Baltic
Dry Index. 2158 +108 Brent Crude 86.81
Spot Gold 2329 US 2 Year Yield 4.77 +0.06
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go.
Oscar Wilde.
In the US stock casinos, more AI hype. Elsewhere, a more subdued reality.
Is Manhattan real estate an exception or a canary in the coal mine?
Is big pharma teeing up bird flu?
Day two of H2 24.
Asia-Pacific
markets mostly fall as yen hovers at 38-year lows; South Korea inflation in
focus
Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Tuesday,
breaking ranks with Wall Street that saw the Nasdaq Composite reach
a new record on the back of tech stocks.
The index, led by gains in Microsoft, Apple and
chipmaker Nvidia,
advanced 0.83% to end at 17,879.3.
Traders in Asia assessed South Korea’s inflation rate which
came in at 2.4% for June, missing expectations of economists polled by Reuters
who had predicted it at 2.7%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose
0.38%, while the broad-based Topix was up 0.78%.
The Japanese yen weakened
to as much as 161.67 against the dollar, staying at 38-year lows.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed
4.87% to a fresh all-time high, on pace to continue a six-day winning streak.
South Korea’s Kospi was
0.84% lower and the small-cap Kosdaq was 1.77% lower after the inflation data
was released.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was
up 0.37%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was marginally lower.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell
0.6%. This comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from
its June monetary policy meeting, in which board members discussed raising
interest rates but eventually decided to hold them steady at 4.35%.
Members said it was still possible
to achieve the inflation target within a reasonable time frame without moving
from full employment, while acknowledging this “narrow path” was becoming
narrower.
Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P
500 recorded gains, rising 0.13% and 0.27% respectively.
Asia markets: South
Korea CPI, Nasdaq hits new records (cnbc.com)
Stock
futures are little changed after S&P 500 rises to kick off back half of
2024: Live updates
UPDATED TUE, JUL 2 2024 7:44 PM EDT
U.S. stock
futures are little changed Monday night after the major averages closed higher
to start the second half of 2024, as tech stocks outperformed.
Dow
Jones Industrial Average futures fell
43 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500
futures slipped
0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped
nearly 0.2%.
Wall Street is coming off a
positive session for the benchmarks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
0.83% to close at a record, while the S&P 500 rose
0.27%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
50.66 points, or 0.13%.
Investors are deliberating
whether the strong start to the year can continue in the back half of 2024.
While megacap tech stocks continue to outperform, bearish market observers
worry poor breadth could signal choppiness ahead.
---- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
speaks Tuesday at 9:30 a.m. ET before a policy panel at the European Central
Bank Forum. The central bank leader will be part of a panel discussion and will
not be issuing prepared remarks beforehand. He will join ECB President
Christine Lagarde and Roberto Campos Neto, governor of Brazil’s central bank.
CNBC’s Sara Eisen will moderate.
The May job
openings and labor turnover report is also due out Tuesday. Economists polled
by Dow Jones anticipate the number of job openings last month to be 7.9
million, down from 8.1 million in April.
Markets will end
trading early Wednesday, and close Thursday, for the Fourth of July holiday. On
Friday, investors will get insight into the labor market with the June jobs
report.
Stock
market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)
Echoes of dotcom
bubble haunt AI-driven US stock market
By Lewis Krauskopf July 2, 2024 6:03 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) -
A U.S. stock rally supercharged by excitement over artificial intelligence is
drawing comparisons with the dotcom bubble two decades ago, raising the
question of whether prices have again been inflated by optimism over a revolutionary
technology.
AI fever, coupled with a resilient economy and stronger
earnings, has lifted the S&P 500 index (.SPX) to fresh records this year
following a run of more than 50% from its October 2022 low. The tech-heavy
Nasdaq Composite index (.IXIC) has gained over 70% since
the end of 2022.
While various metrics show
stock valuations and investor exuberance have yet to hit peaks reached at the
turn of the century, the similarities are easy to spot. A small group of
massive tech stocks including AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O)symbolize today's market,
recalling the "Four Horsemen" of the late 1990s: Cisco, Dell,
Microsoft and Intel.
The dizzying run in shares of Nvidia, which gained nearly 4,300%
in a recent five-year period, stirred memories of how network equipment maker
Cisco (CSCO.O) surged about 4,500% over
five years leading up to its peak in 2000, according to a BTIG comparison of
the two stocks.
More
Echoes of dotcom bubble haunt AI-driven US stock market | Reuters
In other news.
Japan revises economic growth in 1Q downward, as latest data show sluggish demand and rising prices
July 1, 2024
Analysts had expected the
downward revision in the GDP data for January-March and said it was mainly
based on a change in data on construction activity. The earlier estimate was of
a 1.8% contraction in annual terms.
The quarterly survey by the
Bank of Japan showed a modest improvement in business sentiment among large and
medium-size manufacturers. But details of the survey showed weakness in demand
both in Japan and overseas.
“Across
all industries and firm sizes, business conditions held steady at 12, which is
on past form consistent with (quarterly) GDP growth of around 0%,” Marcel
Thieliant of Capital
Economics said in assessing the
tankan.
“A renewed slowdown in GDP
growth this quarter would be consistent with the slump in industrial production
firms were predicting for June,” he said.
A resumption of normal
production among automakers after they had slowed factory lines due to
shortages of computer chips last year was one factor behind the slight
improvement in overall manufacturing sentiment, economists at ING Economics
said.
---- Japan's economy grew at
a 0.1% annual pace in the last quarter of the year, just barely avoiding two
consecutive quarters of contraction, or a technical recession. It expanded at a
1.8% annual rate in full-year 2023.
Weakness of the Japanese yen
against the U.S. dollar has benefited exporters, who see their profits earned
overseas inflated in yen terms when they are brought back home. But it also has
sharply increased costs for the many commodities and products Japan imports,
especially of oil and gas.
While the Federal
Reserve in the U.S. has keep
interest rates high to try to tame inflation that flared during the pandemic,
Japan’s central bank has kept its benchmark rate near zero to keep credit cheap
in hopes of spurring more spending and investment.
But price increases have have
outstripped increases in Japanese workers' earning power, keeping demand
relatively weak and sapping growth in an economy largely driven by consumer
demand.
Manhattan is now
a ‘buyer’s market’ as real estate prices fall and inventory rises
Manhattan is becoming
a buyer’s market as apartment prices fell and inventory rose in the second
quarter of 2024, according to new reports.
The average real
estate sales price in Manhattan fell 3% to just more than $2 million, according
to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel. The median price fell 2% to
$1.2 million, and prices for luxury apartments fell for the first time in more
than a year, according to the report.
The price declines
are a result of rising inventory of apartments for sale, which are also taking
longer to sell. There are now more than 8,000 apartments for sale in Manhattan,
which is higher than the 10-year average of about 7,000, according to Jonathan
Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and research firm.
Manhattan now has a
9.8 month supply of apartments for sale, which means it would take 9.8 months
to sell all of the apartments on the market without any new listings, according
to Brown Harris Stevens. “Any number over 6 months tells us there is too much
supply and we are in a buyer’s market,” according to the Brown Harris Stevens
report.
The falling prices
and rising number of unsold apartments in Manhattan stand in contrast to the
national real estate landscape, where continued tight supply continues to keep
prices high. Brokers and real estate analysts say the strong prices in Manhattan
post-Covid became unsustainable, and both buyers and sellers are finally
capitulating to a higher interest rate environment.
“The buyers and
sellers resolve is weakening,” Miller said. “At a certain point, they can only
wait so long before they feel like they have to make a move.”
With the gap
narrowing between buyer and seller expectations, more deals are closing. There
were 2,609 sales in the second quarter, up 12% from a year ago, according to
the Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel report. That marked the first sales
rebound in two years.
More
Manhattan
is 'buyer's market' as real estate prices fall, inventory rises (cnbc.com)
Scientists
wary of bird flu pandemic 'unfolding in slow motion'
By Julie Steenhuysen and Jennifer Rigby
July
1, 2024 2:16 PM GMT+1
CHICAGO/LONDON, July 1
(Reuters) - Scientists tracking the spread of bird flu are increasingly
concerned that gaps in surveillance may keep them several steps behind a new
pandemic, according to Reuters interviews with more than a dozen leading
disease experts.
Many of them have been monitoring the new subtype of H5N1 avian
flu in migratory birds since 2020. But the spread of the virus to 129 dairy herds in 12 U.S. states signals a change that could
bring it closer to becoming transmissible between humans. Infections also have
been found in other mammals, from
alpacas to house cats.
"It almost seems like a pandemic unfolding in
slow motion," said Scott Hensley, a professor of microbiology at the
University of Pennsylvania. "Right now, the threat is pretty low ... but
that could change in a heartbeat."
The earlier the warning of a jump to humans, the
sooner global health officials can take steps to protect people by launching
vaccine development, wide-scale testing and containment measures.
Federal surveillance of U.S. dairy cows is
currently limited to testing herds before they cross state lines. State testing
efforts are inconsistent, while testing of people exposed to sick cattle is
scant, government health officials and pandemic flu experts told Reuters.
"You need to know which are the positive
farms, how many of the cows are positive, how well the virus spreads, how long
do these cows remain infectious, the exact transmission route," said Dutch
flu virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam.
More
Scientists wary of bird flu pandemic 'unfolding in slow motion' | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Ahead in markets: The focus remains on EU
inflation and US jobs data
Published on 01/07/2024 - 7:30 GMT+2
The week will be focused on key economic data and
political events including the euro area’s inflation readings, jobs data from
the US, and the UK’s general election.
Financial markets will
focus on several key economic data points that could shape market trends for
the week. The Eurozone is set to release its estimated inflation reading for
June, while leaders of global central banks are poised to speak at the ECB Forum.
Additionally, the US is scheduled to release key jobs data, which will provide
insights into the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. The UK's general election
will also be in the spotlight.
Europe
Germany will report its
preliminary CPI for June. The country’s annual inflation increased to 2.4% in
May, the highest in five months. Costs in services were the primary driver of
price increases. Consensus forecasts Germany’s inflation may remain sticky,
with a 0.2% increase month on month in June.
More importantly, Eurostat
is set to release the initial estimate of inflation data for the euro area,
based on energy prices and preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports from
13 euro area member states. Annual inflation climbed to 2.6% in May from 2.4%
in April, the highest in three months. The resurgence of energy prices was the
biggest contributor to the increase. Early releases from major euro area
economies indicate that inflation may be slightly cooler for June, with
consensus suggesting consumer prices will rise by 2.5%, and core inflation,
excluding food and energy, will ease to 2.8% from 2.9% in the previous month.
Additionally, the
President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, will speak at
the ECB forum on Wednesday, providing guidance for the central bank’s interest
rate trajectory and economic outlook.
The US
It will be a shortened
trading week on Wall Street due to the Independence Day holiday. The key focus
in the US will be on the country’s labour market and the FOMC meeting minutes.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will also speak at the ECB Forum, which will be a key
event for the global markets.
On Wednesday, the JOLTS
job openings data for May will provide a leading indicator of the overall
health of the US labour market. Job openings fell to just above 8 million in
April, the lowest level since February 2021, suggesting that the country’s labour
market was cooling. This data will be followed by the non-farm payroll report
for June on Friday, offering further insights into employment conditions.
The FOMC meeting minutes
will also be released on Wednesday, providing clues on the Fed’s interest rate
path. The reserve bank kept the interest rate on hold in a range of 5.25% to
5.5% in its June meeting and projected that there would be only one rate cut
this year, instead of three cuts anticipated during the previous meeting in
March.
The US added 272,000 new
jobs in May, up from 165,000 in April, but the unemployment rate rose to 4% for
the first time since January 2022. Despite these signs of softening, the
country’s labour market remains tight, which may continue to delay the Fed’s
decision to cut rates. Consensus forecasts predict 189,000 new jobs to be added
and the unemployment rate to remain at 4%.
More
Ahead in markets: The focus remains on EU inflation and US jobs data | Euronews
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
AstraZeneca's
COVID prevention drug application gets EU fast-track assessment
July 1, 2024
(Reuters) - AstraZeneca said on
Monday the EU drug regulator has accepted a market authorisation application
for its investigational COVID-19 prevention drug, Sipavibart, under an
accelerated assessment.
The submission was based on positive
data from a late-stage trial that showed the drug helped reduce the incidence
of COVID-19 in immunocompromised patients.
AstraZeneca's COVID prevention drug application gets
EU fast-track assessment (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
First discovery of natural graphene on Moon
challenges old theories
June 30, 2024
Researchers from Jilin University in China made a remarkable
discovery while analyzing lunar soil samples brought back by the Chang'e-5
mission in 2020. Finding naturally occurring graphene could revolutionize our
understanding of the Moon's history and geological evolution.
During their study of the material
brought back from the Moon by the Chang'e-5 probe in December 2020, Chinese
scientists came across a fascinating find. They identified
naturally occurring multilayer graphene in lunar soil samples, marking
the first discovery of its kind in the history of
Moon research.
This
information was reported by the state news agency Global Times, highlighting
the potential significance of this discovery for future plans to utilize lunar
resources by humanity—according to the specialized website futurism.com.
Graphene, a material
consisting of a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal
structure, has fascinated scientists for years due to its unique
properties. Discovering its naturally occurring form on the Moon
opens up new research perspectives and could have far-reaching
consequences for our understanding of geological processes occurring on the
surface of Earth's satellite.
The research team from Jilin
University, led by a group of experienced scientists, published their
findings in the prestigious journal National Science Review. In this article,
the researchers presented a detailed analysis of the found material and
its potential implications for existing theories about the Moon's formation and
evolution.
One of the most intriguing aspects of
this discovery is its potential to challenge the long-held theory of the Moon's
formation. According to the dominant view so far, the Moon was formed as
a result of a collision between a small planet, comparable in
size to Mars, and the young Earth about 4.45 billion years ago. This theory,
known as the giant-impact hypothesis, assumed that most of the carbon present
on the Moon came from this catastrophic event.
---- The researchers hypothesized about the possible origin of
lunar graphene. According to their theory, this material could have formed due
to prolonged exposure to the solar wind on the Moon's surface. Early volcanic
eruptions on the Moon could have also contributed to forming this unique carbon
structure.
---- However, researchers from Jilin University are cautious
in their conclusions. They acknowledge that the role of meteorites in
the formation of graphite carbon on the Moon's surface cannot be entirely ruled
out. Previous studies suggested the possibility of such a scenario,
and the discovery does not unequivocally exclude this possibility.
The research team emphasizes that
further in-depth analyses of natural lunar graphene properties are necessary.
Such studies could provide valuable information about the geological evolution
of the Moon and also shed new light on the processes occurring on its surface
over billions of years.
First discovery of natural graphene on Moon challenges
old theories (msn.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything, the young know everything.
Oscar Wilde.
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