Baltic
Dry Index. 1964 +36 Brent Crude 85.07
Spot Gold 2300 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 +0.06
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
Why waste your money looking up your family tree? Just go into politics and your opponent will do it for you.
Mark Twain.
We are two trading days away from month-end and quarter-end, normally a time to dress up stocks and stock indexes for the all important money manager bonuses.
But with Biden v Trump taking place tonight and the Fed’s favourite inflation figures due out tomorrow, this month-end and end of quarter carries more risk than usual.
Equally disturbing, US hedge funds are
reportedly dumping tech stocks to retail investors!
Somebody has to be
on the other side.
George Goodman, aka Adam Smith. The Money Game. Why
Are The Little People Always Wrong?
European markets head for negative open as
inflation worries persist
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open in
negative territory Thursday as global inflation worries continue to rattle
markets.
The U.K.’s FTSE index
is expected to open 19 points lower at 8,207, Germany’s DAX 40
points lower at 18,122, France’s CAC 40 down
13 points at 7,593 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 92
points lower at 33,643, according to data from IG.
Global market attention is shifting
toward fresh U.S. inflation data on Friday, with May’s personal consumption
expenditures price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge,
due to be released. Investors hope the report will show easing pricing
pressures that could cement the likelihood the Fed will lower interest rates
later this year.
Asia-Pacific
markets traded lower overnight as the Japanese yen weakened to
a near 38-year low late Wednesday, hitting 160.82 against the U.S. dollar,
according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, U.S.
S&P 500 futures fell slightly Wednesday night after the
S&P 500 rose for a second day.
Data releases in Europe Thursday
include Italy’s latest consumer and business confidence numbers, and Spanish
retail sales. An EU leader’ summit begins in Brussels on Thursday and the Bank
of England publishes its latest Financial Stability Report.
European
markets: stocks, news, data and Riksbank decision (cnbc.com)
S&P 500 futures fall slightly after the
broader index rises for a second day: Live updates
UPDATED THU, JUN 27 2024 7:01 PM EDT
U.S.
S&P 500 futures fell slightly Wednesday night after the S&P 500 rose
for a second day.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures dipped 0.19% and 0.32%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average
futures fell 73 points, or 0.18%.
Micron shares slipped
5% in extended trading after the chipmaker issued fourth-quarter
revenue guidance in line with estimates, even as the company
beat third-quarter expectations. Levi Strauss dropped
12% after the jeans maker’s latest
quarterly revenue disappointed investors.
Bank stocks were in focus after
the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the biggest U.S. firms are able
to withstand a severe recession scenario. Goldman Sachs shares
slid 1.7%, while JPMorgan Chase shares
rose slightly.
During the regular session
Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite added
0.5%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 15.64 points, or 0.04%.
Stocks are in a holding pattern
as Wall Street awaits the latest inflation data on Friday with the release of
May’s personal consumption expenditures price index. Investors hope the report
will show easing pricing pressures that could cement the likelihood the Fed
will lower interest rates later this year.
Even with the sluggish trading
activity, megacap tech names continued to outperform on Wednesday, bouncing
back from a recent slide. On Wednesday, Amazon shares reached an all-time high, breaching
$2 trillion in market capitalization for the first time.
Still, investors are deliberating
whether the artificial intelligence trade can continue to sustain markets in
the back half of this year, or if the rally will need to broaden out.
Strategists surveyed by CNBC Pro anticipate the S&P 500 will likely end the
year not even 1% higher from current levels.
“Right now, we’re in this environment where the
market is sort of aligned with the Fed,” Brian Levitt, global market strategist
at Invesco, told CNBC’s “Closing
Bell” on Wednesday. “And what you’ll need likely is greater
expectation coming into this market that the inflation story is really behind
us, that the Fed can lower rates, and the soft landing happens.”
Corporate earnings continue
Thursday with releases from Walgreens Boots
Alliance and Nike.
On the economic front, traders
will also watch for the latest
reading of weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders and
pending home sales.
Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
In other news, as we await the Biden v Trump
brawl in Atlanta later today, CNN reports that even wealthy Americans are
struggling to get by under President Biden Joe Biden. Reagan’s “Are you
better off than you were four years ago,” comes to mind.
In Europe, France is just three days out from
voting in round one of the parliamentary elections.
Even wealthy Americans are
struggling to make ends meet
Published 2:43 PM EDT, Wed
June 26, 2024
About
one in three Americans making six-figure salaries are worried about paying
their bills, according to a new survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia.
The survey finds
a notable increase over the past year of consumers making $100,000 a year or
more who are concerned about making ends meet over the next 12 months.
A
significant share of wealthier Americans are coping with financial pressure by
cutting spending, including dialing back restaurant visits and entertainment.
The
findings underscore how years of high
inflation and elevated borrowing costs continue to squeeze consumers’
budgets — even for
those at the higher end of the income spectrum.
Nearly
a third (30.8%) of consumers making between $100,000 and $149,999 a year are
concerned about making ends meet in the next six months, according to the
Philly Fed survey, which was fielded from March 22 to April 6.
That’s up
from 21.3% of Americans in that income bracket concerned about making ends meet
a year earlier.
Similarly,
32.5% of those earning $150,000 or more indicated they are concerned about
paying the bills, up from 21.7% a year earlier.
Those
more affluent Americans are more concerned than the 23% of those making $70,000
to $99,999, according to the survey.
Among
all consumers, about one in three (34.9%) said they are concerned about making
ends meet, up from 28.7% a year earlier.
Younger
Americans are more likely to be feeling the financial pressure than older.
Forty-one
percent of those between 18 and 35 years old said they are concerned about
making ends meet, compared with just 22% of those over 65.
There
was also a notable increase in higher-earning consumers nervous about paying
bills in the longer run.
More
Even
wealthy Americans are struggling to make ends meet | CNN Business
In French Alps,
Macron's party struggles to hold conservative heartland
By Cecile Mantovani and Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber June 26,
2024 6:17 PM GMT+1
---- Macron's centrist
party is now struggling to preserve its seats in the two-round parliamentary
election on June 30 and July 7 in Haute-Savoie, which borders Switzerland and
relies on tourism, agriculture and industries such as metallurgy.
"I'm going to cast a protest vote against
Macron," said Guigue, who said he had voted for conservative parties for
most of his life.
"We pay lots of taxes but don't get anything
in return ... And I'm worried for the children growing up because we will leave
them with huge debts."
More
In French Alps, Macron's party struggles to hold conservative heartland | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
So
where is it? Well, I think the US economy fell into recession in April or May. See
the LIR weekend edition, Inflation/Recession section.
UK retail sales go into reverse this month, CBI
survey shows
June 26,
2024
(Reuters) -British retail sales
softened this month after a recovery in May, and stores expect another drop
next month, an industry survey showed on Wednesday.
The Confederation of British
Industry's monthly retail sales balance, which measures volumes compared with a
year ago, fell to -24 in June from +8 in May.
"Unseasonably cold weather in
June may have played a role, but its notable that internet retail sales fell
sharply in our survey, too," Alpesh Paleja, interim deputy chief economist
at the CBI, said.
Official data last week showed retail
sales surged in May, after heavy rain kept shoppers away in April.
Average wages are now rising faster
than inflation and consumer sentiment in June had recovered to its highest
since November 2021, according to figures on Friday from Britain's
longest-running consumer confidence survey.
Still, the CBI survey pointed to
another difficult month for retailers in July. Its gauge of expected sales in
July showed a reading of -9, indicating a modest annual drop in sales volumes,
versus expectations of -4 for June in last month's survey.
The CBI survey of 58 retail chains
was conducted between May 24 and June 13, before a period of unusually warm
weather towards the end of the month.
UK retail sales go into reverse this month, CBI survey
shows (msn.com)
Bonds suggest
there’s a recession coming – so where is it?
The
US yield curve has been inverted for the longest period in history; with
long-term debt yielding less than short-term notes
June 24, 2024
Yield curves – which visualise how much
it costs to borrow money over different timeframes – usually slope
upwards. Because of the risks they incur, investors are usually compensated
with higher returns when they lock away money over the longer term. This means
that there is usually a positive gap between the yields on (say) 10-year and
two-year government bonds.
But when the curve inverts, this ‘spread’
turns negative: suddenly, the yield investors earn on short-term bonds exceeds
the yield on long-term fixed-income assets. Because the slope of the yield
curve fluctuates to reflect changing expectations about the economy, an inversion is
(historically) a pretty reliable recession indicator.
Research shows that inversions have preceded
every US recession since 1955, and
on this side of the pond, there is evidence that yield curves
have anticipated economic contractions since the 1800s. The New York Fed even uses the
slope of the yield curve to calculate the probability of a recession in the US
in 12 months' time. Ominously, this probability currently sits at over 50 per
cent, as the chart below shows. Prior to the 2020s, the last time the odds were
this high were in the 1980s – when a deep contraction duly followed.
But although yield curves have a lot to say
about whether a recession will materialise, they don’t give us much of a steer
on when. Research finds that a US
yield curve inversion can precede a recession by anything from six months to
two years. And today, the wait is becoming increasingly lengthy, and perhaps
increasingly disconcerting.
As the second chart indicates, the US yield
curve has now been inverted since July 2022 – the longest inversion in
history. This, clearly, is a long time to wait for the yield curve to be
proved ‘right’.
More
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Summer COVID Cases Are Rising Across America
June 25, 2024
TUESDAY, June 25, 2024
(HealthDay News) -- As scorching summer temperatures drive Americans indoors
and millions travel for vacations and family gatherings, COVID infections are
again climbing, U.S. health officials warned Monday.
In evidence that suggests a
COVID summer wave is underway, case counts are most likely increasing in
39 states and aren't declining anywhere in the country, new data from the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows.
While the
CDC no longer tracks COVID cases, it still estimates spread of the virus using
data on emergency department visits. Both COVID deaths and ED visits have risen
in the last week, while hospitalizations climbed 25% from May 26 to June 1,
according to the latest CDC data.
"It looks like the
summer wave is starting to begin," Dr. Thomas Russo, chief of infectious diseases at the
University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences,
told NBC News.
Several new COVID variants
are likely contributing to the summer spike in cases, Dr. Dan Barouch, director of the Center for Virology and
Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, told NBC
News.
"We're
seeing the start of an uptick of infections that is coincident with new
variants that are developing: KP.2 and KP.3 and LB.1. It does appear that those
variants do have an advantage over the prior ones," he added.
All three variants are
descendants of JN.1, the version of the coronavirus that dominated this winter.
KP.2 became the dominant
variant last month, and then KP.3 took over in early June, NBC News reported.
Along with a third variant that shares the same key mutations, KP.1.1, the
group now accounts for around 63% of all COVID infections in the United
States, CDC data shows.
Meanwhile, LB.1 accounts for
another 17.5% of COVID infections. Experts said its rapid growth indicates that
it's likely to become dominant soon.
Still, "it's sort of the
newest kid on the block," Barouch said. "There's not much known about
it."
A preprint study released
this month, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed, suggests LB.1 is more
infectious and could be better at evading protection from vaccines or previous
infections.
"Assuming that
preliminary data is true, that it's more immune-evasive and that it's more
infectious than KP.2 and KP.3, that's a winning formula to infect more
people," Russo noted.
More
Summer COVID Cases Are Rising Across America (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Scientists
find graphene flakes in lunar soil sample
By Liu Mingtai in Changchun and Liang Shuang | China Daily |
Updated: 2024-06-26 08:47
Chinese scientists have discovered
the presence of a special form of carbon in lunar soil retrieved by China's
Chang'e 5 probe, offering new evidence about the geological evolution of the
moon and providing clues for the future utilization of the substance.
The research, published in the
journal National Science Review last week, revealed the existence of naturally
formed few-layer graphene, a substance consisting of carbon atoms in a special,
thin-layered structure.
The team, led by professors Zou Meng,
Zhang Wei and senior engineer Li Xiujuan from Jilin University, and Ren Wencai
from the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Metal Research, analyzed an
olive-shaped sample of lunar soil, about 2.9 millimeters by 1.6 mm, retrieved
from the Chang'e 5 mission in 2020.
According to the team, scientists
generally believe that some 1.9 percent of interstellar carbon exists in the
form of graphene, with its shape and structure determined by the process of its
formation.
Using a special spectrometer,
researchers found an iron compound that is closely related to the formation of
graphene in a carbon-rich section of the sample. They then used advanced
microscopic and mapping technologies to confirm that the carbon content in the
sample comprised "flakes "that have two to seven layers of graphene.
In tracing the graphene's formation,
the team proposed that it may have formed in volcanic activity in the early
stages of the moon's existence, and been catalyzed by solar winds that can stir
up lunar soil and iron-containing minerals that helped transform the carbon
atoms' structure. They added that impact processes from meteorites, which
create high-temperature and high-pressure environments, may also have led to
the graphene's formation.
On Earth, graphene is becoming a star
in materials sciences due to its special features in optics, electronics and
mechanics. "If silicon was the strategic new material of the 20th century,
graphene is that for the 21st century," Liu Zhongfan, an academician at
the CAS, told The Economic Observer in April.
The team believes its study could
help develop ways to produce the material inexpensively and expand its use.
"The mineral-catalyzed formation
of natural graphene sheds light on the development of low-cost scalable
synthesis techniques of high-quality graphene," the paper said.
"Therefore, a new lunar exploration program may be promoted, and some forthcoming
breakthroughs can be expected."
By early this month, some 77.7 grams
of the 1,731 grams of lunar samples retrieved by Chang'e 5 had been distributed
to 114 research teams from 40 facilities, yielding some 70 studies published in
major journals, according to the CAS' Institute of Geology and Geophysics.
Scientists find graphene flakes in lunar soil sample -
Chinadaily.com.cn
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and hard it is to undo that work again!
Mark Twain.
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