Wednesday 27 July 2022

Chairman Powell’s Big Day. Germany Runs Out Of Gas.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2061 -53   Brent Crude 104.49

Spot Gold 1715         US 2 Year Yield 3.02 +0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 27/07/22 World 577,359,582

Deaths 6,407,699

I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.

Jesse Livermore

It is Fed Chairman Powell’s big day. Does he increase America’s key interest rate by 50 basis points or 75?

How about shocking nearly everyone in the stock casinos by hiking by 100 basis points.

Doing nothing in the face of runaway US inflation officially at 9.1 percent, but running in double digits if calculated by the methodology of the 70s and early 80s, isn’t an option.

Chairman Powell and the Fed blew it last year insisting inflation was transitory. Now he must pay for his great error. Actually, it’s the hapless US public that’s already paying for his Great Error.

So now we all wait on the Fed announcement later today.

Well perhaps not everyone. German’s are waiting to find out later today if Russia will really drop Nord Stream One’s gas throughput down to just 20 percent of capacity.  I have no reason to think that they won’t.


Hong Kong shares lead losses in Asia; Australia’s inflation rises

SINGAPORE — Asia-Pacific shares traded lower on Wednesday with Hong Kong stocks leading losses, as Australia’s inflation rose and investors looked forward to the Fed’s policy decision.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.13%, while the Topix index declined 0.19%.

The Hang Seng index fell around 1% in early trade, and the Hang Seng Tech index slipped 1.19%. Heavyweight Alibaba dropped 3.64% after popping Tuesday after it announced plans for a dual primary listing in Hong Kong.

Mainland China markets also fell. The Shanghai Composite declined 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component lost 0.39%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 was fractionally lower.

South Korea’s  shed 0.56%, but the Kosdaq advanced 0.24%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.72% lower.

Prices in Australia rose 6.1% in the second quarter compared to the same period a year ago, up from 5.1% in the first quarter of the year. Economists polled by Reuters saw inflation hitting 6.2%.

Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note before the announcement that the CPI reading Down Under could influence the market’s expectations for future rate hikes.

“We expect that any impacts on the AUD from today’s CPI will be short lived because the darkening global outlook will be a greater weight on AUD,” she wrote.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its global GDP forecasts for 2022 and 2023. It now expects growth to come in at 3.2% this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than its April projection.

The  weakened to $0.6924 after the inflation print was reported.

U.S. stocks slipped overnight after Walmart cut its earnings forecast.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 228.50 points, or 0.71%, to 31,761.54. The S&P 500 dipped by 1.15% to 3,921.05, while the Nasdaq Composite fell around 1.87% to 11,562.57. 

The Federal Open Market Committee began its meeting on Tuesday stateside and will continue on Wednesday.

Expectations for a 75 basis point move were at 72.7%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

More

Asia markets: Stock indexes fall, Australia inflation rises to 6.1% (cnbc.com)

 

IMF slashes global growth forecast as top three economies ‘stall’

Larry Elliott 26 July 2022

The International Monetary Fund has slashed its growth forecasts for the next 18 months after warning that the world’s three biggest economies are all stalling.

In a downbeat update to its April world economic outlook (WEO), the IMF said problems in the US, China and the eurozone had resulted in global output falling in the second quarter of this year – the first contraction since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Washington-based IMF said it now expected the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2022 – a 0.4 point reduction since April – while inflation is now believed to be higher than previous forecasts. The slowdown is predicted to continue next year, when growth is now forecast to be 2.9% – 0.7 points lower than had been pencilled in three months ago.

“The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook,” said the IMF’s economic counsellor, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

“Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions. China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine.”

The IMF said by the fourth quarter of 2022 it was forecasting global inflation of 8.3%, up from its April estimate of 6.9%. It identified the UK – where inflation is now on course to be 2.7 points higher at 10.5% – and the eurozone (up 2.9 points to 7.3%) as places where cost of living pressures had particularly intensified.

More

IMF slashes global growth forecast as top three economies ‘stall’ (msn.com)

 

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.  

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Nouriel Roubini says predictions for a mild recession are 'delusional' as severe financial crisis looms

July 25, 2022

Recession indicators are ringing and key commodities have plunged into a bear market, signaling a downturn may be on the horizon. And Nouriel Roubini dismissed hopes that an incoming recession will be shallow.

The famed economist, who called the 2008 financial crash, told Bloomberg that the economy is headed for a severe recession as well as a severe debt and financial crisis.

Roubini, also known as "Dr. Doom," said debt ratios are historically high at 420% for advanced economies and climbing, while bailouts during the pandemic have resulted in "zombie corporations" that put the economy at risk.

In contrast, the stagflation seen during the 1970s was accompanied by low debt ratios, and the debt crisis during the 2008 financial crash saw falling inflation. 

"This idea that it's going to be short and shallow, it's totally delusional," Roubini said.

His warning goes against other predictions on Wall Street for a mild recession, including those from Goldman SachsMorgan StanleyWells FargoPimcoNomura, and BlackRock's Larry Fink.

Nouriel Roubini says predictions for a mild recession are 'delusional' as severe financial crisis looms (msn.com)

More Signs Emerge That Inflation Is Altering Shopping Habits

July 26, 2022

A day after Walmart warned investors that its profit would shrink as rising prices forced shoppers to make fewer purchases at its stores, UnileverCoca-Cola and McDonald’s, three other consumer-facing giants, reinforced the message, to different degrees, providing a window into how companies are navigating this fragile economic moment.

 

On Tuesday, Unilever, the maker of Dove soap, Ben & Jerry’s ice cream and Hellmann’s mayonnaise, said it raised prices until they were 11 percent higher than in the same quarter last year, offsetting a 2 percent decline in the volume of things that consumers bought. It was the fourth consecutive quarter in which prices outpaced volume growth at the company.

Unilever raised its forecast for revenue this year but said that its profit would most likely be at the bottom of its expected range, held back by a sharp increase in the prices of plastics, palm oil, aluminum and other commodities it uses as inputs.

Alan Jope, Unilever’s chief executive, said on a call with analysts that “peak cost inflation” was likely to come in the second half of the year. Sales volumes may fall more in the second half than the first, Mr. Jope said, “as the full impact of pricing lands.”

Passing higher prices on to shoppers has led some to buy less or trade down to cheaper store brands, Unilever’s results suggested, a trend also seen in Walmart’s recent financial reports. To keep its higher-priced brands in consumers’ minds, Unilever said that it added about $200 million to its marketing budget in the first half of the year, another factor that put a dent in its profits. Investors appeared heartened by Unilever’s ability to balance prices and costs, with its London-listed shares rising almost 3 percent.

More

More Signs Emerge That Inflation Is Altering Shopping Habits – DNyuz

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Omicron has shattered what we know about COVID reinfections. 

Here’s why you may be vulnerable

Cindy Krischer Goodman, South Florida Sun Sentinel – July 25 2022

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Initially, enduring COVID had one redeeming quality: It gave you some short-term immunity from getting infected again.

But the new omicron subvariants are shattering that trend. BA.5, which now makes up 66% of COVID cases in Florida, has caused more people to catch COVID for the second or third time than previous strains.

BA.5 is known for having a structure that is maximized to evade immunity and for transmitting from person-to-person more easily than other subvariants in the omicron family.

Here’s what you need to know about reinfections.

Emerging research shows the percentage of reinfections is rising.

Helix, which sequences COVID-19 tests to surveil variants, found out of nearly 300,000 infections since March 2021, the share that was reinfections almost doubled to 6.4% during the BA.5 wave in July from 3.6% during the BA.2 wave in May.

The Helix data shows that most reinfections in July occurred in people who had COVID-19 in 2021.

Experts expect the rate of reinfections to continue to climb for two main reasons: BA.5 is highly contagious, and the majority of the country — and Florida — has already contracted COVID-19 at least once.

Early in the pandemic, strains like delta weren’t replaced as fast by new variants and people who had COVID-19 had some protection against reinfection for several months. But now, new strains are sweeping through the country one after the other.

Just since April, BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and now BA.5, have had turns at being the dominant strain. So Floridians who got an earlier variation of omicron in spring could be vulnerable to reinfection from a different strain circulating this summer or fall.

Experts differ on how soon you can get reinfected

More

Omicron has shattered what we know about COVID reinfections. Here’s why you may be vulnerable (msn.com)

Long COVID may cause hair, libido loss, as well as brain fog, study says

JULY 25, 2022 / 11:00 AM

July 25 (UPI) -- Long COVID sufferers are experiencing a broader array of symptoms than previously thought, including hair loss and sexual dysfunction, as well as fatigue, breathing difficulties and brain fog, according to new research.

The British study, published Monday in Nature Medicine, found that patients with previous infection from SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus reported 62 symptoms much more frequently 12 weeks after initial infection than did people with no history of COVID-19.

The research also identified key demographic groups and behaviors that seem to suggest which people are at increased risk of developing long COVID, including women, younger people, and individuals of Black, mixed or other ethnic groups.

Also, people from low socioeconomic backgrounds, smokers, and people who are overweight or obese, as well as individuals with a wide range of pre-existing health conditions, were associated with persistent post-COVID infection symptoms.

The research validates what patients have been telling clinicians throughout the pandemic -- that the prolonged symptoms of long COVID "are extremely broad and cannot be fully accounted for by other factors, such as lifestyle risk factors or chronic health conditions," Dr. Shamil Haroon, the study's senior author, said in a news release.

More

Long COVID may cause hair, libido loss, as well as brain fog, study says - UPI.com

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

SCA and Scania Develop Electric Timber Trucks

JULY 25, 2022 BY STAFF WRITER

SCA, together with Scania, has developed the world’s first electric timber truck with a capacity of 80 metric tons. SCA’s goal is to make the entire value chain fossil fuel-free.

The intention is that the vehicle will transport timber on the stretch between SCA’s timber terminal in Gimonäs and the paper mill in Obbola outside Umeå in Sweden. The new electric timber truck can be driven with a total weight of 64 metric tons on public roads and 80 metric tons on private roads.

SCA Obbola’s paper mill currently has a virtually fossil-free production process and the intention of the new vehicle is to reduce the fossil fuel elements in the transport chain of raw material to the mill.

The electric timber truck will be test-driven during the summer and continuously studied by the research institute Skogforsk to collect relevant data that can form the basis for comparisons with conventional diesel-powered timber transports. After that, the plan is for it to be included in SCA’s regular operations.

“Sustainability and reduced carbon dioxide emissions are important for society as a whole, which means that the business is also dependent on us driving development. Our forests and forest products have created enormous climate benefits for a long period of time and our industries are very climate-efficient, which is why it is also obvious with high climate ambitions for our transports,” says Hans Djurberg.

The studies carried out during the summer will, among other things, compare energy consumption, productivity and costs against existing vehicles and map out what would be required for a broad implementation of electric timber trucks across the country.

More

SCA and Scania Develop Electric Timber Trucks (environmentalleader.com)

As money got tighter, call-money rates went higher and prices of stocks lower.

Jesse Livermore.

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