Baltic Dry Index. 2146 +28 Brent Crude 103.20
Spot Gold 1728 US
2 Year Yield 2.98 -0.12
There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.
Janet Yellen.
In the stock casinos, yet more whiplash action.
But Friday’s big news was in commodities, where a newly announced, Turkey brokered, UN deal between Russia and Ukraine will free up grain, sunflower oil, and fertilizer exports from Russia and Ukraine.
So far so good and the price of wheat in Chicago immediately collapsed to 7.59 dollars a bushel, down from its all time high of 12.94 a bushel in early March.
Of course, now comes the hard part, making the deal work and getting shippers and insurers to actually send ships and crews into a war zone to physically start resuming exports.
No end of parties, Russia, Ukraine, the CIA, MI6, ISIS, Mossad, among others, have the ability to engage in “dirty tricks.”
But hopefully, if this works, much of the world’s poorest will get a break from rising food poverty, and just possibly, the saner heads in the Anglo-American War Party, and in Kiev and Moscow, will use this as a stepping stone to end the useless and unnecessary war in the Ukraine.
The S&P 500 fell nearly 1% on Friday, but
finished the week higher, as investors digested disappointing results from Snap that sent
social media shares reeling.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost 137.61 points, or 0.43%, to 31,899.29. The S&P 500 declined 0.93% to
3,961.63, while the Nasdaq Composite traded 1.87% lower to 11,834.11.
Those losses cut into weekly gains
for all three major averages, with the Dow closing out the week nearly 2%
higher. The S&P 500 advanced about 2.6%, and the Nasdaq capped the week up
3.3%.
An earnings miss from Snap, which sent shares
tumbling about 39.1%, halted this week’s Nasdaq rally. Traders, eyeing some
better-than-expected results from tech companies, had deliberated whether
markets had finally found a bottom.
“Snap has managed to snap the uptrend in the Nasdaq
by reporting disappointing earnings, which has created a cascading effect on
the S&P,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
“This is just an example of the volatility that
investors should expect as earnings are reported, and, therefore, could cause
fluctuations in prices in response to better than or worse than results,”
Stovall added.
The results from the Snapchat parent were followed
by a slew
of analyst downgrades on the stock. Snap’s quarterly report
also weighed on other social media and tech stocks, which investors feared
could face slowing online advertising sales.
Shares of Meta Platforms and Pinterest
fell about 7.6% and 13.5%, respectively, while Alphabet lost 5.6%.
More
S&P
500 sheds nearly 1% Friday on Snap-led tech sell-off, but finishes higher on
week (cnbc.com)
Russia and Ukraine sign UN-backed deal to resume grain
exports via the Black Sea
Russia and Ukraine on Friday signed a U.N.-backed
deal to resume exports of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.
The agreement, which will be implemented in the
next few weeks, was signed in the Turkish city of Istanbul and was brokered by
the government in Ankara.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was in
attendance along with United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russian and Ukrainian officials sat at
separate tables to sign the documents.
Millions of tons of wheat have been stuck in the
war-torn nation. Grain exporters in Ukrainian port cities like Odesa have been
unable to ship their goods due to the conflict, fueling a global shortage of
the commodity and pushing up food prices.
Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest wheat
exporters, and Russian forces have been blocking the Black Sea, where the grain
silos at key Ukrainian ports are located.
The deal is significant for global food supplies, but also as it’s the first major agreement between the two sides since Moscow launched it’s unprovoked onslaught on Feb. 24.
While the details of the deal are currently
unknown, it was expected to allow Ukrainian vessels to guide ships through
mined waters, with a localized truce in place so Russia does not attack.
Turkish officials are also expected to inspect the shipments to rule out any
weapons smuggling.
International onlookers are cautious on the deal
and Russia will be closely watched to make sure it upholds its side of the
agreement. Moscow, which blames Ukraine for laying the mines, is also expected
to restart its own grain exports in the Black Sea under the agreement.
----Ukraine is
one of the world’s top agricultural producers and exporters. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, it is
normally the world’s top producer of sunflower meal, oil and seed. it’s also
the world’s top exporter of sunflower meal and oil, and the world’s
seventh-largest wheat producer.
Top destinations for wheat exports
include Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
December futures prices for wheat
on the Paris exchange slipped by around 5% after the deal was announced.
Russia and Ukraine sign deal to resume grain exports in Black Sea (cnbc.com)
Three
economists [Yellen, Bernanke and Greenspan,] go hunting and come across a deer.
The first economist aims and fires but the
bullets misses and goes a little to the left. The second economist aims and
fires but the bullet misses and goes a little to the right.
The third economist starts jumping up and down
and exclaims “yahoo!!! We got it!!!”
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Q: What are Mcdonald's employees now
asking customers?
A: Can you afford fries with that?
Germany heads for recession as Putin’s gas threat spooks businesses
- live updates
James Warrington 22 July 2022
Germany’s economy is on course to shrink for
the first time this year after new figures showed a surprise slump in activity
in July.
S&P Global’s Composite PMI dropped to 48.0 this
month, falling below the no-change mark of 50 for the first time since December
and marking the worst performance in more than two years.
Both the services and manufacturing sectors posted
a decline, but goods producers suffered the more acute slump as output dropped
by the greatest degree since May 2020.
The figures reflect widespread staff shortages,
supply chain troubles and surging costs that have brought Germany’s
post-pandemic recovery crashing to a halt.
Business expectations in Europe’s largest economy
have now slumped to their lowest levels in two years as investors brace for a
contraction.
Germany’s heavy exposure to Russian gas imports is
adding to the concern, with economists warning a cut-off in supplies could
lead to blackouts and rationing and push the country into recession.
Economic activity across the wider eurozone also
contracted, with output and new orders both falling for the first times
since the lockdowns of early 2021.
Germany heads for
recession as Putin’s gas threat spooks businesses - live updates (msn.com)
Euro-Zone Activity Is Suddenly Shrinking in Recession Omen
Fri,
22 July 2022 at 10:33 am
Private-sector activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the
first time since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021, adding to signs that a
recession might be on the horizon.
A survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global dropped to a 17-month
low in July, dipping beneath the level that signals contraction. The downturn
was driven by worsening output among manufacturers and a near-stalling of
service-sector growth. Economists had expected a mild expansion.
A steep loss of new orders, falling backlogs of work and gloomier
business expectations all point to the rate of decline gathering further
momentum,” said Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global. “Of greatest
concern is the plight of manufacturing, where producers are reporting that
weaker-than-expected sales have led to an unprecedented rise in unsold stock.”
The data underscores the vulnerability of the euro-zone economy that is
now facing abrupt stimulus withdrawal after the European Central Bank’s
half-point interest-rate increase, the first hike in more than a decade.
“We understand that these decisions are expected to mean slower economic
growth due to more expensive loans and, unfortunately, uncreated and sometimes
lost jobs,” ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said in a blog post
Friday. “But the consequences of persistently too-fast price increases would be
even worse.”
Signs of slowing growth will reinforce the growing chorus of economists
predicting a recession in the 19-member currency bloc later this year. Energy
supplies are a major worry as Russia reduces natural gas flows in response to
Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.
More
Euro-Zone Activity
Is Suddenly Shrinking in Recession Omen (yahoo.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
New Zealand COVID-19 death rate at
record levels
By Lucy Craymer 22 July 2022
WELLINGTON (Reuters) - New Zealanders are dying from COVID-19 at record
rates as the country battles a new wave of the Omicron strain that is
particularly affecting the older population.
Deaths from the virus reached 151 in the seven days to July 16, compared
with 115 in the worst week of the previous wave, in March, according to Health
Ministry data. In the latest 24 hours, 26 people died from COVID, all aged over
60, the ministry said in a statement on Friday.
The Omicron BA.5 sub-variant is driving the current wave in New Zealand,
which has 5.1 million people. There have been 64,780 active cases in the past
seven days, although authorities say many infections are unreported.
Once regarded as a model for preventing COVID infection, New Zealand's
swift response to the pandemic and its geographic isolation kept it largely
free from the virus until the end of last year.
The government dropped its
zero-COVID policy this year once the population was largely vaccinated. Since
then the virus has been allowed to spread.
Emergency departments,
general practices and medical centres are under pressure. However, Health
Ministry data shows hospitalisation levels remain below those seen during the
March peak.
The
government is resisting pressure from some doctors to reinstate curbs on public
gatherings or mandate the wearing of masks at schools.
However, Education Ministry
chief Iona Holsted said on Thursday the ministry had advised schools to enforce
the wearing of masks as much as practicable when children returned from
holidays next week.
"We understand that
implementing mask policies can be a challenge but ask that you take action to
strengthen your mask wearing policy as soon as possible," she said.
New Zealand
COVID-19 death rate at record levels (msn.com)
World
Health Organization - Landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines. https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
NY
Times Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory
Focus COVID-19 vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some more useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
The Spectator
Covid-19 data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
World's
first laser-controlled drone easily evades countermeasures
Loz Blain July 21, 2022
Counter-drone
systems typically attack a UAV's radio control or GPS systems, disabling pilot
control as well as pre-programmed missions. But British defense tech company QinetiQ
has now demonstrated a laser-controlled drone these systems can't stop.
The demo,
claimed as a world-first, showcased the company's new two-way Free Space
Optical Communications (FSOC) system, designed to complement or replace radio
control for military missions in areas where the enemy might have RF-blocking
or detection gear.
The system appears to require line of sight for its
"very high-bandwidth" ground station to drone link – that'll restrict
its applicability. But the equipment on the ground looks pretty compact, and on
top of skipping happily through RF jammers, the system also makes it virtually
impossible to intercept or even detect the data stream.
One does wonder how well it'll fare through smoke,
dust or other air quality issues – and indeed these drones will still be easily
stopped by nets, shotgun rounds or throwing fridges at them. But QinetiQ sees
the FSOC system as a way to "negate the considerable investment that
adversaries may have made in denying the RF spectrum."
QinetiQ showed off the laser
system's capabilities as part of the UK Ministry of Defence's DSTL Air Command
and Control, Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance and
Interoperability project.
Source: QinetiQ
World's first
laser-controlled drone easily evades countermeasures (newatlas.com)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Italy’s
greatly underrated Mr. Caldara again. Approx. 15 minutes.
A.
CALDARA: Sinfonia in C major, La Serenissima
A. CALDARA: Sinfonia in C major, La Serenissima - YouTube
This
weekend’s chess update. Approx. 8 minutes.
World
Champion Neutralized || Carlsen vs Firouzja || Croatia GCT (2022)
World Champion Neutralized || Carlsen vs Firouzja || Croatia GCT (2022) - YouTube
This
week’s maths update. Approx. 14 minutes.
The
Fourier Series and Fourier Transform Demystified
The Fourier Series and Fourier Transform Demystified - YouTube
Since the global financial crisis and recession of 2007-2009, criticism of the economics profession has intensified. The failure of all but a few professional economists to forecast the episode - the aftereffects of which still linger - has led many to question whether the economics profession contributes anything significant to society.
Robert J. Shiller.
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