Wednesday, 10 July 2024

US Stocks Hit New Highs. US Used Car Sales Fall. WW3?

Baltic Dry Index. 1894 -46        Brent Crude  84.40

Spot Gold 2369              US 2 Year Yield 4.62  unch.

I am not an economist. I am an honest man!

Mark Twain.

US stock casinos soar to new Federal debt fuelled, new highs, but in the real US economy, a heavily indebted, out of cash, credit and buy now pay later debt traps, the US consumer is cutting back ahead of a looming recession.

Meanwhile in Washington, District of Crooks, is a desperate, fragile President  Joe Biden and NATO planning World War Three?


Japan’s Nikkei nears all-time intraday high as other Asia markets slip; China inflation weaker than expected

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday, even as key Wall Street benchmarks rose following dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell overnight.

Powell signaled caution over leaving interest rates at too high a level, saying that “reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

Over in Asia, investors will assess inflation data from China and Japan, with China releasing its consumer and producer prices data for June.

Inflation in China narrowly missed expectations, with the consumer price index posting a 0.2% rise in June, softer than the 0.4% rise expected from economists polled by Reuters and down from 0.3% in May.

The country’s PPI fell 0.8% year on year, in line with expectations and a softer fall of 0.8% from May’s 1.4% decline.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index was up 1.01%, while the mainland Chinese CSI 300 was 0.4% down after the CPI announcement.

Separately, Reuters reported that China’s largest insurer, Ping An Insurance, is considering issuing convertible bonds worth up to $5 billion, according to sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Japan’s corporate goods price index rose to 2.9% in June from a year earlier, in line with expectations and climbing at a faster pace compared to a revised 2.6% in May. The CGPI measures the price changes of goods traded within the corporate sector.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended gains from Tuesday, up 0.25% and nearing its all-time intraday high. The broad-based Topix rose 0.34%.

South Korea’s Kospi was down 0.25%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was 0.2% lower.

On Wednesday, the National Samsung Electronics Union, the largest workers’ union of electronics giant Samsung Electronics called for an indefinite strike, following news that it was initially going on strike from Monday to Wednesday.

Shares of Samsung Electronics were up 0.11% despite the announcement.

Separately, South Korean defense manufacturer Hanwha Aerospace announced a 1.38 trillion won ($1 billion) order from Romania to supply K9 howitzers to the country.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.47%.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record Tuesday after Powell’s comments, gaining 0.07% to 5,576.98 and marking its 36th record close of the year.

The Nasdaq Composite added 0.14% to close at 18,429.29, also ending the day at a record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 0.13%.

Asia markets: Powell inflation, China CPI, PPI; Japan CGPI (cnbc.com)


Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 notches another record close: Live updates

UPDATED WED, JUL 10 2024 7:41 PM EDT

Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Tuesday after the S&P 500 notched a fresh record close.

Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 3 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were near the flatline.

Wall Street is coming off a mixed session that pushed the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 to new records as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that keeping rates elevated for too long could stunt economic growth. The S&P 500 edged up 0.07%, while the Nasdaq added 0.14%. The 30-stock Dow ticked down 52.82 points, or 0.13%.

“Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment,” said Powell, speaking to the Senate Banking Committee as part of his semiannual address to Congress on Tuesday. He continues his testimony Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee. “More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell added.

Wednesday marks a light day for economic data, with a final wholesale inventories reading for May due ahead of the June consumer price index reading on Thursday. The June producer price index will follow on Friday.

Many view the upcoming CPI print as a key test for the market and the outlook for rate cuts.

“If we get a cooler print on CPI this week and if get a cooler print on PPI, September will get priced in as a lock,” Liz Young Thomas, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, said on CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Tuesday, cautioning that at some point, cooler data may become too cool.

Stock market today: Live updates (cnbc.com)


Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth

Federal Reserve Chair {sofa, deck chair, settee, pouffe, stool,} Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.

Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal.

“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

The commentary coincides with the approaching one-year anniversary of the last time the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates.

The Fed’s overnight borrowing rate currently sits in a rage of 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in some 23 years and the product of 11 consecutive hikes after inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s.

Markets expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September and likely following up with another quarter percentage point reduction by the end of the year. FOMC members at their June meeting, however, indicated just one cut.

‘Strengthen our confidence’

In recent days, Powell and his colleagues have indicated that inflation data has been somewhat encouraging after a surprise jump to start the year. Inflation as judged by the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index was at 2.6% in May after peaking above 7% in June 2022.

“After a lack of progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective in the early part of this year, the most recent monthly readings have shown modest further progress,” Powell said. “More good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

The statement is part of congressionally mandated semiannual updates on monetary policy. After delivering the remarks, Powell will face questioning from Senate Banking Committee members on Tuesday, then the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

In past appearances, Powell has veered away from making dramatic policy announcements while having to dodge politically loaded questions from committee members. The questioning could get contentious this year as Washington is on edge amid a volatile presidential campaign.

Several Democratic committee members urged Powell to lower rates soon.

More

Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth (cnbc.com)

 

Cox: Used-vehicle wholesale prices fall 8.9% in June from a year ago

Used-vehicle wholesale values fell 0.6 percent in June from May, Cox said July 9. A Cox expert also gave an outlook on diminishing lease maturities.

 

Subscription required.

Cox: Used-car wholesale prices down again in June | Automotive News (autonews.com)

Ukraine will stop Putin, Biden tells NATO in forceful speech

July 10, 2024

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden pledged to forcefully defend Ukraine against Russia's invasion at the NATO summit in Washington on Tuesday, using the global stage to try to show allies at home and abroad that he can still lead.

Biden, 81, has endured 12 days of withering questions about his fitness for office as some of his fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill and campaign donors fear that he will lose the Nov. 5 election after a halting debate performance on June 27.

"(Vladimir) Putin wants nothing less, nothing less, than Ukraine's total subjugation ... and to wipe Ukraine off the map," Biden said in his welcome to NATO member states to the summit, referring to the Russian president. "Ukraine can and will stop Putin."

The White House is hoping he can turn the page on a difficult period in his presidency with his highest profile policy speech since the debate, although some diplomats at the summit said the damage was hard to erase.

More

Ukraine will stop Putin, Biden tells NATO in forceful speech (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Stocks will struggle and a recession is on the table if the Fed fails to cut rates by September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says

July 8, 2024

The rally in stocks and the strength of the economy is at risk if the Fed doesn't start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel.

The top economist, who's been making the case for the Fed to loosen monetary policy for months, pointed to more evidence of a weakening economy in an interview with CNBC on Thursday.

GDP has slowed from its rapid pace of expansion in 2023, with the Atlanta Fed estimating 1.5% growth in the second quarter. The job market, while resilient, is also beginning to stumble, with unemployment ticking up to 4.1% last month.

More job losses have pushed the economy closer to triggering a highly accurate recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule, Siegel noted. The indicator signals the start of a downturn once the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low. The indicator ticked higher to 0.43 last month, according to Fed data.

That, combined with other recession warnings, is creating a more convincing case that the Fed should dial back interest rates, Siegel said, pointing to the inverted Treasury yield curve and the slowing money supply, two additional warnings that a downturn is on the horizon.

"We are in a slowing economy," Siegel said. "I think it's really time for Chairman Powell to really tee up in the July meeting a cut in September, and maybe another one in November. I think inflation is definitely under control, and I don't want to see this slowing economy turn into something worse."

---- No rate cut in September could put a recession on the table, Siegel warned, in addition to endangering the trajectory for stocks. Investors have been ambitiously pricing in rate cuts all year long, with markets now expecting at least 1-2 cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"So although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and the growth stocks are still certainly walloping the value stocks, I think Powell has to take note," Siegel said.

Fed officials will meet at the end of July, but investors are looking at key releases of economic data in the week ahead, which could shape the trajectory of rate cuts later this year.

All eyes will be on the consumer price index to roll out on Thursday, which will give central bankers a better idea of whether high rates are still needed to control inflation.

Stocks will struggle and a recession is on the table if the Fed fails to cut rates by September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says (msn.com)

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Cow flu virus takes 'dangerous step towards infecting humans through respiration'

July 8, 2024

The cow flu virus that has spread through US dairy herds may have taken a "dangerous" step towards being able to infect humans through respiratory infections, scientists have warned.

The H5N1 virus, more commonly found in birds, has so far been confirmed in cattle on more than 100 farms in 12 states, with inactivated fragments of the strain being found in pasteurised milk on supermarket shelves.

Four people working with animals have so far been infected, though symptoms were mild and they did not pass the virus on to anyone else.

Now detailed analysis by scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in the US shows viral samples taken from cows were able to attach to receptors found on cells in the human respiratory tract.

The version of H5N1 found in birds is unable to do that, suggesting the bovine virus has mutated.

Further tests on ferrets, which are commonly used in flu research, found the cow virus could not spread easily by breathing.

However, Dr Ed Hutchinson, from the Medical Research Council and University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, said there were still "reasons to be concerned".

'Urgent' action needed

"When they compared their cow flu isolate to bird flu they found that it had already begun to gain some of the properties that would be associated with the ability to spread effectively through respiratory infections in humans," Dr Hutchinson, who was not involved in the study, said.

"To be clear, it does not appear to be doing this yet, and none of the four human cases so far reported have shown signs of onward transmission.

"However, this new H5N1 influenza virus would be even harder to control, and even more dangerous to humans, if it gained the ability for effective respiratory spread.

"Although it is good news that cow flu cannot yet do this, these findings reinforce the need for urgent and determined action to closely monitor this outbreak and to try and bring it under control as soon as possible."

Unlike normal human flu, which is contained within the respiratory tract, H5N1 is able to spread to other organs in the body, with as-yet unknown effects.

The US government recently gave COVID vaccine manufacturer Moderna £139m to develop an H5N1 jab.

Cow flu virus takes 'dangerous step towards infecting humans through respiration' (msn.com)

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Residents voice concern over battery storage facility plans amid fear of fires

It’s the second battery storage site that has been earmarked for the area.

July 8, 2024

Fearful Aberdeen residents are worried that a proposed battery storage facility could be “dangerous for the whole area” should it go up in flames.

Danestone Community Council in Bridge of Don said it is scared that a blaze at the site could cause a “major disaster”.

Their concerns come after a similar development in Liverpool took hours to extinguish following a fire four years ago.

But despite this, they argue that many locals living just metres away have no idea about the proposal.

Anesco wants to construct a 70MW battery energy storage system (BESS) next to the Persley waste water treatment plant.

It’s the second battery storage site that has been earmarked for the area.

Persley Croft BESS Ltd has lodged plans for a similar development at the former piggery next to the RGS Hutchison and Sons scrapyard.

Both sites would connect to the existing SSEN Persley Grid substation on Station Road and could be in operation for 40 years.

Danestone Community Council member Sarah-Jane Foxen said the potential fire risk was a big concern for the group. They are especially worried about a gas pipe that runs under the site.

She said: “Anesco say that if there is a fire they will just let this burn which is very concerning considering we’ve got a gas pipe, water pipe and petrol station nearby.

“The whole road would be shut down.”

Fellow community councillor Kathryn Duncan added: “I fear it is dangerous for the whole area. It won’t be manned so no-one will be there to stop a fire.

“Who is going to raise the alarm?”

Ms Duncan also voiced her concern about “toxic fumes” that could potentially be created during a blaze.

More

Aberdeen residents voice concern over battery storage facility plans amid fear of fires | STV News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.  

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Consider the average intelligence of the common man, then realize 50% are even stupider. 

Mark Twain.


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