Baltic Dry Index. 2114 -32 Brent Crude 106.46
Spot Gold 1722 US 2 Year Yield 3.00 +0.02
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 26/07/22 World 576,219,219
Deaths 6,405,237
A good politician
is quite as unthinkable as an honest burglar.
H. L. Mencken. The “Sage of Baltimore”.
Day one of the US central bank meetings and the stock casinos are skittish. The perma-bulls and stock promoters are busy talking up earnings as a reason to buy up more stocks.
The bears point out that earnings are history reflecting conditions past not what is to come.
On what is to come, seems likely to be recessions for the USA and Germany and that means recession for the rest of the EUSSR and the UK.
Toss into the mix Russia reducing its gas supply to Germany down to just 20 percent of Nord Stream One capacity from tomorrow for “temporary” repairs and I think most stocks are drinking in the last chance saloon.
Getting out early in a bear market always beats getting carried out last.
Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller is for mugs.
Hong Kong’s Hang
Seng up 1% in mixed Asia trade; South Korea GDP beats estimates
SINGAPORE — Hong Kong stocks rose more than 1% in
mixed Asia trade on Tuesday as South Korea’s gross domestic product beat
estimates.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced
1.48%, with heavyweight Alibaba jumping 6.02% after the company said in a
press statement that it will be applying for a primary listing on the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange, where its shares are already listed.
If completed, the company will
become a dual-primary listed company in Hong Kong and New York. That’s expected
to happen before the end of 2022.
The Hang Seng Tech index rose 1.5%.
Mainland China
stocks also climbed. The Shanghai
Composite was 0.81% higher, while the Shenzhen Component rose
1.07%.
South Korea’s economy grew 0.7% in the second quarter compared
with the first quarter of 2022, according to estimates released by the Bank of
Korea.
That compared to
0.4% growth expected by analysts in a Reuters poll. The country’s GDP grew 0.6%
in the January to March quarter.
“This morning’s print actually gives the [Bank
of Korea] further room to pursue their priority in policy to tame inflation and
inflation expectations before worrying about growth,” said Kathleen Oh, an economist
at Bank of America Securities, on Tuesday.
The Kospi in South
Korea recovered from losses to rise 0.24%, while the Kosdaq slipped 0.14%.
Elsewhere in the
region, the S&P/ASX 200 in
Australia was 0.33% higher.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was
about flat, while the Topix index inched up 0.15%.
MSCI’s broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.38%.
----Overnight
in the U.S., the S&P 500 gained 0.1% to close at 3,966.84. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average advanced 90.75 points, or 0.3%, to 31,990.04. The tech-heavy
Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.4% to 11,782.67.
More
Asia
markets: South Korea GDP, central bank, currencies, oil (cnbc.com)
The numbers show
the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession
The White House is sure the economy is not in a recession nor headed for
one. Wall Street is pretty sure there is no recession now, but isn’t as
positive about what’s ahead.
Looking at the data, the picture is indeed
nuanced. Nothing right now is screaming recession, though there is plenty of
chatter. The jobs market is still pretty good, manufacturing is weakening but
still expanding, and consumers still seem fairly flush with cash, if somewhat
less willing to part with it these days.
So with second-quarter GDP data due out Thursday, the question of whether the economy is merely in a natural slowdown after a robust year in 2021 or in a steeper downturn that could have extended repercussions, will be on everyone’s mind.
“This is not an economy that’s in recession, but we’re in a period
of transition in which growth is slowing,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “A
recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the
economy. We just don’t have that.”
On Monday, Kevin Hassett, head of the National
Economic Council during the Trump administration, pushed back on that view, and
said the White House was making a mistake by not owning up to the realities of
the moment.
“We’re ... kind of
in recession, right? So it’s a difficult time,” Hassett, who is now a
distinguished senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, told CNBC’s Andrew Ross
Sorkin during a live “Squawk
Box” interview.
“In this case, if I were in the White House I would not be out there sort of denying it’s a recession,” he added.
If nothing else,
the economy stands at least a fair a chance of hitting the
rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters
with negative GDP readings. The first quarter saw a gross domestic product
decline of 1.6% and an Atlanta Federal Reserve gauge is indicating the second
quarter is on pace to hit the same number.
more
The
numbers show the U.S. economy is at least teetering on a recession (cnbc.com)
Germany
on brink of recession as business morale sinks to two-year low
James Warrington July
25 2022
German business confidence has
dropped to its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic amid fears a
cut-off in Russian gas supplies could push Europe’s largest economy into a
downturn.
The Ifo Institute’s gauge of
expectations fell to 80.3 in July from 85.8 in June – a much deeper decline than
forecast. An index of current conditions also dropped.
Clemens Fuest, Ifo President, said:
“Germany is on the brink of a recession. High energy prices and the threat of
gas shortages are weighing on the economy. Companies are expecting
significantly worse business activity in the coming months.”
The report reflects mounting gloom in
Germany, which is also grappling with rampant inflation and supply chain
troubles exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
A gauge of private-sector activity by
S&P Global last week showed the economy began contracting in July for the
first time this year.
Germany on brink
of recession as business morale sinks to two-year low - live updates (msn.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
Inflation
Will Wreak Havoc On The Working Class
Jack KellyJul 24, 2022,09:00am
EDT
Inflation
Leads To A Widening Of The Wealth Gap
The impact of inflation isn’t felt equally by all Americans. The working
class is at risk. They are at the mercy of rapidly rising costs. This includes
housing, food, gas, cars, trucks, and other daily necessities.
Unlike the upper
middle class and wealthy, the less fortunate Americans don’t possess assets
that can appreciate in value, such as real estate, stocks and other
investments. Inflation will add to the already considerable wealth gap in our nation.
The savings of the
working class are eaten away by the effects of inflation. Wealthy families, by
comparison, who have borrowed heavily for their homes, investments and business
ventures may pay back the loans with cheaper money due to the corrosive effects
of inflation.
Senior citizens on a tight budget who
scrimped and saved over the years are punished for their fiscal sobriety.
Inflation harms the value of money sitting in a bank account. They are earning
a minuscule interest rate, and the rapid rise in inflation further devalues
their savings. Purchasing power is reduced, and the dollar doesn’t go as far as
it used only six months ago.
Local bodegas tend to charge larger prices on goods as they
don’t have the leverage with suppliers like the big chains and have a captive
market. They also offer less variety, leaning towards inexpensive junk food
over more expensive fruits and vegetables. This doesn’t help the health of the local community. Lower-income families are often
forced to pay higher prices as they don’t or can’t spend the money on gas to
travel to big box stores and buy bulk household products. Comparatively,
wealthier consumers are financially capable of stocking up on necessities when
they are on sale. They can also afford to shop at places such as Whole Foods,
which offers a broader variety of healthy choices.
As this cohort
depends on paycheck-to-paycheck, inflation serves as another pernicious tax.
After factoring in the over 9% inflation rate, their wages don’t leave them
with much disposable income.
More
Inflation Will
Wreak Havoc On The Working Class (forbes.com)
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As
The Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
How
Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now?
Robert Pearl, M.D.Jul 25, 2022,04:00am
EDT
When doctors go to
the doctor, they usually spend the first few minutes chatting about their
personal lives and about healthcare in general. Recently, a visit to my
ophthalmologist’s office led to an unexpected yet familiar conversation about
second Covid-19 boosters.
The physician wasn’t
sure whether he should get a fourth dose now or wait. He had read the
CDC’s original guidance in March, the updated guidance in May and the newest guidance from
June, and still he was perplexed. He wondered what I thought.
The more we talked,
the more I understood what he was really asking me: Am I safe or am I
in danger? That’s the root of most Covid-19 questions I receive from
people who write in to my podcast Coronavirus: The
Truth. Americans want to
know how to strike a safe balance between protecting themselves and their loved
ones and trying to enjoy (and get on with) their lives.
For anyone feeling
perplexed, here are five of the most common questions I’ve received via my
podcast of late, along with answers containing relevant facts.
1. What are my chances of dying from
Covid-19?
BA.5 is now the
dominant Omicron subvariant in the United States, and experts are calling it
the worst mutation yet because it’s “spreading like wildfire.” Indeed, Omicron is driving up cases. But are we under-
or over-estimating the threat?
There are two ways to
approach the answer. The first is to ask: How likely am I to die if I get sick?
Nationally, Omicron
leads to 1 death per 2,300 cases or a 0.04% case fatality rate. (Math:
Divide 300 reported daily deaths by 100,000 reported case per day, but then multiply
by seven because the Institute for Health Metrics and other leading research
groups estimate daily infections to be at least seven times greater than reported.)
Using this yardstick,
Omicron is less likely to kill you than the flu, which has a case fatality rate of roughly 0.1%.
More
How Dangerous Is Covid-19 Now? (forbes.com)
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New research furthers
understanding of the electronic structure of graphite
Date: July 19, 2022
Source: National Institutes of Natural Sciences
Summary: Graphite is an incredibly important,
versatile mineral, with uses spanning industries. Graphite is an essential
component of many batteries, including lithium-ion batteries, and demand is
only increasing as new technology is developed. Surprisingly, no spectroscopic
studies have so far accurately measured the electronic states of the surface
and the edge of graphite from a microscopic point of view. Indeed, the
improvement in battery performance depends largely on the control of the
characteristics of the graphite at the tip.
Graphite is
an incredibly important, versatile mineral, with uses spanning industries.
Because graphite can easily conduct electricity and withstand high
temperatures, it is especially important for electronics. Graphite is an
essential component of many batteries, including lithium-ion batteries, and demand
is only increasing as new technology is developed. For example, solar power and
electronic vehicles will require increased production of the batteries and the
need for graphite. Even though graphite has been thoroughly researched for
decades, there is still more for researchers to uncover. Surprisingly, no
spectroscopic studies have so far accurately measured the electronic states of
the surface and the edge of graphite from a microscopic point of view. This is
important because the improvement in battery performance depends largely on the
control of the characteristics of the graphite at the tip.
In a paper published on 21 June 2022
in Physical Review B, researchers have detailed new observations of
the surface state of graphite using a newly developed photoelectron
spectroscopy machine combined with electron microscope.
"In this study, we report the
microscopicobservation of three-fold symmetric graphite surface states coupled
with bulk kz dispersed π bands. The finding
highlights the relevance of considering surface effects in bulk intrinsic
electronic state measurements," said Fumihiko Matsui, a professor at
Institute for Molecular Science in Okazaki, Japan. "The question we
address is: how accurate can we measure the intrinsic bulk kz dispersion?"
More
New research
furthers understanding of the electronic structure of graphite -- ScienceDaily
If a politician
found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them
missionaries for dinner.
H. L. Mencken. The “Sage of Baltimore”.
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