Tuesday, 19 July 2022

Toxic Sanctions Disaster Nears.

Baltic Dry Index. 2162 +12   Brent Crude 105.87

Spot Gold 1709          US 2 Year Yield 3.15 +0.02

Coronavirus Cases 02/04/20 World 1,000,000

Deaths 53,100

Coronavirus Cases 19/07/22 World 568,668,131

Deaths 6,389,501

“We don't have a trillion-dollar debt because we haven't taxed enough; we have a trillion-dollar debt because we spend too much.”

Ronald Reagan

With Europe’s heat wave crisis well covered in mainstream media, except for it’s hit to Europe’s GDP, although that’s probably not yet known, we’ll leave that to MSM and stick today to the casinos, commodities and the global fallout from the west’s increasingly toxic sanctions on Russia.

At some point ahead, hopefully, some grown ups will realise that drinking this Kool-aid isn’t having its intended effect, but sadly neither in the USA, Canada, UK nor EU there are no grown ups to be found.

Meanwhile, look away from that inverting US yield curve now!

Asia-Pacific markets mostly lower after a positive start to the week

SINGAPORE — Shares in the Asia-Pacific were mostly lower Tuesday after a positive start to the week, and as investors digested Australia’s central bank’s meeting minutes.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led losses, dropping 1.15%, and the Hang Seng Tech index fell 1.64%.

Mainland China markets were lower. The Shanghai Composite shed 0.29% and the Shenzhen Component slipped 0.64%.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.6%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia released its meeting minutes on Tuesday, which showed that the board saw current rates as being “well below” the neutral rate, suggesting that further increases will be needed to return inflation to the target over time.

The RBA raised rates by 50 basis points earlier this month. “The level of interest rates was still very low for an economy with a tight labour market and facing a period of higher inflation,” the minutes said.

The Australian dollar strengthened to $0.6838.

South Korea’s indexes were mixed. The Kospi shed 0.29% while the Kosdaq gained 0.28%.

Japanese markets returned to trade Tuesday after a holiday on Monday and bucked the trend in the region. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.76% while the Topix index climbed 0.55%.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.69%.

Major indexes in the region all rose at least 1% on Monday, with Hong Kong stocks leading gains and closing 2.7% higher.

But uncertainty remains over the trajectory of inflation and what the Fed will do, said Suresh Tantia, senior investment strategist at Credit Suisse.

“It’s quite likely that markets remain volatile in the short term,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

In company news, the Financial Times reported that SoftBank has paused plans to list chip designer Arm in London because of political uncertainty in the U.K. SoftBank Group’s shares rose 1.36%. The firm declined to comment when contacted by CNBC.

Meanwhile, Swire Pacific, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate, sad it acquired Coca-Cola subsidiaries with bottling businesses in Vietnam and Cambodia. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell around 2%.

Major U.S. stock indexes pulled back and closed lower after rallying earlier in the session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 215.65 points or 0.69% to 31,072.61. The S&P 500 shed 0.84% to 3,830.85. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.81% to 11,360.05.

More

Asia markets: Reserve Bank of Australia, stocks, currencies, oil (cnbc.com)

 

Price cap on Russian oil is a ‘ridiculous idea’ and could push oil to $140, says energy research group

The proposed price cap on Russian oil is a “ridiculous idea” that could backfire on the U.S. and the other Group of 7 countries, according to the co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.

“It’s kind of a ridiculous idea in my view,” Gal Luft told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

“It ignores the fact that oil is a fungible commodity,” he said. The term fungible means interchangeable, implying equal value between two barrels of oil, for example.

The U.S. wants to put a cap on Russia’s oil prices to reduce funds flowing into the the country’s war chest, while also bringing down the cost of oil for consumers.

Luft likened the plan to going to a shop and asking the seller to accept less money than the listed price.

“That’s not how the oil market works,” he said. “This is a very sophisticated market, you cannot force the prices down.”

What’s likely to happen is that Russia will restrict its production and create an artificial shortage in the market, he predicted.

“Those Europeans and Americans that are talking about $40 a barrel, what they’re going to get is $140 a barrel,” Luft warned. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, has reported that the U.S. and its allies have discussed capping the price of Russian oil between $40 and $60 per barrel.

“You cannot trick the laws of supply and demand, and you cannot defy the laws of gravity when it comes to a fungible commodity,” he said.

----What’s likely to happen is that Russia will restrict its production and create an artificial shortage in the market, he predicted.

“Those Europeans and Americans that are talking about $40 a barrel, what they’re going to get is $140 a barrel,” Luft warned. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, has reported that the U.S. and its allies have discussed capping the price of Russian oil between $40 and $60 per barrel.

“You cannot trick the laws of supply and demand, and you cannot defy the laws of gravity when it comes to a fungible commodity,” he said.

Price cap on Russian oil could push oil to $140: Think tank IAGS (cnbc.com)

Finally, with the USA, UK and EU stealing much of Russia’s gold and FX reserves, unsurprisingly other countries have noticed and acted.

China holdings of U.S. debt fall below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010

China’s holdings of U.S. debt have fallen below $1 trillion for the first time in 12 years amid rising interest rates that have made Treasurys potentially less attractive.

Continuing a trend that began early in 2021, China’s portfolio of U.S. government debt in May dropped to $980.8 billion, according to Treasury Department data released Monday. That’s a decline of nearly $23 billion from April and down nearly $100 billion, or 9%, from the year-earlier month.

It also marked the first time since May 2010 that China’s holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark. Japan is now the leading holder of U.S. debt with $1.2 trillion.

The debt decline comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising rates to stop inflation running at its fastest rate since 1981. When rates rise on bonds, prices drop, meaning a capital loss for investors who sell the bonds ahead of maturity.

The decline in China’s share also has been attributed to Beijing working to diversify its foreign debt portfolio.

The reporting period came before the Fed hiked benchmark overnight borrowing rates by 0.75 percentage point in June; there is another increase of the same size likely next week.

More

China U.S. debt holdings go under $1 trillion for 1st time in 12 years (cnbc.com)

Global Inflation/Stagflation Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,  inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

CORN GROWERS CALL ON ADMINISTRATION FOR HELP WITH SKYROCKETING INPUT COSTS, BURDENSOME REGULATIONS
Jul. 18, 2022

Source: National Corn Growers Association news release

As farmers work to feed and fuel the world, filling the void left by the war in Ukraine, national corn grower leaders unanimously passed a sense of the Corn Congress today calling on President Biden to maintain grower access to crop inputs.

The vote came during the National Corn Growers Association Corn Congress meeting, which is being held this week in the nation's capital.

The measure, which is included in its entirety below, notes that "the world is facing skyrocketing fuel prices and potentially devastating food shortages, both of which can be addressed in part by America's corn farmers, and America's corn farmers have demonstrated a commitment to environmental sustainability through decades of documented reductions in soil erosion, greenhouse gas emissions and energy use."

It then asserts that "the ability to address the crises facing our world today in a sustainable manner cannot be achieved without fair access to the inputs necessary to raise a crop each year, including pesticides, fertilizer and biotechnology seeds."

The vote comes after EPA revised its atrazine registration, a move that could restrict access to a critical crop protection tool that has been well tested and shown to be safe for use.

It also comes after the U.S. Supreme Court recently refused to hear a case decided by a lower court from California, leaving in place a ruling that supports the claim that glyphosate use causes cancer - even as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has repeatedly affirmed that the widely sold and well-studied herbicide is not carcinogenic.

Farmers have raised the alarm that a patchwork of regulations related to the farming tool could pop up across the country.

Farmers have also experienced major fertilizer price hikes and shortages over the last year thanks in part to steps taken by the U.S. International Trade Commission to impose tariffs on these products.

Corn Growers also raised these issues with Congress during recent Capitol Hill visits.

more

https://www.agrimarketing.com/s/141677

Disney's ESPN+ to hike monthly subscription by $3

July 15 (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) plans to raise the monthly subscription fee for its sports streaming platform ESPN+ by $3 a month, a 43% hike, the company said on Friday.

The price of an ESPN+ subscription will rise to $9.99 per month starting Aug. 23, while the cost of an annual subscription will go up to $99.99 from $69.99. Subscribers will be officially notified next week.

However, the fee for those getting a bundle of all of Disney's streaming services, including Hulu and Disney+, will not get impacted, the company said.

Ruvic/Illustration

July 15 (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) plans to raise the monthly subscription fee for its sports streaming platform ESPN+ by $3 a month, a 43% hike, the company said on Friday.

The price of an ESPN+ subscription will rise to $9.99 per month starting Aug. 23, while the cost of an annual subscription will go up to $99.99 from $69.99. Subscribers will be officially notified next week.

However, the fee for those getting a bundle of all of Disney's streaming services, including Hulu and Disney+, will not get impacted, the company said.

Shares of Disney rose nearly 4% in afternoon trading.

ESPN+, which offers more than 22,000 live events, including top leagues across many sports, last raised its monthly and annual subscription fees in the United States in July last year. (https://reut.rs/3PiCbRG)

Over the last year and half, Disney said it has added expanded National Football League (NFL) rights, expanded its rights to Wimbledon and the Australian Open, renewed rights for the popular FA Cup and more on ESPN+.

More

Disney's ESPN+ to hike monthly subscription by $3 | Reuters

Below, why a “green energy” economy may not be possible, and if it is, it won’t be quick and it will be very inflationary, setting off a new long-term commodity Supercycle. Probably the largest seen so far.

The “New Energy Economy”: An Exercise in Magical Thinking

https://media4.manhattan-institute.org/sites/default/files/R-0319-MM.pdf

Mines, Minerals, and "Green" Energy: A Reality Check

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/mines-minerals-and-green-energy-reality-check

"An Environmental Disaster": An EV Battery Metals Crunch Is On The Horizon As The Industry Races To Recycle

by Tyler Durden Monday, Aug 02, 2021 - 08:40 PM

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/environmental-disaster-ev-battery-metals-crunch-horizon-industry-races-recycle

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

With Covid-19 starting to become only endemic, this section is close to coming to its end.

The BA.5 Wave Is What COVID Normal Looks Like

The endless churn of variants may not stop anytime soon, unless we do something about it.

By Katherine J. Wu  JULY 14, 2022

After two-plus years of erupting into distinguishable peaks, the American coronavirus-case curve has a new topography: a long, never-ending plateau. Waves are now so frequent that they’re colliding and uplifting like tectonic plates, the valleys between them filling with virological rubble.

With cases quite high and still drastically undercounted, and hospitalizations lilting up, this lofty mesa is a disconcerting place to be. The subvariants keep coming. Immunity is solid against severe disease, but porous to infection and the resulting chaos. Some people are getting the virus for the first time, others for the second, third, or more, occasionally just weeks apart. And we could remain at this elevation for some time.

Coronavirus test-positivity trends, for instance, look quite bad. A rate below 5 percent might have once indicated a not-too-bad level of infection, but “I wake up every morning and look … and it’s 20 percent again,” says Pavitra Roychoudhury, a viral genomicist at the University of Washington who’s tracking SARS-CoV-2 cases in her community. “The last time we were below 10 percent was the first week of April.” It’s not clear, Roychoudhury told me, when the next downturn might be.

Part of this relentless churn is about the speed of the virus. SARS-CoV-2, repped by the Omicron clan, is now spewing out globe-sweeping subvariants at a blistering clip. In the United States, the fall of BA.2 and BA.2.12.1 have overlapped so tightly with the rise of BA.5 that the peaks of their surges have blended into one. And a new, ominous cousin, BA.2.75, is currently popping in several parts of the world.

At the same time, our countermoves are sluggish at best. Pathogens don’t spread or transform without first inhabiting hosts. But with masks, distancing, travel restrictions, and other protective measures almost entirely vanished, “we’ve given the virus every opportunity to keep doing this,” says David Martinez, a viral immunologist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

More

The BA.5 Wave Is What COVID Normal Looks Like - The Atlantic

NY Times Coronavirus Vaccine Trackerhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

Regulatory Focus COVID-19 vaccine trackerhttps://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

Some other useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Centers for Disease Control Coronavirus

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

The Spectator Covid-19 data tracker (UK)

https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/national

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

No technology update today. Today, another inflation warning from one of the best informed experts on the planet. But is anyone in the District of Crooks listening?

Goldman CEO David Solomon says inflation is 'deeply entrenched' in the global economy

July 18, 2022

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Monday that inflation is deeply embedded in the global economy and it's unclear whether the situation will improve later this year.

"We see inflation deeply entrenched in the economy, and what's unusual about this particular period is that both demand and supply are being affected by exogenous events, namely the pandemic and the war on Ukraine," Solomon told analysts during a call to discuss second-quarter results.

Solomon, who leads one of Wall Street's top advisors to corporations, then laid out one of the central debates occurring in markets right now: It is known that inflation is at multidecade highs; but how long will it persist?

"My dialogue with CEOs operating big global businesses, they tell me that they continue to see persistent inflation in their supply chains," Solomon said. "Our economists meanwhile say there are signs that inflation will move lower in the second half of the year. The answer is uncertain and we will all be watching it very closely."

As central banks around the world continue to tighten financial conditions to combat inflation, already volatile markets across asset classes will remain choppy, he said.

The chief concern is that the campaign to fight inflation will begin to take a toll on both "corporate confidence and also consumer activity in the economy," Solomon told an analyst.

The uncertainty has Solomon operating his New York-based bank cautiously, including by examining its spending plans. The firm has opted to slow its rate of new hires, cut the professional fees it pays and will likely reinstate annual performance reviews for staff this year, according to CFO Denis Coleman.

"I expect there's going to be more volatility and there's going to be more uncertainty and in light of the current environment we will manage all our resources cautiously," Solomon said.

“I have left orders to be awakened at any time during national emergency, even if I'm in a cabinet meeting.”

Ronald Reagan.

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