Baltic
Dry Index. 2064 -115 Brent Crude 86.87
Spot Gold 2357 US 2 Year Yield 4.71 -0.03
In
the run up to the UK General Election on July 4, the LIR will play its part.
What
did Venezuelan socialists use before candles?
Electricity!
In our world turning upside down, according
to the polls, the UK is about to vote in a far left government today; stocks
make new highs; President Biden Joe Biden say he won’t go, but will
remain the Democratic candidate for president in November.
I wonder what Democratic donors will make of that? Rejoicing in Moscow, Tehran and Beijing.
After the drama in the UK today, it’s France’s turn again on Sunday in the runoff Parliamentary election vote.
Meanwhile, the great disconnect in stocks
from a slowing economic reality reaches new extremes.
Japan and Taiwan
markets hit all-time highs as Asia-Pacific markets rise
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly up Thursday as
Japan’s Topix crossed its all-time high of 2,886.50, previously set in December
1989.
The Topix jumped 0.37%, while the Nikkei 225 rose
0.2%. The Nikkei is less than 200 points from its all-time high of 40,888.43.
SoftBank
Group shares
hit another record high, extending their winning streak to a seventh day, up
2.5%.
Japanese companies have delivered the largest wage hikes in three decades this
year, according to the nation’s biggest labor union.
Monthly pay for union-backed
workers will climb 5.1% on average this fiscal year ending March 2025,
according to a survey of companies conducted since March by union group Rengo.
Big firms with 300 or more
union-backed employees raised wages by 5.19%, while smaller firms increased pay
by 4.45%.
Higher wage growth will help the
country realize a “virtuous cycle” of rising prices and wages, allowing the
Bank of Japan to raise interest rates and normalize its monetary policy.
The Taiwan Weighted
Index also
reached a fresh high, surpassing its previous record of 23,406.1 set on June
20. The index was powered by chip stocks, with Hon Hai Precision
Industry —
known internationally as Foxconn — gaining over 5%, while heavyweight Taiwan
Semiconductor Manufacturing Company was
up 2.66%
Investors also assessed other data
from the region, such as Hong Kong business activity and Australian trade
numbers released Thursday.
S&P Global reported that Hong Kong’s
composite purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.2 in June, down from 49.2 in
the previous month. This represents the second straight month that private
sector output fell, with June’s pace of contraction being the fastest in over two
years.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose
0.23%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 was flat.
Asia
markets: Nasdaq, S&P 500 record, Topix reaches all-time high (cnbc.com)
European markets
head for higher open as UK election takes place
LONDON — European stocks are expected to open
higher Thursday, with the U.K.’s general election in focus in the region.
The U.K.’s FTSE index
is expected to open 12 points higher at 8,181, Germany’s DAX up
26 points at 18,404, France’s CAC 40 up
12 points at 7,650 and Italy’s FTSE MIB up
45 points at 34, 067, according to data from IG.
The U.K. general election is being
held Thursday. Polls open from 7a.m. to 10 p.m. local time. Voter polls
conducted in the run-up to the election pointed to a significant win for the
center-left Labour Party, potentially ending 14 years of Conservative Party
rule.
Overnight, Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly up Thursday as Japan’s Topix crossed its
all-time high of 2,886.50, previously set in December 1989.
The S&P 500 rose to
new highs in Wednesday’s shortened trading session as investors appeared to
shrug off sluggish economic data. Trading volume was muted Wednesday, with the
New York Stock Exchange closing early at 1 p.m. ET. The exchange will be shut
on Thursday for Independence Day.
There are no major European
earnings or data releases Thursday.
European
markets: UK general election takes place, data, earnings (cnbc.com)
Goldman:
Hedge funds sold global equities at the fastest pace in two years in June
July 2, 2024
Hedge funds continued to sell global equities for a third consecutive month in June, marking the fastest pace of selling since June 2022, according to Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage desk. The sales were chiefly driven by short sales, as overall long flows remained relatively flat, Goldman said in a note.
“Single Stocks were net sold for a
second straight month and saw the largest notional net selling since Nov ‘22,
driven by short sales outpacing long buys 4 to 1. 9 of 11 global sectors were
net sold in June, led in notional terms by Info Tech, Financials, Real Estate,
and Staples,” the note states.
Macro products, including indices and
exchange-traded funds (ETFs), were marginally net bought in June, driven by
risk unwinds with short covers slightly exceeding long sales. Excluding
mark-to-market adjustments, US-listed ETF shorts on the Prime book decreased by
6.8% in June, with significant short covering in Small Cap Equity, Financials,
Industrials, Real Estate, and Health Care ETFs.
“ETF shorts now make up 10.2% of the
US equity short book (excl. Index products), the lowest level since Dec ‘19 and
near five-year lows in the 3rd percentile,” compared to 11.1% at the end of May
and 10.8% at the start of 2024, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) highlighted.
In regional activity, hedge funds
sold developed market (DM) Asia stocks for the first time in six months and at
the fastest pace since September. All DM Asia markets were net sold, led by
Singapore, Australia, Hong Kong, and Japan. North America and Europe also saw
net selling in notional terms.
Emerging market (EM) Asia was the
most net bought region in June, continuing a trend of net buying in six of the
last seven months. Korea and Taiwan were the most net bought markets, which
outweighed net selling in China and Thailand.
Chinese equities were net sold for
the second month in a row, with net selling in American Depositary Receipts
(ADRs) and H-shares surpassing net buying in A-shares.
Sector-wise, 8 of 11 sectors were net
sold in June, led by Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) and Consumers stocks.
Goldman: Hedge funds sold global equities at the
fastest pace in two years in June (msn.com)
China faces
economic headwinds as it grapples with an aging — and shrinking — population
China’s population is shrinking, and the
demographic shift will ultimately hurt its economy, shrink the labor force and
put pressure on fiscal policy.
“The working age population [in
China] will fall so rapidly over the next decade, that the Chinese economy will
need to deal with 1% drag in GDP growth per year for next 10 years,” Darren
Tay, head of Asia country risk at BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis,
told “Squawk Box Asia” in
June, referring to estimates gathered by evaluating world population data released by the
United Nations.
“The fiscal strain as a result of
ageing is immediate and concerning,” the Economist Intelligence Unit has warned.
“Economic growth hinges on
productivity, capital accumulation and labour inputs. The negative effect of an
adverse demographic landscape will manifest primarily through a shrinking
workforce,” according to the report published in January.
Raising the retirement age is “one
of the few viable options” to maintain long-term fiscal balance, the EIU said.
“Our calculations suggest
that if the retirement age is raised to 65 by 2035, the pension budget
shortfall could be reduced by 20% and received net pension can be
increased by 30%, suggesting relief of both government and household burden,”
according to the report.
Birth rates are falling around the
world as women choose to have children later, or not at all.
---- China’s population fell for a second
consecutive year in 2023 to 1.409 billion people — dropping by 2.08 million
from the previous year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
That’s more than the population decline of about 850,000 in 2022 —
the first year deaths outnumbered births in the country since the early 1960s
during the Great
Famine.
“This is a consequence of the
one-child policy [set] in place [in] the 1980s,” Erica Tay, director of macro
research at Maybank, told CNBC.
China’s population is expected to
shrink to 1.317 billion by 2050, and drop by nearly half — to 732 million — by
2100.
More
China's working population is shrinking, facing low birth rate (cnbc.com)
Finally, more bad EV battery news from South Korea.
Surge in Lithium Battery Incidents Raises Safety
Concerns in South Korea
Posted on July 2, 202
SEOUL, Jul. 2 (Korea Bizwire) –A recent spate of lithium battery-related incidents in South Korea has thrust the safety and environmental concerns surrounding these ubiquitous power sources into the spotlight.
From public transportation mishaps to industrial accidents and mounting disposal challenges, the risks associated with lithium batteries are becoming increasingly apparent.
On July 1, a fire broke out in the Seoul subway system, caused by a lithium battery installed in a maintenance vehicle. The incident occurred at approximately 3:42 a.m. on a motor car used for track maintenance as it was moving along the southbound track of Line 3 at Daechi Station, prompting an immediate response from emergency services.
A fire department official stated, “The burning battery was quickly detached and submerged in a water tank to extinguish the flames. The motor car was then towed to the Suseo train depot.”
The fire was fully extinguished by 8:41 a.m., about five hours after it began. While there were no casualties, the incident caused significant disruptions to subway services.
Train operations between Apgujeong and Suseo stations were suspended in both directions immediately after the accident. Service resumed at around 5:40 a.m., although Daechi Station remained closed to passengers as smoke evacuation procedures were carried out. The station returned to normal operations at 6:15 a.m.
This subway incident came just a week after a deadly blaze at a lithium battery factory in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, which claimed 23 lives and injured eight others. The tragedy at the Aricell factory on June 24 was reportedly triggered by a single primary battery catching fire, leading to a chain of explosions.
These events underscore the volatile nature of lithium batteries. Experts explain that fires can occur when the separator between the positive and negative electrodes is damaged, causing them to come into contact and resulting in rapid overheating.
This heat can lead to fire and
explosion, with lithium battery fires being notoriously difficult to extinguish
using conventional methods.
The risks extend beyond industrial and public transport settings. The proliferation of devices using lithium-based batteries in everyday life has led to a dramatic increase in their disposal, raising significant environmental and safety concerns.
According to data from the Korea
Battery Recycling Association, the volume of discarded lithium batteries has
surged nearly fivefold over the past decade.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Fed says it’s not
ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal
Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting
indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly
enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed.
“Participants affirmed that
additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that
inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the meeting summary said.
Though the minutes reflected
disagreement from the 19 central bankers who took part in the discussion, with
some even indicating a penchant toward raising rates if necessary, the meeting
concluded with Federal Open Market Committee voters holding rates in place.
The Fed targets 2% annual
inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Officials at the
meeting said data has improved lately, though they are want more evidence that
it will continue.
Meeting participants “emphasized
that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range
for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give
them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the
Committee’s 2 percent objective.”
At the meeting, policymakers also
provided an update on economic projections and monetary policy over the next
several years.
The FOMC “dot plot” showed one
quarter percentage point cut by the end of 2024, down from the three indicated
following the last update in March. Even though the dot plot indicated one cut
this year, futures markets continue to price in two, starting in September.
Also, the committee largely left
its economic projections intact, though they lowered their inflation
expectations for this year.
In discussions over how they would
approach monetary policy, the minutes reflected some disagreements. Some
members noted the need to tighten the reins should inflation persist, while
others made the case that they should be ready to respond should the economy
falter or the labor market weaken.
“Several participants observed
that, were inflation to persist at an elevated level or to increase further,
the target range for the federal funds rate might need to be raised,” the
minutes stated. “A number of participants remarked that monetary policy should
stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness.”
The minutes do not identify
individual members nor do they provide exact amounts for the number of
officials expressing particular viewpoints. However, in the Fed parlance, “a
number” is considered more than “several.”
The summary also noted a “vast
majority” saw economic growth “gradually cooling” and that the current policy
is “restrictive,” a key term as the officials contemplate how restrictive
policy needs to be while bringing down inflation and not causing undue economic
harm.
More
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Judge gives split ruling in Covid-19 vaccine patent
legal battle
July 2, 2024
A legal battle between rival
developers of Covid-19 jabs over life-saving vaccine technology patents has
produced a mixed ruling from a High Court judge.
Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer and drug manufacturer BioNTech have been locked in a dispute with vaccine
maker Moderna over the use of messenger RNA (mRNA) technology in
coronavirus jabs.
The rival firms faced off at
two trials in London earlier this year amid parallel litigation in the US,
Germany, the Netherlands and other countries.
US firm
Moderna sued American competitor Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech for
alleged patent infringement in relation to their Comirnaty vaccine, arguing it
was due compensation for products manufactured after March 7 2022.
Pfizer and BioNTech believe
in the value and strength of our innovative science and our own intellectual
property.
Moderna’s Spikevax vaccine was the
third jab to be approved for use in the UK in January 2021 after the
Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were approved.
Pfizer said in a statement, echoed by
BioNTech, after the ruling: “Pfizer and BioNTech believe in the value and
strength of our innovative science and our own intellectual property.
“While we are pleased that one patent
(EP565) has been found invalid, we are disappointed in the court’s decision to
uphold the validity of another (EP949).
“We continue to believe that this
second patent is invalid and will seek to appeal this decision.
More
Judge gives split ruling in Covid-19 vaccine patent
legal battle (msn.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Today,
something different. The District of Crooks at work.
A
signature Biden law aimed to boost renewable energy. It also helped a solar
company reap billions
The Associated Press July
1, 2024
WASHINGTON – As he campaigned for the
presidency, Joe Biden promised to spend billions of dollars to “save the world”
from climate change. One of the largest players in the solar industry was
ready.
Officials, board members and major
investors in First Solar, the largest domestic maker of solar panels, donated
at least $1.5 million to Biden’s successful 2020 bid for the White House. After
he won, the company spent $2.8 million more lobbying his administration and
Congress, records show – an effort that included high-level meetings with top
administration officials.
The strategy was a dramatic departure
from the Arizona-based company’s posture under then-President Donald Trump,
whom corporate officials publicly called out as hostile toward renewable
energy. It has also paid massive dividends as First Solar became perhaps the
biggest beneficiary from $1 trillion in environmental spending enacted under
the Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law in 2022 after it
cleared Congress solely with Democratic votes.
Since then, First Solar’s stock price
has doubled and its profits have soared thanks to new federal subsidies that
could be worth up to $10 billion over a decade. The success has delivered a
massive windfall to a small group of Democratic donors who invested heavily in
the company.
Ahead of what’s shaping up to be a
tight race for the White House this year, Biden and fellow Democrats point to
the legislation as an example of investing in alternative energy in ways
that’ll help the environment and lift the economy. But First Solar offers an
example of how that legislation, shaped by lobbyists and potentially influenced
by a flood of campaign cash, can yield mammoth returns to the well-connected.
Angelo Fernández Hernández, a White
House spokesperson, didn’t directly address First Solar’s efforts to curry
favor with the Biden administration.
“President Biden has led and
delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history,” Fernández Hernández
said in a statement. “The White House regularly engages with industry leaders
across all sectors, including clean energy manufacturers and gas and oil
producers.”
In a statement, First Solar CEO Mark
Widmar said the new subsidies have helped build the company’s domestic
footprint. He took a swipe at some of First Solar’s rivals with ties to China,
which dominates the industry.
“Unlike others who routinely spend
substantially more lobbying on behalf of Chinese companies that circumvent US
laws and deepen strategic vulnerabilities, our interests lie in a diverse,
competitive domestic solar manufacturing base supporting American jobs,
economic value, and energy security,” Widmar said.
Founded in 1999, First Solar went
public in 2006, the year former Vice President Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient
Truth” helped raise consciousness about the threat of climate change. Company
officials cultivated a constituency with Democrats during President Barack
Obama’s administration, which in turn subsidized them through billions of
dollars in government-backed loans.
When the Biden administration started
writing rules to implement the Democrats’ new law, First Solar executives and
lobbyists met at least four times in late 2022 and 2023 with administration
officials, including John Podesta, who oversaw the measure’s environmental
provisions.
One of the more intimate gatherings
was attended by Podesta, Widmar and Sloan, as well as First Solar’s contract
lobbyist, Claudia James, a friend of Podesta’s who worked for decades at a
lobbying firm run by Podesta’s brother, records show.
The company will benefit from
billions of dollars in lucrative tax credits for domestic clean energy
manufacturers — a policy aimed at putting the U.S. on a more competitive
footing with green energy giant China. Though intended to reward clean-energy
businesses, the credits can be sold on the open market to companies that have
little to do with fighting climate change.
Last December, First Solar agreed to
sell roughly $650 million of these credits to a tech company – providing a
massive influx of cash, courtesy of the U.S. government.
Investors in the company, including a
handful of major Democratic donors, have also benefited as First Solar’s share
price climbed.
More
Next, our
latest new section, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP
compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
A
Communist, Socialist and Capitalist all agree to meet at a cafe.
The
Communist and the Capitalist arrive on time but the Socialist is late.
A hour later, the Socialist rushes in.
'Sorry I'm late guys' he said, 'I had to wait in line for a sausage'.
'What's a line?' asked the Capitalist.
'What's a sausage?' asked the Communist
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