Baltic
Dry Index. 2050 +19 Brent
Crude 86.41
Spot
Gold 2327 U S 2 Year Yield 4.71 +0.01
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
After all, the wrong road always leads somewhere.
George Bernard Shaw. Socialist.
A
historical weekend or a hysterical weekend?
Will
this turn into a momentous political weekend on both sides of the Atlantic?
Will
President Biden Joe Biden, step down as presidential candidate Biden, or
be forced by his campaign donors to step down?
Or
will he defy his campaign donors and stumble on to almost certain defeat? But
supposing he won in November, what then? Four more years of cognitive, bungling
world leadership decline?
Will
French voters on Sunday trash President Macron’s party in the first round of parliamentary
elections. What then then in round two the following Sunday.
Later
on Thursday July 4th, as the USA celebrates Independence Day, UK
voters get the chance to trash the governing UK Conservative Party in the UK
general election.
In
Moscow and Beijing and many capital cities, their leaders must be smiling that
they never have to face real elections.
New York Times editorial board urges Biden to drop
out of presidential race
The New York Times editorial board on Friday urged President Joe Biden to exit
the presidential election contest against Donald Trump, citing the
Democrat’s poor
debate performance the previous night.
“The president appeared on Thursday
night as the shadow of a great public servant,” the Times editorial said. “He
struggled to explain what he would accomplish in a second term. He struggled to
respond to Mr. Trump’s provocations. He struggled to hold Mr. Trump accountable
for his lies, his failures and his chilling plans. More than once, he struggled
to make it to the end of a sentence.”
“Mr. Biden has said that he is the
candidate with the best chance of taking on this threat of tyranny and
defeating it. His argument rests largely on the fact that he beat Mr. Trump in
2020,” it said. “That is no longer a sufficient rationale for why Mr.
Biden should be the Democratic nominee this year.”
The stunning editorial came a day
after Biden gave a blundering
performance in his first debate against Trump in the 2024 White House race.
″It should be remembered that Mr.
Biden challenged Mr. Trump to this verbal duel,″ the editorial
said. “He set the rules, and he insisted on a date months earlier than any
previous general election debate. He understood that he needed to address
longstanding public concerns about his mental acuity and that he needed to do
so as soon as possible.”
“The truth Mr. Biden needs to
confront now is that he failed his own test.”
The editorial comes as a number of
Democrats and fundraisers
consider pushing for Biden to step aside in the contest.
----Biden, for his part, showed no indication
he was considering exiting the race Friday.
While nodding at his problematic debate
performance, Biden doubled down on criticism of Trump in a speech on North
Carolina and in social media posts on X.
More
New
York Times editorial board urges Biden to drop out of presidential race
(cnbc.com)
Biden debate flop leads Democrats to call for new
nominee — but replacing him is tough to do
President Joe Biden’s raspy,
unfocused, often inarticulate and widely panned debate
performance stoked deep anxiety among Democrats — and caused
some commentators
and fundraisers to openly call for a new nominee to run against
former President Donald
Trump.
But replacing Biden as the party’s
pick less than five months out from Election Day carries enormous political
risks and would be difficult, if not impossible, to pull off.
Right now, the only likely way
Biden could be replaced is if he willingly ends his campaign.
And Biden’s aides and top
Democratic officials say the 81-year-old incumbent has no plans to do so.
If he did drop out, Democrats have
yet to identify a clear alternative candidate to swap in.
But the panic among donors and
party officials after watching Biden falter Thursday night in his debate
against Trump has led some of them to take steps to get Biden out of the race.
There are already discussions among
Democratic fundraisers about trying to convince congressional leaders — Senate
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in particular — to urge Biden to announce to drop
out, according to people familiar with the matter who were granted anonymity to
speak freely.
Schumer, D-N.Y., is a top target for donors making
that pitch because he privately has voiced concerns about Biden’s standings in
presidential election polls, those people said.
Schumer was worried before the
debate that Biden and Trump were statistically tied nationally, despite the
Republican challenger’s conviction in
his New York criminal hush money trial.
----“Democrats
are in a very difficult situation because it’s late in the campaign for a
change,” said Meena Bose, director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study
of the American Presidency at Hofstra University, in an interview with CNBC.
----However, even if Biden backed Harris to
replace him ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August, there is no
guarantee that the delegates he has won so far will shift their support to her.
Biden has won nearly all of the
roughly 4,000 Democratic-pledged delegates, far
exceeding the threshold to make him the party nominee.
If Biden refuses to drop out before
August, the only opportunity to boot him as nominee would be at the Democratic
National Convention that month.
It is technically possible that
Biden’s delegates could abandon him en masse then and throw open the convention
to nominate another candidate.
Some Democrats who want an
alternative to Biden but are concerned about Harris’ relatively low opinion
polls and rocky campaign history have looked to California Gov. Gavin Newsom,
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and others as possible
contenders.
But blocking Biden from the nomination is highly
improbable, as delegates tend to be strong supporters of their chosen
candidate.
“That is probably the worst-case
scenario,” Bose said. “If the Democrats are going to have a change at the top
of the ticket, President Biden has to endorse it and, frankly, probably
initiate it.”
The DNC rules allow for the party to select
another presidential nominee, but only in the “event of death, resignation or
disability” that leaves the role vacant.
More
Biden
debate sparks Democratic nominee replacement talk (cnbc.com)
We just witnessed the end of Joe
Biden’s presidency
By Post Editorial Board Published June 27, 2024, 10:52 p.m. ET
Millions just witnessed the end
of a presidency live on television.
Joe Biden’s performance during the debate was
embarrassing.
Whenever CNN put him up on the split screen, he had a thousand-yard stare.
He didn’t look old.
He looked ancient.
“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” former
President Donald Trump noted at one point, “and I don’t think he knows what he
said, either.”
At one point, Biden just froze.
The administration can’t say it’s a “cheap fake” — everyone saw it
happen.
The sound you heard last night was Democratic operatives everywhere
screaming at their televisions.
Biden can’t survive this.
It is political malpractice to let him continue to run for re-election.
It is national malpractice
to let him continue.
Biden spent an entire week preparing for this debate, and this is the
best he could do.
That should terrify everyone.
Let’s say that, shockingly, Democrats don’t intervene to replace President Biden as their candidate.
Say, implausibly, 81-year-old Biden wins.
He won’t be getting any sharper.
During a second term, our president would continue to deteriorate,
incapable of making proper decisions.
That would be a disaster for the United States.
On policy, Biden had no answer to the inflation or the border disaster,
two of the most important issues to voters.
But, sadly, that’s almost beside the point.
Biden was so mumbling, so doddering, so lacking in command of the facts
that it overshadowed everything.
Asked about
his age, Biden didn’t defend his acuity, instead
reminiscing about the old days, we think in the 1800s.
No wonder the White House keeps him hidden, away from the press
and public events.
The Democratic elite are pulling a con job on the American people, and
it was exposed last night.
We
just witnessed the end of Joe Biden's presidency (nypost.com)
France’s election has the ability to rock wider European
stocks, Citi strategist says
France’s parliamentary election has already rattled
investors as the country’s risk premium rises — but two
possible scenarios have still not been priced in by markets and could impact
stocks in the wider European region, according to Citi.
“Our model suggests that the market
is pricing in something between a benign outcome and a gridlock ... not
completely, but we are a few percentage points away probably from fully pricing
the gridlock,” Beata Manthey, the bank’s head of global equity strategy, told
CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
“However, the market is not priced
in for far-right or far-left majority,” Manthey said.
The tax
and spending plans of both the hard-right Rassemblement
National (RN, or National Rally) party and the left-wing Nouveau Front
Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front) coalition are a key cause of concern over
future bond market volatility. Some economists have warned that if either were
to form a majority and quickly push through the majority of their proposals, it
could tip over into a debt crisis.
Both parties are seen
outperforming the centrist coalition containing President
Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party in Sunday’s first-round vote. However, the
path from there looks deeply uncertain.
A benign outcome from a market
perspective could involve the centrists finding some path to victory, or a hung
parliament in which no party can progress with their agenda.
Citi performed a scenario analysis
of different outcomes and what they could mean for Paris’s CAC 40 stock
market index — also based on potential movements in the spread between French
and German bond yields, which hit a 12-year high Friday.
“The outcome is still quite
unclear, we only have polling for the first round of the election. So we’ll
know much more on Sunday evening,” Manthey said.
“Let’s put the announcement of the
election in the context of the positioning of the investors. Europe has been a
very popular market, has been outperforming, international investors have been
shifting away from the U.S. to Europe, positioning has been stretched or net
long, extended long, especially on the European banks. And that has all unwound
now to neutral, but it’s not negative,” she said.
European stocks are trading close
to a 40% discount to the U.S., a “huge” gap compared with a historical average
of around 15% to 20%, she said.
More
France's
election has the ability to rock wider European stocks: Citi (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a
year ago, as expected
An important economic measure for the Federal
Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual
rate in more than three years.
The core personal consumption
expenditures price index increased just a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the
month and was up 2.6% from a year ago, the latter number down 0.2 percentage
point from the April level, according to a Commerce Department report.
Both numbers were in line with the
Dow Jones estimates. May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which
was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Fed’s 2%
target.
Including food and energy, headline inflation was flat
on the month and also up 2.6% on an annual basis. Those readings also were in
line with expectations.
“It is just additional news that monetary policy
is working, inflation is gradually cooling,” San Francisco Fed President Mary
Daly told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during a “Squawk Box” interview.
“That’s a relief for businesses and households who’ve been struggling with
persistently high inflation. It’s good news for how policy is working.”
The Fed focuses on the PCE
inflation reading as opposed to the more widely followed consumer price index
from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. PCE is a broader
inflation measure and accounts for changes in consumer behavior, such as substituting
their purchases when prices rise.
While the central bank officially
follows headline PCE, officials generally stress the core reading as a better
gauge of longer-term inflation trends.
Outside of the inflation numbers,
the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal income rose 0.5% on
the month, stronger than the 0.4% estimate. Consumer spending, however,
increased 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% forecast.
Prices were held in check during
the month by a 0.4% decline for goods and a 2.1% slide in energy, which offset
a 0.2% increase in services and a 0.1% gain for food.
However, housing prices continued
to rise, up 0.4% on the month for the fourth straight time. Shelter-related
costs have proven stickier than Federal Reserve officials
have anticipated and have helped keep the central bank from reducing interest
rates as expected this year.
Stock market
futures were modestly positive following the report while
Treasury yields were negative on the session.
More
PCE report
May 2024: Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago
(cnbc.com)
UK economy
grew more than first thought at start of 2024, says ONS
June 28, 2024
The UK economy’s recovery
from recession was stronger than previously thought, according to updated data.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed in revised figures on Friday morning
that UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7% between January and March.
In May, the statistics body
estimated that the economy had grown by 0.6% over the quarter.
This growth saw the UK
economy rebound from a recession in the latter half of 2023, after the ONS previously confirmed two consecutive quarters of
decline.
The economy shrank by 0.1% in
the third quarter, and 0.3% in the fourth quarter.
The
improvement in growth shown in the revised data was driven by the services
sector, with slightly stronger activity in the professional services, transport
and storage sectors.
It found the services industry expanded by 0.8% for the quarter, up from
previous estimates of 0.6%.
Meanwhile, the production sector grew by 0.6% and construction declined
by 0.6% for the period.
The quarterly growth was the strongest the UK has witnessed since the
end of 2021.
It presents potentially
positive news for the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak ahead
of next week’s General Election, after previously pledging to grow the economy.
Mark Preskett, senior
portfolio manager at Morningstar Wealth, said: “The upward revision to the UK’s
Q1 GDP is encouraging and further evidence that the UK
economy is recovering.
“The services upgrade – to 0.8% from 0.7% – backs what we have been
seeing in inflation data.”
Nevertheless, the ONS revealed earlier this month that the economy then
stagnated in April, with no growth for the month as consumer spending was
affected by wet weather.
More
UK economy grew
more than first thought at start of 2024, says ONS (msn.com)
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
33% Agree COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Is Killing Large Numbers
of People’
Friday, June 21, 2024
Nearly a
quarter of those who got vaccinated against COVID-19 regret it, and a third
agree with a medical expert’s condemnation of the vaccine as deadly.
The
latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 24% of
American Adults who got at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine regret getting
vaccinated against the virus. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of vaccine recipients
have no regrets about it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In January 2023, cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough said: "The vaccine is killing people, and is killing large
numbers of people." Thirty-three percent (33%) of American Adults
agree with that statement, including 16% who Strongly Agree. Fifty-seven
percent (57%) disagree, including 39% who Strongly Disagree. Another 11% are
not sure.
The
survey of 1,232 American Adults was conducted June 10-12, 2024 by Rasmussen
Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95%
level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted
by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Seventeen
percent (17%) have a lot of trust for the medical and pharmaceutical
industries, 37% say they have some trust, 25% don’t have much trust and 18%
have no trust at all in the medical and pharmaceutical industries.
Twenty-five percent (25%) of American Adults say
they never took the COVID-19 vaccine, while 14% got only one dose, 20% got more
than one vaccine and 38% got the vaccine plus one or more booster shots.
The survey found a correlation between how many
vaccine doses people reported getting and how much trust they have in the
medical and pharmaceutical industries. Among those who got the COVID-19 vaccine
plus boosters, 80% have at least some trust in the medical and pharmaceutical
industries – a finding that is just 41% among those who got just one vaccine
dose, and only 30% among those who took no vaccine at all.
Similarly, among those who got only one COVID-19
vaccine, 43% regret getting the vaccine, while just 10% of those who got the
vaccine plus boosters have regrets.
Sixty-four percent (64%) of those who never got
vaccinated against COVID-19 and 38% of those who got only one dose of the
vaccine at least somewhat agree with Dr. McCullough’s statement, "The
vaccine is killing people, and is killing large numbers of people."
However, that opinion is shared by just 10% of those who got the vaccine plus
boosters.
More
33% Agree COVID-19 Vaccine ‘Is Killing Large Numbers
of People’ - Rasmussen Reports®
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
The Vatican
goes green: Pope announces new solar plant to power Vatican City
June
27, 2024
Pope Francis has renewables on his mind as he says he wants Vatican City
to run on solar power.
To achieve his aim, solar panels will be installed on a Vatican-owned
property outside Rome. The power generated could supply all of Vatican City's
energy needs.
In an apostolic letter issued "motu proprio," on his own
initiative, the Pope said: “It is necessary to transition to a sustainable
development model that reduces greenhouse
gas emissions into
the atmosphere, aiming for climate neutrality,”
The letter, titled
"Brother Sun," was dated 21 June, the summer solstice and the longest
day of the year. The Vatican published the letter yesterday (26 June).
What
are Pope Francis's guidelines?
The
construction will take place on Vatican property approximately 11 miles from
Rome, in the area of Santa Maria di Galeria. The property is currently
used for broadcasting Vatican Radio.
The system will combine renewable electricity production with the needs of the underlying
agricultural land.
For the construction, the
Pope has given two special commissioners full authority to run the project.
More
The Vatican goes green: Pope announces new solar plant
to power Vatican City (msn.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. The close of our Vivaldi season. Approx. 11 minutes.
VIVALDI
| Concerto RV 268 in E major | Original manuscript
VIVALDI | Concerto RV 268 in E major | Original manuscript - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 12 minutes.
Searching
for the Next Bobby Fischer || Alireza vs Nodirbek || Superbet Romania Chess
Classic (2024)
This
weekend’s final diversion. EV charging reality.
Approx. 10 minutes.
Ten
(very) PAINFUL facts about EV charging | MGUY Australia
Ten (very) PAINFUL facts about EV charging | MGUY
Australia - YouTube
The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it.
George Bernard Shaw. Socialist.
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