Baltic Dry Index. 2240 +54 Brent Crude 111.63
Spot Gold 1811 US 2 Year Yield 2.92 -0.14 Thurs.
It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.
Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations 1776.
The sky may not actually be falling, but in the central bankster fuelled fantasy world of Magic Money Tree stock casinos and Ponzi scheme cryptocurrency alternate universe, it certainly feels that way.
While it’s impossible to know accurately exactly how much phony wealth has disappeared in 2022, my estimate is that globally 30 to 50 trillion USD has evaporated, generating a reverse wealth effect that will dominate the rest of 2022.
Nothing good lies ahead for the casinos and criminals in cryptocurrency land for the rest of 2022.
Sadly, it will, via a new global recession, probably bring on the 21st century equivalent of the 20th century 1930s.
Things are so bad, the US Treasury hasn’t updated their Treasury yield data, or maybe they just got hacked by Russia for Biden’s proxy war against Russia.
The Dow just booked its worst first half since 1962. What history says about the path ahead.
S&P 500 sees biggest first-half drop since 1970, while tech wreck leaves Nasdaq with largest such decline on record
This bear has claws.
A bear market that began on the first trading day of 2022 drove down the S&P 500 for its worst first six months to a calendar year in 52 years as investors head into the second half fearing aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks could tip the economy into recession.
The S&P 500 SPX, +1.06% fell 20.6% year-to-date through Thursday’s close, marking its biggest first-half decline since a 21.1% fall in 1970, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The large-cap benchmark is down 21.1% from its record finish on Jan. 3. The index earlier this month first ended more than 20% below that early January record, confirming that the pandemic bull market — as widely defined — had ended on Jan. 3, marking the start of a bear.
The S&P 500 has bounced around 3.2% off its 2022 low close of 3,666.77 set on June 16.
Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 has bounced back after past first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size, however, is small, with only five instances going back to 1932 (see table below).
---- Investors, however, may also want to pay attention to metrics around bear markets, particularly with the will-it-or-won’t-it speculation around whether the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening agenda will sink the economy into recession.
Indeed, an analysis by Wells Fargo Investment Institute found that recessions accompanied by a recession, on average, lasted 20 months and produced a negative 37.8% return. Bear markets outside a recession lasted 6 months on average — nearly the length of the current episode — and saw an average return of -28.9%. Taken together, the average bear market lasted an average of 16 month and produced a -35.1% return.
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JPMorgan Sees ‘Stratospheric’ $380 Oil on Worst-Case Russian Cut
By Joe Carroll
Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.
The Group of Seven nations are hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russian oil in a bid to tighten the screws on Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients.
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Major crypto broker Voyager Digital suspends all trading, deposits and withdrawals
Digital asset brokerage Voyager Digital has paused all customer trading, deposits, withdrawals and loyalty rewards, according to a statement released Friday afternoon.
“This was a tremendously difficult decision, but we believe it is the right one given current market conditions,” said Stephen Ehrlich, CEO of lending company Voyager.
Erlich went on to say that the decision is designed to give the firm additional time to continue “exploring strategic alternatives with various interested parties” and that they will provide additional information at “the appropriate time.”
Voyager’s announcement comes amid a raft of margin calls and defaults across the sector, making the digital broker the latest collateral damage of the broad market selloff in cryptocurrency. The two most widely traded cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether, are down more than 70% from their peaks last November, and the May collapse of the UST stablecoin sent shockwaves through an already tumultuous market.
The news comes a few days after one of Voyager’s customers failed to make payments on a loan worth hundreds of millions of dollars, fueling growing concerns of an insolvency contagion effect across the industry.
On Monday, the broker issued a notice that prominent crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC) had defaulted on a loan worth more than $670 million. At the time, Voyager said that it intended to pursue recovery from 3AC, and in the interim, said it would continue to operate and fulfill customer orders and withdrawals.
As of June 24, Voyager said it had approximately $137 million in U.S. dollars and owned crypto assets. The company also noted that it has access to a $200 million credit line in cash and USDC stablecoins, as well as a 15,000 bitcoin ($318 million) revolving credit line from Alameda Ventures, which is FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s quantitative trading firm.
Last week, Alameda committed $500 million in financing to Voyager, and the firm has already pulled $75 million from that line of credit, but it appears that wasn’t enough to keep business running as usual.
Thus far, investors in the world’s two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap seem unfazed by the news. Bitcoin is up about 2% and ethereum is up more than 4% toward the end of regular market hours on Wall Street.
Voyager is a competitor to crypto lending firm BlockFi, which has also been caught in the crosshairs of the sector’s recent liquidity crunch. FTX has just struck a $680 million credit deal to acquire BlockFi, according to The Block.
More
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/voyager-digital-suspends-all-trading-deposits-and-withdrawals-.html
In other news, the EUSSR looks to be heading into a self made recession. As goes Germany so goes the rest of the EUSSR.
Drop in demand weighs on German manufacturing, outlook darkens -PMI
July 1, 2022 9:02 AM GMT+1
BERLIN, July 1 (Reuters) - A sharp fall in new orders weighed on German manufacturing activity in June, darkening the outlook for Europe's largest economy, a survey showed on Friday.
S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, fell to 52.0 in June from May's final reading of 54.8, in line with analysts' expectations and with a flash estimate.
An index on new orders came in a 43.3, falling from 47.0 in May to hit the lowest level since May 2020 and dropping further below the 50 mark, which separates growth from contraction.
"We're seeing a rapid correction in underlying demand for German goods," said Phil Smith, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, adding that firms reported "multiple headwinds to export sales".
"With backlogs now in decline, firms have downgraded their expectations for output over the next 12 months to the gloomiest for over two years," he said.
The survey pointed to some relief on the inflation front, with rates of increase in both input costs and output prices slowing for a second straight month.
"However, it's difficult to untangle any alleviation of pressure coming from the supply side from the effects of weaker demand," Smith added.
Finally, more [alleged] crypto crime. In crypto-land “a fool and his money” springs to mind.
FBI adds ‘Cryptoqueen’ to Ten Most Wanted Fugitives List after alleged $4 billion OneCoin fraud
Published Thu, Jun 30 2022 12:21 PM EDT Updated Thu, Jun 30 20228:25 PM EDT
WASHINGTON — The FBI on Thursday added Dr. Ruja Ignatova, the self-proclaimed ‘Cryptoqueen,’ to its list of Ten Most Wanted fugitives, and is offering a $100,000 reward for information leading to her arrest.
Ignatova, the founder of a cryptocurrency called OneCoin that was launched in 2014, allegedly defrauded investors of more than $4 billion over three years, before disappearing. Europol added her to Europe’s most wanted list last month.
Investigators say the Bulgarian-based project had no blockchain securing transactions and coins were essentially minted out of thin air. Bitcoin, by contrast, is secured by a global network of miners who maintain a public ledger, or blockchain.
The Southern District of New York held a press conference on Thursday morning to announce the addition of Ignatova to its top fugitives list.
Mike Driscoll, the FBI’s assistant director in charge of the New York office said that he was “confident” they would find her eventually. and Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, called Ignatova “an international fugitive who allegedly masterminded a worldwide fraud.”
Williams also noted that Ignatova now “sits side by side on the Top Ten list with cartel leaders, murderers, and terrorists.”
Ignatova has been in the criminal justice system for at least a half-decade. She was indicted by a federal grand jury in October 2017, and the Southern District of New York subsequently issued an arrest warrant.
In February 2018, a superseding indictment was issued, charging Ignatova with one count each of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering, conspiracy to commit securities fraud and securities fraud. Each count carries a sentence of up to 20 years.
As for Ignatova’s whereabouts, the FBI noted in a press release that the OneCoin founder traveled from Bulgaria to Greece on Oct. 25, 2017, though she could have continued on from there.
“She may travel on a German passport to the United Arab Emirates, Bulgaria, Germany, Russia, Greece and/or Eastern Europe,” the FBI said.
Ignatov’s brother, Konstantin, who also served in a leadership role with OneCoin, was arrested in 2019 and subsequently pleaded guilty to multiple felonies that same year.
Investigators describe the large-scale fraud as similar to an international pyramid scheme. Ignatova allegedly made false statements to solicit investments. Victims would then send cash to OneCoin accounts in order to buy the coin.
In 2019, the FBI’s then Assistant Director-in-Charge William Sweeney Jr. said OneCoin “offered investors no method of tracing their money, and it could not be used to purchase anything. In fact, the only ones who stood to benefit from its existence were its founders and co-conspirators.”
At the height of OneCoin’s popularity in 2016, Ignatova took the stage at England’s Wembley Arena in a ballgown to tout a coin that she said would eclipse bitcoin. Igantova was also known for throwing lavish parties in cities around the world.
The FBI asks that anyone with information about her whereabouts contact the bureau at tips.fbi.gov.
Elon Musk’s fortune plunged almost $62 billion. Jeff Bezos saw his wealth tumble by about $63 billion. Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth was slashed by more than half. All told, the world’s 500 richest people lost $1.4 trillion in the first half of 2022, a dizzying decline that marks the steepest six-month drop ever for the global billionaire class.
Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.
Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Euro zone inflation hits record 8.6% as the European Central Bank prepares for its first rate hike in 11 years
Published Fri, Jul 1 2022 5:03 AM EDT
Euro zone inflation reached a new record high in June just ahead of the European Central Bank’s first rate increase in 11 years.
Headline inflation came in at 8.6% (year-on-year) for last month, according to preliminary figures from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat released Friday. That beat a prediction of 8.4% in a Reuters poll of economists. The rate had reached 8.1% in May which means the cost of living is continuing to surge across the euro zone nations.
Germany surprised many earlier this week when it reported a drop of 0.5 percentage points in inflation month-on-month. Experts said this was due to new government subsidies to ease the impact of higher energy prices and it was not yet the end of surging inflation rates.
But both France and Spain experienced new inflation records in June with the latter surpassing the 10% threshold for the first time since 1985, according to Reuters.
ECB action
The ECB, which has vowed to tackle the surge in prices, is due to meet in late July to announce it’s increasing rates. The central bank has said it will hike again in September, meaning its main interest rate could return to positive territory this year — the ECB has had negative rates since 2014.
Speaking earlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a hawkish tone.
“If the inflation outlook does not improve, we will have sufficient information to move faster,” Lagarde told an audience in Sintra, Portugal, about the period after that September hike.
However, there are growing questions about the future of monetary policy in the euro zone amid fears of a recession in the coming months. If the central bank were to move quickly in hiking rates, this could hamper economic growth even further at a time when a slowdown is already underway.
More
Asia's factories feeble despite China bounce, feeds global recession fears
July 1, 2022 6:42 AM GMT+1
TOKYO, July 1 (Reuters) - Asia's manufacturing activity stalled in June as many companies were hit by supply disruptions caused by China's strict COVID-19 lockdowns, while sharp economic slowdown risks in Europe and the United States reinforced fears of a global recession.
A string of surveys on Friday showed China's factory activity bouncing solidly in June though a slowdown in Japan and South Korea, as well as a contraction in Taiwan, highlighted the strain from supply disruptions, rising costs and persistent material shortages.
China's manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest in 13 months in June, a private survey showed, as the lifting of COVID lockdowns sent factories racing to meet solid demand. read more
The roll-backs of China's lockdowns could ease supply chain snags, and allow automakers and other manufacturers to resume operations after suffering severe disruptions.
Some analysts, however, warn of fresh headwinds such as growing market fears that aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes to tamp down soaring inflation will push the country into recession, and weigh on overall global demand.
Policy tightening across many other economies amid red-hot consumer price pressures have stoked fears of a sharp global economic downturn and shaken financial markets in recent months.
"There's hope that China's economy will pick up after a period of some weakness. But now there's a risk of slowdown in the U.S. and European economies," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Japan's Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
"It will be a tug-of-war between the two, though there's a lot of uncertainty over the global economic outlook."
The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 52.7 in June from 53.3 in the previous month, staying above the 50-mark separating contraction from expansion. read more
South Korea's S&P Global PMI also fell to 51.3 in June from 51.8 in May, dropping for a second month due to the drag from supply constraints and a truckers' strike in June.
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Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
The Secrets of Covid ‘Brain Fog’ Are Starting to Lift
Jul 1, 2022 7:00 AM
Scientists are getting closer to understanding the neurology behind the memory problems and cognitive fuzziness that an infection can trigger.
Allison Guy was having a great start to 2021. Her health was the best it had ever been. She loved her job and the people she worked with as a communications manager for a conservation nonprofit. She could get up early in the mornings to work on creative projects. Things were looking “really, really good,” she says—until she got Covid-19.
While the initial infection was not fun, what followed was worse. Four weeks later, when Guy had recovered enough to go back to work full-time, she woke up one day with an overwhelming fatigue that just never went away. It was accompanied by a loss of mental sharpness, part of a suite of sometimes hard-to-pin-down symptoms that are often referred to as Covid-19 “brain fog,” a general term for sluggish or fuzzy thinking. “I spent most of 2021 making decisions like: Is this the day where I get a shower, or I go up and microwave myself a frozen dinner?” Guy recalls. The high-level writing required for her job was out of the question. Living with those symptoms was, in her words, “hell on earth.”
Many of these hard-to-define Covid-19 symptoms can persist over time—weeks, months, years. Now, new research in the journal Cell is shedding some light on the biological mechanisms of how Covid-19 affects the brain. Led by researchers Michelle Monje and Akiko Iwasaki, of Stanford and Yale Universities respectively, scientists determined that in mice with mild Covid-19 infections, the virus disrupted the normal activity of several brain cell populations and left behind signs of inflammation. They believe that these findings may help explain some of the cognitive disruption experienced by Covid-19 survivors and provide potential pathways for therapies.
More
World Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Graphene-like structure created from a fullerene
VICTORIA ATKINSON30 JUNE 2022
A single-layer carbon allotrope has been prepared from a fullerene, the first time that a two-dimensional material has been constructed from nanostructures rather than atoms.
2D materials like graphene possess unique electronic and optical properties which arise from their repeating conjugated-carbon structure. This bonding pattern can be altered to tune physical characteristics such as the bandgap, a property which determines whether the material is metallic, semi-conducting or insulating. Previously, research has focused on creating these systems from single atoms, but nanoclusters such as fullerene can theoretically bond in a similar manner to form more complex monolayers with different properties.
A team in China has now prepared the first 2D carbon material from a fullerene. C60 units underwent polymerisation in the presence of magnesium to form covalently bonded fullerene layers, separated by magnesium ions. Strong interlayer magnesium–carbon bonds supported this bulk structure but prevented the removal of individual fullerene layers.
The team therefore applied an organic cation slicing strategy, mixing the bulk crystal with tetrabutylammonium salicylate to isolate the component monolayers. The magnesium cations strongly coordinated with the oxygen-containing salicylate anions, essentially exchanging with the tetrabutylammonium ions to form a new intercalated fullerene structure. These bulkier cations increased the interlayer distance, meaning that gentle shaking could separate the individual fullerene sheets.
Graphene-like structure created from a fullerene | Research | Chemistry World
This weekend’s music diversion. More of the “Red Priest” again. Approx. 10 minutes.
Vivaldi - Concerto for violin, organ and strings in F major (RV 542); Anton Hansch
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1NKnfYAHfE
This weekend’s chess update. Approx. 13 minutes.
"Unyielding in Severity" || Rapport vs Ding || FIDE Candidates (2022) R10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeX8dYyIGJc
This week’s maths update. Approx.13 minutes.
Times Tables, Mandelbrot and the Heart of Mathematics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhbuKbxJsk8
Finally, more on the origins of fruits. Approx. 13 minutes.
The Geography of Fruits PART 2
(2) The Geography of Fruits PART 2 - YouTube
By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland?
Adam Smith, The Wealth Of Nations, 1776.
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