Baltic Dry Index. 2146 +28 Brent Crude 102.56
Spot Gold 1727 US 2 Year Yield 2.98 -0.12
Coronavirus
Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000
Deaths 53,100
Coronavirus Cases 25/07/22 World 575,333,602
Deaths 6,403,242
“As government
expands, liberty contracts.”
It is Fed week again with the US Federal Reserve due to reset its key interest rate on Thursday. The big question is whether they will increase their interest rate by 50 basis points or 75.
While its all about belatedly fighting runaway inflation, commodity prices are signalling inflation has peaked, all the more so if Friday’s Ukraine-Russia grain deal releases Ukraine and Russian supply back into the global market, plus freeing up storage space for the Ukraine incoming 2022 harvest.
I think another reason to think that inflation has already peaked as the new recession arrives, is weakness in the USA real estate market. More on that in the section below.
I
suspect the recent bounce in the stock casinos is a final exit rally before the
new recession really hits, rather than the bottom of the 2022 stock casino
sell-off.
Hong Kong’s tech
stocks drop as Asia markets mostly fall
SINGAPORE — Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech index lost
nearly 2% on Monday as major indexes in Asia-Pacific dropped.
The Hang Seng index in
Hong Kong fell 0.72%, and the Hang Seng Tech index lost around 2%.
The Financial Times reported over the
weekend that China plans to sort U.S.-listed Chinese companies into three
groups depending on the sensitivity of the data the firms hold.
The new system aims to prevent American regulators
from delisting Chinese companies by bringing some firms into compliance with
the U.S. rules, the FT reported, citing people with knowledge of the situation.
Chinese firms with “secretive” data would have to delist, the report said.
Hong Kong shares of U.S.-listed
Chinese companies dropped on Monday. Nio plunged 6.86%, XPeng lost 7.07%
and Alibaba fell
1.76%.
Mainland China markets were also
lower. The Shanghai Composite slipped
0.28%, and the Shenzhen
Component shed 0.36%.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan
declined 0.73% and the Topix index lost 0.66%.
In South Korea, the Kospi bucked the
trend to rise 0.37%, while the Kosdaq shed 0.24%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was
0.1% lower.
MSCI’s broadest index of
Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan was down 0.44%.
Inflation data in Singapore is set
to be released Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the core consumer
price index for June to increase 4.2% compared to a year ago. Prices rose 3.6%
in May.
Over the weekend, the
World Health Organization declared monkeypox a global health emergency. The
organization’s emergency committee was unable to reach a consensus, but WHO
chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus made the decision to issue the highest alert,
though he said it is unlikely to disrupt global trade or travel at the moment.
Later this week, all eyes will be
on the Fed rate decision and the release of second quarter gross domestic
product data in the U.S.
Expectations for a 75 basis point
move in July stood at 78.7%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“With the focus on the US FOMC
meeting, Asian assets will likely trade mixed in the early part of the week
with stagflation risks staying top-of-mind,” Venkateswaran Lavanya, an
economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote in a note Monday.
Within the Asia-Pacific region,
advance estimates for South Korea’s GDP will be out Tuesday and Australia
reports inflation data Wednesday.
More
Asia
markets: Hang Seng Tech index down 2%, major index slip (cnbc.com)
Stock futures are
little changed as Wall Street braces for a busy week of earnings, Fed meeting
U.S. stock futures
were little changed on Monday morning, coming off a positive week for the major
averages, as traders brace for the busiest week of corporate earnings, as well
as insights into further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones Industrial
Average futures slid 35 points, or 0.11%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.12% and
Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.08%.
On Friday, the major
averages fell on the back of weaker-than-expected earnings from Snap that sent
tech shares tumbling. The Dow lost 137.61 points, or 0.43%. The S&P 500
declined 0.93% to 3,961.63, while the Nasdaq Composite traded 1.87% lower at
11,834.11.
Still, all three
benchmarks closed the week higher, with the Dow up 2%. The S&P 500 advanced
about 2.6%, and the Nasdaq capped the week up 3.3%.
Investors shifted
into risk assets last week after absorbing some strong corporate results that
had Wall Street deliberating whether the bear market has found a bottom.
“Equities have
managed to stage a rally MTD, and climb a wall of worry. The bounce has been
led by cyclical and Growth stocks, helped by longer end yields stabilizing,
which in turn eases the pressure on P/E’s,” Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau wrote in a
Friday note.
“This confirms to us
that the market’s focus has switched from inflation worries to growth worries,
with a sense that bad news is becoming good news again,” Cau added.
As of Friday, about
21% of companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings. Of those, nearly 70%
beat analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet.
Investors are
expecting a stacked week of earnings ahead that will include reports from major
tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft.
The Federal Reserve
on Wednesday will also conclude its two-day policy meeting. Economists are
widely expecting a three-quarter point hike.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its
own.
As
goes the property market in many developed countries so goes the economy.
‘There’s
a Recession Coming’: The Rich Rush to Offload Luxury Properties
The rich are now paying attention to prices and
their income, lament high-end agents in hotspots like Miami and San Francisco.
"It's pretty sudden," one said.
22 July 2022, 2:00pm
After a decade of feeling
invincible, the tech industry is suddenly facing something new: financial
insecurity. Valuations are down, layoffs are up, startup funding no longer
feels limitless, and an air of fear has started to permeate the sector, as bosses
and workers alike adjust to a harsher version of reality.
In cities like San Francisco,
New York, and Miami, luxury real estate agents are starting to notice the
effects of the tech downturn on their business, they tell Motherboard, as
wealthy tech clients grapple with the fact that raises, bonuses, and job offers
no longer seem as inevitable as they did a few months ago.
“The elephant in the room these
days is that there's a recession coming,” said Karley Chynces, a
blockchain-focused real estate agent at Sotheby's International Realty in
Miami.
Nationally, rising interest
rates for home loans
have combined with record home costs to price out potential homebuyers. But
within the pockets of the country where tech workers tend to throw money down
on housing, interest rates are less of a concern than the decline of tech
stocks and the constant barrage of layoff announcements, according to conversations agents have had with their
clients.
“It's wider than just interest
rates because a lot of people in New York City actually purchase in cash,” said
Manhattan real estate agent McKenzie Ryan.
There are signs that the
housing market may have temporarily peaked. Asking prices have slipped ever so slightly, homebuilders are starting work on fewer homes,
and mortgage demand is the lowest it’s been since 2000.
For now, home sales are down most among the cheapest homes, where
buyers are more price-conscious and typically affected more by interest rates
changes. But a spokesperson for the real estate brokerage RedFin, which
analyzes housing data, said markets like San Francisco are “definitely
cooling.” A recent RedFin analysis found sales of luxury homes were down almost 18 percent in the three months leading up to
May, compared to a 5.4 percent drop among non-luxury homes. (RedFin defines
“luxury” homes as those in the top 5 percent in price in a given area.)
More
‘There’s a Recession Coming’: The Rich Rush to Offload
Luxury Properties (vice.com)
More than 60% of Boise Home
Sellers Dropped Their Asking Price in June Amid Cooling Market
July 14, 2022 8:00 am EDT
Home sellers
are contending with apprehensive buyers amid rising mortgage rates and the
possibility of an oncoming recession
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nearly two-thirds (61.5%) of homes for sale in Boise, ID had a
price drop in June, according to a new analysis from
Redfin (www.redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s
the highest share of the 97 metros in the analysis. Price drops have become a
common feature of the cooling housing market, particularly in places that were
popular with homebuyers earlier in the pandemic.
Next came Denver (55.1%) and
Salt Lake City (51.6%), each metros where more than half of for-sale homes had
a price drop. They were followed by Tacoma, WA (49.5%), Grand Rapids, MI
(49.3%) and Sacramento (48.7%). Seattle (46.3%), Portland, OR (45.7%), Tampa,
FL (44.5%) and Indianapolis (44.1%)–all of which saw price cuts for nearly half
the for-sale homes–round out the top 10.
Boise also had the biggest increase in
the share of listings with price drops from a year earlier, when 25.7% of
sellers cut their price. Denver, Salt Lake City and Grand Rapids were also
among the 10 metros with the biggest upticks from a year earlier.
Boise, Salt Lake City, Sacramento
and Tampa were popular during the pandemic with homebuyers moving in from
pricey coastal job centers, taking advantage of low mortgage rates and remote
work. Their popularity led to heated competition for a limited supply of homes
for sale, pushing up prices and making them unaffordable for many buyers. In
Boise, for instance, the typical home sold for $550,000 in May, up more than
60% from two years earlier. Home prices increased 44% to $610,000 in
Sacramento. Mortgage rates nearly doubling to almost 6% in the first half of
2022 priced even more buyers out.
“Home sellers are contending
with a rapidly changing market, especially in places where they’re used to
their neighbor’s homes getting multiple offers and selling for more than asking
price,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “Higher mortgage rates
and a potential recession are causing prospective buyers in popular migration
destinations to press the pause button, and they’re also having a big impact on
workers in big job centers who rely on their stock portfolio for down payments.
In places like Denver, Seattle and Portland, some buyers feel less confident
about their finances in the face of a shaky economy and faltering stock market.
Sellers are adjusting their expectations in real time as they realize they may
not get the price their neighbor got two months ago.”
More
Below,
why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be
quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity
Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.
The
“New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking
https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf
Mines,
Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check
"An
Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The
Industry Races To Recycle
by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic,
this section is close to coming to its end.
Meet
the covid super-dodgers
The
no-covid club gets more exclusive every day. And some members have no idea how
they’re still there.
By Ellen McCarthy July 21, 2022 at 7:00
a.m. EDT
----There are no winners
in a pandemic. That said, if you’ve made it to the summer of 2022 without yet
testing positive for the coronavirus, you might feel entitled to some bragging
rights. Who’s still in the game at this point? Not Anthony S. Fauci. Not President Biden, who tested positive this week. Not Denzel Washington, Camila Cabello or Lionel Messi. Not your friend who’s even more
cautious than you but who finally caught it last week. The Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention estimated that nearly 60 percent of Americans had contracted the virus at some
point — and that was as of the end of February, before the
extremely contagious BA.4 and BA.5 variants became rampant.
You might suspect that you are special — immunologically
superior, a super-dodger. You also might have come up with some bizarre
theories about why you’ve lasted longer.
----But among covid-deniers — the always-testing-negative ones,
not the conspiracy theory crew — theories about the reasons for their good
fortune abound.
“I must have superhuman immunity or something,” mused Kathi Moss, a 63-year-old pediatric nurse from Southfield, Mich.
Scientists have found no conclusive evidence of
innate genetic immunity. “It would be extremely unlikely that any innate immune
system properties could protect against all infections,” said Eleanor Murray,
an epidemiologist and professor at the Boston University School of Public Health.
But Moss’s ability to duck the virus — to her knowledge, we should
add; a disclaimer that applies to all these folks, since in theory they could
have had asymptomatic cases at some point — does cry out for an
explanation.
More
People who haven't gotten covid yet are in an exclusive club - The Washington Post
Next, some vaccine links
kindly sent along from a LIR reader in Canada.
NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine
Tracker. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Regulatory Focus COVID-19
vaccine tracker. https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Some other useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Centers for Disease Control
Coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
The
Spectator Covid-19
data tracker (UK)
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Buckyballs on gold are less
exotic than graphene
Date: July 21, 2022
Source: Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin für Materialien und
Energie
Summary: C60 molecules on a gold substrate appear more
complex than their graphene counterparts, but have much more ordinary
electronic properties. This is now shown by measurements with ARPES at BESSY II
and detailed calculations.
Graphene consists of carbon atoms
that crosslink in a plane to form a flat honeycomb structure. In addition to
surprisingly high mechanical stability, the material has exciting electronic
properties: The electrons behave like massless particles, which can be clearly
demonstrated in spectrometric experiments. Measurements reveal a linear
dependence of energy on momentum, namely the so-called Dirac cones -- two lines
that cross without a band gap -- i.e. an energy difference between electrons in
the conduction band and those in the valence bands.
Variants in
graphene architecture
Artificial variants of graphene
architecture are a hot topic in materials research right now. Instead of carbon
atoms, quantum dots of silicon have been placed, ultracold atoms have been
trapped in the honeycomb lattice with strong laser fields, or carbon monoxide
molecules have been pushed into place on a copper surface piece by piece with a
scanning tunneling microscope, where they could impart the characteristic
graphene properties to the electrons of the copper.
Artificial graphene
with buckyballs?
A recent study suggested that it is
infinitely easier to make artificial graphene using C60 molecules
called buckyballs. Only a uniform layer of these needs to be vapor-deposited
onto gold for the gold electrons to take on the special graphene properties.
Measurements of photoemission spectra appeared to show a kind of Dirac cone.
Analysis of band
structures at BESSY II
"That would be really quite
amazing," says Dr. Andrei Varykhalov, of HZB, who heads a photoemission
and scanning tunneling microscopy group. "Because the C60 molecule
is absolutely nonpolar, it was hard for us to imagine how such molecules would
exert a strong influence on the electrons in the gold." So Varykhalov and
his team launched a series of measurements to test this hypothesis.
In tricky and detailed analyses, the
Berlin team was able to study C60 layers on gold over a much
larger energy range and for different measurement parameters. They used
angle-resolved ARPES spectroscopy at BESSY II, which enables particularly
precise measurements, and also analysed electron spin for some measurements.
Normal behavior
"We see a parabolic relationship
between momentum and energy in our measured data, so it's a very normal
behavior. These signals come from the electrons deep in the substrate (gold or
copper) and not the layer, which could be affected by the buckyballs,"
explains Dr. Maxim Krivenkov, lead author of the study. The team was also able
to explain the linear measurement curves from the previous study. "These
measurement curves merely mimic the Dirac cones; they are an artifact, so to
speak, of a deflection of the photoelectrons as they leave the gold and pass
through the C60 layer," Varykhalov explains. Therefore,
the buckyball layer on gold cannot be considered an artificial graphene.
Buckyballs on gold
are less exotic than graphene -- ScienceDaily
“Government's
view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax
it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
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