exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe showed, in a
huge setback for President Emmanuel
Macron who had called the snap election after his
ticket was trounced by the RN in European Parliament elections earlier this
month.
The RN's share of the vote was
comfortably ahead of leftist and centrist rivals, including Macron's Together
alliance, whose bloc was seen winning 20.5%-23%. The New Popular Front (NFP), a
hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29% of the
vote, the exit polls showed.
The exit polls were in line with
opinion surveys ahead of the election, and were met with jubilation by Le Pen's
supporters. However, they provided little clarity on whether the
anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit"
with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off.
A longtime pariah for many in
France, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. Le Pen has sought
to clean up the image of a party known for racism and antisemitism, a tactic
that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing
concerns over immigration.
At Le Pen's Henin-Beaumont
constituency in northern France, supporters waved French flags and sung the
Marseillaise.
"The French have shown their
willingness to turn the page on a contemptuous and corrosive power," Le
Pen told the cheering crowd.
The RN's chances of winning power
next week will depend on the political dealmaking made by its rivals over the
coming days. In the past, centre-right and centre-left parties have teamed up
to keep the RN from power, but that dynamic, known as the "republican
front," is less certain than ever.
If no candidate reaches 50% in
the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second
round, as well as all those with 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off,
whoever wins the most votes take the constituency.
High turnout on Sunday suggests
France is heading for a record number of three-way run-offs. These generally
benefit the RN much more than two-way contests, experts say.
More
Far
right wins first round in France election, run-off horsetrading begins
(yahoo.com)
Top aides shielded Biden from staff, but couldn't hide the
debate
June 30, 2024
Joe Biden's close aides have carefully shielded him from
people inside and outside the White House since the beginning of his
presidency.
Why it matters: The intermittent access has resulted in
many current and former White House aides being shocked at the 81-year-old
president's limitations at the debate Thursday night.
Driving the news: Current and former White
House aides are feeling whiplash — and now questioning whether Biden could
fulfill a second term.
- "It's time for Joe to go."
That's what Chandler West, the White House's deputy director of
photography from January 2021 to May 2022, wrote in an Instagram story
after the debate.
- "I know many of these people and
how the White House operates. They will say he has a 'cold' or just
experienced a 'bad night,' but for weeks and months, in private, they have
all said what we saw last night — Joe is not as strong as he was just a couple
of years ago," West wrote, according to screenshots obtained by
Axios.
- Reached by phone, West said he wrote
the post because "the debate was not the first bad day, and it's not
gonna be the last." He declined to comment further.
- The
president and his team have acknowledged Biden had a bad night but said he
had a cold.
Zoom in: Biden's behavior stunned many in the White House in part because
Biden's closest aides — often led by Jill Biden's top aide, Anthony Bernal, and
deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini — took steps early in his term to
essentially rope off the president.
- Even the White House's residence
staff, which serves the first family in the mansion's living quarters, has
been kept at arm's length.
- A former residence official told Axios
that Jill Biden was "so protective of the president, and then Anthony
just protects her, and they often wouldn't let us do anything for
them."
- "The separation between the
family and the residence staff was so big, so divided," the former
official said. "It's not supposed to be and usually isn't, even in
the Trump White House."
More
Top aides shielded Biden, but couldn't hide the debate (axios.com)
Next, how the Democrats could replace an
elderly President Joe.
How Democrats could
replace Biden as presidential candidate before November
By Jeff Mason June 29, 2024 11:20 PM GMT+1
WASHINGTON, June 28 (Reuters) - After
President Joe Biden's shaky performance at the
debate with former President Donald Trump on Thursday night, some Democrats
openly questioned whether he should be replaced as their candidate for the 2024
election.
There
is a process for doing so, but it would be messy.
For
answers on how that would work, Reuters spoke to Elaine Kamarck, a senior
fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, a Democratic National Committee
(DNC) member, and author of the book "Primary Politics" about the
presidential nominating process.
Q: WHAT OPTIONS DO DEMOCRATS HAVE?
A:
The Democratic Party has had no real
Plan B for
Biden as its presidential candidate. He ran virtually unopposed for the party's
presidential nomination this year.
He
will not be nominated
officially until
later this summer, so there is still time to make a change and a handful of
scenarios to enact one: Biden could decide himself to step aside before he is
nominated; he could be challenged by others who try to win over the delegates
he has accrued; or he could withdraw after the Democratic convention in Chicago
in August, leaving the Democratic National Committee to elect someone to run
against Trump in his place.
Q: SO WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
A:
Right now, the process largely depends on Biden. He would have to agree to step
down or face a challenger this late in the process who would try to force him
to do so. So far Biden has shown no
indications of
wanting to step aside and no opponents have challenged him directly.
In
fact some of his top potential replacements - Vice President Kamala Harris and
California Governor Gavin Newsom - spoke passionately in his
defense after the debate, serving in a surrogate role that showcased their
support but also contrasted their smooth delivery with his faltering one on the
Atlanta debate stage.
Q: WHAT HAPPENS IF BIDEN STEPS DOWN?
A: Biden has spent the last several months accruing nearly 4,000
Democratic delegates by winning primary elections in U.S. states and
territories.
Those delegates would normally vote for him, but the rules do not bind
or force them to do so; delegates can vote with their conscience, which means
they could throw their vote to someone else.
If Biden "releases" his delegates by stepping aside, there
could be a competition among other Democratic candidates to become the nominee.
More
How Democrats could replace Biden as presidential candidate before November | Reuters
Finally, the Atlantic hurricane season gets
off to an alarming start.
Beryl, earliest Category
4 hurricane on record, brings perilous winds to Caribbean
By Reuters July 1, 2024 5:24 AM GMT+1
June 30 (Reuters) - The
"extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm Hurricane Beryl barrelled
across the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday night toward the Caribbean's Windward
Islands, where it is expected to bring life-threatening winds and flash
flooding on Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
The first hurricane of the 2024 season was located about 150
miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados on Sunday night, with maximum sustained
winds of 130 mph (215 kph), the NHC said in an advisory.
"Beryl is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into
the eastern Caribbean," the NHC said in its latest advisory.
The center of the hurricane is expected to travel
across the Windward Islands on Monday morning as a Category 4 storm, the
second-strongest level on a five-step scale, bringing "potentially
catastrophic wind damage" to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.
It is rare for a major
hurricane to appear this early in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs
from June 1 to Nov. 30. On Sunday, Beryl became the earliest Category 4
hurricane on record, beating Hurricane Dennis, which became a Category 4 on
July 8, 2005, according to NHC data.
Hurricane warnings have been
issued in Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada
and Tobago. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Dominica, Trinidad, and
parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Beryl, earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, brings perilous winds to Caribbean | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China's June factory
activity contracts again, services slows
By Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang June 30, 2024 4:21 AM GMT+1
BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity fell for a second month in June while services activity slipped to a
five-month low, an official survey showed on Sunday, keeping alive calls for
further stimulus as the economy struggles to get back on its feet.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purchasing
managers' index (PMI), at 49.5 in June, was unchanged from May, below the
50-mark separating growth from contraction and in line with a median forecast
of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.
"Actual industrial activity should be stronger
than the data suggests as our observation is that the official PMI fails to
fully capture the current export momentum, which has been the major economic
driver this year," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist
Intelligence Unit.
Still, Xu added that external and domestic demand
remains relatively inadequate to absorb China's manufacturing capacity and this
will prevent a recovery in producer prices.
While a sub-index of
production was above 50 in June, other indexes of new orders, raw material
stocks, employment, supplier delivery times and new export orders were all in
contractionary territory, the NBS survey showed.
China's exports exceeded
forecasts in May, but analysts said the jury is still out on whether
export sales are sustainable given growing trade
tension between Beijing and Western economies. Meanwhile, a
protracted property crisis continues to drag on domestic demand.
More
China's June factory activity contracts again,
services slows | Reuters
Nearly 1 in 3 Americans Earning Over $150,000 Worry About Making Ends
Meet: Fed Report
More
than 15 percent of people earning over $150,000 took an additional job over the
past year to cope with tighter financial conditions.
6/28/2024 Updated: 6/28/2024
Americans in
upper-income groups are concerned about their ability to pay bills, with more
than 15 percent of this demographic taking up additional jobs over the past
year, according to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
As of April 2024, 32.5 percent of
respondents earning over $150,000 annually were worried about making ends meet
over the next six months, up from 21.7 percent in April of last year, the June survey showed.
This
percentage is higher than for those in the income groups of $100,000 to
$149,999, $70,000 to $99,999, and $40,000 to $69,999. Only individuals who
earned less than $40,000, the lowest income group, were more worried than the
$150,000-plus group.
Among all
income levels, the percentage of people anxious about their ability to pay
bills was higher in April 2024 compared to a year ago. The share of respondents
concerned about making ends meet rose among those already paying their bills on
time, with the increase most prevalent among people who are younger, female, or
in higher income groups.
In April last
year, 20.7 percent of individuals who could pay all of their bills were worried
about the next six months. In 2024, this jumped to 26.2 percent.
The various
income groups behaved differently in how they handled their tighter financial
situations over the past year.
Among the
$150,000 group, 15.3 percent took an additional job, the highest among all
income levels. This group borrowed the least from formal sources but was the
second-highest when it came to borrowing from family or friends.
People earning
less than $40,000 ranked at the bottom in terms of taking up an additional job.
However, they ranked second-highest in borrowing from formal sources and were
at the top in terms of borrowing from family or friends.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
UK
faces KP.3 Covid variant surge: Symptoms and health advice
June 30, 2024
Fears are mounting as a potential
summer Covid wave hits the UK, with the emergence of a new variant, KP. 3,
which has been on the rise.
The BBC has highlighted an uptick in
infections, and hospitals have noted an increase in admissions due to the
virus, with this more aggressive strain being identified in the UK after it
prompted a significant spike in cases in the USA.
The KP. 3 variant is part of
a novel cluster of COVID-19 variants, informally dubbed FLiRT, derived from
their genetic mutations.
These
variants are a subset of the JN lineage. In the US, the KP3 variant has been
linked to a surge in Covid cases and is now also present in the UK, albeit in
smaller numbers. Hospital admissions have climbed to 3.31 per 100,000 people as
of the week ending 16 June, up from 2.67 per 100,000 the week before,
reports the Mirror.
The UK Health Security Agency
(UKHSA) has said it is waiting for "more data" regarding these new
variants to fully grasp their severity and infectiousness. Hospital admissions
have seen a 24% increase in the week concluding on Sunday, according to the
most recent figures. CDC spokesperson Rosa Norman has said the symptoms of KP.
3 mirror those of the earlier JN.
----The NHS is urging
individuals with symptoms of covid to stay at home and avoid contact with
others, especially if they have a high temperature or feel too unwell for work
or school.
Vaccinations are being highlighted as
a key defence against severe illness and hospitalisation from both flu and
COVID-19, with a particular call for over-75s, those with weakened immune
systems, and care home residents to get their booster jabs.
More
UK faces KP.3 Covid variant surge: Symptoms and health
advice (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Electric car battery charges in under five minutes in track test
28 June 2024
An electric car
battery developed by UK start-up Nyobolt has successfully charged from 10% to
80% in four minutes and 37 seconds in its first live demonstration.
It was achieved with a specially-built concept sports car on a test
track in Bedford, and is part of industry-wide efforts to get electric vehicles
(EVs) charging more quickly.
By comparison, an existing Tesla supercharger can charge a car battery
to 80% in 15-20 minutes.
Experts say eliminating so-called "range anxiety" is key to
increasing uptake of EVs - but also stress the importance of improving the
charging infrastructure.
“Developing technology that enables people to charge more quickly, which
chimes with the time it currently takes to re-fuel a car – is really
important," Paul Shearing, Professor of Sustainable Energy Engineering at
Oxford University, told the BBC.
But he added there needed to be more chargers of all types.
“People are going to want fast-charging infrastructure, independent of
what car they’re using – everyone wants to do this more quickly,” he said.
The sports car the Nyobolt battery was fitted to - which was tested over
two days this week - achieved a range of 120 miles after four minutes
A Tesla charged to 80% would typically have a range of up to 200 miles.
Dr Sai Shivareddy,
co-founder of Nyobolt, told the BBC he was pleased with the results but
admitted that the tests had been “nerve-wracking”.
The demo was carried out live in front of an invited audience of
industry professionals for the first time - with a few hitches along the way.
Challenges included the UK heatwave, a failure in the concept car’s
cooling system, and a standard on-site charger that was not made by Nyobolt.
These factors prevented the firm from recreating laboratory results, in
which it says the battery can charge from 0% to 100% in six minutes.
Nonetheless, Dr Shivareddy described the event as “a big milestone for
electrification”, and joked that his own car was still charging, having plugged
it in when he arrived earlier that day.
Nyobolt says it does not intend to manufacture its own vehicles, and
plans to partner with existing car brands, with the battery potentially inside
EVs “at small scale” within a year.
The powerful 350kW DC superfast chargers that it requires are publicly
available in the UK but are not yet widespread.
The firm also claims it has minimised degradation - it says the battery
still charges to 80% after 4,000 cycles.
More
Electric car battery charges in under five minutes in track test - BBC
News
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Officeholders are the agents of the people, not their masters.
Grover Cleveland.
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