Baltic
Dry Index. 1229 +70
Brent Crude 73.10
Spot Gold 2862 US 2 Year Yield 3.99 -0.08
US Federal Debt. 36.547 trillion!
The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help.
Ronald Reagan.
In London on Sunday, the UK and much of Europe promised peacekeeping troops and planes to be stationed in Ukraine after a ceasefire is agreed. WW3, nuclear WW1, gets a step closer.
In the stock casinos, it’s tariff week starting tomorrow on Canada and Mexico, plus another 10 percent tariff on China.
On Friday, the latest US jobs report though it’s unlikely to reflect any of President Trump’s DOGE Federal firings.
A USA Crypto Reserve is announced.
All in all, an uncertain week for
stocks, bonds and commodities.
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rise as investors await clarity on
Trump’s tariff plans
Updated Mon, Mar 3 2025 11:24 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Monday as investors
awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to impose impose tariffs
this week on key trading partners.
U.S. Commerce Secretary
Howard Lutnick reportedly told Fox News on Sunday that the exact
tariff that will be levied against Mexico and Canada starting Tuesday
is still “fluid,” which means it could be lower than the proposed 25%. He added
that the additional 10% duty on China imports is “set.”
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 was up 1.36%,
while the broader Topix index advanced 1.27%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 1.33%, while
Mainland China’s CSI300 was up 0.44%.
Taiwan’s Taiex index was down 1.68%, falling to its
lowest level since early February.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was trading
0.5% higher.
The country’s S&P Global manufacturing purchasing
manager’s index reading for February came in at 50.4, similar to the previous
month’s 50.6 reading.
Elsewhere, China’s Caixin/S&P Global
manufacturing purchasing manager’s index reading for February came in
at 50.8, higher than the 50.3 estimated by Reuters and January’s 50.1
reading.
Investors will be keeping a watch on Indian stocks
after the South Asian economy expanded 6.2% from a year ago in its third fiscal quarter ended
December, recovering from a seven-quarter low. The print is higher than
the revised 5.6% growth in the July
to September quarter.
South Korean markets were closed for a public
holiday.
In U.S., the three major averages closed
higher on Friday, after a volatile week and monthly losses in February.
The S&P
500 added 1.59% on Friday to close at 5,954.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
601.41 points, or 1.39%, closing at 43,840.91. The Nasdaq Composite climbed
1.63% to settle at 18,847.28.
Friday’s trading session saw a brief pullback over
the heightened geopolitical tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukraine
President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy clashed over
differing views of how to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Stocks rallied sharply into Friday’s close, partly
because of index rebalancing and other technical-buying sources.
Asia
markets live: China manufacturing purchasing manager's index
CNBC Daily Open: Trump clashes on foreign policy, wields economic
threat
Published Sun, Mar 2 2025 8:23 PM EST
To an economist, it might seem questionable for a
country to impose tariffs on its biggest trading partners, especially when its
economy is showing signs of shrinking, the stock market sagging, prices
remaining stubbornly high and consumer sentiment downbeat.
That’s because tariffs are “a tax on goods”, as
Warren Buffett describes them. In other words, they generally increase the cost
of imported goods. Companies would either try absorbing the expense, which
means a drop in revenue, or pass it on to consumers, possibly triggering an
upward shock in prices.
But U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on
Canada and Mexico are scheduled to go into effect Tuesday. His administration
is also insisting such levies will not increase inflation, while encouraging
allies to introduce tariffs on China as well.
There has been a lot of talk about U.S.
exceptionalism last year, in reference to its economic and financial markets.
With the country’s slowdown in both aspects so far in 2025 — as well as its
abrupt pivot away from European Union allies in foreign policy regarding Russia
and Ukraine — the theme remains in 2025.
CNBC
Daily Open: Trump's foreign policy clash and economic threat
Trump announces strategic crypto reserve including bitcoin, Solana,
XRP and more
Published Sun, Mar 2 2025 12:19 PM EST Updated Sun,
Mar 2 2025 5:55 PM EST
Cryptocurrencies rallied on Sunday after
President Donald Trump announced
the creation of a strategic crypto reserve for the United States that will
include bitcoin and ether, as well as XRP, Solana’s SOL token and
Cardano’s ADA.
“A U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical
industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration, which is
why my Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working
Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and
ADA,” he said in a post on Truth Social. “I will make sure the U.S. is
the Crypto Capital of the World.”
“And, obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable
Cryptocurrencies, will be at the heart of the Reserve,” he said in a follow-up post. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”
XRP surged 33% after the announcement while the token
tied to Solana jumped 25%. Cardano’s coin soared more than 60%.
Bitcoin rose 10% to $94,343.82, after dipping to
a three-month
low under $80,000 on Friday. Ether, which has suffered some of the
biggest losses in crypto year-to-date, gained 13%.
Trump is hosting the first White House Crypto Summit
on Friday, and investors will be watching closely for more clues about the
direction of the reserve plans.
This is the first time Trump has specified his
support for a crypto “reserve” versus a “stockpile.” While the former assumes
actively buying crypto in regular installments, a stockpile would simply not
sell any of the crypto currently held by the U.S. government.
More
Trump
announces strategic crypto reserve including bitcoin, Solana, XRP and more
Next, in other news.
China’s factory activity growth hits 3-month high in February, as
millions return to work after holidays
Published Sun, Mar 2 2025 8:53 PM EST
China’s factory activity expanded at its fastest pace
in three months to 50.8 in February, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, as millions
of migrant workers returned to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday.
The seasonally adjusted Caixin/S&P Global
manufacturing purchasing managers’ index beat Reuters poll forecast of 50.3,
also accelerating from 50.1 in January and 50.5 last December.
The private-sector manufacturing PMI has stayed above
the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction since last October.
This private survey reading on Monday followed the official manufacturing PMI released on Saturday,
which also showed that China’s February factory activity expanded at its
fastest pace since November.
The official PMI rose to 50.2 in February from 49.1 in January, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The
non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also climbed
to 50.4 from 50.2 in January.
The figures came as economists flagged that fresh
U.S. tariffs could pressure the country’s manufacturing activity — which
accounted for a quarter of China’s GDP last year — and dent the role of exports
as a key driver of growth this year.
In February, new export orders grew at the fastest
rate since last April, according to the Monday survey, as “demand strengthened
from foreign clients.”
The stronger external demand for Chinese manufactured
goods could be due to U.S. importers continuing to front-run tariffs in
anticipation of even higher levies, Zichun, Huang, China economist at Capital
Economics, said in a note.
More
Skoda 'to axe 6,000 jobs amid expensive roll out of electric
vehicles'
2 March 2025
Around 6,000 people could lose their jobs as Czech
car making giant Skoda makes drastic cuts to keep up with an expensive electric
vehicle rollout.
The car manufacturer hopes to boost their electrical
vehicles sales by eight per cent, amid a global drop in demand.
The costly roll out of electric cars could see
penny-pinching across the business, with up to 15 per cent of their 41,000
employees globally out of jobs.
A worldwide lack of demand has hit the electrical
vehicle industry and in November the boss of Ford's UK arm warned that
Britain's car industry is in crisis because of insufficient demand.
But Skoda is looking to continue its 'electric
evolution' by selling a fully electric Octavia compact hatchback.
The Czech manufacturer already boasts a fleet of
fully electric vehicles, including the Enyaq and Enyaq Coupe SUVs, and Elroq
crossover.
Skoda CEO Klaus Zellmer told Automobilwoche, a German automotive newspaper, that job cuts will
occur because of natural fluctuation.
He said it would 'do Skoda good' to introduce another
battery electric vehicle and the Octavia could be a top seller.
Skoda has been contacted for comment.
News of the potential job losses come days after an
Audi mega factory in Belgium closed, as tanking demand for electric vehicles
saw 3,000 jobs cut.
The closing Audi factory in Brussels was billed as
the 'cradle' of the German carmaker's electric drive.
Audi first said it would restructure the plant in
July, with suggestions that it was considering an early end to production there
sparking huge protests in the following months.
Audi said a global fall in demand for high-end
electric SUVs had tanked demand for its Q8 e-tron, to which the site was
exclusively dedicated.
Production boss Gerd Walker said the closure was
'painful' and it was the 'toughest decision' he has made in his career.
In the UK a Renault and Dacia showroom in Doncaster
will shut.
And in November, Luton's 120-year-old Vauxhall
factory announced plans to close, with Stellantis blaming government EV sales
targets for the decision to shutter the factory.
The same month, Lisa Brankin, the chairman and
managing director of Ford UK, called for the government to urgently introduce
'incentives' such as tax breaks to convince drivers to switch away from petrol
and diesel.
More
Skoda 'to axe
6,000 jobs amid expensive roll out of electric vehicles'
Walmart CEO warns food prices are causing 'frustration and pain'
Jaewon Kang, Bloomberg News on Feb 28, 2025
The chief executive officer of Walmart Inc. said
American consumers are showing signs of stress as food prices remain stubbornly
high.
Some shoppers are running out of money before the end
of the month and turning to smaller pack sizes for consumer goods, Chief
Executive Officer Doug McMillon told about 1,000 executives at the Economic
Club of Chicago on Thursday evening. While prices for products such as apparel
are now near pre-pandemic levels, food prices are still elevated.
Walmart is seeing “stress behaviors” among
budget-conscious consumers, “and we worry about that,” McMillon said. “You can
see that the money runs out before the month is gone, you can see that people
are buying smaller pack sizes at the end of the month.”
He also noted that overall consumer behavior has
remained consistent over the past year or so. Shoppers are being more selective
and prioritizing value purchases.
Higher prices for everything from beef and eggs to
fuel present a challenge for retailers including Walmart, which has become one
of the world’s largest companies by offering “everyday low prices.” The company
recently projected lower-than-expected profit for the current fiscal year while
citing uncertainty related to consumer behavior as well as economic and
geopolitical conditions.
Overall U.S. inflation in January jumped by the most
since August 2023, driven in part by the cost of eggs. With bird flu killing
millions of chickens, egg prices surged more than 15% from a month earlier, the
biggest advance since 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
More
Finally, that Trump-Zelensky meeting in context.
Approx. 23 minutes.
Barrister REACTS - Zelenskyy, Trump
& Vance Major Fallout - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Trump
tariffs & Elon Musk's DOGE: US recession risk rising! Who'll save stock
market?
28
February 2025
The
US President Donald Trump speaks his mind. He wants to 'Make America Great
Again'. Elon Musk too has big task at hands -- saving trillions via spending
cuts. But the knight in shining armor could eventually be the US Federal
Reserve. Will the all-powerful US central bank oblige?
Stock
markets globally are fearing that if US tariffs and DOGE dominate, US recession
risks may escalate, triggering a global risk off. US tariffs may become a
hodgepodge or trigger retaliatory actions from trade partners. Even DOGE could
lead Trump into political hot waters if job cuts mount, Nuvama Institutional
Equities warned.
On
the other hand, the asset monetisation plan is still in nascent stage. If
pursued, these policies would have meaningful implications, the domestic
brokerage said.
If
the Trump administration pursues higher tariffs, it will risk retaliation and a
potential global trade war. This could strengthen the dollar and push US bond
yields higher, which would not only be a double squeeze on the already weak
global economy but also dampen US consumer sentiments, Nuvama said.
If
Elon Musk is even half-successful in achieving his "rather
outlandish" $2 trillion target for spending cuts, Nuvama thinks recession
risks could escalate. After all, the government sector has been instrumental in
shoring up the US economy of late. In 2023 and 2024, the US government
accounted for 25 per cent of new job additions—a sharp ramp up from 5–6 per
cent prevailing in the pre-pandemic phase, Nuvama noted.
"Government
job additions accounted for nearly 25 per cent of total NFP additions in the
last one year (versus 5–6 per cent norm). Similarly, government spending is 4
per cent of GDP, higher than pre-pandemic. If recession risks escalate, it
could create a global risk off. UST yields shall fall, but dollar may rise amid
risk aversion before the Fed’s aggressive easing reverses the trend,"
Nuvama said.
The
asset monetisation plan could take multiple forms such as gold monetisation --
revaluing gold in the Fed’s balance sheet and transferring a large dividend to
the US government or debt swap in which foreign countries swap their
interest-bearing US debt with zero coupon long-term US debt in return for
continued US security cover.
"Whatever
it may be, it would constitute an expansionary reset, which shall weaken the
USD significantly, lower US bond yields and trigger a global risk on,"
Nuvama said.
Nuvama
said it is unclear which policies will dominate and how much headway Trump/Musk
will make with regard to those policies. Yet, what would be equally critical is
shall the Fed complement fiscal actions.
"For
example, if DOGE successfully cuts fiscal spending materially, the Fed must
offset fiscal squeeze with proactive monetary easing; else recession risks
shall mount, and the deficit may indeed expand. Similarly, if the asset
monetisation is implemented, which shall be expansionary and potentially
inflationary all else equal; the Fed must not offset it with further
tightening," Nuvama said.
The
brokerage said it is a tall ask as US core inflation is proving sticky and
unemployment is near record lows. Nuvama said it is critical that the Fed is on
board when these plans are put into practice. Else, it will only add to the
uncertainty.
Trump tariffs
& Elon Musk's DOGE: US recession risk rising! Who'll save stock market?
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
Long-Term Effects Of Covid-19: Studies Reveal Ongoing Health Risks Even
After Recovery
1 March 2025
New Delhi: While the
Covid-19 pandemic is over, its effects continue to haunt a large majority of
people infected by the infectious disease. Two separate studies have shown that
several neurological and respiratory disorders as well as other health complications
continue to affect people who were hospitalised with the disease.
In the first study, a
team of researchers from France studied data from nearly 64,000 French
residents who were followed for up to 30 months. Their findings, published in
the journal Infectious Diseases, showed that patients who were hospitalised due
to Covid have experienced a higher rate of deaths from any cause -- 5,218 per
100,000 people.
In the 30 months
monitored, these people were more likely to be hospitalised for any reason. And
they were particularly at high risk for neurological, psychiatric,
cardiovascular, and respiratory problems.
While there was no
difference between men and women in the risk of hospitalisation, women were
hospitalised more due to psychiatric problems. Elderly over 70 years of age
were also at high risk of hospitalisation due to organ-specific disorders.
Notably, the risks
remained high for up to 30 months for neurological and respiratory disorders,
chronic kidney failure, and diabetes.
“Even 30 months after
hospitalisation, Covid-19 patients remained at an increased risk of death or
severe health complications, reflecting the long-lasting, wider consequences of
the disease on people’s lives,” said Dr Charles Burdet, an Infectious Diseases
specialist, at Universite Paris Cite.
“These findings are a
stark reminder of the far-reaching impact of Covid, which extends far beyond
the initial infection,” added lead author Dr Sarah Tubiana, infectious diseases
expert, at the Clinical Investigation Center at Bichat Hospital (Paris).
The second study, led by
US researchers from the universities of Rush, Yale, and Washington, followed
3,663 participants for three years.
Their findings, published
in The Lancet Regional Health, long Covid patients had worse physical and
mental health outcomes up to three years after initial infection.
While the majority of
those with long Covid did not resolve, vaccination was associated with better
outcomes, the researchers said.
Long-Term Effects Of Covid-19: Studies Reveal Ongoing Health Risks Even
After Recovery
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
S Korea's new
lithium battery rules on planes highlight growing risk for aviation
28
February 2025
SEOUL
(Reuters) - South Korea tightened rules on carrying lithium batteries on planes
from Saturday, highlighting a growing risk to flights worldwide from the
batteries used in cellphones and e-cigarettes which can malfunction to produce
smoke, fire or extreme heat.
Last
year three incidents a fortnight of overheating lithium batteries on planes
were recorded globally by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, compared to
just under one a week in 2018.
Aviation
has long recognised the increasingly used batteries as a safety concern, and
rules are periodically tightened in response to accidents.
From
Saturday, passengers on South Korean airlines should keep power banks and
e-cigarettes on their person and not in overhead cabin bins. Devices should not
be charged on board, and battery quantity and strength limits will be enforced.
Korean
authorities said the measures were in response to public anxiety about fires
after an Air Busan plane was consumed in flames in January while waiting to
take off.
Investigators
have not yet determined the cause of the fire, but a preliminary investigation
statement on Thursday said it started in a cabin overhead locker after
boarding.
All
170 passengers and six crew were evacuated before the aircraft was destroyed.
The fire was detected around 20 minutes after the delayed flight had originally
been scheduled to depart.
"Existing
cabin crew firefighting procedures have been demonstrated to be effective for
all (lithium battery) incidents which have occurred in-flight. However if such
an incident occurs while on the ground, the safest option is to evacuate the
aircraft," a spokesperson for the International Air Transport Association
said.
Cabin
crew are trained to put out flames with extinguishers, cool the battery with
liquid, and isolate the device in fire containment pouches or boxes.
HUNDREDS
ON EACH PLANE
Lithium
metal and lithium-ion batteries are types of non-rechargeable and rechargeable
batteries found in devices such as laptops, mobile phones, tablets, watches,
power banks and electronic cigarettes.
Passengers
on a full flight could be carrying hundreds between them.
Manufacturing
faults or damage, such as a phone being crushed in the gap between plane seats
or exposed to extreme temperatures, can cause them to short circuit and rapidly
overheat.
Heat,
smoke and fire can result, and they can even explode in a "high-energy
expulsion of extremely hot gel and parts of the device acting as
shrapnel", the Flight Safety Foundation says.
In
2016, U.N. aviation agency ICAO banned passenger planes from carrying lithium
batteries as cargo. This followed fatal crashes of a UPS freighter in Dubai in
2010, and an Asiana Airlines cargo plane in South Korea in 2011, after intense
fires broke out in holds carrying such batteries.
Current
aviation standards say power banks and personal electronic devices should
travel in the cabin, not in checked luggage, so any malfunction can be tackled.
A
December 2024 research report by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency
(EASA) found that "non-compliant lithium batteries persistently travel in
hold baggage", and that hold baggage screening need to be improved.
The
industry is exploring new detection methods, including the use of scent
detection dogs.
SKorea's new
lithium battery rules on planes highlight growing risk for aviation
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Do
Something.
If it works, do more of it.
If it doesn't,
do something else.
Franklin
D. Roosevelt.
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