Baltic Dry Index. 560 -19 Brent Crude 44.98
LIR Gold Target in 2019: $30,000. Revised due to QE programs.
It could turn into a very bad week for the markets. The Moslem atrocity in Paris will likely weigh on markets, encouraging a risk-off stance at least for a while, while the news on Sunday of Japan dropping into a new recession, adds to fears that the global economy has hit stall speed or worse.
Stocks Fall With Euro on Paris Attacks as Haven Trade Lifts Gold
November 15, 2015 — 5:32 PM GMT Updated on November 16, 2015 — 5:41 AM
GMT
The euro fell and Asian stocks slid to a six-week low as investors responded
to Europe’s worst terror attack in a decade by shifting out of riskier assets.
Demand for havens boosted gold, government bonds and the dollar.Europe’s common currency weakened 0.5 percent against the greenback as the violence in Paris on Friday sparked concern that geopolitical tensions will hurt trade and consumer confidence. China led losses in Asian equity markets after authorities restricted the use of borrowed money to buy shares, while index futures in the U.S. and the U.K. dropped. Gold advanced the most in a month and Treasuries climbed for a fifth day. Oil rallied.
France’s air force bombed Islamic State’s stronghold in Syria as officials said the assault on Paris was directed from the Middle Eastern nation. The attacks came at a fraught time for global markets, with the Federal Reserve preparing its first interest-rate increase since 2006 and key economic data from Japan to the European Union to China all trailing estimates.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-15/euro-yen-may-rise-as-investors-seek-havens-after-paris-attacks
Japan relapses into recession in July-Sept, blow to Abenomics
Japan's economy slid back into recession in July-September as
uncertainty over the overseas outlook hurt business investment, keeping
policymakers under pressure to deploy new stimulus measures to support a
fragile recovery.
A rebound in private consumption and exports offered some hope the
world's third-largest economy is emerging from the doldrums, despite slowing
Chinese demand and the pain households are feeling from rising imported food
prices.
Still, many analysts expect the economy to grow only moderately in the
current quarter as companies remain hesitant to use their record profits for
wage hikes, underscoring the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in pulling
Japan sustainably out of stagnation with his "Abenomics" stimulus
policies.
"A big drop in inventory was the largest factor behind a
third-quarter contraction. Weak capital spending was a concern, but excluding
these factors, the GDP figures were not so bad," said Takeshi Minami,
chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
The world's third-largest economy shrank an annualized 0.8 percent in
July-September, more than a median market forecast for a 0.2 percent
contraction, government data showed on Monday.
That followed a revised 0.7 percent contraction in April-June, which was
the first decline in three quarters.
More
QE forever and ZIRP and NIRP are now wreaking havoc in the leading treasury markets. Nothing good comes from this development if it stays around for long. Our central banksters are fast losing control of the markets they rig.
Debt Market Distortions Go Global as Nothing Makes Sense Anymore
November 15, 2015 — 5:00 PM GMT Updated on November 16, 2015 — 3:08 AM
GMT
Something very strange is happening in the world of fixed income.
Across developed markets, the conventional relationship between
government debt -- long considered the risk-free benchmark -- and other assets
has been turned upside-down.
Nowhere is that more evident than in the U.S., where lending to the government should be far safer than speculating on the direction of interest rates with Wall Street banks. But these days, it’s just the opposite as a growing number of Treasuries yield more than interest-rate swaps. The same phenomenon has emerged in the U.K., while the “swap spread” as it’s known among bond-market types, has shrunk to the smallest on record in Australia.
Part of it simply has to do with the fact that investors are pushing up yields on Treasuries -- which guide rates for just about everything -- as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise borrowing costs for the first time in a decade. But in many ways, it reflects the unintended consequences of post-crisis rules designed to make the financial system stronger. Those changes have made it cheaper and safer to use derivatives to hedge risk, and more onerous and expensive for bond dealers to make markets in the safest securities.
“These kinds of dislocations can be expected to grow over time,” said Aaron Kohli, a fixed-income strategist at Bank of Montreal, one of 22 primary dealers that trade directly with the Fed. “The market structure and regulatory structure has evolved in a period with very low volatility. Once you take that away, it’s not clear what the secondary implications of that will be.”
It’s hard to overstate how illogical it is when swap spreads are inverted. That’s because it suggests that governments are less creditworthy than the very financial institutions they bailed out during the credit crisis just seven years ago. And as the Fed prepares to end its near-zero rate policy, those distortions are coming to the fore.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-15/debt-market-distortions-go-global-as-nothing-makes-sense-anymore
We end for the day with new problems hitting at crooked “Dirty Diesel” Volkswagen. They now have found emissions problems with the 2016 model year, petrol engines. More news from VW is due out later today.
VW Tags 430,000 New Cars With Implausible Carbon Dioxide Ratings
November 14, 2015 — 12:14 PM GMTVolkswagen AG said 430,000 of its new cars had “implausible” carbon dioxide ratings as it continues talks with regulators in an attempt to address the emissions cheating crisis.
The figure means more than half of the roughly 800,000 affected vehicles were from the current 2016 model year. Volkswagen is still investigating previous model years and what the correct CO2 ratings should be, the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company said in a statement late Friday.
Meanwhile, the carmaker will present German authorities Monday with a fix for 1.6-liter diesel engines fitted with software to cheat tests for polluting nitrogen oxides, according to a person familiar with the plans, who asked not to be named because they aren’t public. The proposal isn’t as complex or expensive as Volkswagen initially feared and could be used across Europe if it’s approved in Germany, the person said.
Volkswagen is grappling for a way through a crisis that has engulfed the company since it first admitted to cheating on emissions in September. The carmaker will need to recall as many as 11 million diesel vehicles worldwide and admitted earlier this month that another 800,000 cars had unexplained inconsistencies in CO2 output. By 2017, the price tag on the emissions scandal will probably reach about 25 billion euros ($26.8 billion), Barclays Plc estimated on Friday.
More
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-14/vw-tags-430-000-new-cars-with-implausible-carbon-dioxide-ratings
At the Comex silver depositories Friday
final figures were: Registered 43.34 Moz, Eligible 118.69 Moz, Total 162.03
Moz.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally
doubled over.
Below, big trouble
in the international shipping industry. Although The Telegraph forgets that “for
ever” is a very long time. Shipping
suggests a hard landing is developing in the global economy. 2016 could turn
out to be a very rocky year. Is the Fed still likely to raise their key
interest rate next month?
Shipping industry braced for storm to blow long and hard
The global maritime industry is enduring hardships likely to affect it for ever
The shipping industry is battening down the hatches for a global economic storm that could last years.The slowdown in China, Europe’s anaemic recovery and the failure of other emerging markets to live up to growth expectations is having a devastating effect on the global maritime industry, which carries 65pc of the world’s trade.
One of the hardest-hit parts of the industry is container shipping, the movement of the ubiquitous steel boxes measured in 20ft equivalent units (TEUs) that transformed the industry in the 1950s by speeding up and simplifying international trade.
The strength of the headwinds faced was underlined recently when Maersk, the world’s biggest shipping line, reported a shocking set of financial results. Profits last quarter crashed 61pc to $264m (£174m) and revenue dropped 15pc to $6bn.
As a result of the poor performance, the Danish company announced plans to axe 4,000 of its 23,000 shore-based staff.
“It’s as bad as it’s been since the financial crash,” said Jonathan Roach, container market analyst at shipbroker Braemar. “This week I saw an 8,500-TEU container ship being chartered at an all-time low and a 4,250-TEU Panamax ship going for $6,300 a day, the lowest rate since 2009.”
It’s not just container shipping that has been hit. The Baltic Dry index, a benchmark that tracks the cost of shipping bulk raw materials such as coal, steel and iron ore has tumbled to a near 30-year low.
Prior to the crash, growth in global trade pushed up freight rates and shipping lines were ordering more vessels to meet demand. Events triggered by Lehman Brothers’ collapse changed that. Trade fell and freight rates collapsed.
However, with ships that had been ordered entering the global fleet, capacity rose, yet without enough cargo for them to transport, rates remained suppressed.
----The slowdown in the Chinese economy has hit the shipping industry hard because of the impact it has on global trade. The country has a massive demand for raw materials, both for its industrialisation and to feed its manufacturers, who then ship their goods to Western markets.
----It wasn’t supposed to be like this. At the start of the year, there were high hopes that the fortunes of the shipping industry would be on the brink of turning around.
However, the recovery failed to take place and Drewry, the shipping
consultancy, has halved its projections for this year’s container trade growth
to 2.2pc.
Clarkson, another consultancy, has revised its forecast down to 3.7pc. Compounding
the problem is a 7.1pc increase in container ship capacity Clarkson is
expecting this year, taking it to the fleet’s capacity of 21.9m TEU.
The opening of the widened Panama Canal next year will only add to their
troubles, as demand for ships previously too large to fit through the waterway
now have new routes open to them.
Morehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/11996019/Shipping-industry-braced-for-storm-to-blow-long-and-hard.html
Solar & Related Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this new section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards? DC? A quantum computer next?Electric vehicles beat gasoline cars in cradle-to-grave emissions study
November 12 2015
A cradle-to-grave analysis finds driving an electric car in California creates less greenhouse gas emissions than even the most efficient gasoline vehicle.A car running on electricity -- even when powerplant emissions are considered -- produces pollution equivalent to a theoretical conventional car with fuel economy of 87 miles per gallon, according to the study, released Thursday by the Union of Concerned Scientists.
The organization tallied all the greenhouse gas emissions from every aspect of auto manufacturing and operations and found that electric vehicles beat their gasoline counterparts in every region of the U.S.
They did best -- putting out the pollution of a gas vehicle that gets
135 mpg -- in upstate New York, which is rich with renewable energy resources.
Electric cars offered the least pollution reduction -- the equivalent of
a 35 to 36 mpg car -- in the central U.S., states such as Colorado, Kansas and
Missouri, because so much of the electricity in that region comes from fossil
fuels such as coal.
“Although a battery electric vehicle has no tailpipe emissions, the total
global warming emissions from operating it are not insignificant; they depend
on the sources of the electricity that charge the vehicle’s batteries and on
the efficiency of the vehicle,” said Rachael Nealer, a UCS scientist and the
report’s author.Nationally, electric cars produce less than half the global warming emissions of comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, even when factoring in the extra pollution over internal combustion vehicles produced manufacturing the cars -- mainly from the production of the big lithium-ion battery packs, the study said.
Nealer said the study demonstrates that electric vehicles will be essential to achieving the deep emissions reductions by mid-century needed to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
Consumers can compare the emissions profiles of electric cars and plug-in hybrids by model and Zip Code on this online tool.
Nealer’s report examined emissions from automobile and battery manufacturing and other factors such as how electricity is made and how much gets used up in the transmission to factories and electric cars.
The report took into account emissions that come from oil extraction, refining and transportation to gas stations.
More
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished October
DJIA: +31 Down. NASDAQ:
+125 Down. SP500: +53 Down.
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