Baltic
Dry Index. 1831 -52 Brent Crude 82.29
Spot Gold 2314 US 2 Year Yield 4.81 -0.06
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
It is decision day for the US central bank. To cut their key interest rate following the example of the European Central bank last week, or not to.
But before the US central bank politburo get to make that decision, markets and the Fedsters in the vote casting politburo get the latest US consumer price inflation numbers for May.
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed as China’s May inflation rises for the 4th straight month
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday as
investors assessed inflation data from around Asia.
China’s May inflation rate came in
at 0.3%, missing expectations of 0.4% by economists polled by Reuters. The
figure was unchanged from April.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index opened
0.76% lower after the CPI announcement, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 was
down marginally.
Traders in Asia will also look
toward the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday stateside, which will
come hours after the country’s May inflation report.
Separately, India’s inflation rate
is also forecast to climb marginally to 4.89%, according to a Reuters poll of
economists, slightly higher than April’s 4.83% increase.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped
0.79%, while the broad based Topix saw a larger loss of 0.85%.
Japan’s corporate
goods inflation rate accelerated to 2.4% in May, beating expectations and
marking its fastest rate of increase since August.
However, South Korea’s Kospi was
up 0.45%, and the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.56% higher.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.69%, extending losses from Tuesday.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose
to fresh closing highs, led by Apple as
the iPhone maker surged to a record high.
The broad market
index gained 0.27%, closing at 5,375.32, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.88%
to end at 17,343.55. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
0.31%,
On Tuesday,
investors appeared to be taking profits in artificial intelligence star Nvidia and rotating
into emerging AI play Apple,
which just unveiled
new features that could spark a wave of iPhone upgrades,
analysts said.
The iPhone maker hit a
new record high during the session — its first since last
December — jumping nearly 7.3%. Nvidia lost 0.7%.
Asia stock
markets today: China inflation, India CPI, Fed decision (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for positive open ahead of Fed decision, U.S. inflation data
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open
higher Wednesday ahead of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve decision and
inflation reading.
The U.K.’s FTSE index
is seen 29 points higher at 8,169, Germany’s DAX 36
points higher at 18,408, France’s CAC 40 up
13 points at 7,803 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up
66 points at 33,946, according to IG.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday stateside will come hours
after the country’s May inflation report.
The central bank is expected to
maintain its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25% and
5.5%, the market will
be watching for updates to the Fed’s economic projections,
which could clarify the path for policy. Investors have grown increasingly
concerned that the recent strong jobs report and sticky inflation support a
higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
The latest consumer price index
print, a broad measure of goods and services costs, is forecast to
show just a 0.1% increase from April and a 3.4% rise on a year-over-year basis.
U.S.
stock futures hovered near the flatline Tuesday night, while
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors assessed inflation
data from around Asia.
European markets watch Fed decision, U.S. inflation data (cnbc.com)
In other news.
Fed meeting and
inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the most
important days of the year for economic news, as investors will hear about the
path of inflation and the
manner in which the Federal
Reserve plans to react.
In a one-two punch
that starts in the morning with the pivotal consumer price index reading for
May and ends with the Fed’s policy meeting in the afternoon, vital signals will
be sent about the direction of the economy and whether policymakers can soon take
their foot off the brake.
The day “packs months of macro risk into one
day,” wrote UBS economist Jonathan Pingle.
Like many others on
Wall Street, Pingle expects the CPI
report, combined with last Friday’s surprisingly strong nonfarm
payrolls reading and other recent data releases to lead Fed
officials to tinker with their outlook for inflation, economic growth and
interest rates.
Optimists are
hoping that the moves fall largely within the realm of expected outcomes and
don’t do much to rattle the frayed nerves of market participants.
“While both
typically have proven to be market-moving events, we expect very little
fireworks from both releases given our expectations for rather benign
outcomes,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis
Investment Managers.
In broad strokes,
here are anticipated outcomes of both events.
CPI inflation
The measure of how
much a broad basket of goods and services cost consumers in May is expected to
show little month-over-month movement — just a 0.1% increase from April, though
that still would equate to an aggregate annual rise of 3.4%.
Excluding food and
energy prices, the so-called core PCI is projected to show a 0.3% monthly gain
and a 3.5% annual rate.
None of those
numbers are dramatically different from the April readings, and still show
inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target. Still, some economists say
that a look under the hood at various important metrics such as insurance costs
and core services excluding housing will show that inflation at least is
trending in the right direction, albeit incrementally.
“On the inflation
front, expect more of the same – continued evidence that the broader
disinflationary trend is still intact and that the stickier first quarter data
was simply a pause in a downtrend,” Janasiewicz said.
One important point
about the CPI: while it gets a lot of focus from both the investing and general
public, it is not the main metric the Fed uses. Central bankers prefer the
Commerce Department’s measure of personal consumption expenditures prices, a broader
measure that also accounts for changes in consumer behavior.
The Bureau of Labor
Statistics is scheduled to release the CPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
The Fed meeting
While the BLS is
disseminating the CPI report, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee
members will be finalizing their projections for inflation, gross domestic
product and unemployment as well as indicating the expected rate path through
2026 and beyond.
First and foremost,
when it comes to interest rates, the Fed will do ... nothing. Both market
pricing and rhetoric from policymakers point to virtually no chance of a move
either way on interest rates, with the central bank keeping its benchmark
overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50%.
Instead, officials
will take other action that markets will be watching closely.
FOMC members will
release quarterly updates to their Summary of Economic Projections, which could
be influenced by the CPI report. While meeting participants usually submit
their estimates early Wednesday, the 19 meeting participants generally are
allowed a little extra time to account for incoming data.
The informal
consensus in market commentary is that the Fed will adjust the path of its
pivotal “dot plot” upward. The impact of that would mean the grid likely will
point to fewer than the three interest rate cuts indicated for 2024 in March,
toward a path that most economists expect to show two reductions, though there
is some worry the outlook could shrink to just one.
Should the Fed
signal one cut, that likely means the Fed wouldn’t act until November or
December, UBS’ Pingle said.
More
Fed
meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
(cnbc.com)
More US Regional Bank Failures May Be Coming
June 11, 2024 at 11:42 PM GMT+1
More US regional bank failures could be on the way thanks to what Pacific Investment Management warns is a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books. “The real wave of distress is just starting” for lenders to everything from malls to offices, says Pimco’s John Murray.
Recent turmoil has been particularly felt by regional lenders, which boosted commercial real estate exposure that (in many cases) is now worth only a fraction of their value at its peak. Smaller banks have continued to worry investors ever since last year’s mini-collapse. Earlier this year, New York Community Bancorp slashed its dividend and stockpiled more cash for potentially bad loans, sending shares into a tailspin that ended in a capital injection. US Bancorp increased its provisions for credit losses in the first quarter.
Shares of
Axos Financial slumped last week after a short seller took aim at what it called the bank’s
“glaring” property loan problems. Uncertainty over when the US Federal Reserve
may cut interest rates has exacerbated challenges faced by commercial real
estate, where high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered
defaults, leaving lenders stuck with tough-to-sell assets. The landscape looks
to be getting grimmer.
More
Bloomberg Evening Briefing: More US Regional Bank Failures May Be Coming - Bloomberg
When I am abroad, I always make it a rule never to criticize or attack the government of my own country. I make up for lost time when I come home.
Winston Churchill.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Wages
rising 2.9% above inflation but unemployment nudges up
June 11, 2024
There
were more signs the cost-of-living squeeze on Brits is easing today with wages
rising faster than inflation.
Official
figures showed regular pay rising 2.9 per cent in real terms in the three
months to April - the fastest since the summer of 2021.
The
numbers were also in line with expectations, raising hopes the Bank of England will
press ahead with interest rate cuts this month or in August.
However,
there was gloomier news in the jobs market as unemployment increased, while
inactivity rates also nudged up.
Despite
a huge government push to get people back into work, the number classified as
long-term sick has reached 2.83million.
That is
marginally higher than the previous record.
Some 1.51million were unemployed in
the period, an increase of 138,000 on the previous quarter and 157,000 higher
than the same time last year.
The rate was 4.4 per cent in the
three months to April, up from 4.3 per cent in the three months to March and
the highest level since July to September 2021.
That defied expectations for the
jobless rate to remain unchanged.
Vacancies also dropped sharply once
again, down 12,000 to 904,000 in the three months to May, marking the 23rd fall
in a row.
But the figures showed regular
earnings growth remained unchanged at 6% in the three months to April and
continued to outstrip price rises – up 2.9% when taking Consumer Prices Index
(CPI) inflation into account, which is the highest since the three months to
August 2021.
The ONS said: “This month’s figures
continue to show signs that the labour market may be cooling, with the number
of vacancies still falling and unemployment rising, though earnings growth
remains relatively strong.”
Wages rising 2.9% above inflation but unemployment
nudges up (msn.com)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Hmm, what could possibly go wrong? A flu-covid mutation new infection perhaps?
A Combined Flu and
COVID-19 Shot May Be Coming
Mon, 10 June 2024 at 6:35 pm BST
As much as we’d like to think that
COVID-19 is behind us, the virus isn’t going anywhere. Health officials
continue to recommend that people get vaccinated for both COVID-19 and
influenza every year for the foreseeable future, and high hospitalization rates
for COVID-19 in the past winter were a reminder that SARS-CoV-2 can still cause
serious disease.
Soon, that may be possible with one
shot instead of two. On June 10, Moderna reported that its combination
COVID-19/influenza shot generated even better immune responses against
SARS-CoV-2 and influenza than those elicited by existing, separate vaccines.
Both of the shots used in the study
are experimental. The COVID-19 portion relies on a slightly different form of
SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein than the existing vaccine. Instead of encoding for
the entire spike protein, the combination vaccine includes two key parts of it
in a way that streamlines the shot to require a lower dose—which is useful for
a combination vaccine, and also potentially extends its shelf life. The
influenza component of the vaccine uses the same mRNA technology behind the
existing COVID-19 vaccine but targets influenza proteins in the three strains
that circulated during the past season: H1N1 and H3N2 from the influenza A
group, and an influenza B strain.
In a study of more than 8,000
adults ages 50 and older, about half received the combination vaccine. The
other half—the control group—received two separate shots: Moderna's latest COVID-19 vaccine, which targets the XBB.1.5 variant,
and a flu shot (either Fluarix, if people were 50 to 64 years old, or Fluzone
HD for those 65 and older).
In the younger group, the combo
vaccine generated about 20% to 40% higher levels of antibodies to the influenza
strains, and 30% higher levels to XBB.1.5, compared to the control group. Among
older people, antibodies were 6% to 15% higher against the flu strains and 64%
higher against XBB.1.5 compared to older people in the control group.
More
A Combined Flu and COVID-19 Shot May Be Coming (yahoo.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists
make breakthrough in EV battery technology with self-extinguishing capabilities
— here's how it could revolutionize auto industry
June 8, 2024
Sometimes the solution to a
problem is so obvious that it goes unnoticed.
When it comes to mitigating
battery fire risks, incorporating extinguisher chemicals into the works might
be an example of that, until now. Researchers from Clemson University may
have eliminated the rare, but potentially cataclysmic potential
for runaway battery fires.
"We
wanted to develop an electrolyte that was nonflammable, would readily transfer
heat away from the battery pack, could function over a wide temperature range,
was very durable, and would be compatible with any battery chemistry,"
Clemson's Apparao Rao and Hunan University's Bingan Lu, wrote in a press
release. The research
team included experts from Clemson
and Chinese universities.
In common lithium-ion
batteries, ions move between two
electrodes through a substance called an electrolyte. Liquid versions are
flammable when worst-case short-circuits happen, causing temperatures to
quickly rise hundreds of degrees. The findings from Clemson could eliminate
that possibility, which is one of the few concerns preventing some
potential electric vehicle buyers from
switching to a cleaner ride.
The solution is essentially a
self-extinguishing battery that utilizes common blaze-dousing chemicals.
"It
replaces the most commonly used electrolyte, which is highly combustible — a
medium composed of a lithium salt and an organic solvent — with materials found
in a commercial fire extinguisher," the experts wrote.
mportantly, the power pack
passed a battery of exams, including successful operation at extreme
temperatures. It also survived the crucial nail penetration test, which is
exactly as it sounds.
"Driving a stainless
steel nail through a charged battery simulates an internal short circuit; if
the battery catches fire, it fails the test. When we drove a nail through our
charged batteries, they withstood the impact without catching fire," according to Rao
and Lu.
A video clip in the Clemson article shows the smoke and flames
that are produced when a battery fails the test.
Some lab work was required to
make the fire-prevention chemicals compatible in batteries. Low toxicity and
zero planet-warming risk were important considerations. The battery can also
function for more than a year without losing much capacity, per the experts.
More
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Democracy means government by the uneducated, while aristocracy means government by the badly educated.
Gilbert K. Chesterton.
No comments:
Post a Comment