Baltic
Dry Index. 2031 +67 Brent Crude 86.85
Spot Gold 2321 US 2 Year Yield 4.70 -0.01
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
A
government politician visited a remote little rural village and asked the
inhabitants what the government could do for them.
“We
have two big needs,” said the village leader. “First, we have a hospital but no
doctor.”
The politician whipped out his cell phone, spoke for a while and then said: “I
have sorted it out. A doctor will arrive here tomorrow. What is your other
need?”
“We have no cell phone reception in our village.”
Not that I watched it, but most US media,
left or right have concluded it was a bad debate night for President Biden
Joe Biden. But does that translate into a good night for former President Don
Trump?
What will the US stock casinos make of it as they await the latest US inflation numbers in the PCE and core PCE.
What will they make of it in Beijing and Moscow,
among many other capitals?
‘Looks and
Sounds Ancient’: Biden’s Appearance Roasted Minutes Into CNN Debate with Trump
Jun
27th, 2024, 9:33 pm
Social media was quick to roast the appearance of both
President Joe Biden and Donald Trump at CNN’s Thursday debate, though far more appeared to focus on the
current president.
Both candidates were introduced
by moderators Dana Bash and Jake Tapper without a live studio audience
leaving their walk ins mostly silent. Only minutes in, many were commenting on
the appearance of both candidates, particularly Biden. Both camps have taken to
poking at the other’s age. Trump is 78. Biden is 81.
“It’s hard to imagine this debate
starting worse for Biden,” journalist Chris Cillizza wrote on X just minutes into the debate.
Former CNN host Brian Stelter noted the difference between Trump and Biden was
“striking” and he was only listening to audio on the radio.
----Young Turks co-founder Cenk Uygur, who ran his own independent presidential campaign, declared
the debate was “over” just minutes in, saying Biden looks “ancient.”
More
'Ancient'
Biden Roasted Minutes Into Debate with Trump (mediaite.com)
Top Democratic fundraisers sound the alarm
after Biden’s debate performance
Many of the Democratic Party’s top fundraisers are
privately sounding the alarm after President Joe Biden’s
disappointing debate performance
Thursday against Republican former President Donald Trump.
“Disaster,” said a Biden donor who
plans to attend a fundraiser with the president on Saturday in the Hamptons.
“This is terrible. Worse than I
thought was possible. Everyone I’m speaking with thinks Biden should drop out,”
said the person, who was granted anonymity in order to recount private
conversations.
CNBC began hearing from worried Democratic campaign donors and
fundraisers less than 20 minutes into the 90-minute debate hosted by CNN.
“Game over,” said a longtime
Democratic campaign advisor, who has been raising money for congressional
leaders for over a decade and helped raise money for Biden’s 2020 White House
bid.
“Biden’s got to leave. He’s got to
get out now and if he doesn’t get out we’re going to get f------ crushed,” said
the advisor. They told CNBC they planned to approach Democratic National
Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison on Friday to discuss what happened at the
debate.
An advisor of one of the Democratic
Party’s top megadonors called the debate an “absolute train wreck” for Biden.
“Worse than [Ronald] Reagan in ’84 or [George W.] Bush in ‘04 or [Barack] Obama
in ’12,” they added.
The problems for Biden at the
debate started early. He stumbled out of the gate, appearing to lose his train
of thought at times and pausing for a long moment before CNN moderators cut him
off when he was discussing U.S. health care.
“Making sure that we’re able to
make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with
the, with the Covid, excuse me, with dealing with everything we have to do
with, look ...” Biden said, trailing off.
“Look, if, we’ve finally beat
Medicare,” Biden said, before CNN anchor and moderator Jack Tapper gently moved
on. “Thank you, President Biden,” said Tapper.
Several times later in the debate,
the president repeated himself, or left several seconds of silence mid-answer.
Throughout the evening, Biden’s voice was raspy and quiet.
Biden’s campaign co-chair Mitch
Landrieu told NBC News this was because the president had a cold. “I think
because of the way people analyze debates, it’s going to be at first about the
physical performance,” said Landrieu.
----For example, answering a question about border
security — a top voter issue this election cycle — Biden’s sentence was
grammatically difficult to follow.
“I’m going to
continue to move until we get the total ban on the total initiative relative to
what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden
said.
Trump pounced on the
stumbles. “I don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think
he knows what he said, either,” the former president quipped.
More
Biden, Democratic fundraisers sound alarm on debate (cnbc.com)
In the stock casinos, an uneasy wait for the US PCE.
Asia-Pacific markets rise as investors assess
Japan economic data; yen hits fresh 38-year low
Asia-Pacific markets climbed on Friday as
investors assessed key economic data out of Japan and awaited U.S. inflation
readings due later in the day.
The Japanese yen hit fresh 38-year
lows against the greenback, weakening to as low as 161.27 against the dollar.
Japan replaced Masato Kanda with Atsushi Mimura as its top currency diplomat, according to Nikkei.
Headline
inflation for Japan’s capital city of Tokyo accelerated to 2.3% in
June from a year earlier, up from 2.2% in May. The core inflation rate —which
strips out prices of fresh food — rose to 2.1% from 1.9% in May.
Tokyo inflation data is widely
considered to be a leading indicator for nationwide trends.
The country’s industrial production grew 2.8% month on month in
May, beating expectations of 2% from economists polled by Reuters. On a
year-on-year basis, industrial production rose 0.3%.
Both the readings will provide
Japan more room to tighten its monetary policy at a time when its currency has
plummeted to multi-decade lows.
South Korea saw its retail sales for May slip 0.2% year on year,
a softer fall compared to April’s revised figure of a 0.8% drop. This is the
first time since July 2023 that South Korea has recorded two straight months of
declines.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded
1.04% after the data release, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.84%.
South Korea’s Kospi inched
up 0.13%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was up 0.1%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
marginally, while mainland China’s CSI 300 rebounded off a four-month low to
gain 0.11%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose
0.63%.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 eked
out a narrow gain as Wall Street looked ahead to fresh inflation data to assess
when the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates.
The U.S. is expected to release its
preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditure index on
Friday.
The broad market index closed
marginally higher at 0.09%. The Nasdaq Composite added
0.30%, while the Dow
Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.09%.
Asia markets live:
U.S. inflation, Tokyo CPI, yen, Japan industrial sales (cnbc.com)
In PCE news.
There’s a big Fed inflation reading coming
Friday. Here’s what to expect
There could be some pretty good inflation news on
the way from the Commerce Department when it releases a key economic report
Friday.
The personal consumption
expenditures price index, an inflation measure the Federal Reserve watches
closely, is expected to show little, if any, monthly increase for May, the
first time that would be the case since November 2023.
But even more importantly, when stripping out volatile food and energy
prices, the core PCE price index, which draws even closer scrutiny from Fed
policymakers, is set to indicate its lowest annual reading since March 2021.
If that date rings a bell, it’s
when core PCE first passed the Fed’s coveted 2% inflation target during this
cycle. Despite a series of aggressive
interest rate increases since then, the central bank has yet to
wrest the pace of price increases back into its target range.
The official Dow Jones forecasts
for Friday’s numbers are for the headline, or all-item, PCE price reading to
come in flat on the month, while core is projected to rise 0.1%. That would
compare to respective increases
of 0.3% and 0.2% in April. Both headline and core are forecast at
2.6% on a year-over-year basis.
Should the core PCE price forecasts
transpire, it will serve as a milestone of sorts.
“We are in line with [the forecast]
that the PCE core pricing data will come in soft,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief
economist at U.S. Bank. “That’s good news for the Fed. It’s also good for
people’s pocketbooks, although I don’t know if people feel it just yet.”
Indeed, while the rate of inflation has receded precipitously from its
mid-2022 peak, prices have not. Since that March 2021 benchmark, core PCE is up
14%.
That steep climb and its pernicious
effect is why Fed officials are not ready to declare victory yet, despite the
obvious progress made since the rate
hikes began in March 2022.
“Returning inflation sustainably to
our 2% target is an ongoing process and not a fait accompli,” Fed Governor Lisa
Cook said earlier this week.
More
Big
Fed inflation reading coming Friday. Here's what to expect (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Sick man of
Europe Germany teeters on the edge after inflation creeps up
June
27, 2024
Germany's
economy was dealt a huge blow following a recent shock jump in inflation. The rate had
decreased from 2.50 percent in February to 2.20 percent in March, and remained
stable throughout April.
This boosted Germans' hopes for a swift economic recovery
of their country by the end of the year. However, data focused on May showed the inflation rate crept up
again, at 2.40 percent.
A survey published by pollsters GfK
Group and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) suggested the
country's outlook on economic prospects was dampened by the latest inflation
figures.
The rising inflation is prompting
German households to spend less and save more, the survey analysing some 2,000
respondents also suggested.
NIM consumer expert Rolf Buerkl said
on the organisation's website: "The slightly higher inflation rate in
Germany in May is clearly causing more uncertainty among consumers again, which
is also reflected in the increase in the willingness to save."
The German government's struggle to
get this year's budget through after a top court ruled its first draft in
November as incompatible with the debt brake enshrined in the country's law has
contributed to consumers' reluctance to spend more, Mr Buerkl said.
His statement read: "For a
sustained recovery in consumer sentiment, consumers need - in addition to the
existing real income growth - planning security, which is particularly
necessary for larger household purchases.
More
Sick
man of Europe Germany teeters on the edge after inflation creeps up (msn.com)
Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,'
according to one commodity trader
June 26,
2024
"Food wars" are
looming over global stability, as trade barriers and the climate crisis strain
supply, the head of trading firm Olam Agri warned.
In comments first reported
by The Financial Times, CEO
Sunny Verghese signaled that rising restrictions on trade are already
amplifying food inflation, leading to an exaggerated demand-supply imbalance.
"We
have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars over food and
water," he said during last week's Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild
consumer conference.
Though agricultural commodity
traders took the blame for rising food costs after Russia's 2022 invasion of
Ukraine, the CEO pushed back. Instead, the outbreak of non-tariff trade
barriers was likely the chief culprit, with 1,266 curbs proliferating that year.
While the exchange of
commodities grew tighter, demand swelled among wealthier economies, which
focused on creating surplus stocks.
Higher
prices not only amplified a cost-of-living crisis in certain regions but
growing food scarcity since COVID-19 has created insecurities in poorer
regions, the outlet said.
At the same time, a hotter
climate has exacerbated challenges in agricultural production, spurring aggressive rallies across a number of commodities, including cocoa, coffee, and sugar.
According to Verghese this,
too, is causing global governments to turn towards protectionism, in an effort
to shield domestic markets. Examples include an Indonesian ban on palm oil
exports and an Indian curb on rice exports.
"That was precisely the
wrong thing," he said. "You're going to see more and more of
that."
In the face of climate risks,
the trader pressed for the industry to get serious on taking action. For
governments, carbon taxation is an appropriate policy, he argued.
Why the world is barreling towards a 'food war,'
according to one commodity trader (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Yesterday we covered the surge of covid new cases in the USA. Today it’s the Republic of Ireland cases surging and for pretty much the same reasons. Warmer, drier weather gets people to circulate more, helping to spread the infection. Plus vaccines didn’t prevent infection nor prevent covid spreading.
There
was a 60% jump in Covid-19 cases in Ireland last week
June 27, 2024
THERE WERE OVER 1,000 confirmed cases
of Covid-19 confirmed in Ireland last week, a 60% increase on the week before.
The Health Surveillance Protection
Centre (HSPC) said that indicators continue to show moderate to high levels of
Covid-19 transmission.
A total of 1,042 cases of Covid-19
were notified to the Computerised Infectious Disease Reporting system
(CIDR) between 9-15 June, up from 650 cases the previous week.
The number of people hospitalised as
a result also increase by 56% in the same period, with 486 hospitalisations
reported, compared to 321 the week before.
The number of patients in hospital
with the virus on the morning of Tuesday 25 June rose to 459 from 395 the week
before.
Admissions of people to ICU stayed
stable, however, with just 25 patients in intensive care units with the
disease. There was also a rise in outbreak notifications in healthcare settings
over the same period.
The main Covid variant in Ireland is
the JN.1. Prevalence of the KP.3 variant is also increasing as cases rise. The
HSPC said that KP.3 appears to have a growth advantage over other variants but
there is no evidence that it is associated with a more disease than other
variants.
In a statement, the HSPC said that as
in previous waves “widespread circulation of COVID-19 often leads to an
increase in people experiencing severe disease”.
“Increased circulation in the
community also leads to increased numbers of outbreaks in nursing homes,
hospitals and other healthcare settings, putting vulnerable patients at risk of
infection and leading to COVID-19-related healthcare staff shortages.
This current wave is a reminder that
COVID-19 continues to circulate throughout the year and remains a considerable
burden on the population and our health services when circulation is high.
There was a 60% jump in Covid-19 cases in Ireland last
week (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
World's
most efficient engine becomes a colossal clean energy generator
Joe Salas June 25, 2024
One
of the world's largest engines becomes a clean generator. Originally designed
to burn diesel, dual-fuel, or gasoline for tankers and container ships, the
Wärtsilä 31 marine engine gets a new life generating clean, renewable
electricity.
The Wärtsilä 31 engine is in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the
most efficient 4-stroke marine engine ever made in its class. It also boasts
the highest power per cylinder in engines of equivalent bore size. It can be
configured in 8 to 16 cylinders and with a power output ranging from 4.6 MW to
10.4 MW at 720 and 750 rpm.
This Finnish company is best known for making
the world's largest combustion engines – notably the 89
ft (27 m) tall, 44 ft (13 m) long, 110,000 horsepower RTA96-C. The Wärtsilä 31 engine is a fair bit smaller, maxing
out at 15.4 ft (4.7 m) high and 28.8 ft (8.7 m) long, and running on fossil
fuel, it can crank out up to 13,142 horsepower (9,800 kW).
The cylinder bore
and stroke (12.2 x 16.9 inches, or 31 x 43 cm) sound enormous if you're coming
from the auto/moto world, but compared to some of the company's bigger engines,
which have cylinders big enough to walk into, they're relatively compact.
Converted to a
generator, the hydrogen-ready 31SG-H2 version can run on natural gas, or a
blend of natural gas and 25% hydrogen – or it can be upgraded to run on 100%
hydrogen. There's also a flexible-fuel 31H2 designed to run natively on full
hydrogen, but also accepting natural gas or blended fuels.
Both promise to be
the world's largest hydrogen-powered generators when rolled out – assuming
there's enough hydrogen available to run them.
The hydrogen power
station is designed for firming up a renewables-based grid, quickly ramping up
or down to support intermittent clean energy sources such as solar and wind,
with no minimum up or downtime and the ability to ramp up and synchronize with the
power grid in as little as 30 seconds with the push of a button. By using
hydrogen, Wärtsilä can generate electricity 100% carbon-free.
Anders Lindberg, President of Wärtsilä Energy
stated, "We must be realistic that natural gas will play a part in our
power systems for years to come. Our fuel-flexible engines can use natural gas
today to provide flexibility and balancing, enabling renewable power to thrive.
They can then be converted to run on hydrogen when it becomes readily
available, future-proofing the journey to net zero."
More + video.
World's most efficient engine becomes a colossal clean
energy generator (newatlas.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and a scary one at that. A scary week ahead too, with both France and
the UK undergoing parliamentary elections.
Will French and UK banks come under selling pressure? Sterling, the euro? Will US hedge funds
continue dumping high tech stocks? We will shortly find out. Have a great
weekend everyone.
Some high
ranking politicians visit a school. The top one goes over the expenses and
decides to make adjustments to cut costs.
"The
lunch portions are too big. Cut them in half. Internet connection too fast. Too
many computers."
After that, they go to a preschool. Again, the
expenses are too great.
"The lunch portions are too big. Reduce them to
half. Too many toys around."
After the preschool, they go to a prison.
"The lunch portions are too small and the selection is
too limited. Get faster broadband and more comfortable beds. TVs are too old.
Get a few consoles as well."
Baffled, one of them asks the leader:
Are you mad? We just cut costs in schools and preschools, and
now you do this?
My friend! We will never go to school or preschool again. But we can still easily end up here.
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