August 2020 v August 1914.

 Baltic Dry Index. 1945 -62  Brent Crude 107.04

Spot Gold 1761         US 2 Year Yield 2.85 -0.11

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 29/07/22 World 579,780,429

Deaths 6,414,615

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer.

Don’t look now, but the USA has fallen into the recession that isn’t. 

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting GDP fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the April-to-June quarter, according to the advance estimate. GDP slipped 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

Of course, GDP falling for two consecutive quarters doesn’t automatically make it a recession in the USA, a bunch of elderly economic academics in America get to pontificate on recession starts and endings.

Quite often by the time they declare a US recession started, the USA is well on its way out of recession, but they are only economists after all. Their guess is about as good as anyone else’s.

Still, despite the US stock casinos soaring on the bad news, the US bond yields dropped in anticipation that the recession is real and pretty soon the US central bank will blink and stop raising interest rates into the new arriving recession.

So are recessions really good for stocks? I think we all know the answer to that, although right now in the summer of 2020 we seem to be doing a good modern version of 1914, but hopefully with a different August ending.

 

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng drops around 2% with tech stocks under pressure

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 28 2022 7:58 PM EDT UPDATED 48 MIN AGO

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell around 2% on Friday as tech stocks came under pressure.

The benchmark index slipped 2.16%, while the Hang Seng Tech index dropped around 4%.

Hang Seng heavyweights Alibaba and Meituan dropped more than 5% each. Alibaba is on track for a third straight session of losses following news that several Ant Group executives have stepped down as Alibaba partners.

Meituan shares plunged after reports that the company has been summoned by Hangzhou’s market regulator.

Real estate stocks in Hong Kong also fell Friday.

Chinese leaders on Thursday signaled Beijing is unlikely to try to boost the economy, and downplayed the country’s GDP target of “around 5.5%.”

“This hints that the government is not going to overly spend on infrastructure projects to achieve that target. Our view is that this is not such a bad thing,” ING said in a Friday note.

“This would give more room for the central government to solve the problem of uncompleted construction projects,” the authors added.

In mainland China, the  was 0.74% lower and the  dipped 1.04%.

Elsewhere, in Japan, the Nikkei 225 gained 0.32% while the Topix index was about flat.

The country’s industrial output jumped 8.9% in June from the previous month, the ministry of economy, trade and industry said Friday. The print surprised to the upside after falling in May.

South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.85% and the Kosdaq advanced 0.9%.

The S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was up 0.78%.

----Major U.S. indexes rallied at least 1% each overnight.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 332.04 points, or 1%, to 32,529.63. The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 4,072.43, and the Nasdaq Composite added nearly 1.1% to 12,162.59.

U.S. futures rose further after tech companies like Apple and Amazon reported strong earnings.

Those moves came despite the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reporting GDP fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the April-to-June quarter, according to the advance estimate. GDP slipped 1.6% in the first quarter of the year.

While that is the second-straight negative GDP report, official declarations on whether the U.S. is in a recession come from the National Bureau of Economic Research. That determination could take months or even longer.

More

Asia Markets: Hong Kong tech stocks drop, Asia markets (cnbc.com)

China signals no big stimulus is coming, while Covid controls remain

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 28 2022 9:10 AM EDT

BEIJING — China’s top leaders signaled Thursday that no big stimulus for economic growth was

on the way, and downplayed the necessity of achieving the “around 5.5%” 

GDP target.

In the second half of the year, authorities said they would stabilize 

employment and prices, according to a state media readout of the leaders’ meeting 

Thursday. Chinese President Xi Jinping headed the economic meeting, held regularly 

with China’s leadership, known as the Politburo.

That high-level mention of stabilizing prices indicates there won’t likely be any 

additional expansionary policies, Wang Jun, a director at the China Chief 

Economist Forum, said in a phone interview. He noted high inflation overseas, 

and expected China would face greater inflationary pressure in the coming months.

One of the largest stimulus announcements came in late May when China’s 

State Council, the country’s top executive body, announced 

33 economic support measures ranging from tax refunds to infrastructure 

investment.

While Wang expected continued use of credit and local government 

bonds to support the economy, he said authorities would not likely 

“force” 5.5% growth. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his 

Mandarin-language remarks.

More

China signals no big stimulus is coming, while Covid controls remain (cnbc.com)

 

IMF warns rising debt in Asia puts region at risk

PUBLISHED WED, JUL 27 2022 11:06 PM EDT

Rising debt levels driven by inflation and tightening financial conditions across 

Asia are cause for concern, according to the International Monetary Fund’s

 Krishna Srinivasan.

“If you look at debt for the region, if you look at Asia’s share of total debt, 

aggregate debt, that’s gone up quite sharply,” Srinivasan, the director of the Asia 

and Pacific Department at the IMF, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Wednesday.

He said debt in the region has risen from 25% before the pandemic to 38% now.

Srinivasan said countries at risk include Laos, Mongolia, Maldives 

and Papua New Guinea, noting Sri Lanka has already defaulted on 

its debt repayments.

Inflation in Laos hit 23.6% in June. The Asian Development Bank 

estimates Mongolia’s  annual inflation will hit 12.4% in 2022. Maldives has 

been struggling with high debt for years. 

While the Maldives’ debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen over the past two years, 

it is still high at about 100% of GDP.

“So there are many countries in the region which are facing high debt numbers. 

And some of these countries are in debt distress territory. And so that’s 

something which we  have to watch out for,” Srinivasan said.

In its global economic outlook released Tuesday, the 

IMF forecast a sharp slowdown in global 

growth from 6.1% last year to 3.2% this year, predicting growth in both 

China and India will be hit.

More

Rising debt in Asia puts region at risk, says IMF expert (cnbc.com)

The old believe everything, the middle-aged suspect everything, the young [and the NBER] know everything.

With apologies to Oscar Wilde.

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 28 2022 8:30 AM EDT

The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, 

hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis 

reported Thursday.

Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain 

pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline 

in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%.

Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions

 and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question 

for months if not longer.

But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view 

of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless 

of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy 

and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period.

GDP Q2: (cnbc.com)

Trucking CEOs expect higher prices, potential disruptions in second half of the year

PUBLISHED THU, JUL 28 2022 6:28 PM EDT

U.S. trucking CEOs expect to maintain pricing power even with volumes softening in the second half of 2022 as retailers, manufacturers and consumers adjust to disruptions from Covid lockdowns, the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation.

A recent survey of customers by SAIA, a trucker for Starbucks, Home Depot and Lowe’s, found the majority of companies are still working to figure out their next step and what the “new normal” is for their business, according to CEO Fritz Holzgrefe.

“They were talking a lot about continuing to rebuild inventory positions, straightening out their supply chains through the balance of the year, even into the first part of next year,” Holzgrefe told CNBC. “Maybe things have slowed a bit, but customers are still continuing to re-sort their supply chain position to more effectively to achieve their goals in their respective businesses.”

The supply chain is improving and past the worst, according to Derek Leathers, CEO of Werner Enterprise, which moves freight for Amazon, Walmart and Target. But, he warned, headwinds for truckers will keep rates well above prepandemic levels for the rest of 2022.

“You’ll see rates hold up for the remainder of the year. Our cost increases are real. Our customers understand that,” Leathers said. “We’re talking large scale successful winning brands like [Amazon and Walmart] and many others that know the reliance on their carrier is a competitive advantage. They want good quality transportation, on time, every time safely. To do that they work with large well capitalized carriers.” 

----Spot trucking saw a boom at the height of the pandemic as companies adjusted to snarled supply chains and were willing to pay historic rates to transport goods during the e-commerce boom. However, the majority of trucking is still done through contracts with carriers and their customers like large retailers.

The leading companies in the three major segments of trucking make the majority of revenue from contracts — Knight Swift (full truckload), FedEx (less than truckload) and JB Hunt (container shipping) — have reported double-digit rate increases in their most recent earnings.

“We believe the contract rates will hold up. We believe contract rates are going to be at a place that is going to allow trucking companies to be remarkably profitable.” Deustche Bank transportation analyst Amit Mehrotra told CNBC.

More

Trucking CEOs expect high prices, demand in second half of 2022 (cnbc.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

The CDC ended its COVID-19 program for cruise ships. What does that mean for travelers?

Thu, July 28, 2022 at 8:04 PM

After the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships last week, cruise lines have announced changes to their health and safety protocols.

The CDC issued new COVID-19 guidance for cruise ships on July 20, with updated health and safety recommendations. The agency said cruise lines should consider mandating viral tests for travelers close to departure, and "highly" recommended testing within one day of embarkation.

However, some lines have dropped those rules. Here's what passengers can expect.

Royal Caribbean Group will drop its testing requirement for vaccinated passengers on some voyages, the company said Thursday. Beginning on August 8, testing will be only be required for vaccinated guests on sailings that are six or more nights, and will be required for unvaccinated guests on all trips according to a news release.

President and CEO Jason Liberty told USA TODAY that "sometime in the next 30 to 45 days" the company also expects to drop the testing rule for vaccinated passengers on longer voyages, where local requirements allow.

"We're highly focused on making sure that our guests and our crew are safe and healthy at all times," he said, and noted that the company will continue to operate "highly vaccinated" sailings.

Liberty added that Royal Caribbean Group will monitor the situation and "modify protocols as needed."

More

The CDC ended its COVID-19 program for cruise ships. What does that mean for travelers? (yahoo.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Something different again today, earthquake predicting.

Researchers discover way to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy

By studying changes in the Earth's ionosphere, an Israeli research team discovered a method to predict earthquakes 48 hours ahead with 80% accuracy.

 Published: JULY 25, 2022 04:59  Updated: JULY 26, 2022 10:33

Israeli researchers have discovered a method to predict earthquakes 48 hours ahead with 80% accuracy, as detailed in a peer-reviewed study published in the scientific journal Remote Sensing in May.

How did they work it out?

By studying changes in the Earth's ionosphere, the sliver of atmosphere which meets the vacuum of space, the Ariel University and Center for Research & Development Eastern Branch research team was able to evaluate potential precursors to several major earthquakes that occurred in the past 20 years.

The researchers defined major earthquakes as those surpassing Mw 6 on the Moment magnitude scale, which measures an earthquake's magnitude based on its seismic movement.

The method developed by the team saw them implement a machine learning support vector machine (SVM) technique, applied with GPS map data of ionospheric total electron content to calculate its electron charge density.

Through this technique, they managed to find that an earthquake can be accurately predicted with 80% accuracy.

Moreover, the researchers were also able to accurately predict when an earthquake will not occur in a specified area with 85.7% accuracy.

More

Researchers discover way to predict earthquakes with 80% accuracy - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

Another weekend and still the proxy war with Russia goes on with no one anywhere trying to end it. Have a great weekend everyone before this useless war widens.

Some cause happiness wherever they go; others whenever they go.

Oscar Wilde.