As
I write, tragedy is unfolding in France in a new developing war between fascist,
militant, medieval Islam and western society. That is likely to be next week’s big
developing story. I suspect the west will have to now take on sorting out the
Levant. I suspect the possibility of more such attacks may fuel a drive for
internet shopping this Christmas, to say nothing about fuelling Europe’s voters
to the hard right. Reality returns in a most cruel way. The west is waking up
to the consequences fanatical Islam. We offer our condolences and prayers for
all suffering from this latest atrocity.
In the markets, the commodities
depression is now starting to infect stocks. The events in Paris are all too
likely to add to the return to reality ahead.
Europe Stocks Have Worst Week in Two Months on Growth Concerns
November
13, 2015 — 7:08 AM GMT Updated on November 13, 2015 — 5:19 PM GMT
Worse-than-forecast
data on euro-area growth, coupled with lingering concern about a Federal
Reserve rate increase, dragged European stocks to a three-week low.
The Stoxx
Europe 600 Index fell 0.8 percent at the close of trading in London, with
three-fourths of its shares down, as data showed euro-area gross domestic
product in the third quarter increased less than economists had forecast. The
measure lost 2.7 percent this week, the most since the beginning of September.
“There
are still ongoing concerns about slowing economic growth, and there are other
worries about more QE in Europe versus a potential rate increase in U.S., which
creates a dichotomy,” said Patrick Spencer, equities vice chairman at Robert W.
Baird & Co. in London. “The higher dollar, higher rates and slower growth
make investors worry, and the numbers in China haven’t been so great
lately.”
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Wall Street drops, posts worst week since August
After the bell, U.S. stock index futures hit session lows in light volume, with market participants citing concerns over reports of deadly attacks in Paris.
"The geopolitical aspect is always out there, and anything that brings that back into the headlines will pull the buy orders fairly quickly," said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, a Toledo, Ohio-based investment advisory firm.
The three major U.S. indexes ended the week down more than 3 percent, firmly putting the brakes on a fast rally that began in October.
Dow component Cisco (CSCO.O) dropped 5.8 percent after it gave a flimsy forecast, citing a slowdown in orders and weak spending outside the United States.
It was the second-biggest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, weighing on shares of tech heavyweights, including Apple (AAPL.O) and Facebook (FB.O).
Retailers were hit by disappointing reports from department store chains. Nordstrom (JWN.N) lowered its full-year forecast on Thursday, spooking investors already on edge after Macy's (M.N) cut its forecast on Wednesday.
In addition, data showed U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in October, suggesting a slowdown in consumer spending.
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We are in for one of nature’s great treats.
Will the Pacific El Nino beat the Siberian snow theory? Two of nature’s great unstoppable forces are
about to go head to head for the outcome of the coming winter over much of
North America. Will Boston and New York freeze again, or will El Nino turn Central
Park into the Everglades? Do New Englanders need to buy snow shovels, this
winter or Panama hats? And just what will it do to the US economy and consumer
spending?
Below Bloomberg covers the coming natural contest.
In the gambling dens on Wall Street you can probably place a leveraged bet on
the outcome. That’s capitalism for you, 21st century style.
For a Warm Winter in New York, El Nino Has to Trump Siberia Snow
November
13, 2015 — 10:00 AM GMT
The snow in Siberia has piled up again, and according to one theory this
means cold and ice are on the way for New York and other parts of the eastern
U.S. That is, if the snow can wrestle El Nino into submission.Before the match starts with El Nino, here’s a recap of how the whole winter outlook thing works: It all starts when a large expanse of Eurasia is covered by snow by the end of October, said Judah Cohen, the theory’s author and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Lexington, Massachusetts.
That creates a pool of cold air and strong high pressure over Siberia. The result is a chain reaction that eventually ends up with a shift in the Arctic Oscillation, a difference in pressures over the polar region, and people in Manhattan risking frostbite if they leave their faces uncovered. At least, that’s the theory.
Last year, it didn’t exactly work out. Despite the second-largest Siberian snowcover on record for the end of October, the AO didn’t shift.
“The snow did a great job predicting the temperature but it didn’t do a good job with the AO,” Cohen said.
Todd Crawford, principal scientist at WSI in Andover, Massachusetts, thinks the theory is good, “grounded in theoretical, observational, and modeling research.”
“But the theory is based on the AO, which they missed badly last year,” he said. “They got the temps right for the wrong reason in the U.S., and missed badly in Europe and Asia. Having said that, one bad year does not disprove the theory.”
Cohen said he doesn’t accept the idea that he got the right answer for the wrong reason. Many pieces fell into place even if the Arctic Oscillation didn’t react as predicted. After looking at the details from last winter, “I feel better about what happened,” he said.
However, as he looks forward, Cohen said the winter of 2015-2016 will be different from past years for one big reason -- there’s a strong El Nino in the equatorial Pacific and it’s playing havoc with weather patterns all over the world. It may even trump the Siberian snow effect.
“It’s still a huge wild card,” Cohen said.
Many forecasters believe the El Nino will mean a mild winter for the northern and eastern U.S. in particular. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center’s outlook through January calls for a mild start to the season for the northern part of the country. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is also predicting a milder winter than 2014-2015, when record snow fell on Boston.
“In this winter’s case, the El Nino is way too strong,” said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland. The theory “would be interesting to talk about in other winters, but not this one.”
Cohen, who hasn’t released his own forecast for the winter, keeps looking at the snow across Eurasia.
October ended with 12.67 million square kilometers (4.89 million square miles) of snow in the region, the third-most in the past 10 years, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.
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Next
a reminder from Britain’s recent forecasting of what can go seriously wrong.
According to the doomsters against Brexit, a century of barbecue summers will
befall Great Britain if GB ditches the EUSSR.
As millions of Britons holiday at home after that promise of a 'barbecue summer', how did the Met Office get it so wrong?
By Daily Mail Reporter
The
campers paddling between flooded tents didn't need to be told. Neither did the
families huddling for shelter beside deserted beaches.
But
yesterday the weathermen officially admitted that their prediction of a
'barbecue summer' had been hopelessly wrong.
And the
bad news for millions of holidaymakers, many of whom had opted to stay in
Britain on the strength of the optimistic forecast, is that after a soggy July,
August will be no better.
As the
Met Office rather sheepishly announced that it had 'revised' its seasonal
forecast, the tourism industry was asking how the experts got things so badly
wrong.
There
were even fears that disappointment over the third wet summer in a row could
put some families off British holidays for good.
It was in
April that the Met Office proclaimed the chances were 'odds-on for a barbecue
summer'. Rather like Michael Fish in October 1987, after he mockingly dismissed
claims that a hurricane was on its way, the aptly-renamed 'Wet Office' was
forced to confess its shortcomings yesterday.
'Seasonal
forecasting is still a new science,' it said in defence. 'It's something we are
still building on.'
----At the time the chief meteorologist, Ewen McCallum, said there was a 50 per cent chance of above- average temperatures and a 30 per cent chance of average temperatures. The chances of the summer being a washout were around 30 per cent, he declared.
But after
a short-lived heatwave in June, July saw almost a month's worth of rain falling
in the first two weeks alone.
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