Baltic
Dry Index. 1961 +13 Brent Crude 85.38
Spot Gold 2328 US 2 Year Yield 4.69 -0.06
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods.
H. L. Mencken.
In the stock casinos, it’s Nvidia to infinity and beyond. Yet another classic stock mania in AI technology in full manic mania. A new Mississippi and South Sea bubble underway.
What could possibly go wrong? It’s a one way street to stock casino heaven after all!!!
Look away from that rising oil price now.
Nvidia Becomes World’s Most Valuable Company as AI Rally
Steams Ahead
June 18, 2024 at 9:58 PM GMT+1
Nvidia’s relentless rally has propelled the semiconductor giant’s market capitalization over its mega-cap tech peers, allowing it to clinch the title of the world’s most-valuable company as the artificial intelligence wave continues.
The stock rose 3.5% to close at $135.58 a share Tuesday, putting the company’s market value at about $3.3 trillion and catapulting it over those of Microsoft and Apple. The top stocks have jockeyed all month for the pole position, with Nvidia finally edging past both of its big-tech peers.
The ranking
is yet another reminder that AI is the top focus of many investors. Nvidia is
seen as the biggest and earliest beneficiary of the technology as it dominates
the market with its highly sought-after chips.
More
Bloomberg
Evening Briefing: Nvidia Is World’s Most Valuable Company - Bloomberg
AI fever drives
Nvidia’s rise to world’s most valuable company
By Lewis Krauskopf June 19, 2024 6:00 AM GMT+1
Nvidia shares rose 3.5% on Tuesday, giving it a market value of about $3.34 trillion. That pushed the semiconductor bellwether past Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Apple (AAPL.O), which had been jostling for the top spots in recent days.
Nvidia shares rose 3.5% on Tuesday, giving it a market value of about $3.34 trillion. That pushed the semiconductor bellwether past Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Apple (AAPL.O), which had been jostling for the top spots in recent days.
Microsoft, one of the two other companies to reach
those rarefied levels, took 945 days to go from $2 trillion to $3 trillion
while Apple took 1,044 days to make the leap, according to Bespoke Investment
Group.
Previously, just 11 U.S. companies since 1925 have
reached the top spot in market value on a closing basis, according to Howard
Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Fortunes have diverged for past holders of the top
position in recent decades. Microsoft reached No. 1 in the late 1990s but then
its shares struggled for years during the early 2000s following the dotcom
bubble, only to come roaring back in the latter half of the last decade.
Exxon Mobil (XOM.N)became the world’s most
valuable company in the 2000s but its shares retreated following a downturn in
oil prices.
To some, Cisco (CSCO.O) is the cautionary tale. The
company’s shares peaked at over $80 in March 2000 in the midst of the dotcom
boom, during which investors often assigned dizzying valuations to
internet-related companies.
Bespoke’s analysts recently contrasted the
trajectories of Nvidia and Cisco, whose products were seen as essential in
supporting the internet's infrastructure.
More
AI
fever drives Nvidia’s rise to world’s most valuable company | Reuters
Asia markets
mostly rise as Taiwan and India stocks hit new record highs
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose after key U.S.
benchmark indexes hit fresh highs overnight as artificial intelligence chip
firm Nvidia overtook Microsoft to
become the world’s most
valuable public company.
Shares of the chipmaker jumped
3.5% overnight on Wall Street and have surged 174% since the beginning of the
year.
Investors in Asia assessed Japan’s
trade data for May, with exports beating expectations. Exports grew 13.5% year
on year compared with a 13% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters.
Imports growth of 9.5%, however, missed expectations of a 10.4% increase.
Investors also digested the Reuters
Tankan index reading which showed business confidence among large Japanese
manufacturers fell to +6 from +9 in May. On the flip side, business confidence
among non-manufacturers climbed to +31 from +26 in May.
The Tankan measures business
confidence among Japanese corporations, and a positive figure means optimists
outnumber pessimists and vice versa.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed
0.28%, while the broad-based Topix rose 0.46%.
Shares of Japanese investment
holding company SoftBank climbed
by more than 3%. The company has a stake in U.S.-listed chip designer Arm,
whose architecture is used in chips including those made by Nvidia.
South Korea’s Kospi gained
almost 1%, powered by a 1.5% gain in heavyweight Samsung Electronics.
Other South Korean tech stocks also
rose, with LG Electronics jumping 4.13%, while SK Hynix climbed more than 3%.
The small-cap Kosdaq reversed earlier gains to fall 0.28%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed
1.97%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.42%
The China Securities Regulatory
Commission said it would publish new measures to deepen the reform of
Shanghai’s tech-heavy STAR market, according to a Reuters report.
CSRC chairman Wu Qing said the
commission will strengthen regulation of high-frequency trading and
over-the-counter derivatives.
The Taiwan Weighted
Index reached
new highs, gaining 1.81% to cross the 23,000 mark as heavyweights Hon Hai
Precision Industry (Foxconn) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp,
gained 4% and 2%, respectively.
India’s Nifty 50 rose
0.14% to scale a new peak, marking a sixth straight day of gains.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped
0.18%.
Overnight in the U.S., the
broad market S&P 500 advanced 0.25% to close at a record 5,487.03, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.03%, also closing at a fresh high
of 17,862.23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.15%.
Asia stock
markets: S&P 500 record, Japan trade, Tankan (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for lackluster open; UK inflation data on deck
LONDON — European stocks are
expected to open in mixed on Wednesday, losing the positive momentum seen in
the previous trading session.
The U.K.’s FTSE index
is seen 5 points higher at 8,188, Germany’s DAX up
19 points at 18,143, France’s CAC 40 4
points higher at 7,621 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 7
points higher at 33,314, according to IG data.
U.K. inflation
data for May is in focus ahead of the Bank of England’s policy rate decision on
Thursday. The Bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.25%, with the
majority of economists polled by Reuters forecasting
a cut in August.
Data from the euro zone on
Tuesday showed inflation in the single-currency euro area rose at an annual
rate of 2.6% in May, up from 2.4% in April, the EU’s statistical office Eurostat confirmed in a final reading.
Annual inflation within the wider EU was 2.7%, up from 2.6% the previous month.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly rose overnight after key U.S. benchmark indexes
hit fresh highs on Tuesday as artificial intelligence chip firm Nvidia overtook Microsoft to become
the world’s most
valuable public company.
U.S. financial
markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
European
markets: stocks, news and UK inflation data (cnbc.com)
Mississippi Bubble
Mississippi Bubble, a financial scheme in 18th-century France that triggered a speculative frenzy and
ended in financial collapse. The scheme was engineered by John Law, a Scottish adventurer, economic theorist, and
financial wizard who was a friend of the regent, the Duke d’Orléans. In 1716
Law established the Banque Générale, a bank with the authority to issue
notes. A year later he established the Compagnie d’Occident (“Company of the
West”) and obtained for it exclusive privileges to develop the vast French
territories in the Mississippi River valley of North America.
More
John Law | Money
Creation, Banking System & Financial Innovator (britannica.com)
In other news, commodities news, nothing
good. More food price inflation ahead.
Disease, drought
and alternative fruits: The orange juice industry is in crisis
The orange juice industry is reeling.
Prices of the breakfast staple recently
climbed to fresh all-time highs, rattled by a perfect storm of climate-fueled extreme
weather, persistent supply constraints and a citrus disease known as
greening.
The price rally accelerated sharply
late last month, after research center Fundecitrus warned that Brazil, the world’s largest
producer and exporter of orange juice, was likely on track to register one of
its worst orange harvests in more than three decades.
The crisis has even prompted some
orange juice manufacturers and blenders to explore whether alternative fruits,
such as mandarins, apples and pears, can be used to dilute the drink.
“With no short-term solution in
sight and the risk of worsening disease conditions, the situation remains
critical,” Kees Cools, president of the International Fruit and Vegetable Juice
Association (IFU), told CNBC by email.
Frozen concentrated orange juice futures,
traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, closed at $4.29 per pound
on Monday — nearly double the price registered a year ago.
The benchmark
contract has pared gains in recent weeks, falling from an intraday high of
nearly $5 per pound on May 28.
What’s going on?
Analysts at
research group Mintec say that Brazil, which plays a hugely
influential role in shaping the orange juice industry,
typically produces about 300 million boxes of oranges (each weighing
approximately 40.8 kilograms) per cycle. But the combination of extreme
weather, such as flooding and drought, and greening has dramatically reduced
crop production.
In a report
published on May 10, Fundecitrus forecast that Brazil was set to produce 232.4
million boxes of oranges in the 2024 to 2025 season. That represents a 24%
decline when compared to the previous cycle.
“Restoring normal
stock levels in Brazil will require several consecutive good harvests. With 40%
of Brazilian plantations affected by greening disease and the risk of this
number increasing, coupled with volatile climate conditions, the likelihood of
achieving such harvests is low,” the IFU’s Cools said.
“As a result, high
prices are expected to persist. Although there is a slight decrease in demand,
it is insufficient to rebalance the market,” he added.
An untreatable
disease that results in bitter, stunted fruit — known as greening — has joined
adverse weather conditions as a long-term headwind for farmers in
orange-growing areas across the world.
Greening has severely
hampered orange production in the “Sunshine State” of Florida, where the
IFU says production has collapsed to approximately 17 million boxes, down from
242 million boxes 20 years ago.
More
Disease, drought and fruit-switching: Orange juice industry in crisis (cnbc.com)
Finally, in EV news, another EV crash. Seal
stuck on beach.
EV startup Fisker files for bankruptcy
June 18, 2024
U.S. electric
vehicle (EV) maker Fisker filed for bankruptcy protection late on Monday as
deal talks with a big automaker collapsed, exposing the startup to the fallout
of a rapid cash burn to deliver its Ocean SUV in the United States and Europe.
The company's
unit, Fisker Group Inc, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Delaware, listing
estimated assets of $500 million to $1 billion and liabilities between $100
million and $500 million. Fisker's estimated number of creditors are 200-999,
according to the court filing.
The
termination of talks in March with a large automaker led Fisker to search for
strategic options, including in- or out-of-court restructurings and capital
markets transactions.
While Fisker
has not named the company, Reuters had reported that Japanese automaker Nissan
was in advanced talks to invest in the startup.
The U.S.
company, founded by automotive designer Henrik Fisker, flagged doubts about its
ability to remain in business in February and had paused investments in future
projects until it secured an auto partnership.
Fisker also
said it would cut its workforce by about 15% amid struggles to sell its Ocean
EVs. It manufactured over 10,000 vehicles in 2023 - less than a quarter of its
initial forecast - and delivered only about 4,700.
Last month,
the U.S. auto safety regulator opened a preliminary probe into some Ocean EVs
made by Fisker in 2023, adding to the firm's woes as the cars were already
under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
(NHTSA) for three prior incidents.
Tight access
to capital in a high interest rate economy, costs associated with marketing and
distributing its vehicles and slower-than-expected EV demand dragged the
company's cash reserves lower.
Depleting cash
reserves, fundraising hurdles and challenges in ramping up production caused by
global supply chain issues led to companies such as Proterra, Lordstown and
Electric Last Mile Solutions declaring bankruptcy.
EV startup Fisker files for bankruptcy (msn.com)
City
Beach rescue of luxury electric car BYD Seal after owner gets it bogged
A simple photo opportunity turned into disaster for the
owner of luxury BYD Seal.
Driving the exclusive electric car onto City Beach for
what was supposed to be a quick photo opportunity, the front end got bogged in
the sand.
Not surprising for a car that has just 120mm of ground
clearance and no low-range gearing.
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history
counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent
that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those
who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the
present.
John Kenneth Galbraith.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
With
the US wheat harvest well underway, it’s time to take a look at important
global crops.
Ukraine's wheat exports to hit 10-year low this year – US Department of Agriculture
June 14, 2024
The US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) expects Ukraine's wheat exports to reach 13 million tonnes
for the year, the lowest figure in the last 10 years.
Source: a report by the USDA
Details: The report forecasts Ukraine's wheat production at 19.5
million tonnes in the 2024-2025 marketing year, down 3.5 million tonnes from
last year's harvest. Exports will amount to 13 million tonnes, the lowest level
in the last 10 years.
This report encompasses all
grain-exporting countries, with analysts predicting the largest decline for
Russia, dropping by 5 million tonnes to 88 million tonnes.
At the same time, Ukraine's barley
production for the year is estimated at 5 million tonnes (-0.2 million tonnes
compared to the May forecast), while exports are 2.2 million tonnes (-0.1
million tonnes).
Meanwhile, the maize harvest is
expected to reach 27.7 million tonnes (+0.7 million tonnes), while exports will
increase to 24.5 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes), experts say.
USDA expects the global wheat harvest
in the new marketing year to decrease by 8 million tonnes, from 798.19 million
tonnes to 790.75 million tonnes, and trade to decrease from 215.36 million
tonnes to 212.98 million tonnes.
The global maize harvest is expected
to increase to 1,220.5 million tonnes from 1,219.9 million tonnes and exports
to 193.9 million tonnes from 192.66 million tonnes.
Background:
・During an online meeting with representatives of the
agrarian policy ministries of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Lithuania,
Ukraine's deputy ministers of agrarian policy and fooddiscussed the application of a system that can determine the
origin of grain supplied by Russia to world markets.
・Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers (the Ukrainian government)
has simplified sunflower seed exports to Bulgaria by implementing an automatic
licensing regime, replacing the non-automatic system.
Ukraine's wheat exports to hit 10-year low this year – US Department of Agriculture (msn.com)
U.S. Wheat Exports Forecast at 4-Year High
June
14, 2024
U.S. wheat exports for 2024/25 are forecast up 25 million bushels to 800 million bushels based on larger domestic supplies and reduced competition from other key exporters (figure 1). Russia’s production is forecast down 5 million metric tons (MMT) this month. The European part of Russia, where winter wheat is primarily grown, was beset by freezing temperatures in May and drought and heat through much of the growing season.
Production is also expected lower for the European Union (excessive moisture in France) and Ukraine (intensifying dryness). Amidst the lower expectations for crops in these key exporters, U.S. wheat prices have started to pull closer to other major wheat exporters.
The spread between U.S. Hard Red Winter at the Gulf, freight on board (FOB), and French wheat (FOB Rouen) has narrowed considerably while other key classes remain highly competitive with other major exporters. Even in spite of this month’s export increase, the long-term decline in the U.S. share of the global market is still evident as total exports are 20 percent below 2020/21. Notably, the United States is still forecast as the world’s fifth leading wheat suppliers.
---- Domestic Changes at a Glance:
• U.S. wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast at 1,875 million bushels (table 1), up 17 million bushels from the May forecast and up 3 percent year to year. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provided an updated survey-based production forecast for the 2024/25 U.S. winter wheat crop in the June 12 Crop Production report. Winter wheat production overall is projected up 17 million bushels from the May 10 Crop Production report to 1,295 million bushels with larger Hard Red Winter (HRW) output more than offsetting reductions to Soft Red Winter (SRW) and White Winter production. Winter wheat harvested area is unchanged at 25.2 million acres, up 2 percent from last year.
o HRW production is forecast at 726 million bushels, up 21 million bushels from the May estimate. Total winter wheat yields are revised higher in Kansas and Montana, both major HRW producing States. Area harvested is up year to year on lower abandoned acres and yields with conditions that improved substantially over last year’s drought-affected crop.
o
SRW production is forecast down 2 million bushels from the previous month to
342 million bushels
More
Wheat Outlook: June 2024 (usda.gov)
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Fast, accurate, and cost-effective POC Covid-19 tests
are set to revolutionise the testing market
Tue, Jun 18, 2024, 6:32 AM GMT+1
Point-of-care (POC)
SARS-CoV-2 tests, which can deliver results in a matter of minutes, could mark
a shift away from traditional clinical diagnostic lab tests that take days to
POC tests that can be performed in the field.
These POC tests are
based on a variety of technologies and formats both old and new: conventional
antigen-based tests for detecting viral proteins; isothermal nucleic acid
amplification and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for the
detection of viral genetic material; and newer CRISPR-based diagnostic tests,
which detect viral genetic material but in fewer steps and dispense with
polymerase chain reaction (PCR) machines. POC tests are easy to use as they can
be deployed in high-risk environments, such as homes or educational
institutions, and require little or no specialist training. Furthermore, some
POC tests will be suitable for home use once given the go-ahead by regulators.
In this way, POC tests promise to be, at the very least, a useful adjunct to
lab-based PCR diagnostic testing.
SARS-CoV-2 antigen tests are cost-effective as they are based
on the same lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) format used in home pregnancy
tests, and could help track and contain the spread of the pandemic due to ease
of use in clinics and eventually homes. Although the sensitivity of
antigen-based POC tests is about two orders of magnitude lower than that of a
PCR test, the repeated rapid testing of the general public, also known as
surveillance testing, could do a better job at identifying contagious individuals
than reliable but cumbersome PCR tests. Large-scale rollouts of POC antigen
tests have yet to be deployed, but if successfully done, will set a precedent
for rapid development and deployment of antigen tests should another Covid-19
outbreak or pandemic occur. Low-income countries cannot afford population-wide
testing, but are interested in POC antigen testing as a core diagnostic
strategy due to its cost-effectiveness.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Well
maybe, but I’m not convinced hydrogen in any form, will be practical, safe or
cost effective anytime soon, if ever.
Hydrogen fuel-cell ebikes can be 'recharged' in
seconds
Paul Ridden June 15, 2024
While most ebikes on the road today
will come with a battery pack, some
are riding down the hydrogen
fuel-cell cycle path. HydroRide not only has fuel-cell ebikes available, but
also a compact refill station to top up H2 canisters.
The global ebike market is estimated to grow in value to almost US$120 billion by 2030, and
it's not surprising. Whether commuting or leisure riding, pedal-assist bikes
take some of the strain out of the journey while also opening up routes for
older riders. The vast majority of ebikes on the street roll with Li-ion
batteries, but they can spend a good deal of time parked up charging,
Swiss tech company HydroRide Europe
AG is hoping to tempt e-cyclists over to the hydrogen fuel cell camp with the
promise of super-fast top-ups for its range of city ebikes. And even has a
compact hydrogen generator in its product portfolio, which can produce 20 g of
hydrogen from 200 ml of purified water in around five-to-six hours. The company
says that its refill station can even be powered by solar panels instead of the
grid to produce green hydrogen, though efficiency and operational figures don't
appear to have been revealed.
Either way, that hydrogen is
transferred to a 25-cm-tall (9.8-in) bottle-like container at an internal
pressure of 1 MPa. Popping one of these containers into the frame of one of the
company's HYRYD ebikes feeds the onboard 180-W fuel cell and offers up to 60 km
(37 miles) of range. Then it's just a case of removing a spent container and
replacing it with a fresh one, which is said to take just 3-10 seconds.
More
Hydrogen fuel-cell ebikes can be 'recharged' in
seconds (newatlas.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
H. L. Mencken.
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