Baltic
Dry Index. 1997 +13 Brent Crude 85.17
Spot Gold 2324 US 2 Year Yield 4.70 unch.
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
In the stock casinos an edgy last trading week of the month and quarter.
Inflation figures from Australia and Jappn.
US personal income and expenditure figures for May. Recession or no recession?
France votes on Sunday, the UK votes on July 4th.
Biden v Trump round one.
Asia-Pacific markets slip as investors await
Australia and Japan inflation data later this week
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fell on Monday as investors awaited inflation data from
Australia and Japan later this week.
Australia’s
May consumer price index reading, due on Wednesday, will be in focus after
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock revealed the central bank discussed hiking rates at
its last meeting.
Should
inflation come in higher than expected and spur the RBA to raise rates, it
would be the first major Asia-Pacific central bank to do so in an environment
where investors are waiting for rate cuts, barring Japan.
The
RBA has two inflation readings to consider — June 26 and July 31— before its
next meeting on Aug. 6.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.65%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
up 0.24%, while the Topix was 0.26% higher, the only major benchmarks in Asia
in positive territory.
On
Monday, the Bank of Japan revealed it discussed raising interest rate during
its June monetary policy meeting. It said, however, “any change in the policy
interest rate should be considered only after economic indicators confirm that,
for example, the CPI inflation rate has clearly started to rebound and medium
to long-term inflation expectations have risen.”
Last
week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reportedly told the country’s parliament that the
central bank could raise rates as soon as its July meeting.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng index was
down 1.1%, and mainland China’s CSI 300 lost 0.5%. China reported
a 2.8% fall in fiscal revenue for the first five months of 2024
compared to 2023, widening from a 2.7% year-on-year fall from
January to April.
For
May alone, fiscal revenue was down 3.2% year on year, a softer fall than the
3.7% slide in April.
South
Korea’s Kospi dipped 0.82%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.08% lower.
On Friday in
the U.S., the S&P
500 ticked
lower as shares of market bellwether Nvidia pulled back
for a second day.
Nvidia shares
declined 3.2%. On Thursday, the stock hit an all-time high before closing more
than 3% lower.
Overall,
the S&P fell 0.16%, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped
0.18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged
up 0.04%.
“Technology
stocks continue to be in the spotlight,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment
strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “I can’t remember a time when
one single stock ... has been so influential on the market, and that’s really
been a key driver of the market action as of late.”
Asia
stock markets: Australia CPI, Tokyo CPI (cnbc.com)
Wall
Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead
Jun. 23, 2024 6:52 AM ET
Inflation
will take the spotlight next week, with market participants looking ahead to
Friday's U.S. personal income and outlays data for May. That report will
contain a reading on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price
index, which is widely seen as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.1% M/M and 2.6% Y/Y, marking a
deceleration on both counts from April. U.S. economic growth will also be in
focus on Thursday, as the second estimate of Q1 gross domestic product growth
is scheduled for release.
Turning to the earnings calendar, there are some
major names on tap. The world's largest cruise line operator Carnival (CCL) and global economic bellwether FedEx (FDX) will report quarterly
results on Tuesday, followed by Betty Crocker and Cheerios parent General Mills
(GIS) and memory chipmaker
Micron Technology (MU) on Wednesday, and
pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and the world's largest shoemaker Nike (NKE) on Thursday.
Wall Street Breakfast: The Week Ahead | Seeking Alpha
In other news.
Thailand ‘bravely’ lines up to join BRICS amid
West’s confrontational narrative
By Zhang Han Published:
Jun 22, 2024 12:13 AM
Thailand
has submitted a formal letter requesting to join BRICS and hopes to receive
positive feedback, said Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikorndej Balankura,
in a bid to become the group's first member from Southeast Asia.
Observers said on Friday that BRICS' continuous
expansion demonstrates the Global South's joint call for cooperation and
pursuit for a fairer global order, and Thailand's potential membership could be
a prelude to more ASEAN members joining BRICS.
Thailand is eyeing membership as early as
October, when the group hosts leaders' summit in Russia. Joining BRICS would
allow Thailand to gain further leverage in advancing South-South cooperation as
well as play a more proactive role and contribute to crafting the global
architecture, Nikorndej told a news conference, Xinhua News Agency reported.
Thailand attaches importance to prioritizing
multilateralism and strengthening the role of developing countries in the
international arena, which aligns with BRICS principles, and participating in
the group would also enhance the kingdom's opportunities on the international
stage, a government statement said.
BRICS is the acronym for an emerging-market
cooperative mechanism that initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa. In January, the bloc expanded its membership to include Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia.
So far, countries including Venezuela,
Kazakhstan and Belarus have also filed applications for participation.
More
Thailand ‘bravely’ lines up to join BRICS amid West’s confrontational narrative - Global Times
Finally, a scammer warning/alert in the Wall
Street Journal
AI Is Helping Scammers Outsmart You—and Your Bank
June 22, 2024 5:30 am ET
Artificial intelligence is making scammers tougher to spot.
Gone are the poorly worded messages that easily tipped off authorities as well as the grammar police. The bad guys are now better writers and more convincing conversationalists, who can hold a conversation without revealing they are a bot, say the bank and tech investigators who spend their days tracking the latest schemes.
ChatGPT
and other AI tools can even enable scammers to create an imitation of your
voice and identity. In recent years, criminals have used AI-based software to
impersonate senior
executives and demand
wire transfers.
“Your
spidey senses are no longer going to prevent you from being victimized,”
said Matt O’Neill, a former Secret Service agent and co-founder of
cybersecurity firm 5OH Consulting.
In
these recent cases, the frauds are often similar to old scams. But AI has
enabled scammers to target much larger groups and use more personal information
to convince you the scam is real.
Fraud-prevention
officials say these tactics are often harder to spot because they bypass
traditional indicators of scams, such as malicious links and poor wording and
grammar. Criminals today are faking driver’s licenses and other identification
in an attempt to open new bank accounts and adding computer-generated faces and
graphics to pass identity-verification processes. All of these methods are hard
to stave off, say the officials.
JPMorgan
Chase has begun using large-language models to fight identity fraud.
Carisma Ramsey Fields, vice president of external communications at JPMorgan
Chase, said the bank has also stepped up its efforts to educate customers about
scams.
And while banks stop some fraud, the last line of
defense will always be you. These security officials say to never share
financial or personal information unless you’re certain about who’s on the
receiving end. If you do pay, use a credit card because it offers the most
protection.
“Somebody who tells you to pay by crypto, cash, gold,
wire transfer or a payment app is likely a scam,” said Lois Greisman, an
associate director of the Federal Trade Commission.
Tailored targeting
With AI as an accomplice, fraudsters are reaping more
money from victims of all ages. People reported losing a record $10 billion to
scams in 2023, up from $9 billion a year prior, according to the FTC. Since the
FTC estimates only 5% of fraud victims report their losses, the actual number
could be closer to $200 billion.
More
AI Is Helping Scammers Outsmart You—and Your Bank -
WSJ
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession
June
22, 2024
Consumers are finally
starting to rein in their spending habits, which could weigh on the economy after a long period of robust spending has propped up economic growth over the past few years. Retail spending ticked
0.1% higher in May, but sales volume has dropped 1.3% year-over-year over the
last three months, US Census data shows.
That adds
to a 4% decline in retail sales in the first quarter — and it's a strong sign
the long-awaited consumer recession is on the horizon, economist David
Rosenberg said recently.
"The weakness in the
consumer can now be considered a 'trend' ... "The 'build in' for Q2 real
retail sales is now negative, coming on the heels of a -4.4% annualized decline
in Q1," he said in a note to clients this week. "Early signs of
a consumer recession finally
coming to the fore."
Shoppers aren't opening their
wallets as easily as they deal with the cumulative effects of inflation and a cooler job market.
A higher cost of living and
sluggish hiring activity were cited as key reasons consumer sentiment has soured, according to a recent McKinsey survey.
Among those surveyed by the consulting firm, 55% said they felt
"pessimistic" or had "mixed" feelings about the economy in
the second quarter.
"In general, consumer
attitudes remain depressed relative to pre-pandemic — likely a function of
lingering angst over inflation and interest rates," Deutsche Bank
strategists said in a recent note. "Though the labor market appears strong
on the surface, consumers' confidence around the labor outlook has begun to
slip and suggests a potential pick up in the unemployment rate."
Consumer finances, especially
among lower- to middle-income households, are also looking worse than they did
last year. The delinquency
rate on credit card loans ha risen
to its highest level in 13 years, according to Federal Reserve data.
76% of consumers, meanwhile,
said they made a "trade-down" in the first quarter, such as by
searching for cheaper prices or switching to a cheaper brand, the McKinsey
survey found.
"The consumer is spent up and lent up,"
Stephanie Pomboy, a veteran forecaster who was among the commentators who
called the 2008 financial crisis, said in a recent interview with the
"Thoughtful Money" podcast. "They're spending every dollar they
have, and then some, just to keep up with the basic necessities."
According to the McKinsey
survey, 37% of consumers said they intended to reduce their spending on takeout
meals, and 35% said they intended to spend less at sit-down restaurants. More
than 30% of respondents said they planned on spending less money on international
and domestic flights, while 32% said they would spend less on alcohol.
Those spending cuts could
deal a blow to GDP, which has already softened after a remarkably strong few
quarters in 2023. The economy grew 1.6% in
the first quarter of this year, compared to 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and
fourth quarters of last year.
More
Americans' spending patterns are flashing a warning of a possible consumer-led recession (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Unusual
symptom of new Covid-19 variant after UK hospital cases jump 30 per cent
June 22, 2024
Scientists have raised the
alarm over a new Covid
variant driving up hospital
admissions throughout the UK. The variant KP.3 emerged in early April, 2024 and
belongs to a new group of COVID-19 variants, known as FLiRT, reports the Mirror.
The name of the latest
variant was inspired by the mutations in the genetic code They are a spin-off
from JN.1 - a variant that could transmit efficiently through an extra one or
two mutations. As of April, three strings of the FLiRT variant have been responsible
for 40 per cent of all Covid cases in the UK, these variants are KP.1.1, KP.3
and KP.2, according to the UK Health Security Agency data.
KP.2 is thought to have driven a wave
of infections in May before passing the baton to P.3, which has almost doubled
UK infections to 44 per cent in under two weeks. KP.2’s share has declined to
22 per cent. Hospital admissions rose by 24 per cent in the week to Sunday,
from 2.67 people per 100,000 to 3.31 per 100,000, according to fresh data
issued by the UKHSA.
The highest hospital admission rate
for confirmed Covid-19 continues to rise among people aged over 85 years,
increasing to 34.70 per 100,000 following a short interval of decreases.
However increases also occurred in
those aged between 65 and 74 years, and in people aged between 75 and 84 years,
and most of the younger age groups.
The diminishing immunity of the general
population has been considered a reason for the spread of the variant, and a
top scientist told i, a wave of Covid this summer could be
on the horizon. Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick University,
said: “This is a wake-up call. The virus hasn’t gone away and is certainly not
a seasonal infection.”
More
Unusual symptom of new Covid-19 variant after UK
hospital cases jump 30 per cent (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Solar
panel achieves world record with ‘miracle material’
June 21, 2024
A new
efficiency world record for converting sunlight into electricity has been set, in
what researchers claim is a huge boost for renewable energy.
Researchers
at Longi, the world’s biggest solar panel manufacturer, achieved a 34.6 per cent
power conversion efficiency using a tandem perovskite-silicon solar cell,
beating the previous record by 0.7 per cent.
The
new record is also more than 7 per cent more efficient than the record for a
standard silicon solar cell, which is found in most commercial solar panels.
Perovskite
has been hailed as a ‘miracle material’ for its potential to vastly improve
everything from batteries to telecommunications and renewable energy.
With current silicon solar panels reaching their physical limits,
researchers are now looking to next-generation tandem cells to better harness
the Sun’s energy.
Perovskite-silicon
cells have a theoretical efficiency limit of 43 per cent – far exceeding the 29
per cent limit of standard silicon cells.
The
latest record follows a series of breakthroughs from China-based Longi, having
broken the world record for solar cell efficiency 16 times over the past three
years.
The
record was announced at the 17th International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart
Energy Conference (SNEC) in Shanghai, China, alongside a new “landmark” agreement to transform global energy
by partnering with Saudi energy firm ACWA Power.
The company
said in a statement that it achieved the new record by “optimising the thin
film deposition process of the electron transport layer, developing and using
high-efficiency defect passivation materials, and designing high-quality
interfacial passivation structures.”
No further
details were given, though Longi is one of several companies currently in the
process of commercialising the technology.
In the UK,
Oxford PV is hoping to fulfil the first customer orders of its perovskite-based
solar cells this year, having established a production facility in Germany.
Solar panel achieves world record with ‘miracle
material’ (msn.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
To retain respect for sausages and laws, one must not watch them in the making.
Count Otto von Bismarck.
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