Thursday, 25 July 2024

A Harsh Reality Returns. Going Down. Bubble Over.

Baltic Dry Index. 1864 -05        Brent Crude  81.08

Spot Gold 2375              US 2 Year Yield 4.37 -0.03

The money has to go to the federal government because the federal government will spend that money better than the private sector will spend it.

Hillary Clinton.

In the sky high, hopium filled, divorced from economic reality, stock casinos, as in the government subsidised EV market, suddenly there are no more greater fool buyers. A harsh economic reality has caught up with the magnificent seven and US, European and China’s economies tumbling into recession.

US and European consumers are spent out, deeply in increasingly unserviceable debt and are cutting back in a desperate attempt to head off disaster.

Later today, US GDP data and tomorrow the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Look away from the normalising US yield curve now.

“How did you go bankrupt?"

Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises

Japan’s Nikkei drops 3% as Asia-Pacific markets slide, tracking Wall Street sell-off

PUBLISHED WED, JUL 24 2024 7:59 PM EDT

Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended its six-day losing streak to plunge 3%, leading losses among Asian indexes as the region saw a broad sell-off after Wall Street tumbled overnight.

Nikkei heavyweight SoftBank Group nosedived 7%, while Renesas Electronics led losses in the index, down more than 14%. The broader Topix fell 2.24%.

The yen also marked a fourth-straight day of strengthening against the U.S. dollar, hitting an 11-week low of 152.28 against the greenback.

Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is expected to discuss a rate hike at its monetary policy meeting next week on July 30 and 31, as well as detailing a plan to halve its bond buying.

Separately, a Japanese government panel agreed to increase the average minimum hourly wage in the country to 1,054 yen ($6.90), or 5%, NHK reported.

Higher wages offer the Bank of Japan more room to consider a rate increase, as it banks on a “virtuous cycle” of rising prices and wages.

Investors also assessed South Korea’s advance second-quarter GDP numbers, which came in slightly below expectations.

South Korea’s GDP grew 2.3% year on year, lower than the 2.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters. On a quarter on quarter basis, the country’s economy shrank 0.2%, compared to a 0.1% rise expected in the Reuters poll and a reversal from the 1.3% growth seen in the first quarter.

South Korea’s Kospi lost 1.8%, while the Kosdaq was down 2.32%. The index was dragged by heavyweight SK Hynix, which also fell 6%.

This comes as the company reported an all-time high quarterly revenue of 16.42 trillion won ($11.85 billion) for its second quarter, marking a gain of 125% from a year ago.

Operating profit came in at 5.47 trillion won, its highest in six years. Net profit stood at 4.12 billion won. Both metrics reversed from loss positions in the same period last year.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index slipped 1.65%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 was down 0.98%.

China’s central bank cut the medium term facility lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, its latest move to stimulate the economy after lowering its loan prime rates on Monday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was 0.94% lower.

Taiwan’s market will be closed for a second day, as the island braces for Typhoon Gaemi.

Over in the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw their worst days since 2022.

The broad market index lost 2.31%, closing at 5,427.13, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 3.64% to end at 17,342.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 504.22 points, or 1.25%, closing at 39,853.87.

Tech names sold off, including Nvidia and Meta Platforms, which lost 6.8% and 5.6% respectively. Shares of Alphabet — Google’s parent company — fell 5% for their biggest one-day drop since Jan. 31.

Meanwhile, Tesla shares declined 12.3% — their worst day since 2020 — on weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue.

Asia stock markets: South Korea GDP, Wall Street sell-off (cnbc.com)

S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble for worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet slide after quarterly results: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JUL 24 2024 4:32 PM EDT

Stocks sold off Wednesday, weighed down by underwhelming reports from two megacap tech companies, leading the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to post their worst session since 2022.

The broad market index lost 2.31%, closing at 5,427.13, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 3.64% to end at 17,342.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 504.22 points, or 1.25%, closing at 39,853.87.

Shares of Google parent company Alphabet fell 5% for their biggest one-day drop since Jan. 31, when they dropped 7.5%. Although Alphabet reported a top- and bottom-line beat, YouTube advertising revenue came in below the consensus estimate. Meanwhile, Tesla shares declined 12.3% — their worst day since 2020 — on weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue.

Other major tech stocks fell in sympathy with Alphabet and Tesla. Nvidia and Meta Platforms respectively lost 6.8% and 5.6%, while Microsoft slid 3.6%.

Those reports mark investors’ first look at how megacap companies fared during the second quarter. Reports from these names are of special interest to Wall Street as this small cohort is responsible for the bulk of this year’s gains.

Wednesday’s sell-off was caused by a perfect storm of an overbought market, high bar for earnings and a seasonally weak period for equities. That is why this pullback has not come as a total surprise to investors, according to Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird.

“We would view this sell-off as ultimately quite viable, because it’s against the backdrop of a bull market. And a healthy correction inside of a bull market is something that we view as a place of opportunity, rather than a place to get defensive or to try to shield your money from this volatility,” Mayfield added in an interview with CNBC.

The small-cap Russell 2000 was down 2.1% on the day. For the month, however, the small-cap benchmark is up 7.2% as investors recently began rotating out of large-cap tech names into beaten-down smaller ones. In July, the Dow has gained 1.9%, while the S&P 500 has slipped 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen 2.2%.

----- Adding to investor concerns Wednesday morning was weaker-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data.

The U.S. PMI flash manufacturing output index fell to 49.5 in July, unexpectedly slipping into contraction territory as new orders, production and inventories declined. Economists had forecast a reading of 51.5, according to Dow Jones.

A Wednesday report also showed new home sales came in lighter than economists had expected for the month of June.

Stock market news for July 24, 2024 (cnbc.com)

Nasdaq, S&P 500 end with worst one-day percentage declines since 2022

By Vivien Lou Chen  July 24, 2024

U.S. stocks finished sharply lower on Wednesday, led by a 3.6% drop in the Nasdaq Composite, after disappointing earnings from megacap technology companies triggered a flight to safety by investors.

 

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 504.22 points, or 1.3%, at 39,853.87, based on preliminary data. It closed lower for the fourth time in the past five sessions.
  • The S&P 500 closed down by 128.61 points, or 2.3%, at 5,427.13. It had its worst day on a percentage basis since Dec. 15, 2022.
  • The Nasdaq Composite ended down by 654.94 points, or 3.6%, at 17,342.41. On a percentage basis, the index had its worst day since Oct. 7, 2022.

Wednesday's market moves were "very much a continuation of the rotational activity we were seeing last week, but it hasn’t turned into an outright derisking yet," said Michael Reinking, a senior market strategist for the New York Stock Exchange.

Nonetheless, "as volatility increases and fast trends begin to break, that does trigger a systematic reduction of risk and we could enter into that feedback loop," Reinking wrote in a note.

Stock Market Today: Dow ends 504 points lower, Nasdaq suffers worst day since 2022 on disappointing big-tech earnings (marketwatch.com)

Europe’s Extended Factory Slump Puts a Chill on Rebound Hopes

In this Article

By Brendan Murray  July 24, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT+1

Anyone betting that Europe’s industrial engine was poised for a second-half rebound received a rude awakening Wednesday.

“The latest developments have proved to be something of a cold shower for those expectations,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski wrote in a research note. “Not the relieving kind on a hot summer’s day, but rather an ice cold shower in the winter when the central heating is broken.”

Brzeski was referring to monthly purchasing managers’ reports that showed, among other down arrows, a deeper contraction in Germany’s factory sector, which has been in retrenchment mode for two years.

France’s manufacturing PMI surprised on the downside, too, failing to reach expansion territory for an 18th straight month.

According to David Powell of Bloomberg Economics, Germany is worse off than France, with “declines in both manufacturing and services, suggesting the country is having to cope with a depressed industrial sector and the anticipated recovery in services from a boost in real incomes appears to be delayed.”

France’s economy “may be receiving a boost from the Olympics and is moving beyond the hiccup caused by the French parliamentary elections and the volatility in the government bond market,” Powell wrote in a research note on the Bloomberg Terminal.

In the euro area more broadly, the manufacturing PMI reading fell to the lowest level of the year.

In a worrying sign for inflation-fighting central bankers, input prices increased at a faster pace across the economy, according to the PMI data, and output prices fell only fractionally.

Supply Chain Latest: Europe’s Factory Slump - Bloomberg

You know, I'm going to start thanking the woman who cleans the restroom in the building I work in. I'm going to start thinking of her as a human being.

Hillary Clinton.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK growth set to continue as manufacturing PMI climbs to two year high

WEDNESDAY 24 JULY 2024 9:44 AM  |  Updated:  WEDNESDAY 24 JULY 2024 10:16 AM

The economy’s strong performance so far in 2024 looks set to continue thanks to the continued recovery of the manufacturing sector, a closely watched survey suggests.

S&P’s ‘flash’ purchasing managers’s index (PMI) came in at 52.7, up from 52.3 last month and slightly higher than the 52.6 expected by economists.

The survey, which measures economic activity in the private sector, is closely watched for signals about the performance of the economy. Anything above 50 indicates that the economy is growing.

The improvement compared to last month was led by the manufacturing sector, which climbed to a two-year high of 51.8. This was up from 50.9 last month. Output in manufacturing increased due to stronger order book volumes, the survey noted.

The services sector also saw a slight pick up in activity, rising to 52.4 from last month’s figure of 52.1. However, activity in the sector remained relatively subdued compared to peaks earlier in the year.

Manufacturing and services firms both saw sales accelerate in July. Companies commented on improving market confidence, particularly in the wake of the election.

The upturn encouraged firms across both sectors to increase their staffing numbers at the quickest pace for just over a year.

Having fallen to a six-month low in June, business confidence rebounded sharply in July, coming in only slightly below February’s two-year high. Political stability, the prospect of interest rate cuts, and an improving picture on the demand side were all cited by firms.

More

UK growth to continue as manufacturing climbs to two year high (cityam.com)

Why a majority of Americans think the economy is already in a recession

July 23, 2024

While Wall Street cheers the country's economic momentum, outlooks among most Americans appear more gloomy, an Affirm survey reported.

The payments company found that three in five Americans think the US is currently in a recession. Respondents indicated that the downturn has lasted 15 months so far. On average, March 2023 was the cited starting point.

But, according to the traditional definition, no recession has materialized. US GDP would need to fall for two successive quarters for this to happen.

But in a lesson that keeps repeating this year, formal data is not always the best depiction of the on-the-ground sentiment.

Why are views so misaligned?

Inflation and rising living costs were top of the list reasons for why consumer sentiment is low, Affirm found. Seven out of 10 Americans see today's inflation rate as a burden on their financial futures, limiting their ability to save and plan ahead.

Respondents also cited hearing money complaints in their social circles, a cutback in spending among friends, and difficulty in paying off credit card debt.

"With confidence in the U.S. economy at a low point, consumers are urgently seeking ways to feel in control of their finances," Vishal Kapoor, Affirm's SVP of Product, said in a press release.

Similar conclusions have been drawn from other surveys released this year. A Northwestern Mutual report previously found that 51% of Americans see inflation as the biggest risk to their financial security, while a Primerica survey reported that 74% of middle-class households planned to cut back spending.

For its part, Wall Street has remained optimistic about the economy's trajectory, given that inflation has progressively come down from its pandemic highs.

For many, the fact that inflation currently stands around 3% backs the notion that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, easing pressure on the economy.

Amid these outlooks, Bank of America found that 68% of investors expect the world to achieve a soft landing. That's when inflation comes down without sparking a recession.

But for consumers, inflation remains high enough to dent budgets. Although spending kept up enough to stall an official recession, Americans have gradually pulled back their buying.

According to the Affirm survey, affected respondents are finding ways to cope. Methods include adopting new budgeting habits and making more strategic spending decisions. For instance, over half are open to "buy now, pay later" payment options.

Why a majority of Americans think the economy is already in a recession (msn.com)

Don't let anybody tell you it's corporations and businesses that create jobs.

Hillary Clinton.

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Death certificate analysis pushes European COVID toll 18% to 27% higher than official records

July 19, 2024  Mary Van Beusekom, MS

The proportion of COVID-19 deaths in central Europe in 2020 and 2021 would have been up to 18% to 27% higher if death certificates listing the virus as a contributing condition had coded it as the cause of death, estimates a new study published in PLOS One.

University of Warsaw-led researchers examined 187,300 death certificates from Austria, Bavaria (Germany), Czechia (Czech Republic), Lithuania, and Poland mentioning COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. They performed a two-step analysis of cause-of-death association indicators (CDAIs) and contributing CDAIs to estimate the statistical strength of associations between COVID-19 and other conditions.

"Excess deaths reported to causes other than COVID-19 may have been due to unrecognised coronavirus disease, the interruptions in care in the overwhelmed health care facilities, or socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and lockdowns," the authors noted. "Death certificates provide exhaustive medical information, allowing us to assess the extent of unrecognised COVID-19 deaths."

A total of 15,700 death certificates listed COVID-19 as a contributing condition, and three of four recorded a statistically significant COVID-19 complication or pre-existing condition as the cause. 

"In Austria, Bavaria, Czechia, and Lithuania the scale of COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18–27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death," the researchers wrote. "Unrecognised coronavirus deaths were equivalent to the entire surplus of excess mortality beyond registered COVID-19 deaths in Austria and the Czech Republic, and its large proportion (25–31%) in Lithuania and Bavaria."

The undercount may be attributable to a lack of COVID-19 testing, atypical disease course, misclassification, or deaths from other causes such as cardiovascular disease and cancers that may have risen as strained healthcare systems prioritized COVID-19 patients or fallen owing to the reduction of risk factors such as air pollution, traffic, or other infectious diseases. 

"Finally, mortality may have increased due to harmful behaviours typical of the socioeconomic instability experienced by some groups during the pandemics, lockdowns and economic slowdown, such as abuse of noxious substances, suicides and accidents," the researchers wrote.

More

Death certificate analysis pushes European COVID toll 18% to 27% higher than official records | CIDRAP (umn.edu)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Researchers make groundbreaking discovery about graphene

July 24, 2024

Researchers from the Khalifa University of Science and Technology’s Research & Innovation Centre for Graphene and 2D Materials (RIC2D) and the Research Innovation Centre on CO2 and Hydrogen (RICH) have collaborated with others from the University of Manchester to create a new device using graphene to transform next-generation technologies in hydrogen fuel cells, computing, and catalysis.

The research shows that the properties of a graphene sheet can be fine-tuned with the help of electric fields to independently host proton and electron currents, thus setting the stage for a device that serves both computer memory and logic functions.

Researchers have published their paper titled ‘Control of Proton Transport and Hydrogenation in Double-Gated Graphene’, in Nature, the multidisciplinary science journal.

Dr. Ahmed Al Durra, Senior Vice-President, Research and Development, Khalifa University, said: “Khalifa University is delighted to lead and collaborate across disciplines on this groundbreaking discovery about graphene. Featured in Nature, this research breakthrough highlights the significant advancements in the material’s applications. We strongly believe that our work on the computational aspects of this research will contribute to the development of future graphene-based technologies. The research endeavours of both RICH and RIC2D centres and leading international universities is a true testament to the strength of collaboration.”

Dr. Marcelo Lozada-Hidalgo, Senior Lecturer and Royal Society University Research Fellow at the University of Manchester, scientist, lead of the contribution, said: “We hope that this understanding of the connection between electronic and ion transport properties in electrode-electrolyte interfaces in 2D materials will inspire various communities, including physics, catalysis, and interfacial science… It has been a pleasure to collaborate with RIC2D and the Khalifa University team and we are looking forward for many more collaborations between both institutions.”

---- By using a technique known as double gating, where graphene is sandwiched between non-aqueous electrolytes and connected to gate electrodes on each side to induce electrons to flow through the sheet, researchers enabled independent control of proton transport and proton chemisorption (also known as hydrogenation). By precisely tuning the voltages on the electrodes, the authors were able to enhance the perpendicular flow of protons through graphene. Another combination of voltages induced hydrogenation of the crystal lattice and the associated transition to an insulating state, which compromises graphene’s superior electrical conductivity by disrupting the flow of electrons through the sheet.

Dr. Vega said: “Such control between both the proton transport and the two conductive states (insulator and conductor) are so robust and reproducible that can be exploited to build a device that performs both memory and logic functions in a computer, a milestone achievement because it combines the functionalities of two devices into one and eliminates the need for other circuits to link them. The discovery can also have implications in proton-conducting membranes for hydrogen, catalysis and isotope separation.”

Researchers make groundbreaking discovery about graphene - GulfToday

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

We must stop thinking of the individual and start thinking about what is best for society.

Hideous Hillary Clinton.

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