Thursday, 21 July 2022

Nord Stream One Restarts. The ECB’s Dilemma.

 Baltic Dry Index. 2113 -32   Brent Crude 106.02

Spot Gold 1693         US 2 Year Yield 3.25 +0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 21/07/22 World 571,707,689

Deaths 6,396,131

21 July 1588 the first engagement between the English fleet and the Spanish Armada off the Eddystone Rocks, off Cornwall but actually part of next door Devon.

The good news this morning is that Gazprom says it has restarted shipping Europe gas again via the Nord Stream One pipeline to Germany. No word yet as to what capacity, although that might take some time to determine.

In the stock casinos, a nervous pause as commodities and the US yield curve inverting suggest stagflation looks like turning into recession.

In Europe, the ECB meets and must decide whether to fight inflation by raising interest rates, further blowing up the PIGS interest rates from Germany’s, or doing nothing or merely a token raise, hammering the Euro lower against most currencies.

Those trapped in the Euro might want to consider cashing out some for fully paid up physical gold and silver at what I think will become historic lows.


Japan’s Nikkei rises modestly after Bank of Japan keeps rates on hold; Asia markets mixed

SINGAPORE — Japan’s benchmark index rose modestly on Thursday after the Bank of Japan kept rates on hold, while Asia markets were mixed.

The Nikkei 225 in Japan reversed earlier losses to rise 0.15% while the Topix index was fractionally lower after the central bank’s decision was announced.

----Rio Tinto shares fell 3.38% after the company said it will pay the Australian Taxation Office an additional tax of 613 million Australian dollars ($422 million) over a dispute. Rio previously paid the ATO 378 million Australian dollars.

South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.5% and the Kosdaq was 0.44% higher.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 1.37% with real estate and financial stocks pulling the index lower, while mainland China markets dropped.

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.42% and Shenzhen Component declined 0.17%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.33%.

Bank of Japan decision

The Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-easy monetary policy as expected, while lowering its growth forecast for 2022 and raising its inflation predictions.

“The Bank of Japan stays a bastion of stability here,” Jesper Koll, director at Monex Group Japan, said.

“In fact, the revision down in the Bank of Japan’s growth projection suggests that the Bank of Japan is going to stay put for much, much longer,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Thursday.

Japan’s yen changed hands at 138.27 per dollar following the decision.

The currency has weakened considerably in recent months as Japan’s easy monetary policy diverges from that of other countries.

Central banks in the region and the rest of the world have raised interest rates in a bid to keep inflation under control. The European Central Bank is expected to hike rates later Thursday.

Takuji Okubo, managing director of Japan Macro Advisors, acknowledged that there are concerns over the falling value of the yen.

----In company news, Hyundai Motor will be reporting its second-quarter results Thursday.

Overnight in the U.S., major averages reached their highest points since early June.

The Nasdaq Composite popped 1.58% to 11,897.65, and the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 3,959.90. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 47.79 points, or 0.15%, to 31,874.84 after struggling for direction in the session.

More

Asia markets: Stocks mixed as Bank of Japan stands pat (cnbc.com)

Stock futures slip after Nasdaq’s rally as investors digest corporate earnings

Stock futures dipped on Thursday morning as investors hoped to build on a strong start to the week amid a flurry of corporate earnings.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 33 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.13%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.23%.

The move in futures comes as Wall Street is enjoying a July rebound, with the three major averages hitting their highest levels in more than a month.

----“The bulls seem to be coming back into the market now. We’ve seen pretty sharp rallies in tech, crypto and other risk assets over the past few days,” said Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro. “Which is notable to us, because in an economy with some pretty notable weakness in it, you’d expect to be seeing other parts of the market performing well. But the animal spirits are back, at least for now.”

In the early weeks of earnings season, corporate results have largely held up so far, helping calm fears about an impending recession.

However, the reports after the bell on Wednesday were mostly mixed. Shares of Alcoa and CSX jumped in extended trading after the companies beat expectations. Shares of Tesla were choppy after the automaker reported stronger-than-expected earnings but shrinking automotive gross margins.

More

Stock futures slip after Nasdaq's rally as investors digest corporate earnings (cnbc.com) 

Finally, news from China on that US/NATO proxy war on Russia. As with western “news” reports, we have no way of telling truth from propaganda.

Yesterday in a speech CIA Director Burns put the US estimate of Russian troop deaths in Ukraine at 15,000, considerably lower than the 34,000 put out by Kiev.

At the same conference Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, said the US and its allies are thinking about widening the war by providing fighter jets to Ukraine.  How long before we end up in nuclear war with Russia? Not too long I think.

Russian aerospace forces destroy three Ukrainian aircrafts

By Xinhua Published: Jul 17, 2022 08:47 AM

The following are the latest developments in the Ukraine crisis:

Fighter aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed three Ukrainian aircraft in an air battle, including two MiG-29s in the settlements of Novopavlovka in the Nikolaev region and Vladimirovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday.

The other Su-25 was destroyed in the area of Seversk, it added.

In addition, two Ukrainian helicopters were shot down in the air, including a Mi-8 and a Mi-24.


A total of 256 Ukrainian airplanes and 139 helicopters, 1,557 drones, 355 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,073 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 746 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,149 field artillery and mortars, and 4,253 special military vehicles were destroyed in the course of the special military operation.


Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has instructed the country's armed forces to "intensify actions in all directions" to prevent the Ukrainian troops from massively shelling Donbass and other regions, the Russian Defense Ministry said Saturday.


Shoigu has paid an inspection visit to Russia's South and Center military groupings, which are involved in the special military operation in Ukraine, the ministry said in a statement.

He heard reports from the commanders of the two military groupings on the Ukrainian forces' actions and the progress of the Russian forces' combat missions. Shoigu presented medals to two generals for their work in the special military operation.


Russian armed forces launched missile strikes at a building of the garrison house of officers
in the Western city of Vinnytsia in Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry said Friday.

The ministry said that high-precision sea-based Kalibr missiles were launched at the building.

It added that a conference was being held at the facility at the time of the strike between the command of the Ukrainian armed forces and foreign arms suppliers.

Russian aerospace forces destroy three Ukrainian aircrafts - Global Times

 

CIA estimates about 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine war

July 20 2022 

Around 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and a further 45,000 have been wounded in the war in Ukraine, the United States believes. 

  • Military deaths are classified as state secrets in Russia and regular updates have not been provided 
  • Last month, the government in Kyiv said 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops were killed every day
  • CIA director William Burns said Russia had retreated to a "more comfortable way of war"

CIA director William Burns said Russia's efforts to occupy about a fifth of Ukraine had come at a great cost for both countries.

"The latest estimates from the US intelligence community would be something in the vicinity of 15,000 [Russian forces] killed, and maybe three times that wounded," he said. 

"The Ukrainians have suffered as well, probably a little less than that.

But, you know, significant casualties."

Russia classifies its military deaths as a state secret and has not updated its official casualty figures frequently during the war. 

Its latest update was on March 25, when it reported 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed.

Last month, the government in Kyiv said 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops were being killed each day.

More

CIA estimates about 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine war - ABC News

 

U.S., allies weigh providing Ukraine fighter jets to counter Russia

July 20 2022

Senior U.S. officials acknowledged Wednesday that the United States and its allies are considering whether to provide Ukraine with new fighter jets and the training needed to operate them, a move that would dramatically expand Western involvement in the war with Russia.

Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, said that although he would not speculate what type of aircraft might be transferred, discussions are ongoing about how to reinforce Ukraine’s fleet, including with new planes. The Ukrainian air force has been outgunned by Russia since the invasion began Feb. 24, sparingly flying an assortment of MiG jets and other Cold War-era planes.

Brown said there are several possibilities, including American-made fighters or some made in Europe. Options include the Gripen fighter made in Sweden, the Rafale made in France, and the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is built by a consortium of companies in several countries.

“It’ll be something non-Russian, I can probably tell you that,” Brown said during an appearance at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado. “But I can’t tell you exactly what it’s going to be.”

U.S., allies weigh providing Ukraine fighter jets to counter Russia (msn.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

UK inflation hits new 40-year high of 9.4% as cost-of-living crisis deepens

PUBLISHED WED, JUL 20 20222:04 AM EDT

LONDON — U.K. inflation hit yet another new 40-year high in June as food and energy prices continued to soar, escalating the country’s historic cost-of-living crisis.

The consumer price index rose 9.4% annually, according to estimates out Wednesday, slightly above a consensus forecast among economists polled by Reuters and up from 9.1% in May.

This represented a 0.8% monthly incline in consumer prices, exceeding the the previous month’s 0.7% rise but remaining short of the 2.5% monthly increase in April.

The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said in Wednesday’s report that its indicative modelled consumer price inflation estimates “suggest that the CPI rate would last have been higher around 1982, where estimates range from nearly 11% in January down to approximately 6.5% in December.”

The most significant contributors to the rising inflation rate came from motor fuels and food, the ONS said, with the former soaring 42.3% on the year, the highest rate since before the start of the constructed historical series in 1989.

The Bank of England has implemented five consecutive 25 basis point hikes to interest rates as it looks to rein in inflation, but Governor Andrew Bailey suggested in a speech at the Mansion House Financial and Professional Services Dinner on Tuesday that the Monetary Policy Committee could consider a 50 basis point hike at its August policy meeting.

This would constitute the U.K.’s biggest single increase in interest rates for nearly 30 years, and Bailey vowed that there would be “no ifs or buts” in the Bank’s commitment to return inflation to its 2% target. The governor has received public criticism from several of the Conservative Party hopefuls to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister.

“From the perspective of monetary policy, these times are the largest challenge to the monetary policy regime of inflation targeting that we have seen in the quarter century since the MPC was created in 1997,” Bailey said.

----The Bank expects inflation to peak at around 11% later in the year, while new ONS figures Tuesday showed that real wages in the U.K. over the three months to May experienced their steepest decline since records began in 2001, as pay increases failed to draw close to the inflation rate.

“The intense cost of living squeeze is putting significant pressure on the UK’s consumer-led economy and means the risk of recession is high,” said Hussain Mehdi, macro and investment strategist at HSBC Asset Management.

More

UK inflation hits new 40-year high of 9.4% as cost-of-living crisis deepens (cnbc.com)

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

Big study reveals increased heart disease & diabetes risk after COVID-19

Rich Haridy  July 19, 2022

There is both good and bad news in the findings from a massive new UK study tracking half a million subjects for up to a year following COVID-19. The study found COVID patients were at significantly greater risk of cardiovascular problems and new diabetes diagnoses for many weeks after an infection, however, that risk did return to baseline after several months.

Alongside the acute challenges of COVID-19 and the distinct persistent condition of long COVID, researchers are increasingly seeing that recovered patients suffer higher rates of strokediabetes and heart disease in the months following an infection. But the long-term outcomes from COVID-19 are still unclear.

One of the largest longitudinal studies on the subject was published earlier this year. From Washington University, around 150,000 COVID cases were followed for up to 12 months. Those subjects were 55 percent more likely to experience a serious cardiovascular event in the year after recovering.

This new research, led by a team from King’s College London, looked at health records from 428,650 COVID-19 patients in the United Kingdom. Each patient was demographically matched against a control patient and two specific health outcomes were tracked in the 12 months following COVID infection: new diagnoses of cardiovascular disease and diabetes.

More

Big study reveals increased heart disease & diabetes risk after COVID-19 (newatlas.com)

Next, some vaccine links kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Film captures wasted wavelengths of light to boost solar cell efficiency

Michael Irving  July 19, 2022

Solar cells are one of the most important technologies in the transition to renewable energy, but there’s still plenty of room for improvement. Researchers at New York University (NYU) Tandon have now developed a thin film that boosts solar cell efficiency by converting wasted wavelengths of light into ones that can be used to produce electricity.

Silicon is the material of choice for most solar cells in use today, but while it excels at absorbing the red end of the visible spectrum of sunlight, it all but ignores shorter wavelengths like ultraviolet and blue light. Scientists have been experimenting with different solar cell designsmaterials and dyes that might be able to make use of more of the spectrum, but so far it’s been tricky to make meaningful headway.

Now, the NYU Tandon researchers may have made a breakthrough, with a thin film that can convert UV and blue photons from sunlight into near-infrared photons. The film could be used to boost the efficiency of an existing silicon solar cell by essentially allowing it to harvest energy that would otherwise go to waste.

Importantly, it doesn’t block the other wavelengths of light that silicon can readily tap into. And as an added bonus, reducing the amount of UV radiation that hits the solar cell can help them last longer.

The film is made up of an inorganic perovskite material doped with small amounts of ytterbium. The perovskite is adept at absorbing blue light and transferring that energy to the ytterbium, which emits it as near-infrared light. These red photons can then be picked up by the silicon solar cell, supplementing its usual diet coming directly from the Sun.

In tests, the team found that the film could convert blue photons to red with an efficiency of 82.5 percent. It’s important not to get this figure confused with the efficiency of the solar cell itself – those are still hovering in the mid-20s for silicon – but this new film should help boost that. To what extent is a question for further tests to address.

More

Film captures wasted wavelengths of light to boost solar cell efficiency (newatlas.com)

21 July 1545.

The Chronicle of Charles Wriothesley (died 1562) reports: "The 21 day of July the French galleys and navie came before Portesmouth haven, and landed certeine of theyre armye in the Yle of Wyght, and there burned and camped there about to the nomber of 2,000 men, and came every tyde with theyr gallies and shott their ordinaunce at the Kinges ships in the haven; but the winde was so calme that the Kinges shippes could bear noe sayle, which was a great discomfort for them." Three days later a muster of 1500 men was sent from the City of London to repel them, but by the King's command turned back at Farnham, the French having left the Isle of Wight "and divers of them slaine and drowned".

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