Baltic
Dry Index. 1966 -55 Brent
Crude 86.54
Spot
Gold 2392 U S 2 Year Yield 4.60 -0.11
The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.
Albert Einstein.
Not much need for me
to put in my two cents worth this morning. The great disconnect between the
stock casinos hyping the Great AI dot.con two bubble continues, even as the
Great Global Drift into recession unfolds.
Tomorrow, will France
follow GB into national election calamity?
Get gold.
European stocks close lower as investors digest UK
election results
LONDON — European stocks closed lower on Friday as
investors digested the Labour Party’s landslide U.K. election victory.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index closed
0.45% lower, while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 index provisionally
finished the week 0.22% lower.
The primary news story on investors’ minds Friday
was the result of the U.K.’s general election, with the opposition Labour Party
winning a huge parliamentary majority, unseating the incumbent Conservatives
after 14 years.
The FTSE 350 household goods and home construction
index ended the session 2.5% higher on Friday, as traders reacted to news of
the Labour Party’s win.
---Labour
passed the threshold needed to govern alone early on Friday morning, as
outgoing PM Rishi Sunak conceded defeat. Keir Starmer, leader of the
center-left Labour Party, has
now become the country’s new prime minister. Analysts expect the
Labour victory to boost U.K. markets over time, particularly when it comes to
housebuilding.
In a research note Friday, analysts
at RBC Capital Markets said that if Labour’s
election pledges turn into policy, it could mark the dawning of a
“new age” for U.K. housebuilding.
----Labour
passed the threshold needed to govern alone early on Friday morning, as
outgoing PM Rishi Sunak conceded defeat. Keir Starmer, leader of the
center-left Labour Party, has
now become the country’s new prime minister. Analysts expect the
Labour victory to boost U.K. markets over time, particularly when it comes to
housebuilding.
In a research note Friday, analysts
at RBC Capital Markets said that if Labour’s
election pledges turn into policy, it could mark the dawning of a
“new age” for U.K. housebuilding.
European
stocks close lower as investors digest UK election results (cnbc.com)
Britain’s Labour pulled off a thumping election
victory with just 34% of the national vote
LONDON — The U.K.’s Labour Party won a huge
parliamentary majority in the country’s general election, but a quirk of the
British electoral system means it did so with just 34% of the total votes cast.
Results show that the opposition
Labour Party has won
412 parliamentary seats of the total 650, with just two seats
yet to be declared. This translates as roughly 63% of the total seats, but
Labour has won just 34% of the total “popular” vote, while the Conservative
Party has secured nearly 24% of that number.
Meanwhile, smaller parties
including the centrist Liberal Democrats, right-wing Reform U.K. and the Greens
took nearly 43% of the popular vote but gained just less than 18% of the seats
available.
More
UK
election 2024: Britain's Labour pulled off a thumping election victory
(cnbc.com)
S&P 500, Nasdaq post record closes Friday as jobs
report raises Fed rate cut hopes: Live updates
UPDATED FRI, JUL 5 2024 4:41 PM EDT
The S&P 500 rose
to a new high on Friday, posting a record close as the latest jobs report
reignited hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The broad market index advanced
0.54%, closing at 5,567.19, while the Nasdaq Composite gained
0.90% to end at 18,352.76. Both indexes reached all-time highs during the
session and ended at records, with the S&P 500 registering its 34th record
close in 2024. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average added
0.17%, or 67.87 points, ending at 39,375.87.
The S&P 500′s rally this year
has grown to 16.7%, with the benchmark posting its fourth positive week in the
last five as investors bet that any economic weakness later this year will be
met with a Federal Reserve rate cut. The Nasdaq’s year-to-date gain is 22.3%.
Widely monitored labor
data released Friday morning reflected a 206,000 increase in
nonfarm payrolls in June, but a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, which
rose to 4.1%. Economists expected the jobless rate to remain steady at 4%.
Treasury yields fell following
the report on expectations the uptick in unemployment would spur the Fed to cut
interest rates later this year. Investors hiked their bets on a September
interest rate cut, with odds of a quarter-point cut increasing to about 77%, up
from 64% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“On one hand, the downward revisions to prior
months and the rise in the unemployment rate raises the odds of a September Fed
rate cut — bond markets are certainly celebrating this,” said Seema Shah, chief
global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “But those same figures cannot
help but prompt a twinge of concern about the direction of the U.S. economy.
The broad host of economic data all point to a softening — today’s report adds
to that picture.”
More
Stock
market news for July 5, 2024 (cnbc.com)
{US} Labor market
losing steam
July 5,
2024
The
labor market is showing signs of
weakness, Axios Macro co-authors Courtenay Brown and
Neil Irwin write.
- Employers are easing hiring, and the share of jobless Americans is
rising.
📊
By the numbers: There were 206,000 jobs added
to U.S. payrolls last month, according to today's jobs report — a decent gain.
But downward revisions to prior months' data show a more rapid slowdown than
previously thought.
🏦
Why it matters: The Fed might not be able to
continue its inflation fight without risking further weakness in a labor market
that is the bedrock of the economy.
- Today's jobs numbers in isolation probably aren't enough to trip alarm bells, but paired
with softer readings on inflation and consumer spending, a September
interest rate cut now looks more likely than not.
15 Indicators Britain May Be Facing
Another Recession
July 5,
2024
With growing economic challenges,
Britain could be on the brink of another recession. Here are 15 compelling
reasons that suggest a downturn may be imminent.
More
15 Indicators Britain May Be Facing Another Recession
(msn.com)
Finally, is a food
crisis next? Hopefully not, but Norway isn’t taking any chances.
Emergency
Grain Stockpiling Highlights World’s Food Worries
July 5, 2024 at 12:00 PM GMT+1
Norway is building a grain stockpile to prepare for a potential
crisis.
To help shield the country from any trade disruptions or
harvest failures, up to 82,500 tons of state-owned grains will be stored by
private companies. The government plans to have enough milling wheat to last
three months by 2029.
“This is about being prepared for the unthinkable,” Finance
Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum said when the plan was announced last week.
The measures are a success for the agrarian Center Party, a
coalition partner, which for years has advocated for grain reserves and needs
revived support from their farmer voter base ahead of next year’s election.
But the move resonates beyond domestic politics, pointing
to a deeper anxiety over food.
Governments around the world are fretting over securing
supplies for growing populations. In recent years, supply chains have been hit
by shocks such as the Covid pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, crop-export
bans, shipping disruptions and erratic weather. High grocery costs have
strained consumers, making food and farming one of the key issues in election campaigns.
“We are living in a world of overlapping emergencies,” said
Isabella Weber, of the University of Massachusetts Amherst. “More shocks are
likely to come, which means that the price volatility in these essential
commodities is likely to continue to be high.”
That risks leading to inflation and contributing to
macroeconomic instability, raising questions about what can be done in a sector
like food, she said in an interview.
More
Global Food Roundup: Crisis Grain Stockpile Highlights
Food Worries - Bloomberg
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
Germany's economy suffers fresh setback after factory
orders fall for fifth month in a row
July 4, 2024
Germany’s economy suffered a fresh blow after
official figures showed factory orders fell for a fifth month in a row in May.
The 1.6 per cent decline compared to the
previous month came as a surprise to economists, who expected a rise of 0.5 per
cent.
New orders are down by 8.6 per cent on the
same month last year.
The figures underscore the turmoil in Europe’s
biggest economy under its fragile coalition government led by Olaf Scholz’s
Social Democratic Party, which is contending with the rise of the far-right.
Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Hauck
Aufhaeuser Lampe Privatbank, said: ‘The downward trend is still in full swing.’
Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of
Germany’s economy, has been hit by a series of crises, including the Ukraine
war, which has reduced access to cheap Russian gas.
Its powerhouse car-making industry is also in flux
amid the transition to electric vehicles.
Trade relations with China, which is experiencing
its own economic woes, are a further headache.
The latest official figures from Germany come after
a separate purchasing managers’ index survey this week suggested that the gloom
in the country’s factory sector extended into June.
It showed a decline to 43.5, down from 45.4 in May
– on a measure where 50 separates growth from contraction.
By contrast, figures from the UK showed
manufacturers enjoying their strongest spell of growth for more than two years
– though this slowed slightly last month.
Germany's economy suffers fresh setback after factory
orders fall for fifth month in a row (msn.com)
My
take.
Even with US unemployment rising to 4.1 percent, the Sahm recession Rule still hasn't been triggered on a 3 month moving average basis on a one year time frame, the rise coming in at a 0.40 percent increase rather than the 0.50 percent increase needed.
Correction. What do I know, compared to the professionals?
June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead? | AIER
Or maybe the St Louis Fed is correct at 0.43 for June.
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
On my faster adjusted Sahm Rule basis, dropping the moving averages, but still sticking to the one year timeframe, the faster SR was hit in June at 0.50, rising to 0.60 with yesterday's figure of 4.1 percent.
My logic behind speeding up the SR, is that the employment figures already lag slightly and further lagging them with a 3 month moving average makes the SR to slow to pick up the actual turn.
I think today's increase to 0.60 simply confirms last month's June faster SR recession signal.
The super fast McKelvey Rule using just 0.33, triggered recession signal last October.
The Schannep Rule using a rise of 0.4 %, triggered in June and remained at 0.4 with today's release.
My guess is that the official
Sahm Rule indicator will be triggered by September.
Covid-19
Corner
This section will
continue until it becomes unneeded.
New Covid-19 variants emerge, sparking global health concerns
as cases surge
The
latest surge in cases has been driven by FLiRT variants and health experts say
another two strains have now been found
08:27, 5 Jul 2024
Two new
Covid variants have emerged as the virus continues to spread globally. In response
to the rising cases, UK hospitals have reinstated mask mandates
as they grapple with full wards and an uptick in coronavirus hospitalisations.
The
recent spike in infections has been attributed to the FLiRT strains KP2 and
JN1, but now health authorities are tracking two additional variants, named
FLuQE and de-FLiRT. Queensland's top health official, John Gerrard, has
indicated that these variants are under close observation due to a
winter-driven surge in Australia, where Covid has become the third leading cause of death for the first
time in 50 years due to an infectious disease.
The FLuQE variant is rapidly
spreading in the USA, while the UK has seen a 33.5% increase in Covid cases
week on week. England reported 146 Covid-related deaths, marking a 5% rise.
Adrian Esterman, a
biostatistician from the University of South Australia, commented, "It's
really starting to take off and in America, it's starting to skyrocket."
He cautioned that FLuQE
might be more contagious and better at evading immunity, reports Gloucestershire Live.
Professor Paul Griffin from
the University of Queensland told SBS, "We're sicker than usual this
winter, and we're seeing a lot of things circulated simultaneously."
He noted that FLuQE has
overtaken FLiRT as the predominant strain.
During the peak of the
pandemic, UK health officials kept a close eye on Australia's Covid situation
to predict the potential impact on the UK in the upcoming winter.
New Covid-19 variants emerge, sparking global health
concerns as cases surge - Mirror Online
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Graphene
oxide films show tunable properties for integrated photonics applications
July 4, 2024
|
(Nanowerk Spotlight)
The field of integrated photonics has seen remarkable progress in recent
years, driven by the demand for faster, more efficient, and compact optical
devices. As researchers push the boundaries of what is possible with
traditional materials, attention has turned to novel two-dimensional
(2D) materials as potential game-changers. Among
these, graphene oxide (GO)
has emerged as a particularly promising candidate due to its unique optical
and thermal properties. |
|
GO is a derivative of graphene - the single-layer carbon
material that sparked a scientific revolution when it was first isolated in
2004. Unlike pristine graphene, GO contains oxygen-containing functional
groups attached to its carbon lattice. This gives GO some advantageous
characteristics, including the ability to tune its properties through
controlled reduction processes. As researchers have explored GO's potential
for photonic applications, they have uncovered a wealth of intriguing
capabilities. |
|
However, fully harnessing GO's properties for practical devices
has proven challenging. The material's behavior can vary significantly based
on factors like the number of layers and degree of reduction. Additionally,
GO exhibits strong anisotropy - meaning its properties differ depending on
the direction light travels through it. While this anisotropy could enable
novel functionalities, it also complicates device design and fabrication. |
|
Another key hurdle has been precisely integrating GO films with
standard photonic structures in a way that preserves and leverages its unique
attributes. Many promising lab demonstrations have struggled to translate
into manufacturable devices compatible with existing silicon photonics
platforms. Overcoming this integration challenge is critical for GO to move
beyond academic interest and into real-world applications. |
|
Recent advances in nanofabrication techniques and GO synthesis
methods have opened new avenues for addressing these obstacles. Researchers
can now create GO films with unprecedented control over thickness and
reduction level. Meanwhile, improved integration processes allow GO to be
incorporated into photonic devices without damaging its desirable properties. |
|
These developments have set the stage for a more comprehensive
exploration of GO's potential in integrated photonics. A new study, conducted
by an international team of researchers, aims to provide just that by
systematically investigating the thermo-optic properties of 2D GO films
integrated with silicon nitride microring resonators. |
|
The research, published in Advanced Functional
Materials ("2D
Graphene Oxide: A Versatile Thermo-Optic Material"),
represents one of the most thorough characterizations of GO's behavior in an
integrated photonic context to date. The team fabricated a series of devices
consisting of silicon nitride microring resonators coated with GO films of
varying thicknesses and reduction levels. They then conducted extensive
measurements to quantify key optical and thermal properties of the GO films. |
More
Graphene oxide films show tunable properties for
integrated photonics applications (nanowerk.com)
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Albinoni the oboe king. Approx. 10 minutes.
Tomaso
Albinoni - Concerto for Two Oboes Op. 9, No. 6
Tomaso Albinoni - Concerto for Two Oboes Op. 9, No. 6
- YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 14 minutes.
Bobby
Fischer Was on Another Level!
Bobby Fischer Was on Another Level! - YouTube
This
weekend’s final diversion Approx. 6 minutes.
Why
Bill Gates’ New Natrium Reactor is a Big Deal
Why Bill Gates’ New Natrium Reactor is a Big Deal -
YouTube
The more I study science, the more I believe in God.
Albert Einstein.
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