Tuesday 26 July 2022

Stocks, Chasing Nickels.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2114 -32   Brent Crude 106.46

Spot Gold 1722         US 2 Year Yield 3.00 +0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 26/07/22 World 576,219,219

Deaths 6,405,237

A good politician is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.

H. L. Mencken. The “Sage of Baltimore”.

Day one of the US central bank meetings and the stock casinos are skittish. The perma-bulls and stock promoters are busy talking up earnings as a reason to buy up more stocks.

The bears point out that earnings are history reflecting conditions past not what is to come.

On what is to come, seems likely to be recessions for the USA and Germany and that means recession for the rest of the EUSSR and the UK.

Toss into the mix Russia reducing its gas supply to Germany down to just 20 percent of Nord Stream One capacity from tomorrow for “temporary” repairs and I think most stocks are drinking in the last chance saloon.

Getting out early in a bear market always beats getting carried out last.

Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller is for mugs.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 1% in mixed Asia trade; South Korea GDP beats estimates

SINGAPORE — Hong Kong stocks rose more than 1% in mixed Asia trade on Tuesday as South Korea’s gross domestic product beat estimates.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced 1.48%, with heavyweight Alibaba jumping 6.02% after the company said in a press statement that it will be applying for a primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, where its shares are already listed.

If completed, the company will become a dual-primary listed company in Hong Kong and New York. That’s expected to happen before the end of 2022.

The Hang Seng Tech index rose 1.5%.

Mainland China stocks also climbed. The Shanghai Composite was 0.81% higher, while the Shenzhen Component rose 1.07%.

South Korea’s economy grew 0.7% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter of 2022, according to estimates released by the Bank of Korea.

That compared to 0.4% growth expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. The country’s GDP grew 0.6% in the January to March quarter.

“This morning’s print actually gives the [Bank of Korea] further room to pursue their priority in policy to tame inflation and inflation expectations before worrying about growth,” said Kathleen Oh, an economist at Bank of America Securities, on Tuesday.

The Kospi in South Korea recovered from losses to rise 0.24%, while the Kosdaq slipped 0.14%.

Elsewhere in the region, the S&P/ASX 200 in Australia was 0.33% higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was about flat, while the Topix index inched up 0.15%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.38%.

----Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 gained 0.1% to close at 3,966.84. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 90.75 points, or 0.3%, to 31,990.04. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.4% to 11,782.67.

More                                                                           

Asia markets: South Korea GDP, central bank, currencies, oil (cnbc.com)

The numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession

The White House is sure the economy is not in a recession nor headed for one. Wall Street is pretty sure there is no recession now, but isn’t as positive about what’s ahead.

Looking at the data, the picture is indeed nuanced. Nothing right now is screaming recession, though there is plenty of chatter. The jobs market is still pretty good, manufacturing is weakening but still expanding, and consumers still seem fairly flush with cash, if somewhat less willing to part with it these days.

So with second-quarter GDP data due out Thursday, the question of whether the economy is merely in a natural slowdown after a robust year in 2021 or in a steeper downturn that could have extended repercussions, will be on everyone’s mind. 

“This is not an economy that’s in recession, but we’re in a period of transition in which growth is slowing,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “A recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We just don’t have that.”

On Monday, Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council during the Trump administration, pushed back on that view, and said the White House was making a mistake by not owning up to the realities of the moment.

“We’re ... kind of in recession, right? So it’s a difficult time,” Hassett, who is now a distinguished senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin during a live “Squawk Box” interview.

“In this case, if I were in the White House I would not be out there sort of denying it’s a recession,” he added.

If nothing else, the economy stands at least a fair a chance of hitting the rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP readings. The first quarter saw a gross domestic product decline of 1.6% and an Atlanta Federal Reserve gauge is indicating the second quarter is on pace to hit the same number.

more

The numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession (cnbc.com)

Germany on brink of recession as business morale sinks to two-year low 

James Warrington   July 25 2022

German business confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic amid fears a cut-off in Russian gas supplies could push Europe’s largest economy into a downturn.

The Ifo Institute’s gauge of expectations fell to 80.3 in July from 85.8 in June – a much deeper decline than forecast. An index of current conditions also dropped.

Clemens Fuest, Ifo President, said: “Germany is on the brink of a recession. High energy prices and the threat of gas shortages are weighing on the economy. Companies are expecting significantly worse business activity in the coming months.” 

The report reflects mounting gloom in Germany, which is also grappling with rampant inflation and supply chain troubles exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

A gauge of private-sector activity by S&P Global last week showed the economy began contracting in July for the first time this year.

Germany on brink of recession as business morale sinks to two-year low - live updates (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Inflation Will Wreak Havoc On The Working Class

Jack Kelly  Jul 24, 2022,09:00am EDT

Inflation Leads To A Widening Of The Wealth Gap

The impact of inflation isn’t felt equally by all Americans. The working class is at risk. They are at the mercy of rapidly rising costs. This includes housing, food, gas, cars, trucks, and other daily necessities.

Unlike the upper middle class and wealthy, the less fortunate Americans don’t possess assets that can appreciate in value, such as real estate, stocks and other investments. Inflation will add to the already considerable wealth gap in our nation.

The savings of the working class are eaten away by the effects of inflation. Wealthy families, by comparison, who have borrowed heavily for their homes, investments and business ventures may pay back the loans with cheaper money due to the corrosive effects of inflation.

Senior citizens on a tight budget who scrimped and saved over the years are punished for their fiscal sobriety. Inflation harms the value of money sitting in a bank account. They are earning a minuscule interest rate, and the rapid rise in inflation further devalues their savings. Purchasing power is reduced, and the dollar doesn’t go as far as it used only six months ago.

Local bodegas tend to charge larger prices on goods as they don’t have the leverage with suppliers like the big chains and have a captive market. They also offer less variety, leaning towards inexpensive junk food over more expensive fruits and vegetables. This doesn’t help the health of the local community. Lower-income families are often forced to pay higher prices as they don’t or can’t spend the money on gas to travel to big box stores and buy bulk household products. Comparatively, wealthier consumers are financially capable of stocking up on necessities when they are on sale. They can also afford to shop at places such as Whole Foods, which offers a broader variety of healthy choices.

As this cohort depends on paycheck-to-paycheck, inflation serves as another pernicious tax. After factoring in the over 9% inflation rate, their wages don’t leave them with much disposable income.

More

Inflation Will Wreak Havoc On The Working Class (forbes.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

How Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now?

Robert Pearl, M.D.  Jul 25, 2022,04:00am EDT

When doctors go to the doctor, they usually spend the first few minutes chatting about their personal lives and about healthcare in general. Recently, a visit to my ophthalmologist’s office led to an unexpected yet familiar conversation about second Covid-19 boosters.

The physician wasn’t sure whether he should get a fourth dose now or wait. He had read the CDC’s original guidance in March, the updated guidance in May and the newest guidance from June, and still he was perplexed. He wondered what I thought.

The more we talked, the more I understood what he was really asking me: Am I safe or am I in danger? That’s the root of most Covid-19 questions I receive from people who write in to my podcast Coronavirus: The Truth. Americans want to know how to strike a safe balance between protecting themselves and their loved ones and trying to enjoy (and get on with) their lives.

For anyone feeling perplexed, here are five of the most common questions I’ve received via my podcast of late, along with answers containing relevant facts.

1. What are my chances of dying from Covid-19?

BA.5 is now the dominant Omicron subvariant in the United States, and experts are calling it the worst mutation yet because it’s “spreading like wildfire.” Indeed, Omicron is driving up cases. But are we under- or over-estimating the threat?

There are two ways to approach the answer. The first is to ask: How likely am I to die if I get sick?

Nationally, Omicron leads to 1 death per 2,300 cases or a 0.04% case fatality rate. (Math: Divide 300 reported daily deaths by 100,000 reported case per day, but then multiply by seven because the Institute for Health Metrics and other leading research groups estimate daily infections to be at least seven times greater than reported.)

Using this yardstick, Omicron is less likely to kill you than the flu, which has a case fatality rate of roughly 0.1%.

More

How Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now? (forbes.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New research furthers understanding of the electronic structure of graphite

Date:  July 19, 2022

Source:  National Institutes of Natural Sciences

Summary:  Graphite is an incredibly important, versatile mineral, with uses spanning industries. Graphite is an essential component of many batteries, including lithium-ion batteries, and demand is only increasing as new technology is developed. Surprisingly, no spectroscopic studies have so far accurately measured the electronic states of the surface and the edge of graphite from a microscopic point of view. Indeed, the improvement in battery performance depends largely on the control of the characteristics of the graphite at the tip.

Graphite is an incredibly important, versatile mineral, with uses spanning industries. Because graphite can easily conduct electricity and withstand high temperatures, it is especially important for electronics. Graphite is an essential component of many batteries, including lithium-ion batteries, and demand is only increasing as new technology is developed. For example, solar power and electronic vehicles will require increased production of the batteries and the need for graphite. Even though graphite has been thoroughly researched for decades, there is still more for researchers to uncover. Surprisingly, no spectroscopic studies have so far accurately measured the electronic states of the surface and the edge of graphite from a microscopic point of view. This is important because the improvement in battery performance depends largely on the control of the characteristics of the graphite at the tip.

In a paper published on 21 June 2022 in Physical Review B, researchers have detailed new observations of the surface state of graphite using a newly developed photoelectron spectroscopy machine combined with electron microscope.

"In this study, we report the microscopicobservation of three-fold symmetric graphite surface states coupled with bulk kdispersed π bands. The finding highlights the relevance of considering surface effects in bulk intrinsic electronic state measurements," said Fumihiko Matsui, a professor at Institute for Molecular Science in Okazaki, Japan. "The question we address is: how accurate can we measure the intrinsic bulk kz dispersion?"

More

New research furthers understanding of the electronic structure of graphite -- ScienceDaily

If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.

H. L. Mencken. The “Sage of Baltimore”.

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